Shane Doan solution to tanking

[Frank the Tank]

Hey Shane, it is proper to give credit to those who originate the idea. Here is Adam Gold at the 2012 MIT Sloan - Sports Analytics Conference.

 

[Jephman]

Another issue I see with this is the scheduling for those bubble teams. If one team is eliminated with two games left and plays, say Toronto and Edmonton, then another team is eliminated two two games left and plays NYR and Washington, well that seems a bit off to me. And what is mathematically eliminated? Is it that the 8th ranked team has X more points than you and you have less than X/2 games left (ie if you won out you wouldn't make it?). Or does it consider that there are games in which either winner hurts a team's chance to make the playoffs, so they are technically eliminated sooner than that? It's just too confusing.

 

[Aceboogie]

Another issue I see with this is the scheduling for those bubble teams. If one team is eliminated with two games left and plays, say Toronto and Edmonton, then another team is eliminated two two games left and plays NYR and Washington, well that seems a bit off to me. And what is mathematically eliminated? Is it that the 8th ranked team has X more points than you and you have less than X/2 games left (ie if you won out you wouldn't make it?). Or does it consider that there are games in which either winner hurts a team's chance to make the playoffs, so they are technically eliminated sooner than that? It's just too confusing.

Its basically the point when you winning every single one of your games will not get you ahead of the team holding last playoff spot if they lost all of theirs. Its really extreme. I think 10-12 games ago Oilers could still make playoffs if they won all theirs and SJ lost all theirs

 

[bone]

wouldnt that make tanking happen at the start of the year?

or do all the teams start accumulating points when any team is eliminated?

in which case you have 9th place gets 1st overall every year?

I don't think so. The appeal of making the playoffs is much greater than getting a first overall. The only time that may be an issue is in the middle of the year where a team's odds are very low, the management maybe would want to start accumulating points ASAP and blow a few games in the middle of the schedule, but that's better than at the end of the schedule.

The other option could be that the points only start accumulating after the first five teams have been eliminated as it usually gets pretty late in the year before that happens. Or they could make it based on percentages, but then it could get awkward as a team playing one game after eliminated could go with a 1.000 winning percentage.

Or take it a step further and basically give a team a ball for every point earned post-elimination and throw the balls into a machine and that is your new lottery. Tanking doesn't guarantee, nor does winning guarantee, but the odds improve if you play to win down the stretch.

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

Simple solution, draft playoff.

Single games, each team plays each other once. Best record (1st OA) --> Worst record.


Makes their season go on a bit later so we don't have a bunch of lazy ass players playing golf. Maybe generate some revenue if there is enough garbage Canadian teams.

 

[Aceboogie]

Simple solution, draft playoff.

Single games, each team plays each other once. Best record (1st OA) --> Worst record.


Makes their season go on a bit later so we don't have a bunch of lazy ass players playing golf. Maybe generate some revenue if there is enough garbage Canadian teams.

No way NHLPA are going to approve. Why would players want to paly more games at end of season ona crappy team just to be blessed with an 18 year old prospect who is probably their replacement

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I don't think so. The appeal of making the playoffs is much greater than getting a first overall. The only time that may be an issue is in the middle of the year where a team's odds are very low, the management maybe would want to start accumulating points ASAP and blow a few games in the middle of the schedule, but that's better than at the end of the schedule.

The other option could be that the points only start accumulating after the first five teams have been eliminated as it usually gets pretty late in the year before that happens. Or they could make it based on percentages, but then it could get awkward as a team playing one game after eliminated could go with a 1.000 winning percentage.

Or take it a step further and basically give a team a ball for every point earned post-elimination and throw the balls into a machine and that is your new lottery. Tanking doesn't guarantee, nor does winning guarantee, but the odds improve if you play to win down the stretch.

It would certainly make things interesting at the end of the year.

I question how much injuries could play a part in how "fair" this is. Or whether hurting the chances of truly terrible teams is really going to be worth it.

We want teams to be more competitive. Is this supposed to incentivize edmonton, Mtl, cbj, wpg, cgy,ottawa? Who were already trying to compete?

Seems like more teams fall apart despite trying vs the two teams who actively tank per year.

 

[joestevens29]

I do find it funny that we are coming up with new solutions when they haven't even given the new format a chance.

 

[redgrant]

Shouldnt this be posted in the Leafs and last year Buffalo forum?

I'm sorry to say this pathetic team is not starting Sparks every night or trading away both their goalies.

They down right suck and thats getting confused with tanking.

 

[AM]

I thought this was going to be, "Have the NHL own your team and get all the calls from the referee".

Barring that, the best way to stop tanking is simple, reward teams for not tanking.

Keep the draft the same as it is and offer points for next season. Say, 4,3,2,2,1,1,1.

Once the first team is eliminated, points start accruing. The team with the most points get the benefit for next season, and so on down the line, but you only get the points next year if you dont make the playoffs.

The team that just misses the playoffs gets 4 points, and so on.

 

[oobga]

Yay for pending UFA's that won't get a shot to be traded to a cup contender because their loser team is concerned about getting more points.

And also teams will still be presented with the motivation to tank to be mathematically eliminated faster. When you know you only have to lose a few more to be eliminated, play some crap goalie until the job is done.

 

[K1984]

Hey Shane, it is proper to give credit to those who originate the idea. Here is Adam Gold at the 2012 MIT Sloan - Sports Analytics Conference.

National media:

Doan is pure class. He wouldn't just take an idea that's already been discussed dozens of times and make it his own!

 

[Staghorn]

Shouldnt this be posted in the Leafs and last year Buffalo forum?

I'm sorry to say this pathetic team is not starting Sparks every night or trading away both their goalies.

They down right suck and thats getting confused with tanking.

Yeah and that brutal team, who has jettisoned all their deadweight and bad contracts is going to finish ahead of this team!!! Be proud Core boys.

Simple fix to tanking - any team who misses the playoffs gets put in 10 draws for the top 10 picks. Period. Any reward method just ends up with a way to jam it up and ruin the intent. Rewarding weak organizations hasn't worked anyways - the same teams have been at or near the bottom for a long time.

 

[shoop]

Yup. And it is a stupid idea. It would just create a new form of tanking. Lose every game until you're mathematically eliminated, then make changes. You could get like a 10 game head start on other teams.

Bingo!!!

It's the nature of the beast.

I honestly don't think the Oilers tanked this year, they just suck.

I think Buffalo purposely tanked last year and karma bit them in the butt.

I really don't think anyone is purposely trying this year, or at least succeeding at tanking. Toronto kinda tried but their players showed some pride.

 

[McGoMcD]

It isn't a great idea, as people said it will just start a different kind of tank. The only true way to get rid of a tank is to continue and make it less and less likely the last place team gets the top pick. If every team out of the playoffs had the same odds of getting the top pick no one would tank.

 

[nexttothemoon]

It isn't a great idea, as people said it will just start a different kind of tank. The only true way to get rid of a tank is to continue and make it less and less likely the last place team gets the top pick. If every team out of the playoffs had the same odds of getting the top pick no one would tank.

Of course the "fear" that people have with that type of even system is that a team like the Kings who just barely missed the playoffs last year would have had a very high chance of landing McDavid.

It likely would stop tanking completely but if the best prospects ended up on teams that were already "pretty good"... the parity would decline in the NHL and if there's one thing they seem to have as a goal in the league head office... it's extreme parity.

 

[The Joker*]

The Oilers don't tank. We just ****ing suck.

 

[KCC]

Any fan who follows the game enough knows EDM isn't tanking. But you'll get people on the main boards who just "throw it out there" to try and bait Oil fans. It's a well known fact that the team just sucks and that the roster needs a major shake up.

As for this idea I Doan like it. I Doan like it one bit.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Sorry if anyone has posted this already, but I thought this was a great idea.

http://www2.tsn.ca/bardown/Story.aspx?Shane+Doan's+foolproof+solution+to+tanking&id=576818

I'm just hearing this idea for the first time (although based on the comments in this thread, it appears that this isn't a novel concept).

I'm all for the idea. I think it's excellent, and I think Edmonton management will finally start to learning what integrity is all about.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Wait how does this help fight tanking?

If your team has a horrific start, like Colmubus this year you're going to have zero motivation to improve until you're guaranteed the top pick several months later.


If anything the current system is encouraging tanking more. If you want to remove tanking and save the TDL, bring back the "can only move up 5 slots rule". The more randomness you introduce and the more you spread around the odds for getting the #1 pick, the more you're going to encourage the teams in the 6-10 spot to be bad and also protect their pick. As they're going to try and increase their somewhat probable odds of winning the lottery but being a little worse.

The current system has made it worse, as the truly bad teams feel they need to protect their "investment". It's not the only a race for the worst, but rather a race not to be second worst. Really what team wants to be in 'Yotes' position last year going into the draft lottery: Knowing that you were second worst but had less that 50% of getting McEichel.


My suggestion would be to go back to the old system, but just make it so the same team can't pick top 3 in back to back years, regardless winning the lottery.

 

[Oilfan2]

Another dumb idea....

Yeah, let's see now. Management/coaching can't motivate professionals to play for pride/home town, etc. but they'll be motivated to win because....the team 'might' get a high draft pick? And this high pick may even replace them?
Yeah, that's going to work well...

 

[shoop]

It isn't a great idea, as people said it will just start a different kind of tank. The only true way to get rid of a tank is to continue and make it less and less likely the last place team gets the top pick. If every team out of the playoffs had the same odds of getting the top pick no one would tank.

In theory you would have teams being perpetually bad under that model. Like a decade out of the playoffs bad.

A more radical solution to end tanking is to increase the number of teams in the playoffs. Assuming there are 32 teams in the league before any changes are implemented. Something crazy like 24 teams. Have a 1 or 3 game play-in round for teams who finish 9th - 24th.

Then make 25th - 32nd a weighted lottery. Eight balls for 32nd one for 25th.

 

[SullivanT]

Wouldn't doans idea benifits team with tough schedule to start and a easy schedule to finish. Also teams in different divisions and conference would havexpect advantage over others

 

[bzur]

Just thought of a different idea.. when the season ends have the teams that dont make the playoffs participate in one more game each (except for 8th last)
1-15 (1 being last place in the league)
2-14, 3-13, etc...

Winner of each game gets the higher draft spot of the two.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I wouldn't mind seeing an even lottery as well as some sort of teams fraction of FA spending affecting the draft order.

So if you sign the best FA'S your ability to build through the draft falls.

Only problem is some FA'S are garbage.

Also have recent playoff appearances affect your position.

Either make it simple reverse order or make so stupid complex that people won't care. "The log of goal differential + playoff appearance units + fraction of FA spending from last 3 years multiplayed by the league displeasure coefficient = draft position"