Seth Jones and his future (Sportsnet reports he intends to test free agency)

[majormajor]

I think he's good but I don't think losing him is the doomsday scenario some may expect it to be. His play and the numbers surrounding it give me Ewing theory vibes. Again it could be coaching decision stuff that held him back but either way if nothing changes about his game then idk if I'd be more devastated by him leaving or getting signed to a massive deal.

Yeah I sometimes wonder about whether we might be just fine losing Jones - is losing him really the death knell for this roster, since Jones would arguably be poor value on a $70m contract? But then I remember that we have almost nothing as far as right-handed D without him. So the only times I end up feeling sanguine about losing Jones is if I imagine us getting Hamilton. Trading Jones for assets and signing Hamilton is nothing but a win. The other RHD options are slim. Larsson is likely re-signed after expansion, maybe Hamilton too. Barrie is a great offensive guy, but for whatever reason that feels even more far fetched than Hamilton coming to Columbus. Barrie probably just wants to play on a super charged offense.

Hamilton is an odd duck for a hockey player. Call me crazy but if there's one guy that could be wooed by a meeting at the zoo (and a $70m offer), it might be Hamilton.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Answer these questions…

What is Jones primarily asked to do and what opposing players/lines is he playing against when away from Werenski? Is it any different when playing with Werenski??

What is Werenski primarily asked to do and what opposing players/lines is he matched up against when away from Jones?? What is the difference from when he is paired with Jones??

It’s not rocket science, but, IT IS more complex than the .33s and .89s….

Can *YOU* answer those questions?

You said:

Watch his offensive numbers, “advanced metrics”, and perceived value/impact return to where it was at one time, and where it should be.

And now you're poo-pooing the metrics that show he isn't very good without Werenski. I'm sorry you don't like the data - the numbers you said would improve without having to "babysit" Werenski - but they are what they are. We have plenty of evidence of Jones playing with Gavrikov, Kukan, Del Zotto, Lehtonen, etc...he's simply not good with them.

 

[KJ Dangler]

The system changed drastically from 2017 to 2019. We always saw that Jones was naturally cautious, but it was built into the old safe is death that our D would be on the attack. Now that jumping up is the exception rather than the rule, Seth's inborn caution keeps him back.

It's not Werenski in particular that has pushed Jones back, they were partners in Seth's best seasons and that's when Werenski was a liability at times. But there's no doubt that having a stay at home partner would push Seth to become more active.

That's why I've been spamming

Gavrikov - Jones
Werenski - Peeke

for about two years. Peeke was mostly a careful defender coming out of college, so I'm hoping they can get him back to that sort of game. The RHD pickings in UFA are not good.

Yup, Peeke is going to be a very good one. Also, lets not forget that MZD was playing top line minutes at the end of the season, and played pretty well. I just wonder if we are going to lose Kukan. From a plus minus.. he was one of our best defenders.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

When Jones was really good, he was paired with Werenski. When his play was not at that previous elite level, he was paired with Werenski.

Seems like we should look elsewhere for reasons why his play has dipped.

That said, I think it's time to do what CBJW suggests above and split them up, playing Gavrikov (who I'm not as high on as most) with Jones. Presuming Jones is around.

I actually think getting someone else to play with him, not Gavrikov, would be best. But I don’t see us being able to find a top 4 LHD and RHD in the same offseason. One might be pushing it too.

Also penciling in Peeke as a sure fire NHLer next year is being nice to Peeke. I do have to wonder if his growth is permanently stalled or if it’s just a bad two years. As of now I have him at 3rd pairing RHD but it’s pretty clear the team isn’t very high on him.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I actually think getting someone else to play with him, not Gavrikov, would be best. But I don’t see us being able to find a top 4 LHD and RHD in the same offseason. One might be pushing it too.

Also penciling in Peeke as a sure fire NHLer next year is being nice to Peeke. I do have to wonder if his growth is permanently stalled or if it’s just a bad two years. As of now I have him at 3rd pairing RHD but it’s pretty clear the team isn’t very high on him.

Yeah I think a full season in Cleveland with some injury call ups is best for Peeke. But this isn’t the ‘building’ thread so I tried to stick as much to Jones-related as possible.

 

[majormajor]

We have plenty of evidence of Jones playing with Gavrikov, Kukan, Del Zotto, Lehtonen, etc...he's simply not good with them.

You've been saying this for months now and it's simply not true at all. Yes collectively Jones has done worse away from Werenski but he's actually done better with Gavrikov than with Werenski. They were the only one of Jones' three pairings to outscore the opposition, and they were also the only one above 50% in xG.

You can check it out with the moneypuck xG model or the naturalstattrick xG model, they sometimes vary a lot but come to the same result here. At least this year Gav-Jones > Z-Jones > MDZ-Jones.

 

[majormajor]

I actually think getting someone else to play with him, not Gavrikov, would be best. But I don’t see us being able to find a top 4 LHD and RHD in the same offseason. One might be pushing it too.

Also penciling in Peeke as a sure fire NHLer next year is being nice to Peeke. I do have to wonder if his growth is permanently stalled or if it’s just a bad two years. As of now I have him at 3rd pairing RHD but it’s pretty clear the team isn’t very high on him.

Personally I think Gavrikov is getting shorted here. See the stats above, he and Jones got results together.

And FWIW Peeke had good results last year by every measure. So it's really just one bad year.

 

[Cowumbus]

thoughts?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

View attachment 435065
thoughts?

Bad team. Bad year. Bad system. Hardest matchups and high TOI. This is why you value the numbers but understand the context to why they are that way, which you do by watching. No concern to me.

 

[Cowumbus]

Bad team. Bad year. Bad system. Hardest matchups and high TOI. This is why you value the numbers but understand the context to why they are that way, which you do by watching. No concern to me.

Ah the ol Jack Johnson excuse.

Adam Fox says hi, same with Artem Zub.

 

[LJ7]

Bad team. Bad year. Bad system. Hardest matchups and high TOI. This is why you value the numbers but understand the context to why they are that way, which you do by watching. No concern to me.

Agreed on all fronts but it's a concern to me.

 

[NotWendell]

Seth Jones may very well be overrated, but not undervalued. He's one of ours and I'd like to keep him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Ah the ol Jack Johnson excuse.

Adam Fox says hi, same with Artem Zub.

Jack Johnson was pretty good here, yeah.

Adam Fox is a great player and a top pairing guy on a great offensive team. Flawed defensively. But since his offensive numbers are good nobody cares.

Artem Zub exists. He’s decent. And that team was also better than us offensively. So not sure your point.

I’ll take Seth Jones over Fox in the short term (not long) and over Zub every day of the week thank you very much.

 

[DarkandStormy]

You've been saying this for months now and it's simply not true at all. Yes collectively Jones has done worse away from Werenski but he's actually done better with Gavrikov than with Werenski. They were the only one of Jones' three pairings to outscore the opposition, and they were also the only one above 50% in xG.

You can check it out with the moneypuck xG model or the naturalstattrick xG model, they sometimes vary a lot but come to the same result here. At least this year Gav-Jones > Z-Jones > MDZ-Jones.

Well, the point being made was that Jones's analytics numbers would "return" to being very good if he didn't have to "babysit" Werenski. We have plenty of evidence of Jones playing without Werenski as his D partner.

They're ok-ish with Gavrikov. Nothing stellar. Better numbers with Werenski, really across the board except for xG%.

Anyway, if we're here arguing Seth Jones needs a better D partner, he's not "elite." Which brings me back to my point that he's not as good as some people (who are mostly CBJ fans) make him out to be.

 

[majormajor]

Well, the point being made was that Jones's analytics numbers would "return" to being very good if he didn't have to "babysit" Werenski. We have plenty of evidence of Jones playing without Werenski as his D partner.

View attachment 435086

They're ok-ish with Gavrikov. Nothing stellar. Better numbers with Werenski, really across the board except for xG%.

Anyway, if we're here arguing Seth Jones needs a better D partner, he's not "elite." Which brings me back to my point that he's not as good as some people (who are mostly CBJ fans) make him out to be.

So what you're doing here is you're comparing a 2019-20 heavy sample of 8-3 (when the team was decent) with a 2021 heavy sample of 44-3 (when the team was bad). And 44-3 still come out good but it's unfair because they're on a worse team. Just look one year at a time to help control for team quality.

This year, 44-3 was better than 8-3 in terms of both outscoring the opposition and xG%.

I know that's just one piece of the argument and I agree with some of your broader skepticism of Jones, but the fact is that he did play well with one stay at home D we tried him with, so it does seem like an important point to get on record.

 

[majormajor]

View attachment 435065
thoughts?

I'm wondering if there is something very misleading or wrong about this.

The 2nd percentile overall WAR is just about through the floor, and no I don't think that is the player we watched. He had a down year but if he was that bad he wouldn't be in the NHL for long and the Jackets would be better off without him. And that simply wasn't the case this year. The team didn't have better results without him.

I presume JFresh's model is private so I can't look under the hood with it and find which underlying stats have been causing the ugly numbers. But I can see that the 4th percentile defensive contribution is driving a lot (most?) of it along with a lower shooting percentage. And I know from other WAR models that the defensive ratings are composite stats built off of a range of stats, especially including relative against numbers (CA/60Rel, GA/60Rel, xGA/60Rel, etc...). That's usually most of it.

But Seth's relative against numbers weren't bad at all. The team goals against rate was actually lower with him on the ice. Somebody figure this out! @Viqsi

 

[Byrral]

Seth is somewhere in between his terrible advance stats numbers the past couple years and the top 5 defensive player some would have you believe he is.

I think he's important to the team and they need him to sign. The problem is where he slots in and how it effects Werenski's slot.

I'd like to see him slot closer to Ekblad's numbers but that ain't getting it done. But I do not think he should have a higher cap hit than Alex Pietrangelo.

So $8.5 x 8.

Anything much more than that and I move him.

 

[cslebn]

I actually think getting someone else to play with him, not Gavrikov, would be best. But I don’t see us being able to find a top 4 LHD and RHD in the same offseason. One might be pushing it too.

Also penciling in Peeke as a sure fire NHLer next year is being nice to Peeke. I do have to wonder if his growth is permanently stalled or if it’s just a bad two years. As of now I have him at 3rd pairing RHD but it’s pretty clear the team isn’t very high on him.

There was a time when Kukan looked like he'd be a good partner. That time was not this season.

 

[KJ Dangler]

There was a time when Kukan looked like he'd be a good partner. That time was not this season.

I don’t get the Kukan disrespect around here . In a year where we couldn’t score , were brutal defensively , he was -3 in 35 games . I know plus minus isn’t everything , but on a team that struggles to score 2 most nights …

 

[EDM]

Sure, let’s get rid of Jones. Same with Z. Get rid of the talent. After all we have Tex, Foudy & Bemstrum. And of course we have super GM Jarmo. Why do we need talent now when Jarmo will draft 4 more Russians who will be available in 2025. Let’s go ave the lowest possible roster expense so that we will have lots of money & cap space to extend offers to UFA’s who would rather be dead than in Columbus let’s mistreat the guys we have. After all so many players are fighting for the chance to play with this franchise.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I don’t get the Kukan disrespect around here . In a year where we couldn’t score , were brutal defensively , he was -3 in 35 games . I know plus minus isn’t everything , but on a team that struggles to score 2 most nights …

He took a significant step back and got beat out by Lehtonen, MDZ, and at times Harrington, Carlsson, and Peeke. He has ability but is still nothing more than a third pairing guy. Shouldn’t get any consideration to playing with Jones, imo.

 

[DarkandStormy]

So what you're doing here is you're comparing a 2019-20 heavy sample of 8-3 (when the team was decent) with a 2021 heavy sample of 44-3 (when the team was bad). And 44-3 still come out good but it's unfair because they're on a worse team. Just look one year at a time to help control for team quality.

This year, 44-3 was better than 8-3 in terms of both outscoring the opposition and xG%.

I know that's just one piece of the argument and I agree with some of your broader skepticism of Jones, but the fact is that he did play well with one stay at home D we tried him with, so it does seem like an important point to get on record.

I can isolate it to just '20-'21 but the sample size isn't as large. It's not much different. Greater than 50% xG and G%, but under 50% in the other shot share metrics. With 141 minutes together at 5v5, there could be some other noise/randomness in those stats. I think an argument could be made 3 and 8 were better together, but also 44-3. Then again, we're not talking about earth shattering numbers with either. It was a bad season all around.

 

[cslebn]

I don’t get the Kukan disrespect around here . In a year where we couldn’t score , were brutal defensively , he was -3 in 35 games . I know plus minus isn’t everything , but on a team that struggles to score 2 most nights …

Last year, he looked ready to grow into the part. This year he didn't. Where his positioning and first pass had been great, he fumbled the puck a lot and was sloppier this year. Now we see if he can recover. Peeke is in the same boat.

Really these kids just need to play with more confidence. Bayreuther had a really great showing at the end there I thought

 

[cslebn]

He took a significant step back and got beat out by Lehtonen, MDZ, and at times Harrington, Carlsson, and Peeke. He has ability but is still nothing more than a third pairing guy. Shouldn’t get any consideration to playing with Jones, imo.

Two of those names, I agree.

 

[majormajor]

Two of those names, I agree.

Yeah Kukan had a couple memorably bad games but other than that I thought he was better than Harry/Carlsson/Peeke, Torts' lineup choices be damned.