Rumor: Seth Jones

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Free agency? Sure.

Trading for him? No thanks.

 

[Shaman464]

Hard no, not because I don't think he's great, but both in FA and in trade dude is going to cost way more than he's worth.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Hard no, not because I don't think he's great, but both in FA and in trade dude is going to cost way more than he's worth.

Yeah i doubt that contract will age well.

 

[dragonballgtz]

Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in Dallas

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

And McDavid?

Kenny does still owe us for the AA trade.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

Not to belabor the point but:

Fake news from the liberal coastal media trying to drive Jones' stock down before NYR or LAK buy it up.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

It’s strange how these charts always look bad for players on bad teams and always great for players on good teams.

I don’t think we are anywhere near a model that can accurately account for team situation.

That said, Jones isn’t a great fit for us in a trade. In FA, we should definitely be looking at him.

For the record Wereneski, Gavrikov, and even Savard look worlds better than Jones, so it's not a bad team = bad player thing happening.



Both the Jfresh and EW modesl are created using RAPM technique. There are issues in small samples sizes, but Jones' 3 season sample is not much better than his single year. Jones remind me a lot of OEL circa 2017/2018 where he was still highly regarded, but was in a clear decline.

 

[rkwittem]

So just pray that Seider is a top pairing guy and never acquire any other upgrades unless you get a sweetheart deal or it's a dirt cheap?

You'll never get to where you want without paying some price. Praying for lottery luck hasn't worked out

 

[MBH]

Yup and then playoffs here we come.

Just like Columbus this year.

 

[SirloinUB]

How far off is Hronek for Jones?

 

[Oddbob]

People running down Jones over dumb advanced stats are ridiculous. Shots For and Shots Against is not all that hockey has to offer, which is basically all that most advanced stats seems to take into consideration.

 

[Shortstuff]

How far off is Hronek for Jones?

It seems Jones is being criminally underrated on these forums. Analytics don’t always tell the whole story. He’s a phenomenal defensemen and it would take a significant + onto hronek to snag him for his final year. IMO we would be better off just trying to get him in free agency next year if we were going to pursue him

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

How far off is Hronek for Jones?

No thanks, Zero chance of Jones signing long term in Detroit.

 

[Henkka]

People running down Jones over dumb advanced stats are ridiculous. Shots For and Shots Against is not all that hockey has to offer, which is basically all that most advanced stats seems to take into consideration.

Pretty much this. Columbus also obviously tanked at last season, so it makes his stats look worse.

On last good season, he was very near of Norris discussions, imo, 4th best D of the 2017-18 season.

Has regressed? No - team just lost Panarin and other great players.

 

[jkutswings]

IMO we would be better off just trying to get him in free agency next year if we were going to pursue him

Totally agree. I like where the rebuild is starting to go, so I'm completely open to adding a free agent or two where it makes sense, but now is not the time to unload the capital it would require to land Seth Jones.

Now if things get ugly and go very public that he's definitely leaving town, driving down the asking price? That's different. But for now, there's no ticking clock to give Detroit any leverage (and even if it comes to that, Werenski is 3 years younger, in addition to his rumored penchant for the Wings).

 

[Ricelund]

Spiro has some connections (he’s good friends with Jack Johnson) so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is more than speculation. He called the Bobby Ryan signing last offseason.

 

[Pavels Dog]

For the record Wereneski, Gavrikov, and even Savard look worlds better than Jones, so it's not a bad team = bad player thing happening.



Both the Jfresh and EW modesl are created using RAPM technique. There are issues in small samples sizes, but Jones' 3 season sample is not much better than his single year. Jones remind me a lot of OEL circa 2017/2018 where he was still highly regarded, but was in a clear decline.

So if Garvrikov was putting up "great results" and Seth Jones was awful, why did Jones play 6 minutes more per game?
Just bad coaching that doesn't understand the "RAPM technique"?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

If the fancy stats don't like Jones they are wrong in this scenario.

Guy is a top 10 D-man, top 5 for me when it really matters. I would love to have him, I don't see how we are a reasonable landing spot. Yzerman's biggest mistake in Tampa was passing on Jones, maybe he makes it right and figures out a way to get him to Detroit, I would be ecstatic. Guessing Werenski might happen, Jones is kind of a pipe-dream though if he makes it to UFA that would be a moment to leverage our cap advantage in my opinion.

He did grow up hating the Wings, so that part is a little different on Jones unfortunately. Maybe Werenski is selling him on being on the same pairing in Detroit, we can dream...

 

[Bench]

People running down Jones over dumb advanced stats are ridiculous. Shots For and Shots Against is not all that hockey has to offer, which is basically all that most advanced stats seems to take into consideration.

I recall Brendan Smith being an advanced stats darling while on the Wings. His advocates said once he got away from the oppressive Wings coaching he'd thrive in a larger role.

If the fancy stats don't like Jones they are wrong in this scenario.

It's because they often fail to account for context. It's the opposite of Brendan Smith looking great in his sheltered minutes, Jones is tasked with all the heavy lifting in Columbus and subsequently gets left out to dry.

I know they attempt to account for this in some metrics but it's really impossible to truly isolate a single player in hockey statistically. The stats will always, to some degree, be a product of their respective team.

And in the case of Columbus, it's a team with virtually no offense that's asking Jones to hold down the fort against the top players every single shift. I'm absolutely not surprised his measurable stats look bad on paper. He's being given a losing assignment.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

So if Garvrikov was putting up "great results" and Seth Jones was awful, why did Jones play 6 minutes more per game?
Just bad coaching that doesn't understand the "RAPM technique"?

I mean coaches are not infallible beings, they're human and can make mistakes just like the rest of us. I don't think it's bad coaching more so than a coach having favorites and the player not looking out of place in their role. Jones looks the part of a #1 Dman - he skates well, has good mobility, a good shot, and has all the superlatives that describe a #1 D. The issue I have with him is that when you look at the results when he is on the ice it doesn't line up with what I see, that means I need to re-evaluate my opinion of him. When I look at EW's 2 models (GAR & xGAR), Micah's charts, and Jfresh's cards (he uses Patrick Bacon's model) and they all indicate a player that hasn't been great I tend to gravitate towards that being the truth. If you're interested there's a quick write up on RAPM model's here, with a more in-depth one here.

Perhaps Jones is playing too many minutes and it's impacting his ability to be effective, maybe there are other issues at the micro level that need to reviewed and improved upon and when corrected they'll help correct his issues at the macro level. But when you're talking about paying some big money I wouldn't want to risk it on someone that has been declining and may need a role adjustment.

If the fancy stats don't like Jones they are wrong in this scenario.

Guy is a top 10 D-man, top 5 for me when it really matters. I would love to have him, I don't see how we are a reasonable landing spot. Yzerman's biggest mistake in Tampa was passing on Jones, maybe he makes it right and figures out a way to get him to Detroit, I would be ecstatic. Guessing Werenski might happen, Jones is kind of a pipe-dream though if he makes it to UFA that would be a moment to leverage our cap advantage in my opinion.

He did grow up hating the Wings, so that part is a little different on Jones unfortunately. Maybe Werenski is selling him on being on the same pairing in Detroit, we can dream...

It's not just one model that doesn't like him, it's 3 or 4 of the main public models. When there is that level of consensus about a player I think there should be some re-evaluation of that player. The player isn't inherently bad, but they haven't been generating positive results.

I don't understand how you can look at his declining numbers, both fancy and counting, and still suggest he is not only a #1 D, but a top 5 dman at that. He has that upside, but he hasn't played at that level since 2017-2018 which is a full 3 seasons ago. Would you be okay paying him 9-11M for 7 years? That's an enormous risk for someone that's current claim to fame is essentially being on the ice for a long time.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I mean coaches are not infallible beings, they're human and can make mistakes just like the rest of us. I don't think it's bad coaching more so than a coach having favorites and the player not looking out of place in their role. Jones looks the part of a #1 Dman - he skates well, has good mobility, a good shot, and has all the superlatives that describe a #1 D. The issue I have with him is that when you look at the results when he is on the ice it doesn't line up with what I see, that means I need to re-evaluate my opinion of him. When I look at EW's 2 models (GAR & xGAR), Micah's charts, and Jfresh's cards (he uses Patrick Bacon's model) and they all indicate a player that hasn't been great I tend to gravitate towards that being the truth. If you're interested there's a quick write up on RAPM model's here, with a more in-depth one here.

Perhaps Jones is playing too many minutes and it's impacting his ability to be effective, maybe there are other issues at the micro level that need to reviewed and improved upon and when corrected they'll help correct his issues at the macro level. But when you're talking about paying some big money I wouldn't want to risk it on someone that has been declining and may need a role adjustment.

I think there are many issues with advanced stats in hockey and I don't trust any "model" just because it's described with a lot of words that are difficult to understand and muddle the fact that hockey isn't an easy game to predict and there are far too many variables to effectively isolate one player's impact or lack thereof.
Do I believe that Devon Toews suddenly turned into an elite #1-caliber d-man because of a Jfresh chart on twitter? Nah. Do I believe Seth Jones is in decline and done as a top pairing player because of a Jfresh chart? Nah.

I wouldn't break the bank for Jones, and I certainly wouldn't give up massive assets for him in a trade. But these types of fancy stats should never be presented as undisputable fact without any room for error, as I think many of these advanced stat twitter people do.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I like Jones, and I'm not necessarily some massive analytics disciple. That said, I do think the article in question ("Is Seth Jones actually elite?") is a pretty good read. It makes a pretty robust argument why elements of Jones' game impress during the eye test but don't necessarily translate to good outcomes.

Jones really impressed me in playoff series' against teams like Tampa and Toronto, so I'm not going to toss my opinion of him in the trash over one article. But it did make me think, "Hmm, maybe some of what impresses me when watching defensemen doesn't translate to success as much as I initially thought." To me, that's a sign of solid analytic journalism.

All this said there's probably a dozen or more teams that Jones would prefer to sign with than the Red Wings, so I'm not sure how much discussion he merits for us. You've gotta believe that Werenski goes on the market sooner than later though.

A lot of folks might hate this, but assuming we pick #6-8 this year I'd gladly trade our 1st for Werenski 1 for 1. I know there's speculation that he forces early UFA and walks here in two years time, but I'll believe it when I see it. I'd have zero issue moving a pick in the back half of this top ten for a top pairing defenseman with probably 10 years of good hockey left in him.

 

[better Red than Dead]

Spiro has some connections (he’s good friends with Jack Johnson) so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is more than speculation. He called the Bobby Ryan signing last offseason.

It’s been said from almost the day he was drafted that he’d come back to Detroit. Just too many ties to the area. This is why I was surprised when I mentioned it in another thread people thought it was fantasy. It’s just a fact that when he hits free agency, the Red Wings will be the favorites to land him.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

Would you be okay paying him 9-11M for 7 years?

I don't know about $9 million -- with that much term, I'd want more of a team-friendly number. If you tie up too much money in one or two guys, you end up with a top-heavy disaster like the Kings or the Blackhawks.

$8 million for 7 years? Sure, I'd do that. If C-bus could renegotiate his contract to that first, then offer him for trade, I bet quite a few teams would offer up players and prospects with dazzling Fancy Stats.

But all of this is academic, we'd be getting Jones for 1 year, at a bargain price of $5.2 million, but our team will still be terrible because our centers consist of one good second line center, two or three OK fourth-liners, and a few AHL level guys. 1 year of Jones isn't really worth anything to us if we're not challenging for a playoff spot that year.

Re. Zach Werenski: I'd love to have him too. But we'll see if Werenski continues to put up his usual numbers without Jones as a line mate. I'm betting he won't.

 

[newfy]

Jones is significantly overrated imo.

Hes a guy you watch play and hes a stud so I dont really care about the analytics on him. Despite those analytics, hes a guy with a couple top ten norris finishes and a 2nd team all star by 25 years old. Hes also hitting an age that I would consider entering his prime. If the wings couldland him as a UFA at his age and talent level it would be a huge win