Confirmed with Link: Sens hire Pierre McGuire
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There are videos out there that have started showing some of the new applications for AI. Some of them where I thought there is no way to quantify that with mathematics, made me eat my words.
Even on videos, it was able to do analysis on things like how people were gathering dangerously during a pandemic in some public spaces. It is really remarkable sometimes. I want to see what some clever people can do with this over the coming decade before writing it off.
But for all the reasons pointed out, im sure boots on the ground scouts are unlikely to be replaced by this anytime soon. However, the scouts that use it as a tool to broaden their understanding will likely have some advantages. The AI finds patterns where human experts have missed them in many fields more complex than hockey.
It was suggested that it was the analytics guys that proved pulling a goalie with 2 mins was better than the usual last 90 secs. It really made me wonder: what analytics would that have been? Or are they just using analytics as a catch all term there. I wouldn’t have thought there were a lot of samples of pulling the goalie with 2 mins to compare with.
Even on videos, it was able to do analysis on things like how people were gathering dangerously during a pandemic in some public spaces. It is really remarkable sometimes. I want to see what some clever people can do with this over the coming decade before writing it off.
But for all the reasons pointed out, im sure boots on the ground scouts are unlikely to be replaced by this anytime soon. However, the scouts that use it as a tool to broaden their understanding will likely have some advantages. The AI finds patterns where human experts have missed them in many fields more complex than hockey.
It was suggested that it was the analytics guys that proved pulling a goalie with 2 mins was better than the usual last 90 secs. It really made me wonder: what analytics would that have been? Or are they just using analytics as a catch all term there. I wouldn’t have thought there were a lot of samples of pulling the goalie with 2 mins to compare with.
It is my experience that psychologists are producers and consumers of some of the most complex statistics I've encountered. I suspect that sports psychologists may also employ metrics as part of the analysis of individual players. Perhaps these are used to supplement the 'eye test' in evaluations?
DrEasy
Out rumptackling
It could just be cost/benefit analysis. You look at the score, the odds of scoring 5 on 5, how those odds change when playing 6 on 5 and then you weigh them with the value of tying the game vs getting scored on. That's a kind of analytics too, especially if you have enough history to come up with precise odds.
What I've always wondered is why they bring back the goalie after they get scored on and the score is now 3-0. Logically, there's even less reason to play 5vs5 now. I think the human element kicks in and people just don't want to chance a humiliating score, even if losing 5-0 or 2-0 doesn't make a difference (unless of course goal difference is an important tie-breaker in team standings).
DrEasy
Out rumptackling
Those intangibles could be considered as "latent" or "hidden" factors that might determine the tangible/measurable ones. To evaluate a single player's performance, I'd argue ultimately the proof is in the tangible/measurable pudding. If a player is PPG, does it matter if he got there by exercising vs DJing? If anything you could argue that there's MORE potential in the player with bad intangibles, if the bad stuff can be corrected.
Having said that, the intangibles might affect team performance rather than individual performance. So if Matt Duchene or Taylor Hall keeps accumulating individual stats while the team around him crumbles, then you could argue those intangibles might be at play.
Then again there's so much noise and randomness it's hard to know.
That’s exactly it. I first came across the guys who did the math on Malcolm Galdwell’s podcast.
If you’re down by one, you maximize your chance of winning by pulling the goalie with 6:10 left in the third. Down by 2? 13 minutes. And part of the point is to simply maximize winning because losing by 1 or losing by 5 shouldn’t matter.
Why You’re Not Taking Enough Risks On “pulling the goalie” and daring to look stupid
I love this quote:
“People will blame you if you try something new and it goes wrong. They won’t blame you if you try conventional wisdom and it goes wrong”
NyQuil
Big F$&*in Q
I was actually impressed with Keefe’s aggressive pulling of the goalie at times this year.
We were getting caved by Matthews and Marner and they scored at least one with the net empty IIRC.
They would put the goalie back in whenever that line -wasn’t- on the ice.
We were getting caved by Matthews and Marner and they scored at least one with the net empty IIRC.
They would put the goalie back in whenever that line -wasn’t- on the ice.
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What are the observable behaviours you can see on the ice that reflect "desire", "drive" and other so-called intangibles? If you can observe them, they can be tracked.
NyQuil
Big F$&*in Q
After whistle punches?
Pats on the shoulder on the bench?
Volume of excitement when a goal is scored?
Get cracking!
I wonder what the probabilities are for a team scoring or being scored upon when playing 6 skaters versus 5 skaters plus a goaltender? Does anyone have any stats on that?
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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Hers an article about pulling goalies, doesn't exactly anster the question.
NHL Coaches Are Pulling Goalies Earlier Than Ever
I am just wondering if Pierre will be in a business to find those elusive another two all star forwards to complete a rebuild and help Stutzle. Or will do the same shit like Dorion, collecting endless depth pieces? Without those two crucial elite players, rebuild is not compete. Brining players a la Stepan will not help this franchise a bit. Also we need an all star goalie as well.
Thanks for that link. Interesting article. Quote below:
“If you pull the goalie with two and a half minutes to go, you have a 19 to 20 percent chance of tying the game,” Morrison said when we called him last month. If a coach waits until the minute mark, the chances drop to 17 percent."
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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I think part of the problem is teasing out variables. If the goalie doesn't come out till 1 min, is it because the coach waited or because a weaker team was unable to gain control in the OZ till 1 min while the stronger team was able to get set up quicker and safely pull the goalie?
That seems like the smart way to do it, your top players can only sustain high pressure for so long before running out of gas.
Get the stars out there right before the last commercial break and you should get 3 or 4 shifts with the goalie pulled.
NyQuil
Big F$&*in Q
There are ~25 teams out there thinking, “Boy, if we only had two more all-star forwards.”
aragorn
Do The Right Thing
- Aug 8, 2004
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Norris said that Stepan helped him a lot, maybe if he didn't get hurt things could have been different, but in the games he did play he looked done.
Perhaps Stepan should have been a coach instead of a player. Perhaps a replacement for one of our assistant coaches.
Cole Perfetti, Alexander Holtz, Marco Rossi and Jack Quinn are all will be the first line players. You just NEVER EVER pass on the opportunity to draft a future all star. It is idiotic.
There's a higher chance none of them become first line players than any single one of them becoming an all-star.
Even Anton Lundell, who will be a first line centre. Are you kidding me to pass on the franchise centre like this. What the f**** is wrong with Dorion? There is no d-man in the world who will replace a guy like Anton Lundell. Can you imagine him and Stutzle? It was just right there for us and the future Stanley Cup wins!!!
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