Buffalo Bills Post-Draft Discussion

[Kupo]

Our board is below. Colored players have been selected. I want to give us a shout out. Every non-QB picked tonight appeared on our board! We did outstanding!


2024 HF Bills Big Board
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)
22. Graham Barton, OL, Duke (100%)
23. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina (50%)
23. Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State (50%)
25. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia (50%)
26. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia (50%)
26. Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona (50%)
26. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma (50%)
29. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama (67%)
30. Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri (50%)
31. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State (33%)
31. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon (33%)

33. Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan (75%)
34. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas (50%)
34. Jalynn Polk, WR, Washington (50%)
36. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida (67%)
36. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson (67%)
38. TJ Tampa, CB, Iowa (100%)
39. Patrick Paul, OL, Houston (50%)
40. Marshawn Kneeland, DE,Western Michigan (0%)

JPG?
Dejean?
Newton/Jenkins?
Mitchell/McKonky/Legette?

Some really good names left.

What would the cost be if we drafted JPG at 33 and then traded back down to put ourselves in position to draft McKonkey or Mitchell?

 

[Reddawg]

Seems like we got very little value for trading down.

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In my opinion the true value of these moves is yet to come. In addition to most likely still getting the player we wanted at #28 at #33 (or beyond if we continue to deal) we also significantly upgraded our remaining tradebait picks for added ammo for more trades. Beane is nowhere near done, we can’t actually use all these picks but we can certainly make more deals to maximize them.

 

[truthbluth]

Didn't reports come out about Mitchell being difficult to deal with for whatever reasons?

Specifically that he wasn’t serious about his healthcare as a type I diabetic. So he’d have wild swings of energy from practice to practice.

 

[Zman5778]

JPG?
Dejean?
Newton/Jenkins?
Mitchell/McKonky/Legette?

Some really good names left.

What would the cost be if we drafted JPG at 33 and then traded back down to put ourselves in position to draft McKonkey or Mitchell?

If we find a team bereft of picks.....we could use 60, 128, and 3 of our 5ths to get into the 40-45 range.

Not sure that'd be high enough to get McConkey or Mitchell.....might be high enough to get Franklin.

 

[Zman5778]

Specifically that he wasn’t serious about his healthcare as a type I diabetic. So he’d have wild swings of energy from practice to practice.

I hadn't heard about that.

That's......bad......if true.

 

[enthusiast]

It’s going to be funny when Worthy’s touchdown knocks the bills out of the playoffs

 

[Der Jaeger]

Seems like we got very little value for trading down.

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Beane got just a little ahead of what he should have received.

Google the NFL draft trade value chart and go to draftek’s site. They have the Johnson chart. It’s the right value, just a little ahead of what he should’ve received.

 

[Zman5778]

Beane got just a little ahead of what he should have received.

Google the NFL draft trade value chart and go to draftek’s site. They have the Johnson. Chart. It’s the right value, just a little ahead of what he should’ve received.

Whatcha mean by "ahead"? As in Beane did a little better than expected? Or a little worse than expected?

 

[Dirty Dog]

They significantly upgraded three different draft picks by just moving down a few picks. It’s a big deal

 

[Husko]

They significantly upgraded three different draft picks by just moving down a few picks. It’s a big deal

Good way of thinking about it. Losing the 5h year option is the biggest sting.

 

[Zman5778]

Good way of thinking about it. Losing the 5h year option is the biggest sting.

Biggest sting is helping KC. Losing the 5th year option is a super mild abrasion.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Biggest sting is helping KC. Losing the 5th year option is a super mild abrasion.

When Worthy busts, it will be no help

 

[Zman5778]

When Worthy busts, it will be no help

From your fingertips to god's ears.

 

[truthbluth]

If the whole trade had just been Carolina, it’d have been a non-story. As it should be. Trading with KC is ballsy. Being afraid to lose a trade with KC and look dumb is coward shit. You make the deal you need to for your team.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Whatcha mean by "ahead"? As in Beane did a little better than expected? Or a little worse than expected?

A little ahead

28 -> 32 was -70 points in value
133 -> 95 was +80.5
248 -> 221 was +2

The +12.5 net is about equivalent to a mid 6th round pick of EXTRA value.

(all by the chart Der Jaeger mentioned in his post)

Walder was thinking about it all wrong. By his thinking an "even" trade would be a free move up for the team moving up. You can argue teams moving up usually overpay, I suppose, but certainly not always or as a rule.

 

[Djp]

Why is everyone pissed? Are you kidding me?

Go look at the Johnson trade value chart. Bills got more value trading down to 32 than the Chiefs got.

Some of you would’ve traded UP to get Mitchell. And he’s still on the board at 33.

Holy cow, some of you have no idea what you’re watching.

I don't have an issue in trading down


It will be interesting to see what happens. Does a team offer next years 1st?

I think washington has 3 3rd round picks. Would they trade down with WAS and get an additional 3rd RD pick and have 2 2nd and 2 3rds

Buf 2nd and a 5th for was 2nd and was 3rd ( middle pick)

 

[Der Jaeger]

This was brilliance by Beane.

Gets his 3rd back and improves positioning on day 3.

Gets the 33rd pick. Teams are resetting their draft boards, and he’s going to get calls all day tomorrow. He might get a sweetheart deal.

JPJ, DeJean, Mitchell, and McConkey are all on the board. We’d cheer if that was the choice at 28 just a few days ago.

He could trade down 2-3 picks and still get a first round graded player.

He read the run on QBs properly and did the right thing.

Really well done.

Whatcha mean by "ahead"? As in Beane did a little better than expected? Or a little worse than expected?

Beane got more value than he gave up.

 

[Zman5778]

A little ahead

28 -> 32 was -70 points in value
133 -> 95 was +80.5
248 -> 221 was +2

The +12.5 net is about equivalent to a mid 6th round pick of EXTRA value.

(all by the chart Der Jaeger mentioned in his post)

Walder was thinking about it all wrong. By his thinking an "even" trade would be a free move up for the team moving up. You can argue teams moving up usually overpay, I suppose, but certainly not always or as a rule.

And then the Carolina trade:

32 --> 33 is -10
200 --> 141 is +24.3

So that's a net of +14.3, or another mid round 6th of extra value.

Beane did well.

 

[Husko]

Brugler just said apparently there were bad character reviews about JPJ which is why he fell. First I've heard of it. Might be off Beane's board.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Beane's phone must be burning up with calls on the 33rd pick.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I think the fact we traded back only a few picks at a time shows the bills are still getting a player in the same tier they would have at 28. Now, there might be only one player left in that tier and we’re drafting him at 33, or there might be a few left in that tier and another trade down is coming. Normally it’s tough to trade down, but someone is always going to be willing to trade up to 33

 

[Zman5778]

Brugler just said apparently there were bad character reviews about JPJ which is why he fell. First I've heard of it. Might be off Beane's board.

Huh. I didn't see any of that either.

OK then. So if Mitchell is struggling being serious about his health, and JPJ has character issues.........

I gotta think if Beane wanted DeJean, he would've stayed put.

Hmmmmmm

 

[Husko]

I think the fact that no one I wanted went off the board from 28 to 32 makes me feel a lot better about the move.

There's no way we're making 11 picks. Those 8 day 3 picks are getting consolidated for sure.

 

[tmlms13]

Create a bidding war for pick 33 and find a team willing to massively overpay to move up to 33.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I think the fact that no one I wanted went off the board from 28 to 32 makes me feel a lot better about the move.

There's no way we're making 11 picks. Those 8 day 3 picks are getting consolidated for sure.

Could very well have 4 day two picks tomorrow