TSN: Seravalli: Rangers significant cap concerns (bonus cushion 7,5%).

[KirkAlbuquerque]

why wouldnt they just trade kreider and re sign strome. no need for kreider with lafreniere

Kreider will be getting the C they love him

 

[IranCondraAffair]

To sum up the problem:

The Salary Cap has a rule that was designed to prevent teams from having a bunch of high draft picks on the roster at once without using up a bunch of cap space.

The Rangers have a bunch of high draft picks on the roster and they're using a bunch of cap space.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

 

[Scorvat]

I hate the strict hard cap that teams are forced to live by, hockey as sport is already full of parity I don't see why the NHL has to enforce it as well

 

[ElLeetch]

One issues is that this will continue to be a problem as Kakko, Kravtsov and Fox has two years left, Lafreniere, Miller and Lundkvist etc have 3 years left on elc.

.

It will not "continue to be a problem", as after this year, we shed about 12M in buyouts, 4.3M in Smith, and there is no way Strome's ~4M is here beyond this year, either.

Its a 20M obstacle this year, 90% of which we already have covered, and then its gone.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I hate the strict hard cap that teams are forced to live by, hockey as sport is already full of parity I don't see why the NHL has to enforce it as well

The Rangers can play the Leafs 41 times a season then.

 

[AirGut]

Where’s Eichel 10m going to fit? Buffalo is obviously not going to retain salary.

If the Rangers are ever going to trade for Eichel down the road, expect Zibanejad to be apart of a package of assets. No way the cap would work without including him tbh

 

[IranCondraAffair]

It will not "continue to be a problem", as after this year, we shed about 12M in buyouts, 4.3M in Smith, and there is no way Strome's ~4M is here beyond this year, either.

Its a 20M obstacle this year, 90% of which we already have covered, and then its gone.

Yes and No.

Yes you have more room, but then you have to worry about bonus rollover. The Rangers could end up with 7-10M a season in rollover money to guys Like Kakko, Laf, etc.. which keeps eating into things right as guys like ZIbanejad, etc.. need raises.

 

[GAGLine]

I hate the strict hard cap that teams are forced to live by, hockey as sport is already full of parity I don't see why the NHL has to enforce it as well

It's full of parity because they enforce it via the cap. There are teams that struggle financially even with the cap. Without a cap, those teams would have no chance.

The cap is the right thing for the league, and to be honest, it was exactly what the Rangers needed, as it forced them to build more through the draft. It forces teams to be smart, rather than just rich.

 

[One Winged Angel]

@Amazing Kreiderman already explained this on twitter. They'll be fine.

 

[Scorvat]

The Rangers can play the Leafs 41 times a season then.

I'm not saying get rid of it, but their is no reason why their can't be some flexibility when navigating it; Like is luxury tax really that bad of a system. I'm sure small-mid level markets will still do well

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I'm not saying get rid of it, but their is no reason why their can't be some flexibility when navigating it; Like is luxury tax really that bad of a system. I'm sure small-mid level markets will still do well

Luxury tax is fine, and I prefer it as well because it helps redistribute income, but you can end up with some permanent welfare bum teams with a Luxury tax who end up with no incentive to improve their own revenues.

Personally, I'd just prefer if teams were able to sell cap space (within reason) for draft picks.

Maybe 1 year at a time, no more than 10M, etc...

 

[WesMcCauley]

It will not "continue to be a problem", as after this year, we shed about 12M in buyouts, 4.3M in Smith, and there is no way Strome's ~4M is here beyond this year, either.

Its a 20M obstacle this year, 90% of which we already have covered, and then its gone.

The bonus cushion at 7,5% of the cap might very well continue to be a "problem" in that it might lower Rangers cap ceiling for another year or two unless they make some trades. Kakko and Laf's bonuses are almost 7,5% alone.

 

[haveandare]

It’s really not an issue after moving Staal and buying out Hank. They’ll likely let Strome walk, which is not a huge loss. He looks good on the stat sheet but is not a play driver or big contributor. He can score with Panarin which isn’t something absolutely anyone can do, but isnt a terribly value thing either, especially when you bring nothing else.

 

[charliemurphy]

Here's the problem.

Right now, as far as the Rangers are concerned, unless they move someone like Fox, Kakko or Shesterkin, rookie bonus money = real money. Whoever they pick #1 is going to play in the NHL and cost around 3.7M in cap hit. Not 950K in cap hit like they normally do. With that in mind, the Rangers have 22M in cap space (23M - the 1.1M from the tweet)

Assuming Lafreniere takes up an additional 3.7M, that leaves them with 18M. They still need 4 forwards, 3 defensemen, and a goalie after that. If Strome costs 5M and so does Deangelo (which is completely reasonable). That leaves then with 8 million to sign Gregoriev and 5 other players. Again, not THAT hard.

Unfortunately as a result of everything above, they can't use a lot of their entry level contracts (rookies) to fill the roster. Normally team use rookies because they're cheap. Unfortunately a lot of the Ranger rookies will count for 1.6M against the cap instead of 800-900K, making it much harder to fill out the roster.


This is making it hard to fill out the roster without moving one of DeAngelo or Strome.

Or both.

 

[Guttersniped]

Yes and no.

This rule was fairly unknown until this moment. The reason being, most 1OA winners arent that lucky to get one the year after signing a top tier player in UFA. Most scorch the earth rebuilders wouldnt have this issue. They arent spending close to top.

Yes if they are going to take a bunch of bad contracts to really up their draft / prospect capital and spend near the max. That wouldnt make much sense business wise as the team wont bring in many fans.

They also added Trouba’s 8m when they added Panarin’s 11.6m so they added quite a bit of salary.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think the 13 million in buyouts is much more concerning than the 1 million bonus overages. Kakko, Shesterkin and Lafreniere have staggered contract expirations, so it isn't a long-term problem.

 

[ICanMotteBelieveIt]

Kreider will be getting the C they love him

I think it goes to Zibanejad, Kreids get an A.

 

[GAGLine]

I think the 13 million in buyouts is much more concerning than the 1 million bonus overages. Kakko, Shesterkin and Lafreniere have staggered contract expirations, so it isn't a long-term problem.

It's actually 4 mil, once we add Laf, and potentially more based on who else makes the roster. The 13 mil in buyouts drops to 4 mil next year.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I'm not saying get rid of it, but their is no reason why their can't be some flexibility when navigating it; Like is luxury tax really that bad of a system. I'm sure small-mid level markets will still do well

There is flexibility, there’s about 20m between the cap min and cap max.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think the 13 million in buyouts is much more concerning than the 1 million bonus overages. Kakko, Shesterkin and Lafreniere have staggered contract expirations, so it isn't a long-term problem.

Lafreniere, Kakko, Shestyorkin and Fox combine for 9.2m in max performance bonuses. According to the CBA, 7.5% is the max they can roll over the cap. That comes down to 6.1m, meaning they need at least 3.1m in cap space to be safe

This is assuming Chytil, Gauthier, Howden and Lindgren do not hit any of their bonuses

 

[The Real JT]

Rangers had Fox, Panarin and Lafreniere land in their laps. I’m looking for the smallest violin possible.

Add Kakko.

This violin is pretty small.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

We just need to budget 3.1 in cap this year in case every single bonus is made and to allow for the % Bonuses represent in overall cap. We’ve done that and can still sign everybody with about 1.5 mil left over, we just have less cap than it may seem today on cap friendly.

 

[Fig]

TL;DR - I feel like the tweet in OP hinted at significantly ominous clouds. But am I doing the following correctly? It basically says NYR are a little tight, but overall OK. Am I on the right track?

(Sorry for the wall of text and manual nerd processing of the situation)

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Count down from $81.5 MM (Confusing as hell)

Typically a team has a cap upper limit. In this case it's 81.5 MM. Bonuses up to 7.5% (6.1 MM) don't affect that upper limit or cap hit, but are real cash to the players on ELC earning those bonuses?

The moment that you exceed a potential bonus of 7.5% (not earned, but potential), it erodes your upper limit.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Per this, there's 7.2 MM in bonuses for roster players. Rangers expecting to add another 2.85 in bonuses for 1OA = 10.1 ish. 3 non roster have a 850K bonus structure. Assuming worst case scenario of the 4 ELC players added to the roster with highest bonuses (850 + 850 +850 + 500), Total bonus = 13.112 MM bonuses = 7.013 bonus overage.

This overage effectively means the NYR ceiling goes from 81.5 to 74.5. Which already sucks, but they also have dead cap of non-roster players of $12.994 MM in 2020-2021 ($4.044 MM in 2021-2022) which means an effective roster cap of $61.5 MM.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So with 61.5 ceiling to technically use on a full roster, they currently are sitting at $45.5MM of contracts. This means $16.0 MM remain and they still need to add, 1G, 2D, 5F worth of players and those on ELC have a cap hit higher of $925K or more?

==========
Count up towards $81.5 MM (Easier to understand)

- NYR currently has 8 forwards under contract, 4 dmen under contract and 1G under contract with cap hits of $44.5 MM.
- They have $13 MM in dead cap = $57.5
- They have performance bonuses overage for 2020-2021 of $1.1 MM of current roster players that are expected to play = $58.6MM

- They need to add 5 forwards, 3 dmen and 1G.

Play along conservative minimums

5 Forwards
- 1st OA: Effective cap hit due to bonuses = $2.85 MM + $925K ELC = $3.8 MM Cap hit = $62.4
- Barron: ECH: $850K + $925K = $1.8 MM = $64.2MM
- Kravstov: ECH: $850K + $925K = $1.8 MM = $66.0 MM
- Andersson: ECH: $850K + $895K = $1.8MM = $67.8 MM
- Richards: ECH: $500K + $925K = 1.4MM = $69.2 MM

3 Dmen
- Miller: ECH: $925K + $300K = $1.3 MM = $70.5 MM
- Rykov: ECH: $925K + $0 = $925K = $71.4 MM
- Reunanen: ECH: $809K + $133K = $942K = $72.3 MM

1G
- N/A for a sec.

This means that with the above players slotted in, rangers are at $72.3 MM ($9.2 MM remain)
- Assume $4MM for goalie? (Georgiev or someone else) = $76.3 MM ($5.2MM remain)
- Roster is now full. Remainder of non-roster players stay non-roster (minor leagues etc.)

NYR now have confusion about what to do about Georgiev (kept at $4 MM or whatever, traded and another goalie at $4MM), ADA, Guiseppe and Strome.

No one talking about Guiseppe so let's say he's gone. There's $5.2MM remaining, so let's say we allocate $2.6MM for each of Strome and ADA. To slot them in, we pull off an ELC with effective cap hit.
- Strome max ish = $2.6 MM + ECH 1.8 MM of player sent down = $4.4MM? (Previous $3.1MM cap hit)
- ADA max ish = $2.6 MM + $940K = $3.5 MM? (Previous $925K ELC)

- $5.2MM + 1.8 MM ECH forward + $940K ECH dman = $7.9 MM cap space to upgrade two ELC either with ADA + Strome or other combos.


====

Am I doing this wrong because when counting up, it seems like NYR isn't doing bad at all it's something to be aware but not terrifying yet as the tweet implied. The worst case scenario is choosing one of ADA and Strome to ripped off on but it's not horrific. I mean, in theory you could bury an ELC and sign a vet at league minimum to boost more cap available for ADA and Strome.

Additionally, in 2021-2022 season, the dead cap space is reduced by $8.9 MM (and they also lose a piece to Seattle) which obviously gives NYR a huge, huge bit of breathing room.

NYR are doing OK and not technically in Cap hell just icing a roster, right?
Albeit, even when Chicago was in Cap hell, I don't think they ran as many ELC on the roster... But NYR are rebuilding vs contending, so it's not technically cap hell?

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But when counting down, it's confusing as hell and it seems like it's ridiculously tight because of the moving remaining cap due to the cap cushion thing. I think it's easier to take ELC players and look at them as effective cap hit.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I hate the strict hard cap that teams are forced to live by, hockey as sport is already full of parity I don't see why the NHL has to enforce it as well

If you want true parity, the cap should be adjusted by cost of living figures.