Value of: Sergachev to New Jersey

[JoemAvs]

Doesn't fit the narrative. Because reasons.

Reasons being NTCs...
Which you guys seem all too willing to ignore.....
Sure teams like Buffalo, New Jersey and even Ottawa would jump on the chance of getting these guys for free or even gaining an asset as well...

But why on earth would Gourde or Killorn waive to go there? Going from a cupcontender in Florida to a bottom feeder and losing quite a bit of money in the process due to the increased tax doesn't sound like fun to me....
Killorn has a 16 team no trade list and from the videos I have seen about hockey returning in Tampa, he seems to really like it there. So yeah. If he wants to, he probably will find a way to make it impossible to trade him because there won't be more than 16 teams that are legit options to acquire him...

The Venn diagramm of teams that would be interested, are willing to spend the capspace on adding another middle 6 player as well as not being on the list of the players is way smaller than you guys make it out to be...

I don't believe for a second that the likes of Cirelli, Sergachev or Cernak will have to get traded for 60 cents on the dollar. Thats BS...
Only way those guys get traded if they ask for too much money and the Lightning are getting a good offer for them that makes it a better option than having to pay a crapload to move these other guys..

But I also don't believe it will be as easy to move these guys as you seem to believe. Maybe there is a team like Dallas who is willing to do something like that. But there won't be many and they will have a ton of options to improve their team....

 

[The Macho King]

Tampa could also buy out someone. Less ideal but Johnson/Palat would still save us against the cap.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Killorn is the easy one. Lets just say for argument sake the cost is a 2nd. I would 100 out of a 100 give a 2 and 4.45m to Killorn than pay Hoffman 4 years at 6.25m and pray the wife doesn't go loopy.

What Gourde/Johnson/Palat trades look like I don't know. TBL depth forward values are brutal to figure out. See JT Miller. But to say they won't happen is wishful thinking.

Edit do not forget Johnson/Gourde real salaries is less than cap salary. TJ for example 5m cap and 3.75 actual cash next year. If you think zero owners are interested in real life 1.25m cash breaks from the cap then take the blinders off.

Doesn't fit the narrative. Because reasons.

There is no narrative. I acknowledged that my hypothetical (TB's hand being forced if unable to move two of Killorn/Gourde/Palat/Johnson) was a fringe possibility. Highly unlikely. Which means I generally agree that there are markets for these players. I doubt TB ends up having to move Sergachev at all.

I'd easily pay that 2nd rounder for Killorn, by the way. Cernak is interesting too

 

[Nico Hischier]

A 21 year old forward with 11 points in 19 AHL games last year isn't enticing at all. We are loaded to the gills with similar forwards in Barre-Boulet, Katchouk, Raddysh, Volkov and Joseph. Boqvist does absolutely nothing for us and wouldn't be of interest. I also don't know how his value has jumped that much to where he's almost on the same level as Smith?

Idk what you think of Foote that you guys gave us but I think boqvist is a more talented prospect but that’s my opinion

 

[abo9]

You're underestimating how little leverage (zero) the Lightning would have in a situation where they have to move Sergachev.

It's a fringe possibility, and I said as much, so it really isn't worth discussing. I'm sure Tampa will convince one or two of Killorn/Johnson/Gourde/Palat to waive, and they'll be on their merry way, Sergachev in tow.

Their leverage would quite literally be all the teams lining up to obtain Sergachev. Not too hard to comprehend

 

[HoseEmDown]

Idk what you think of Foote that you guys gave us but I think boqvist is a more talented prospect but that’s my opinion

They aren’t really similar players so it's hard to compare. Foote won't ever be a huge point producer but if he's a 20 goal scorer with his physical play that's much better than Boqvist should be unless Boqvist somehow becomes a 60 point player. I don't think Boqvist will be anymore than your run of the mill middle 6 winger who puts up 35-45 points.

 

[Nico Hischier]

They aren’t really similar players so it's hard to compare. Foote won't ever be a huge point producer but if he's a 20 goal scorer with his physical play that's much better than Boqvist should be unless Boqvist somehow becomes a 60 point player. I don't think Boqvist will be anymore than your run of the mill middle 6 winger who puts up 35-45 points.

so maybe he will have a career similar to killorn/gourde/Johnson/palat

 

[TBF1972]

Really, little leverage? You think there wouldn't be 30 teams in the league bidding against each other to get a player like Sergachev? You serious right now? Or you think all 30 teams are going to get together on a Zoom call and be like "We hear by begin the meeting of NHL GM's Alliance against the Tampa Bay Lightning. We have all deemed worthy, that we shall all low ball the Lightning. May the best team win! We will now open the floor to all questions."

No there wouldn't be 30 teams bidding. Half of the league is capped out and would have to make moves to open up cap space. But with everybody looking to free cap the number of true suitors would be much smaller than thirty. But you are right, that only one other serious competitor would raise the price.

 

[Guitpik]

Of all the offer sheet possibilities thrown around this is the one I love the most. 4m for Cernak you add a D for your 2nd pairing, good enough to keep in ED, and you only give up a 2.

Yeah, I wish there Kings could get him back... They're supplying players so over the league, dammit!

 

[HoseEmDown]

so maybe he will have a career similar to killorn/gourde/Johnson/palat

Seeing as how Gourde and Palat have had 60+ point seasons and Johnson a 70+ i don't see how their similar at all. Maybe he'll be similar to Killorn point wise but I don't know if he has the two way game that Killorn does, so a 40 point player without a good two way game isn't very interesting.

 

[TBF1972]

You want none of them for free, Gourde playing on our fourth line was be in your top 10 scorers for your team. Hell all of them would be. But sure. Cool story.

So the logic is no one will want to spend money, and that contracts will get cheaper. But the concept of a 0.5PPG, signed at 4.45m aav for another 3 years is bad value? Not only that, acknowledging that contracts will go down, for some reason that logic gets thrown out for Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak?

Plenty of teams can use a winger like Killorn. Plenty of teams can use a winger/center like Johnson. Plenty of teams could use a versatile defensive winger like Palat. Plenty of teams could use Gourde. They aren't garbage like everyone tries to make it out to be. Gourde is having lower statistical season because he's spent the majority of the season playing with Paquette and Maroon on the fourth line. Mostly because of our forward depth and Coops plan to try to spread our offense.

Even if the argument becomes "well the current flat cap makes it harder to move" we just have to move 1 of Johnson, Gourde, or Palat. Killorn is foregone conclusion of him being going. We don't even need full relieve from any of the 3. Realistically retaining a million on one of them wouldn't be the end of the world.

Average AAV will go down this off-season. But this won't help Tampa. They can't retain all three RFA, fill out the roster and not move any of the contracts. This is simply no option. 75 million dollars are tied up in 15 contracts. They are forced to move at least two roster player without taking back much salary and the only rich contracts, they can move without restriction are Kucherov, Point or Vasilevskiy. So their hands are tied in a lot of ways and it could really hurt.
They already spent two first round picks at the deadline for value contracts. But both run only one additional season, so they will be in the exact same position next off-season. Tough decisions ahead in Tampa.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Average AAV will go down this off-season. But this won't help Tampa. They can't retain all three RFA, fill out the roster and not move any of the contracts. This is simply no option. 75 million dollars are tied up in 15 contracts. They are forced to move at least two roster player without taking back much salary and the only rich contracts, they can move without restriction are Kucherov, Point or Vasilevskiy. So their hands are tied in a lot of ways and it could really hurt.
They already spent two first round picks at the deadline for value contracts. But both run only one additional season, so they will be in the exact same position next off-season. Tough decisions ahead in Tampa.

The point I am making is that people think the price that Tampa will have to sign Sergachev or the offer sheets that are going to be thrown at them are high. In the 6 Million range to "price out" Tampa. But in the same breathe say the FA signing prices are going to go down. We might reach a point where trading only 1 of our NTC forwards and Paquette could get us enough space.

People in the same breathe are talking about why would an NTC player want to leave Tampa, but then disregard why would one of our RFA's. Acknowledging contracts going down, why would a talented RFA want to sign long term when their value on the market is at it's lowest. Will we lose roster players, sure. Will those roster players be Cirelli or Sergachev? No.

 

[TBF1972]

The point I am making is that people think the price that Tampa will have to sign Sergachev or the offer sheets that are going to be thrown at them are high. In the 6 Million range to "price out" Tampa. But in the same breathe say the FA signing prices are going to go down. We might reach a point where trading only 1 of our NTC forwards and Paquette could get us enough space.

People in the same breathe are talking about why would an NTC player want to leave Tampa, but then disregard why would one of our RFA's. Acknowledging contracts going down, why would a talented RFA want to sign long term when their value on the market is at it's lowest. Will we lose roster players, sure. Will those roster players be Cirelli or Sergachev? No.

Moving Paquette is not your solution. If you move e.g. Killorn and Paquette you don't save 6 million in cap. It's more like 4 million, as you have to replace them. Even with a 20 man active roster you would have only 11.5 million to sign the three RFAs and 4 other roster players. A minimum contract is 700k. So you will have less than 9 million for Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev. I don't think, this is feasible.

 

[Smitty426]

If Tampa were to win this year, does that change up the game plan for them? Conversely do they bulk up for more?
Thinking about the Hawks team once they won they had a bit of a "yard sale". Just wondering, not implying.

 

[Smitty426]

I think o know the answer to this already but if a player under contract is traded out of Tampa to a place like NJ.

I have been told that you pay taxes where you play. So half the season in FL and then in each state your taxed accordingly. Its still a big deal but its not your whole salary. Players accountants must have quite a bill if it is in fact this way.

Could see Sergachev to Jersey for 7th overall + prospects (maybe even Smith?) for example if he asks for a bit too much money.

I want Serge but not for 7OA and Smith! Although I don't think that is what it will take. But we could argue that for 4, almost 5 pages here on HF! ; )

 

[jgimp]

Sergachev would look great on lots of bluelines. Why would Tampa want to trade him?

Not saying they would or should but they are in Cap hell and as of right now cannot sign their 3 RFAs and anyone they would rather move, have NMCs (Palat, Gourde etc) or most cannot absorb the cap hit that would come with them (Killorn)
I see one of Cirelli, Sergs or Cernak being moved and it makes sense to maximize a return and and offer sheet that they wouldn’t be able to match would limit that. A trade targeting ELC roster players and picks would.
It’s simply unlikely that they can free enough cap to sign all three.

 

[ole ole]

Batting my head against the wall. Trading Palat would not have gotten Serge. Understood. But you absolutely could have traded Palat for picks and then traded those picks for a d-man Vegas picked in the ED. Vegas was looking to get every first they could acquire. You could have kept Drouin, lose Palat, and acquired a no 4-man. This was safe and no one would say boo.

Yzerman didn't do that. He saw Drouin whining about being sent down. He saw the huge defensive flaws. He was available for 2 years and Yzerman was waiting on the right trade. When the opportunity came up for Serge, Yzerman jumped. I am telling you Tampa stations all year round were spreading Drouin rumors. It was clear Yzerman and the organization disliked him. They NEVER NEVER NEVER THOUGHT Drouin would be a 80 point player.

Link please on...They NEVER NEVER NEVER THOUGHT Drouin would be a 80 point player or is that just another one of your opinion.

 

[Jerzey Devil]

I have been told that you pay taxes where you play. So half the season in FL and then in each state your taxed accordingly. Its still a big deal but its not your whole salary. Players accountants must have quite a bill if it is in fact this way.


I want Serge but not for 7OA and Smith! Although I don't think that is what it will take. But we could argue that for 4, almost 5 pages here on HF! ; )

Man that’s confusing. So I guess basically their salary per year would be broken down to games played in states with a state tax? I guess it would be an end of the year type of thing and the player’s or team’s accountants would have to figure out everywhere they actually played. I’m assuming they have to subtract or withhold games they missed from injuries too.

I never knew it was a per game taxation. I figured since they were paid on a yearly basis they were just taxed based on who pays them (where they’re paid).

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Moving Paquette is not your solution. If you move e.g. Killorn and Paquette you don't save 6 million in cap. It's more like 4 million, as you have to replace them. Even with a 20 man active roster you would have only 11.5 million to sign the three RFAs and 4 other roster players. A minimum contract is 700k. So you will have less than 9 million for Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev. I don't think, this is feasible.

That's not what I said is it? I said moving 1 NTC player and Paquette could be enough to sign the RFA's. If it wasn't clear enough, sorry. If the assumption that contracts are indeed coming down, and pretty much every single RFA in Tampa signing a bridge deal, plus people don't want to bring this up because right now its not a hot topic but the tax advantage. It is completely reasonable to assume we could sign all three major RFA's for under $11M.

Sergachev: 2Y/$4M AAV, top load as much as possible.
Cirelli: 2Y/3.5M AAV, top load it as much as possible,
Cernak: 2Y/2M AAV.

People will say "well at those prices why wouldn't they take offer sheets?" Or "another team will come in and off all them twice that!" The point remains that everyone acknowledges but doesn't in these cases because, well I don't know:

Why would they want to leave a cup contender?
Why would they sign long term contracts at their lowest value due to the cap?
Why would they leave sunny income tax free Florida?
And league wide, over half the league is in a Cap Problem?

It stands more to reason that Tampa will be able to sign at least 2 of the 3 RFA's, at bare minimum. Cernak realistically being the odd man out. But it is also pretty reasonable to think the Cernak would also fall in line and sign cheap too.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I have been told that you pay taxes where you play. So half the season in FL and then in each state your taxed accordingly. Its still a big deal but its not your whole salary. Players accountants must have quite a bill if it is in fact this way.

Man that’s confusing. So I guess basically their salary per year would be broken down to games played in states with a state tax? I guess it would be an end of the year type of thing and the player’s or team’s accountants would have to figure out everywhere they actually played. I’m assuming they have to subtract or withhold games they missed from injuries too.

I never knew it was a per game taxation. I figured since they were paid on a yearly basis they were just taxed based on who pays them (where they’re paid).

So a player is only paying the jock tax on their salary in the city they are playing. Any signing bonus is taxed in the city of residence. So even if a player plays for LA, but their main residence is in Nevada, the signing bonus will be taxed in Nevada that has no state income tax.

For Example:

Steven Stamkos - $8.5M AAV
Signing Bonus 2019/2020: $8.5M
Actual Salary 2019/2020: $1M

$8.5M Signing Bonus would be Taxed at 37% (The Federal Rate)
$500,000 of Actual Salary would be taxed at 37% (Home Games)
$500,000 of Actual Salary would be jock taxed at each locations local rate (Away Games)

Players in No Income Tax States, should always want to take a signing bonus heavy contract. Obviously your skill and worth should warrant it. Teams that have no state income tax: Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Seattle, Tampa, Vegas.

 

[My3Sons]

I expect TB to trade Paquette and Killorn. They likely don’t get much in return. They won’t care. I expect they’ll find a landing spot for one of the NTC guys. They likely have to sweeten the deal to move one of the NTC guys. Whoever waives probably does for one or two teams and TB just wants the salary gone. At that point they can probably keep two of the RFAs.

 

[Smitty426]

Man that’s confusing. So I guess basically their salary per year would be broken down to games played in states with a state tax? I guess it would be an end of the year type of thing and the player’s or team’s accountants would have to figure out everywhere they actually played. I’m assuming they have to subtract or withhold games they missed from injuries too.

I never knew it was a per game taxation. I figured since they were paid on a yearly basis they were just taxed based on who pays them (where they’re paid).

So a player is only paying the jock tax on their salary in the city they are playing. Any signing bonus is taxed in the city of residence. So even if a player plays for LA, but their main residence is in Nevada, the signing bonus will be taxed in Nevada that has no state income tax.

For Example:

Steven Stamkos - $8.5M AAV
Signing Bonus 2019/2020: $8.5M
Actual Salary 2019/2020: $1M

$8.5M Signing Bonus would be Taxed at 37% (The Federal Rate)
$500,000 of Actual Salary would be taxed at 37% (Home Games)
$500,000 of Actual Salary would be jock taxed at each locations local rate (Away Games)

Players in No Income Tax States, should always want to take a signing bonus heavy contract. Obviously your skill and worth should warrant it. Teams that have no state income tax: Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Seattle, Tampa, Vegas.

Let me see if I can find the post

 

[TBF1972]

That's not what I said is it? I said moving 1 NTC player and Paquette could be enough to sign the RFA's. If it wasn't clear enough, sorry. If the assumption that contracts are indeed coming down, and pretty much every single RFA in Tampa signing a bridge deal, plus people don't want to bring this up because right now its not a hot topic but the tax advantage. It is completely reasonable to assume we could sign all three major RFA's for under $11M.

Sergachev: 2Y/$4M AAV, top load as much as possible.
Cirelli: 2Y/3.5M AAV, top load it as much as possible,
Cernak: 2Y/2M AAV.

People will say "well at those prices why wouldn't they take offer sheets?" Or "another team will come in and off all them twice that!" The point remains that everyone acknowledges but doesn't in these cases because, well I don't know:

Why would they want to leave a cup contender?
Why would they sign long term contracts at their lowest value due to the cap?
Why would they leave sunny income tax free Florida?
And league wide, over half the league is in a Cap Problem?

It stands more to reason that Tampa will be able to sign at least 2 of the 3 RFA's, at bare minimum. Cernak realistically being the odd man out. But it is also pretty reasonable to think the Cernak would also fall in line and sign cheap too.

In the post you quote I calculated the cap space for the scenario, that Paquette and Killorn are traded without taking more than minimum contracts (700k) back, run a 20 man roster and there won't be the 9.5 million AAV available for your bridge deal proposal. So I think they need to move at least one of Gourde, Palat and Johnson, which all have a full NTC. For those players some of the same questions are valid:
Why would they want to leave a cup contender?
Why would they leave sunny income tax free Florida?
And league wide, over half the league is in a Cap Problem, so why would they lift their NTC to play for one of the bottom feeders with Cap?

And the next summer won't be any easier, if the cap stays flat, as Tampa has to extent or replace their cheapest forwards Coleman and Goodrow. This situation is dynamic and I don't see any simple solution. It will take a lot of work to keep all the players Tampa fans don't want to trade.

 

[Halla]

I'd offer to take Gourde as well and give them ARZ or VAN 1st + McLeod + Mueller

thats probably not close unless its pick 10 and there is someone there they really like (Sanderson/Perfetti/Lundell?)

Pick 7 is probably the better starter

 

[Flyer lurker]

Link please on...They NEVER NEVER NEVER THOUGHT Drouin would be a 80 point player or is that just another one of your opinion.

How many players who you thought were going to be 80 point players were rumored to be in trades 18 months straight. I'm all ears. Not the we know Johnny Hockey might leave in 2 years but we don't want him on our team variety.

Lets revisit facts. Cooper and Drouin just did not get along at all. One of them had to go. Name any of the 4 sports and the great player wins over the coach.Do you understand why Cooper won? Because Y never saw Drouin as a great player. If you wants facts when Drouin was given a full year to play with TBL, TBL missed the playoffs w/ Bishop and Vazy in the nets. Of course Stamkos out didn't help but Drouin;s lack of 2 way play doesn't help either. Drouin linemates ie Killorn and Johnson went down in 16-17. Facts TBL number 1 goal was team defense adding Girardi, Serge, and later on Ryan Mc. Which forward did they trade to improve defense. Wow I'm stunned it was Drouin. Because he has such upside. From other teams perspective sure, but that ain't the reason. Its because he suxed at 200 feet play and Cooper knew this in 2016 and why he got sent down. It is 3 years later and people have still not figured out that Y to improve team traded Drouin off the team for better 2 way play.

Look at 16-17 forward listing from TBL. Its pretty radical NONE of them have been moved. (this offseason due to cap some have to go) but Drouin went HMMM.......
JOhnson
Killorn
Point
Kuch
Stamkos
Palat

All TBL had to do was play if safe if Drouin if was going to be an 80 point player was trade Palat or Johnson or Point (who was only 40 point player at the time) not add Girardi and enjoy Drouin's fruits. Heck they missed the playoffs and had excuse to fire Cooper and start a freash with Drouin. You really think TBL fan when yippee Drouin's cap space went to Girardi?

It is 3 years later and people still don't get why Drouin was traded. But keep thinking Y thought he was trading a potential all star in division if it helps your pride.