Seth Jones and his future (Sportsnet reports he intends to test free agency)

[CBJWerenski8]

If Jones wants anywhere from 7.5-9.5 million per season you give it to him. Don’t even think about it

If it’s 10 million plus you have to really think about the future. Can you win paying Jones 1.5-2 million over market price? Can you build around him? Can you pay werenski as well? It’s a hard call. I’d probably sell him off at anything over 10 and launch a full rebuild (trade Laine, Werenski).

In the end I don’t imagine it will matter much. I’m going to assume jones is going to want to test the market. And we can’t hold the cards this time.

 

[EspenK]

If Jones wants anywhere from 7.5-9.5 million per season you give it to him. Don’t even think about it

If it’s 10 million plus you have to really think about the future. Can you win paying Jones 1.5-2 million over market price? Can you build around him? Can you pay werenski as well? It’s a hard call. I’d probably sell him off at anything over 10 and launch a full rebuild (trade Laine, Werenski).

In the end I don’t imagine it will matter much. I’m going to assume jones is going to want to test the market. And we can’t hold the cards this time.

I tend to agree with your last paragraph. But quibbling between 9.5 & 10 is a bit picky if you think Jones is worth keeping.

 

[thebus88]

You give him essentially whatever money he wants, the ‘C’, and an adequate top pairing defensive partner that he doesn’t have to “babysit” in the defensive zone.

Watch his offensive numbers, “advanced metrics”, and perceived value/impact return to where it was at one time, and where it should be.

Look at the ‘top NHL defenseman’ list and look at the rosters/players those guys play with in comparison to Jones. Then remember how Jones “looked” when playing with Panarin or with a “solid” roster. Now imagine all those guys

I also think there’s a unique situation where Jones is actually affected negatively -at the very least statistically- (which is where many people’s opinions/perceptions seem to originate) by Werenski, both offensively and defensively.

I don’t really think the ability/impact on defense can be compared and Jones is routinely tasked with covering for Werenski after mistakes with the puck, lazy efforts, or combinations of both.

Offensively, while different players/tools, Jones should still be seen as the superior overall player. Many times on the PP and 5-on-5, Werenski is given “offensive looks” over Jones that clearly has an impact on Jones’ offensive statistics and how people view him.

imo

 

[DJA]

Look at the ‘top NHL defenseman’ list and look at the rosters/players those guys play with in comparison to Jones. Then remember how Jones “looked” when playing with Panarin or with a “solid” roster. Now imagine all those guys

Now tell me how we get the next Panarin on this roster

You're right, it's definitely only imagination

 

[thebus88]

Now tell me how we get the next Panarin on this roster

You're right, it's definitely only imagination

I was editing to say imagine all the other guys in the league feeding passes to Cam f***ing Atkinson over the last few years.

 

[MoeBartoli]

While the current UFA year often is the benchmark agents and clubs study, look back to last year at Pietrangelo’s contract - $8.8M. They’re similar players and each would have their backers to claim one is the better player. With this being a flat-cap year, IMO it’s a good benchmark.

If using this year....I don’t see Hamilton getting more than Piertangelo and am thinking he’ll come in around $8M or just over. Jones will get a bit more and I think $9M is the number though the Columbus currency conversion rate may be $9.5M

 

[LoneFunyan]

You give him essentially whatever money he wants, the ‘C’, and an adequate top pairing defensive partner that he doesn’t have to “babysit” in the defensive zone.

Who is the partner? Not being snarky - I'm legit asking.

Would it be Gavrikov? He's known as being a defensive D-man, but is he a legitimate top-pairing player? He's probably the closest to this description.

The remaining LD are (I think): Carlsson, Del Zotto, Harrington, Kukan, Lehtonen. None of those seem to match the criteria.

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

Who is the partner? Not being snarky - I'm legit asking.

Would it be Gavrikov? He's known as being a defensive D-man, but is he a legitimate top-pairing player? He's probably the closest to this description.

The remaining LD are (I think): Carlsson, Del Zotto, Harrington, Kukan, Lehtonen. None of those seem to match the criteria.

Bus is referring to Werenski as the one Jones has been asked to babysit.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I do think Jones would benefit more from playing with a Ryan Murray type stay at home guy rather than Werenski. I want Jones up in the play and for whatever reason the past few years he’s been apprehensive on doing that. Likely due to an increased defensive workload with Werenski but still this pairing isn’t new. I don’t know why he’s more timid. I wouldn’t call it “babysitting” either, maybe when Werenski was younger, but not so much now

We can easily bring them back together if the pairs get stale or the team is behind in the third or something. But if we can get another solid stay at home D (ideally RHD to pair with Werenski and no not Savard) and let Gavrikov move up with Jones I think we’d benefit well.

 

[majormajor]

While the current UFA year often is the benchmark agents and clubs study, look back to last year at Pietrangelo’s contract - $8.8M. They’re similar players and each would have their backers to claim one is the better player. With this being a flat-cap year, IMO it’s a good benchmark.

If using this year....I don’t see Hamilton getting more than Piertangelo and am thinking he’ll come in around $8M or just over. Jones will get a bit more and I think $9M is the number though the Columbus currency conversion rate may be $9.5M

I think those values will vary team by team, and that most will prefer Hamilton to Jones.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

When Jones was really good, he was paired with Werenski. When his play was not at that previous elite level, he was paired with Werenski.

Seems like we should look elsewhere for reasons why his play has dipped.

That said, I think it's time to do what CBJW suggests above and split them up, playing Gavrikov (who I'm not as high on as most) with Jones. Presuming Jones is around.

 

[cslebn]

How much is the ankle lingering I wonder.

 

[majormajor]

I do think Jones would benefit more from playing with a Ryan Murray type stay at home guy rather than Werenski. I want Jones up in the play and for whatever reason the past few years he’s been apprehensive on doing that. Likely due to an increased defensive workload with Werenski but still this pairing isn’t new. I don’t know why he’s more timid. I wouldn’t call it “babysitting” either, maybe when Werenski was younger, but not so much now

We can easily bring them back together if the pairs get stale or the team is behind in the third or something. But if we can get another solid stay at home D (ideally RHD to pair with Werenski and no not Savard) and let Gavrikov move up with Jones I think we’d benefit well.

The system changed drastically from 2017 to 2019. We always saw that Jones was naturally cautious, but it was built into the old safe is death that our D would be on the attack. Now that jumping up is the exception rather than the rule, Seth's inborn caution keeps him back.

It's not Werenski in particular that has pushed Jones back, they were partners in Seth's best seasons and that's when Werenski was a liability at times. But there's no doubt that having a stay at home partner would push Seth to become more active.

That's why I've been spamming

Gavrikov - Jones
Werenski - Peeke

for about two years. Peeke was mostly a careful defender coming out of college, so I'm hoping they can get him back to that sort of game. The RHD pickings in UFA are not good.

 

[DarkandStormy]

You give him essentially whatever money he wants, the ‘C’, and an adequate top pairing defensive partner that he doesn’t have to “babysit” in the defensive zone.

Watch his offensive numbers, “advanced metrics”, and perceived value/impact return to where it was at one time, and where it should be.

Look at the ‘top NHL defenseman’ list and look at the rosters/players those guys play with in comparison to Jones. Then remember how Jones “looked” when playing with Panarin or with a “solid” roster. Now imagine all those guys

I also think there’s a unique situation where Jones is actually affected negatively -at the very least statistically- (which is where many people’s opinions/perceptions seem to originate) by Werenski, both offensively and defensively.

I don’t really think the ability/impact on defense can be compared and Jones is routinely tasked with covering for Werenski after mistakes with the puck, lazy efforts, or combinations of both.

Offensively, while different players/tools, Jones should still be seen as the superior overall player. Many times on the PP and 5-on-5, Werenski is given “offensive looks” over Jones that clearly has an impact on Jones’ offensive statistics and how people view him.

imo

In the post-Bob era, Jones has played over 810 minutes at 5v5 without Werenski on the ice. His numbers, quite frankly, are terrible. Worse than just throwing out any other D pair out there. Werenski's numbers remain elevated away from Jones and they meet in the middle when paired together.

If Jones was as good as many people think he is, this wouldn't be the case. He peaked in '17-'18 and his numbers have declined in each season since.

 

[MoeBartoli]

When Jones was really good, he was paired with Werenski. When his play was not at that previous elite level, he was paired with Werenski.

Seems like we should look elsewhere for reasons why his play has dipped.

That said, I think it's time to do what CBJW suggests above and split them up, playing Gavrikov (who I'm not as high on as most) with Jones. Presuming Jones is around.

I’m thinking the next coach will split them. I was never sure if it was Shaw or Torts (or both) who were adamant on keeping them paired.

 

[LoneFunyan]

Bus is referring to Werenski as the one Jones has been asked to babysit.

Right, and he's split up Jones and Z and give Jones "an adequate top pairing defensive partner that he doesn’t have to 'babysit' in the defensive zone" so my question is: who is that player?

If that's the way you get max performance out of Jones, we have to talk about who that player is. Are they already on the team/in the system, or do we need to go get someone else to play with Jones? Is this like saying "if we want the best of Jones, we also have to go get __fill in the blank adequate top pairing defensive partner__ too" which now spins up into another acquisition we have to make for a significant player.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Right, and he's split up Jones and Z and give Jones "an adequate top pairing defensive partner that he doesn’t have to 'babysit' in the defensive zone" so my question is: who is that player?

If that's the way you get max performance out of Jones, we have to talk about who that player is. Are they already on the team/in the system, or do we need to go get someone else to play with Jones? Is this like saying "if we want the best of Jones, we also have to go get __fill in the blank adequate top pairing defensive partner__ too" which now spins up into another acquisition we have to make for a significant player.

Indeed and if that player isn't in the system it becomes even more paramount to acquire them than the elusive center-for-Laine.

 

[majormajor]

Right, and he's split up Jones and Z and give Jones "an adequate top pairing defensive partner that he doesn’t have to 'babysit' in the defensive zone" so my question is: who is that player?

If that's the way you get max performance out of Jones, we have to talk about who that player is. Are they already on the team/in the system, or do we need to go get someone else to play with Jones? Is this like saying "if we want the best of Jones, we also have to go get __fill in the blank adequate top pairing defensive partner__ too" which now spins up into another acquisition we have to make for a significant player.

This is "good stay at home LD" we're talking about, that's not a particularly hard role to fill.

Plenty of us wouldn't mind trying Gavrikov more in that role.

And our old pal Ryan Murray is a free agent and about to take a paycut.

Murray - Jones
Werenski - x

Getting the spot filled to the right of Werenski might be trickier.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

This is "good stay at home LD" we're talking about, that's not a particularly hard role to fill.

Plenty of us wouldn't mind trying Gavrikov more in that role.

And our old pal Ryan Murray is a free agent and about to take a paycut.

Murray - Jones
Werenski - x

Getting the spot filled to the right of Werenski might be trickier.

If memory serves, Murray has played both sides, despite handedness.

I might be tempted, if Murray could be brought back, to play Gav with Jones and Murray with Z.

That said, I don't think Murray is coming back, although I'd be in favor of it.

 

[majormajor]

If memory serves, Murray has played both sides, despite handedness.

I might be tempted, if Murray could be brought back, to play Gav with Jones and Murray with Z.

That said, I don't think Murray is coming back, although I'd be in favor of it.

Murray rarely played the right side. In the Murray and Nuti pairing it was always Nuti that switched to the right side.

I don't think Murray would particularly want to come to Columbus, all else equal, but if you tell him we need him with Seth and give him more than others offer, that might do the trick. Sometimes players want to feel needed most of all.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Murray rarely played the right side. In the Murray and Nuti pairing it was always Nuti that switched to the right side.

I don't think Murray would particularly want to come to Columbus, all else equal, but if you tell him we need him with Seth and give him more than others offer, that might do the trick. Sometimes players want to feel needed most of all.

No quibble with your reasoning but between the possibility we're not interested in him and the inverse - that he's not interested in us - I'm calling it unlikely.

I'll take your word on the handedness/side thing for Murray, but am kinda hoping someone else's memory matches mine!

 

[JacketFanInFL]

The new meme in Columbus. This organization needs a mentality shift so bad. So afraid of all our elite talent leaving.
Management capitulates by wearing down the players, media capitulates by framing articles about the city and constantly talking about players leaving.

 

[thebus88]

I think those values will vary team by team, and that most will prefer Hamilton to Jones.

I think you are wrong.

Jones > Hamilton

 

[thebus88]

View attachment 434945

In the post-Bob era, Jones has played over 810 minutes at 5v5 without Werenski on the ice. His numbers, quite frankly, are terrible. Worse than just throwing out any other D pair out there. Werenski's numbers remain elevated away from Jones and they meet in the middle when paired together.

If Jones was as good as many people think he is, this wouldn't be the case. He peaked in '17-'18 and his numbers have declined in each season since.

Answer these questions…

What is Jones primarily asked to do and what opposing players/lines is he playing against when away from Werenski? Is it any different when playing with Werenski??

What is Werenski primarily asked to do and what opposing players/lines is he matched up against when away from Jones?? What is the difference from when he is paired with Jones??

It’s not rocket science, but, IT IS more complex than the .33s and .89s….

 

[LJ7]

I'm curious to see Jones play under another coaching staff to see if his habit of hauling the puck into the O zone himself and getting nothing out of it and having a forward have to cover for it back was scheme designed or if it's just who Jones is.

I think he's good but I don't think losing him is the doomsday scenario some may expect it to be. His play and the numbers surrounding it give me Ewing theory vibes. Again it could be coaching decision stuff that held him back but either way if nothing changes about his game then idk if I'd be more devastated by him leaving or getting signed to a massive deal.