TSN: Seravalli: Rangers significant cap concerns (bonus cushion 7,5%).

[Lindberg Cheese]

TL;DR - I feel like the tweet in OP hinted at significantly ominous clouds. But am I doing the following correctly? It basically says NYR are a little tight, but overall OK. Am I on the right track?

(Sorry for the wall of text and manual nerd processing of the situation)

==================
Count down from $81.5 MM (Confusing as hell)

Typically a team has a cap upper limit. In this case it's 81.5 MM. Bonuses up to 7.5% (6.1 MM) don't affect that upper limit or cap hit, but are real cash to the players on ELC earning those bonuses?

The moment that you exceed a potential bonus of 7.5% (not earned, but potential), it erodes your upper limit.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Per this, there's 7.2 MM in bonuses for roster players. Rangers expecting to add another 2.85 in bonuses for 1OA = 10.1 ish. 3 non roster have a 850K bonus structure. Assuming worst case scenario of the 4 ELC players added to the roster with highest bonuses (850 + 850 +850 + 500), Total bonus = 13.112 MM bonuses = 7.013 bonus overage.

This overage effectively means the NYR ceiling goes from 81.5 to 74.5. Which already sucks, but they also have dead cap of non-roster players of $12.994 MM in 2020-2021 ($4.044 MM in 2021-2022) which means an effective roster cap of $61.5 MM.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So with 61.5 ceiling to technically use on a full roster, they currently are sitting at $45.5MM of contracts. This means $16.0 MM remain and they still need to add, 1G, 2D, 5F worth of players and those on ELC have a cap hit higher of $925K or more?

==========
Count up towards $81.5 MM (Easier to understand)

- NYR currently has 8 forwards under contract, 4 dmen under contract and 1G under contract with cap hits of $44.5 MM.
- They have $13 MM in dead cap = $57.5
- They have performance bonuses overage for 2020-2021 of $1.1 MM of current roster players that are expected to play = $58.6MM

- They need to add 5 forwards, 3 dmen and 1G.

Play along conservative minimums

5 Forwards
- 1st OA: Effective cap hit due to bonuses = $2.85 MM + $925K ELC = $3.8 MM Cap hit = $62.4
- Barron: ECH: $850K + $925K = $1.8 MM = $64.2MM
- Kravstov: ECH: $850K + $925K = $1.8 MM = $66.0 MM
- Andersson: ECH: $850K + $895K = $1.8MM = $67.8 MM
- Richards: ECH: $500K + $925K = 1.4MM = $69.2 MM

3 Dmen
- Miller: ECH: $925K + $300K = $1.3 MM = $70.5 MM
- Rykov: ECH: $925K + $0 = $925K = $71.4 MM
- Reunanen: ECH: $809K + $133K = $942K = $72.3 MM

1G
- N/A for a sec.

This means that with the above players slotted in, rangers are at $72.3 MM ($9.2 MM remain)
- Assume $4MM for goalie? (Georgiev or someone else) = $76.3 MM ($5.2MM remain)
- Roster is now full. Remainder of non-roster players stay non-roster (minor leagues etc.)

NYR now have confusion about what to do about Georgiev (kept at $4 MM or whatever, traded and another goalie at $4MM), ADA, Guiseppe and Strome.

No one talking about Guiseppe so let's say he's gone. There's $5.2MM remaining, so let's say we allocate $2.6MM for each of Strome and ADA. To slot them in, we pull off an ELC with effective cap hit.
- Strome max ish = $2.6 MM + ECH 1.8 MM of player sent down = $4.4MM? (Previous $3.1MM cap hit)
- ADA max ish = $2.6 MM + $940K = $3.5 MM? (Previous $925K ELC)

- $5.2MM + 1.8 MM ECH forward + $940K ECH dman = $7.9 MM cap space to upgrade two ELC either with ADA + Strome or other combos.


====

Am I doing this wrong because when counting up, it seems like NYR isn't doing bad at all it's something to be aware but not terrifying yet as the tweet implied. The worst case scenario is choosing one of ADA and Strome to ripped off on but it's not horrific. I mean, in theory you could bury an ELC and sign a vet at league minimum to boost more cap available for ADA and Strome.

Additionally, in 2021-2022 season, the dead cap space is reduced by $8.9 MM (and they also lose a piece to Seattle) which obviously gives NYR a huge, huge bit of breathing room.

NYR are doing OK and not technically in Cap hell just icing a roster, right?
Albeit, even when Chicago was in Cap hell, I don't think they ran as many ELC on the roster... But NYR are rebuilding vs contending, so it's not technically cap hell?

====
But when counting down, it's confusing as hell and it seems like it's ridiculously tight because of the moving remaining cap due to the cap cushion thing. I think it's easier to take ELC players and look at them as effective cap hit.

Unabomber, dat you?

 

[Hire Sather]

We haven't qualifed Strome yet, clearly we aren't worried about losing him.

No Strome on the roster solves any issue of trading anyone else.

Strome is likely someone NYR wouldn't sign long term anyway. I'd like to have him next year, but I'm not trading someone else at discounted value to do it.

 

[GAGLine]

TL;DR - I feel like the tweet in OP hinted at significantly ominous clouds. But am I doing the following correctly? It basically says NYR are a little tight, but overall OK. Am I on the right track?

Let's do this the easy way.

This is Igor Shesterkin's contract. He has a 925,000 cap hit and a 3,775,000 AAV.

If you add up all of the cap hits for the players on the roster, plus all of the buyout penalties and retained amounts, the total cannot exceed 81.5 mil.

If you add up all of the AAV amounts for the players on the roster, plus all of the buyout penalties and retained amounts, the total cannot exceed 87.6125 mil (81.5 x 107.5%).

 

[Fig]

Unabomber, dat you?

No idea who that is.

But I do terrorize my own Flames brethren with walls of texts thinking crazy things all the time.

Let's do this the easy way.

View attachment 370518

This is Igor Shesterkin's contract. He has a 925,000 cap hit and a 3,775,000 AAV.

If you add up all of the cap hits for the players on the roster, plus all of the buyout penalties and retained amounts, the total cannot exceed 81.5 mil.

If you add up all of the AAV amounts for the players on the roster, plus all of the buyout penalties and retained amounts, the total cannot exceed 87.6125 mil (81.5 x 107.5%).

Agree with the two statements. Those are the boundaries that NYR has to play in.

What I'm asking though is after hashing it out, NYR won't break past those limits very easily and worst case scenario, NYR take a minor loss on one of ADA or Strome and this whole cap cushion concern evaporates in 2021-2022 and beyond?

 

[GAGLine]

Agree with the two statements. Those are the boundaries that NYR has to play in.

What I'm asking though is after hashing it out, NYR won't break past those limits very easily and worst case scenario, NYR take a minor loss on one of ADA or Strome and this whole cap cushion concern evaporates in 2021-2022 and beyond?

Shesterkin, Chytil, Gauthier and Lindgren will no longer have bonuses, but we may add players who do, like Kravtsov, Miller, Barron, etc.

For sure, Laf, Fox and Kakko will account for 6.35 in bonuses in 2021-22, which will be a little over the limit. Smith will be gone (4.35) and buyout penalties will drop by 9 mil, so the likelihood is that we will have to account for the bonus overage, but shouldn't have an issue doing so, depending on how much Shesty and Buch get on their new deals (assuming both are still here).

 

[Richter35]

TL;DR - I feel like the tweet in OP hinted at significantly ominous clouds. But am I doing the following correctly? It basically says NYR are a little tight, but overall OK. Am I on the right track?

(Sorry for the wall of text and manual nerd processing of the situation)

==================
Count down from $81.5 MM (Confusing as hell)

Typically a team has a cap upper limit. In this case it's 81.5 MM. Bonuses up to 7.5% (6.1 MM) don't affect that upper limit or cap hit, but are real cash to the players on ELC earning those bonuses?

The moment that you exceed a potential bonus of 7.5% (not earned, but potential), it erodes your upper limit.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Per this, there's 7.2 MM in bonuses for roster players. Rangers expecting to add another 2.85 in bonuses for 1OA = 10.1 ish. 3 non roster have a 850K bonus structure. Assuming worst case scenario of the 4 ELC players added to the roster with highest bonuses (850 + 850 +850 + 500), Total bonus = 13.112 MM bonuses = 7.013 bonus overage.

This overage effectively means the NYR ceiling goes from 81.5 to 74.5. Which already sucks, but they also have dead cap of non-roster players of $12.994 MM in 2020-2021 ($4.044 MM in 2021-2022) which means an effective roster cap of $61.5 MM.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So with 61.5 ceiling to technically use on a full roster, they currently are sitting at $45.5MM of contracts. This means $16.0 MM remain and they still need to add, 1G, 2D, 5F worth of players and those on ELC have a cap hit higher of $925K or more?

==========
Count up towards $81.5 MM (Easier to understand)

- NYR currently has 8 forwards under contract, 4 dmen under contract and 1G under contract with cap hits of $44.5 MM.
- They have $13 MM in dead cap = $57.5
- They have performance bonuses overage for 2020-2021 of $1.1 MM of current roster players that are expected to play = $58.6MM

- They need to add 5 forwards, 3 dmen and 1G.

Play along conservative minimums

5 Forwards
- 1st OA: Effective cap hit due to bonuses = $2.85 MM + $925K ELC = $3.8 MM Cap hit = $62.4
- Barron: ECH: $850K + $925K = $1.8 MM = $64.2MM
- Kravstov: ECH: $850K + $925K = $1.8 MM = $66.0 MM
- Andersson: ECH: $850K + $895K = $1.8MM = $67.8 MM
- Richards: ECH: $500K + $925K = 1.4MM = $69.2 MM

3 Dmen
- Miller: ECH: $925K + $300K = $1.3 MM = $70.5 MM
- Rykov: ECH: $925K + $0 = $925K = $71.4 MM
- Reunanen: ECH: $809K + $133K = $942K = $72.3 MM

1G
- N/A for a sec.

This means that with the above players slotted in, rangers are at $72.3 MM ($9.2 MM remain)
- Assume $4MM for goalie? (Georgiev or someone else) = $76.3 MM ($5.2MM remain)
- Roster is now full. Remainder of non-roster players stay non-roster (minor leagues etc.)

NYR now have confusion about what to do about Georgiev (kept at $4 MM or whatever, traded and another goalie at $4MM), ADA, Guiseppe and Strome.

No one talking about Guiseppe so let's say he's gone. There's $5.2MM remaining, so let's say we allocate $2.6MM for each of Strome and ADA. To slot them in, we pull off an ELC with effective cap hit.
- Strome max ish = $2.6 MM + ECH 1.8 MM of player sent down = $4.4MM? (Previous $3.1MM cap hit)
- ADA max ish = $2.6 MM + $940K = $3.5 MM? (Previous $925K ELC)

- $5.2MM + 1.8 MM ECH forward + $940K ECH dman = $7.9 MM cap space to upgrade two ELC either with ADA + Strome or other combos.


====

Am I doing this wrong because when counting up, it seems like NYR isn't doing bad at all it's something to be aware but not terrifying yet as the tweet implied. The worst case scenario is choosing one of ADA and Strome to ripped off on but it's not horrific. I mean, in theory you could bury an ELC and sign a vet at league minimum to boost more cap available for ADA and Strome.

Additionally, in 2021-2022 season, the dead cap space is reduced by $8.9 MM (and they also lose a piece to Seattle) which obviously gives NYR a huge, huge bit of breathing room.

NYR are doing OK and not technically in Cap hell just icing a roster, right?
Albeit, even when Chicago was in Cap hell, I don't think they ran as many ELC on the roster... But NYR are rebuilding vs contending, so it's not technically cap hell?

====
But when counting down, it's confusing as hell and it seems like it's ridiculously tight because of the moving remaining cap due to the cap cushion thing. I think it's easier to take ELC players and look at them as effective cap hit.

you count the guys that make the team (cap goes into effect that day). so in the likely scenario of all the ELC guys you mentioned making the team minus Miller, Rykov, Reunanen and Barron you have ~$10M in bonus, so 4M need to have space accounted for until they can't be reached (the rest of which may roll over into next year's cap). So Rangers' cap ceiling is $77.5.

I think unless they know Strome takes $4.5 and ADA takes under $5 they might have to dump Strome. I don't think Geo gets over a $2M cap. he's good but doesn't have good stats. NYR needs a #6/7 D at 1M each (thinking geezers like Hainsey). hard to put it all together at 77.5M

 

[BrockLobster]

Rangers had Fox, Panarin and Lafreniere land in their laps. I’m looking for the smallest violin possible.

And dont forget the team that for some reason took an 5.7mil AHL dman off their hands for a draft pick.

 

[FireGorton]

Not a real problem for the Rangers. They always get their way in trades. Someone will take on any unwanteds or unneededs and pay to do so.

Ah yes the Mac/Miller trade where Rangers got Howden(4th liner),Hajek(7 Dman),4th round pick, late first and late 2nd while Tampa won the cup with that trade being a big reason. Eric Staal trade giving up two 2nds and prospect. Zuc trade getting middle 2nd and late 3rd when he had better season than Brendan Smith or Eric Staal the years they were traded. Traded top 40 pick and early 3rd for Brendan Smith. Rangers always get their way

 

[AB13]

We should just trade our fourth best defenceman, Jacob Trouba, who makes 8 million.

 

[bernmeister]

SO the only way out of this now is to trade ELC guys who could earn bonuses for Draft picks or older players? Great.

I just looked, not a lot of guys you can move to reduce that bonus money. In fact, I don't think you can really move any of them. The big guys seem to be:

Kakko 2.6M
Fox: 850K
Shesterkin: 2.85M
+ a bunch of guys making 300K

I know the performance bonuses are going to start cost real money, but that is a hell of a pickle to be in. Anyone who makes significant bonuses is just too valuable (and cheap) to trade.

Kravstov and Barron are 850K each. Are they playing next year? Are they depth? If so, given that they'll cost 1.7M on the cap instead of 900K, it might be an option to move one of them for a veteran who only makes 800K.

Strome! Please come back to Edmonton! Our team was Pejorative Slured to trade you.

Here's the problem.

Right now, as far as the Rangers are concerned, unless they move someone like Fox, Kakko or Shesterkin, rookie bonus money = real money. Whoever they pick #1 is going to play in the NHL and cost around 3.7M in cap hit. Not 950K in cap hit like they normally do. With that in mind, the Rangers have 22M in cap space (23M - the 1.1M from the tweet)

Assuming Lafreniere takes up an additional 3.7M, that leaves them with 18M. They still need 4 forwards, 3 defensemen, and a goalie after that. If Strome costs 5M and so does Deangelo (which is completely reasonable). That leaves then with 8 million to sign Gregoriev and 5 other players. Again, not THAT hard.

Unfortunately as a result of everything above, they can't use a lot of their entry level contracts (rookies) to fill the roster. Normally team use rookies because they're cheap. Unfortunately a lot of the Ranger rookies will count for 1.6M against the cap instead of 800-900K, making it much harder to fill out the roster.


This is making it hard to fill out the roster without moving one of DeAngelo or Strome.

Right now they have around 23,1 m, minus around 1,1m in above bonus cushion so 22m. Add almost 3m more in above bonus cushion with Lafreniere and its 19 minus almost 1m in salary=18m. 18 million with 9 forwards , 4 defensemen and 1 goalie signed. Deangelo 5,5m+Strome4,5-5m=10ish minus 2-3 million for Georgiev. 5 million left for two defensemen, 3-4 forwards.


If Kravtsov and K'Andre Miller for example gets in the lineup their bonuses decreases the cap ceiling even further so not much to work with for Gorton in that sense. One issues is that this will continue to be a problem as Kakko, Kravtsov and Fox has two years left, Lafreniere, Miller and Lundkvist etc have 3 years left on elc.
Shesterkin only has one year left but he is so damn good that he will likely make tons of money on his next deal so that doesnt help much. Getting rid of almost 9 million in buy-out salary will help though prior to next season.

It just means that Gorton cant make any significant moves or signings without moving some of the rfa's if he doesnt wanna be patient and ride it out with all the rfa guys for the next 2-3 years.

It is in the natural order of things that youth ultimately is served.
It's simple.
We keep most of the youth, deal most of the vets.

We need to look at shedding Strome and Smith.
Strome by taking less than what he is worth, Smith by paying the least # that makes sense.

We also MUST MUST MUST move Geo w/high value and take on a guy like Howard for league min to 1m, or we take our chances and showcase Huska while Wall/Lindbom marinate.

That leaves Deangelo and Buch. They too MUST go, but other moves if made mean it can be later than sooner.

 

[bernmeister]

We should just trade our fourth best defenceman, Jacob Trouba, who makes 8 million.

That is easier said than done for a combo of reasons.

 

[AB13]

That is easier said than done for a combo of reasons.

He is still rated very highly in the hockey world, which he really should not be. I think plenty of teams would want him.

 

[Richter35]

It is in the natural order of things that youth ultimately is served.
It's simple.
We keep most of the youth, deal most of the vets.

We need to look at shedding Strome and Smith.
Strome by taking less than what he is worth, Smith by paying the least # that makes sense.

We also MUST MUST MUST move Geo w/high value and take on a guy like Howard for league min to 1m, or we take our chances and showcase Huska while Wall/Lindbom marinate.

That leaves Deangelo and Buch. They too MUST go, but other moves if made mean it can be later than sooner.

Can you post a lineup after making all the moves you propose? Who is filling in all these spots lol

 

[bernmeister]

He is still rated very highly in the hockey world, which he really should not be. I think plenty of teams would want him.

He is and that's not what I meant.
mo on this later

 

[aufheben]

We should just trade our fourth best defenceman, Jacob Trouba, who makes 8 million.

Ryan Lindgren is not better than Jacob Trouba.

Lindgren is solid, great PKer, and a badass but 90% of his job is basically “give the puck to Adam Fox”.

 

[DutchNYR]

Can you post a lineup after making all the moves you propose? Who is filling in all these spots lol

Boo Nieves as #1C and start working from there.

 

[Anthony5967]

Rangers had Fox, Panarin and Lafreniere land in their laps. I’m looking for the smallest violin possible.

The karma from the hockey Gods was telling, though. Any team that is considered non-playoff needs lottery luck to be handed solid picks. Teams that ice embarrassing, AHL trash, some on purpose, get what they deserve, too. Don't tank and get rewarded. Toews, Kane, landed in Chicago's lap, too? Kopitar, Doughty? Crosby, Malkin?

 

[bernmeister]

Can you post a lineup after making all the moves you propose? Who is filling in all these spots lol

right now no, but also depends on what you mean by moves.

In other threads I have propped, among others Chytil + Trouba + Geo + +++ for Seider and extensive 2nds +.

I'll see if I can make it simple.
Kravtsov can play C
Kakko-Krav-Panarin

Trade Buch for futures. Mo expensive Hall but only 1 yr at 7; would consider cheaper options to Hall
Kreider-Zib-Hall/alternate

long term expect Barron to be C
so
LaF-Barron-Gauthier

punishing checking line, speed + size
Lemieux-Nieves-Gettinger

something like that.

 

[Anthony5967]

right now no, but also depends on what you mean by moves.

In other threads I have propped, among others Chytil + Trouba + Geo + +++ for Seider and extensive 2nds +.

I'll see if I can make it simple.
Kravtsov can play C
Kakko-Krav-Panarin

Trade Buch for futures. Mo expensive Hall but only 1 yr at 7; would consider cheaper options to Hall
Kreider-Zib-Hall/alternate

long term expect Barron to be C
so
LaF-Barron-Gauthier

punishing checking line, speed + size
Lemieux-Nieves-Gettinger

something like that.

You're higher on Nieves than anybody I've known haha

 

[SJinNewJersey]

I guess this will shut down that Eichel to the Rangers thread.

 

[SML2]

Ryan Lindgren is not better than Jacob Trouba.

Lindgren is solid, great PKer, and a badass but 90% of his job is basically “give the puck to Adam Fox”.

That plan worked pretty well for Jeff Beukeboom.

 

[bernmeister]

You're higher on Nieves than anybody I've known haha

ha ha
but factually true he is def excellent, big, skates very well, if they went w/a pure checking line he and Lemieux and a punishing Gettinger would be real deal.

 

[mouser]

I don't think it's a big deal. Yes the Rangers cap will be reduced by $3-4m. However the team almost certainly doesn't want to have any earned bonuses carry over to next season. So realistically they should be planning for about $3m in actual earned bonuses this year (most of the "A" bonuses for their best ELC's). Which just happens to be about the same amount as the reduction in cap space due to maxing out the performance bonus cushion.

 

[AB13]

Ryan Lindgren is not better than Jacob Trouba.

Lindgren is solid, great PKer, and a badass but 90% of his job is basically “give the puck to Adam Fox”.

Jacob Trouba is a direct defensive liability at times who makes braindead decisions and takes unneccessary penalties. He did not offer much creativity and puck moving this season, and defensively he was below average in terms of postioning, decision making and stick checking.

He is rated frustratingly high by hockey fans who think hard hits and a booming slapshot make you a great defenceman. I think Lindgren would do better than Trouba given the same role. Trouba for 8 million is one of the worst contracts in the league but people don’t realise it.

 

[The don godfather]

Yep that trouba contract is gonna sink the rangers. They wont be able to sign all these players. By the time they figure it out trade bodies out for picks.