Post-Game Talk: Sens in Buffalo, the Shawville Showdown, Round 2

[ChocolateLeclaire]

I don't know. Two of the goals were kind of weak 5 hole goals. But maybe I'm too harsh on the guy since our goalies have been playing at such a high level.

Still, he does seem to have problems with rebounds which inflates the number of shots he faces.

One was off a tip in tight by Moulsen and the other had him going from post to post to make a save. Neither were "weak goals".

His rebounding is still questionable. He also really struggles with handling the puck. He's lucky that Karlsson had that kick save in the Boston game otherwise he'd be on every top 10 blooper reel of 2014.

 

[StefanW]

I think the worst we can say is that maybe a goal was possibly stoppable, and we need our goalies to play lights out every game in order to win. IMO that would be nit-picking, and was fine with Lehner's game.

If the refs don't blow two easy calls (puck in the netting, clear offside) then we win the game. That is the way it goes, and over a long season these things tend to even out.

 

[God Says No]

One was off a tip in tight by Moulsen and the other had him going from post to post to make a save. Neither were "weak goals".

His rebounding is still questionable. He also really struggles with handling the puck. He's lucky that Karlsson had that kick save in the Boston game otherwise he'd be on every top 10 blooper reel of 2014.

Like I said I'm nitpicking here, but the post to post one could have been saved but it goes in the 5 hole on Lehner. That was a slow pass across. But agreed it's not an easy save.

The Moulson tap in was because the puck squeezed through his 5 hole again.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

One regulation win since nov 7 iis a slap in the face. Develop the kids, and we'll get McDavid

See that's the problem. If we develop the kids we'll probably do better

Play the vets. Acquire McDavid.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Random thought that popped in my mind

We miss a ton of shots and that is well known; anybody notice how often those missed shots turn into opposing rushes? I'd bet a decent chunk of them do

 

[DrEasy]

Random thought that popped in my mind

We miss a ton of shots and that is well known; anybody notice how often those missed shots turn into opposing rushes? I'd bet a decent chunk of them do

That's one reason why I investigated the % of missed shots by our team in the previous postGDT, but nobody seemed to care.

 

[Super Cake]

You can't expect to make the playoffs by winning one game, then losing the next game, then winning the next game, then losing the next 2 games and so on.

Consistency is still a issue with the Sens.

This consistency issue is going to keep us out of the playoffs and it may also keep us out of a top 5 draft pick.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

That's one reason why I investigated the % of missed shots by our team in the previous postGDT, but nobody seemed to care.

It sounds like an interesting experiment

It's hard to do while streaming for free but I'll try to make an effort next time I'm at a bar watching a Sens to keep track of missed shots that quickly have the play going to the other way

I'm usually at the bar alone so it shouldn't be too hard

 

[StefanW]

That's one reason why I investigated the % of missed shots by our team in the previous postGDT, but nobody seemed to care.

Sorry I missed it. The pages in those roll by in a hurry, and I don't always look back when I show up late.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Would it be appropriate to start our own thread for something like that?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Random thought that popped in my mind

We miss a ton of shots and that is well known; anybody notice how often those missed shots turn into opposing rushes? I'd bet a decent chunk of them do

I think a lot of it is because the guys like to shoot high a lot. If you shoot low and miss, there's a better chance to nab the puck with your stick or skate. Those high misses just bounce off the glass down the ice or go around the high boards to the opposition.

 

[DrEasy]

Couldn't just bump the old thread because it was locked... Here's a copy-paste:

===

Grrrr, you know hockey analysis is in its infancy when you have to look up stuff in multiple places just to produce a simple stat... OK, so I used Micklebot's link for missed shots total, and I had to manually enter the total shots from SportingCharts (others would only give you the breakdowns not the totals). After sorting by missed shot % (missed shots / total shots), and assuming that the numbers correspond to the same number of games played, we get (with apologies for formatting issues):

Team 	MsS	SF	ms%
DALLAS	391	859	0.455180442
LOS ANGELES	415	942	0.440552017
ARIZONA	368	856	0.429906542
NY ISLANDERS	412	961	0.428720083
ANAHEIM	405	963	0.420560748
SAN JOSE	423	1,015	0.416748768
BOSTON	374	902	0.414634146
CAROLINA	358	867	0.412918108
MONTREAL	350	859	0.407450524
OTTAWA	338	844	0.400473934
NASHVILLE	364	911	0.399560922
TORONTO	349	880	0.396590909
MINNESOTA	357	905	0.394475138
CALGARY	336	858	0.391608392
WASHINGTON	345	886	0.389390519
TAMPA BAY	358	923	0.387865655
EDMONTON	335	865	0.387283237
NEW JERSEY	314	812	0.386699507
COLUMBUS	313	811	0.38594328
WINNIPEG	364	944	0.38559322
PHILADELPHIA	311	858	0.362470862
ST LOUIS	347	963	0.360332295
FLORIDA	309	864	0.357638889
DETROIT	330	959	0.344108446
NY RANGERS	279	815	0.342331288
VANCOUVER	321	940	0.341489362
BUFFALO	231	689	0.335268505
PITTSBURGH	296	886	0.334085779
CHICAGO	348	1,052	0.330798479
COLORADO	268	877	0.305587229

So Ottawa is ranked 7th, which isn't good... The good news could be that this stuff maybe regresses to the mean, and so maybe we're just a bit unlucky right now.

 

[StefanW]

Couldn't just bump the old thread because it was locked... Here's a copy-paste:

===

Grrrr, you know hockey analysis is in its infancy when you have to look up stuff in multiple places just to produce a simple stat... OK, so I used Micklebot's link for missed shots total, and I had to manually enter the total shots from SportingCharts (others would only give you the breakdowns not the totals). After sorting by missed shot % (missed shots / total shots), and assuming that the numbers correspond to the same number of games played, we get (with apologies for formatting issues):

Team 	MsS	SF	ms%
DALLAS	391	859	0.455180442
LOS ANGELES	415	942	0.440552017
ARIZONA	368	856	0.429906542
NY ISLANDERS	412	961	0.428720083
ANAHEIM	405	963	0.420560748
SAN JOSE	423	1,015	0.416748768
BOSTON	374	902	0.414634146
CAROLINA	358	867	0.412918108
MONTREAL	350	859	0.407450524
OTTAWA	338	844	0.400473934
NASHVILLE	364	911	0.399560922
TORONTO	349	880	0.396590909
MINNESOTA	357	905	0.394475138
CALGARY	336	858	0.391608392
WASHINGTON	345	886	0.389390519
TAMPA BAY	358	923	0.387865655
EDMONTON	335	865	0.387283237
NEW JERSEY	314	812	0.386699507
COLUMBUS	313	811	0.38594328
WINNIPEG	364	944	0.38559322
PHILADELPHIA	311	858	0.362470862
ST LOUIS	347	963	0.360332295
FLORIDA	309	864	0.357638889
DETROIT	330	959	0.344108446
NY RANGERS	279	815	0.342331288
VANCOUVER	321	940	0.341489362
BUFFALO	231	689	0.335268505
PITTSBURGH	296	886	0.334085779
CHICAGO	348	1,052	0.330798479
COLORADO	268	877	0.305587229

So Ottawa is ranked 7th, which isn't good... The good news could be that this stuff maybe regresses to the mean, and so maybe we're just a bit unlucky right now.

You would hope that it regresses back to the mean.

Are the missed shots individualized? I do not know what site Micklebot suggested so I cant check and answer my own question.

Great work!

 

[MiscBrah]

Couldn't just bump the old thread because it was locked... Here's a copy-paste:

===

Grrrr, you know hockey analysis is in its infancy when you have to look up stuff in multiple places just to produce a simple stat... OK, so I used Micklebot's link for missed shots total, and I had to manually enter the total shots from SportingCharts (others would only give you the breakdowns not the totals). After sorting by missed shot % (missed shots / total shots), and assuming that the numbers correspond to the same number of games played, we get (with apologies for formatting issues):

Team 	MsS	SF	ms%
DALLAS	391	859	0.455180442
LOS ANGELES	415	942	0.440552017
ARIZONA	368	856	0.429906542
NY ISLANDERS	412	961	0.428720083
ANAHEIM	405	963	0.420560748
SAN JOSE	423	1,015	0.416748768
BOSTON	374	902	0.414634146
CAROLINA	358	867	0.412918108
MONTREAL	350	859	0.407450524
OTTAWA	338	844	0.400473934
NASHVILLE	364	911	0.399560922
TORONTO	349	880	0.396590909
MINNESOTA	357	905	0.394475138
CALGARY	336	858	0.391608392
WASHINGTON	345	886	0.389390519
TAMPA BAY	358	923	0.387865655
EDMONTON	335	865	0.387283237
NEW JERSEY	314	812	0.386699507
COLUMBUS	313	811	0.38594328
WINNIPEG	364	944	0.38559322
PHILADELPHIA	311	858	0.362470862
ST LOUIS	347	963	0.360332295
FLORIDA	309	864	0.357638889
DETROIT	330	959	0.344108446
NY RANGERS	279	815	0.342331288
VANCOUVER	321	940	0.341489362
BUFFALO	231	689	0.335268505
PITTSBURGH	296	886	0.334085779
CHICAGO	348	1,052	0.330798479
COLORADO	268	877	0.305587229

So Ottawa is ranked 7th, which isn't good... The good news could be that this stuff maybe regresses to the mean, and so maybe we're just a bit unlucky right now.

haha thanks for finishing this off. I did three teams; LA, Ottawa, and Chicago and then got annoyed.

now this needs a standard deviation and graph. Would be interesting to see visually.

 

[DrEasy]

You would hope that it regresses back to the mean.

Are the missed shots individualized? I do not know what site Micklebot suggested so I cant check and answer my own question.

Great work!

Ask and ye shall receive (quoting Micklebot):

It's one of the RTSS tabs on NHL.com

Team stats:
http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm...=realTimeStats

Player stats:
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...tssPlayerStats

You can also get per min ES versions by pulling the Fenwick and Corsi numbers and looking at the difference.

I'd love to do an individual Missed shot % ranking but that's waaay too much work...

 

[StefanW]

Ask and ye shall receive (quoting Micklebot):



I'd love to do an individual Missed shot % ranking but that's waaay too much work...

Thanks! Apparently the pages have moved, but with this info I can find the updated ones easily enough. I was curious to see if they measured missed shots by player or if it was a Fenwick rating that does not individualize players on the ice.

 

[DrEasy]

Thanks! Apparently the pages have moved, but with this info I can find the updated ones easily enough. I was curious to see if they measured missed shots by player or if it was a Fenwick rating that does not individualize players on the ice.

The page hasn't moved, it's just that you can't just click the link to get there (link got shortened for some reason, don't know why). Right-click on the link and copy it, if you paste it in the address bar it should work.

 

[DrEasy]

haha thanks for finishing this off. I did three teams; LA, Ottawa, and Chicago and then got annoyed.

now this needs a standard deviation and graph. Would be interesting to see visually.

And here it is, just for you!

And the standard deviation is: 0.036525592, not that one needs so many significant digits...

I think Colorado is due for some regression... And it looks like I can't count, since Ottawa is ranked 10th, not 7th as I originally stated.

 

[Push540]

No one was justifying the decision, we were saying that that is probably the reason why Cameron put him in it. Doesn't mean I agree with it.

Isn't that one of the issues with PM being let go? People not agreeing with poor/ strange line up decisions?