Sens Board Prospect Rankings 2015 (4th)

[Smitty26]

Only time will tell. I think there is a chance we have Bergeron and bouwmeester 2.0 on our hands here. The sens scouting staff probably had both these guys ranked in their top 15 in an insanely deep draft. To me, that says a lot.

but....but....

how can you say that those 2 are our best prospects AINEC when there's no reports that indicate they have higher ceilings/only time will tell?

you can have a gut feeling they will be sure, and that's great. But to say they are best 2 ainec is far from a certainty as you originally posted.

look im not disagreeing that they could be amazing.....but I feel like your position is a bit too absolute at the current time frame in their development.

 

[tony d]

Prince.

 

[BondraTime]

Only time will tell. I think there is a chance we have Bergeron and bouwmeester 2.0 on our hands here. The sens scouting staff probably had both these guys ranked in their top 15 in an insanely deep draft. To me, that says a lot.

I can't speak for White, I had no clue about him other than reading reports, but I can say for certain the Sens had Chabot closer to the top 10 than to 20, if not in the top 10. I said this back in January when I heard, and then throughout the rest of the season. They LOVED Chabot.

 

[spader]

White.

Add Schneider.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Personally i think Puempel and Paul are rated too highly in this. I dont think Puempel is our number one prospect. I feel Paul needs to be a bit lower.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Colin White has elite talent and a very high ceiling. You are wrong in continually knocking White. He is a team player at all costs and wins every championship he has ever played in. You will see this in the WJC this year. I'm not sure what scouts you are talking to, but most I have talked to, say he has a very high ceiling. I have seen him play for 2 years. He is highly skilled, very strong, very fast (NHL fast already) and will do whatever a coach asks of him. He also measured at Ottawa camp at 6'1 and is putting the weight back on he lost due to mono. I'm not sure how you say a kid who broke Toews record in the U17 WJC and won the U18 WJC (coming off a season of mono) for his team is a risk..

Every prospect is a risk and things could happen to any of them. White is the real deal 100%. Just ask any scout or coach he has ever played for and that will be your answer.

One last thing. Ottawa coaches and GM's were highly impressed and pleasantly surprised with White after camp regardless of your own personal assessment.

Great Points and info. I am really glad we picked him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Every time one of these prospect polls happens, you get the same thing; some people valuing potential more, and others valuing NHL readiness.

Guys like Paul and Prince are really close, and there is value to that. They could both be playing middle six mins this year if all goes right but could peak at being a tweener

Guys like Chabot and White probably have higher upside, as top 4 / top 6 players, but will take longer to get there.

What you value more is your own perogative, there really is no wrong way of looking at it.

Again I agree. Its in the definition of what Best Prospect means. I am not saying any one elses opinion is wrong. but ... Most NHL ready is easier to guage. Beyong that it gets into what's your favorite colour and how can anybody be wrong about that.

Prospect with the highest Ceiling ...

Most NHL ready prospect ....

both combined under "Best Prospect" so we have a mixture of opinions and slants.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yea I think Colin White could easily be our best player when all is said and done from our pool. Only person who's a dark horse for me to surpass him is Paul cause we've only really seen him in defensive roles where he's excelled and performed well offesively. Of course Chabot too but he still too raw for me to get a better read.

 

[DrEasy]

Every time one of these prospect polls happens, you get the same thing; some people valuing potential more, and others valuing NHL readiness.

Guys like Paul and Prince are really close, and there is value to that. They could both be playing middle six mins this year if all goes right but could peak at being a tweener

Guys like Chabot and White probably have higher upside, as top 4 / top 6 players, but will take longer to get there.

What you value more is your own perogative, there really is no wrong way of looking at it.

But there could be a way to get a more objective read. We could:

1- ask people to assess each player's potential/ceiling and his NHL-readiness separately. There should be less disagreement on each aspect taken separately.

2- Then, as I said in another thread, if we wanted to we could multiply the two values if we do want an overall number and ranking. This in effect would give us the statistical measure of expectation: utility (means "potential" in this context) * probability of reaching that utility (correlates with "NHL-readiness")

In fact, if I were to create an automatic way of ranking prospects, I'd take their draft ranking (converted to something on a 0-10 scale) and multiply it by a combined measure of the league they're playing in currently and at what age (again converted to something on a 0-10 scale).

 

[BondraTime]

But there could be a way to get a more objective read. We could:

1- ask people to assess each player's potential/ceiling and his NHL-readiness separately. There should be less disagreement on each aspect taken separately.

2- Then, as I said in another thread, if we wanted to we could multiply the two values if we do want an overall number and ranking. This in effect would give us the statistical measure of expectation: utility (means "potential" in this context) * probability of reaching that utility (correlates with "NHL-readiness")

In fact, if I were to create an automatic way of ranking prospects, I'd take their draft ranking (converted to something on a 0-10 scale) and multiply it by a combined measure of the league they're playing in currently and at what age (again converted to something on a 0-10 scale).

That doesn't really work, as it doesn't take into account strength of draft, discrepancies of leagues on a year to year basis, and things of that nature.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

If white is as good as everyone is saying i dont know how people could vote Puempel and Paul ahead of him

 

[SAK11]

If white is as good as everyone is saying i dont know how people could vote Puempel and Paul ahead of him

You should hear what people are saying about those two then!

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Again I agree. Its in the definition of what Best Prospect means. I am not saying any one elses opinion is wrong. but ... Most NHL ready is easier to guage. Beyong that it gets into what's your favorite colour and how can anybody be wrong about that.

Prospect with the highest Ceiling ...

Most NHL ready prospect ....

both combined under "Best Prospect" so we have a mixture of opinions and slants.

That's why I'd like to see two separate lists.

1 - most NHL-ready prospect

2 - best/highest-ceiling prospect

That way we can see both the depth of our prospect list and the quality of our prospects.

 

[OgieO]

Yea I think Colin White could easily be our best player when all is said and done from our pool. Only person who's a dark horse for me to surpass him is Paul cause we've only really seen him in defensive roles where he's excelled and performed well offesively. Of course Chabot too but he still too raw for me to get a better read.

Yeah, those are my top 2 right now. I fact, I could just copy and paste that post as it sums up my opinion exactly. Chabot is hard for me to read as he's really raw and has a long way to go, but he sure did look smooth in that 3 on 3.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yeah, those are my top 2 right now. I fact, I could just copy and paste that post as it sums up my opinion exactly. Chabot is hard for me to read as he's really raw and has a long way to go, but he sure did look smooth in that 3 on 3.

Word.

White
Paul
Chabot/Puempel
Puempel/Chabot
Prince

is my top 5 prolly. Vikstrand for Prince but I wouldn't oppose the opposite.

 

[Jerrico]

Here are the results from the past 5 years:

2010: Cowen
2011: Rundblad
2012: Silfverberg
2013: Lehner
2014: Lazar

Not once were Stone, Ceci, Zibanejad, or Hoffman rated as our top prospect. Basically every year we get the rankings wrong. It's still a fun exercise, but I think this shows the error in valuing readiness over potential.

 

[Icelevel]

Word.

White
Paul
Chabot/Puempel
Puempel/Chabot
Prince

is my top 5 prolly. Vikstrand for Prince but I wouldn't oppose the opposite.

same.
and i would have wikstrand o'connor lindberg chlapik in some order after that.

 

[Benjamin]

I don't understand how Puempel was voted #1. Not guaranteed nor high upside.

 

[aragorn]

Here are the results from the past 5 years:

2010: Cowen
2011: Rundblad
2012: Silfverberg
2013: Lehner
2014: Lazar

Not once were Stone, Ceci, Zibanejad, or Hoffman rated as our top prospect. Basically every year we get the rankings wrong. It's still a fun exercise, but I think this shows the error in valuing readiness over potential.

and people crap all over me for my rankings.

I don't understand how Puempel was voted #1. Not guaranteed nor high upside.

Probably because most think he is the closest to making it to Ottawa & maybe this yr.

1. Paul
2. O'Connor
3. Puempel
4. Chabot/White
5. Robinson
6. Lindberg
7. Harpur
8. Hogberg
9. Claesson/Wikstrand
10. McCormick

 

[operasen]

Probably have both 4 and 5 with these two. Strong Top 5 anyway.

 

[Sensinitis]

I don't understand how Puempel was voted #1. Not guaranteed nor high upside.

Not saying he should be #1 but 30G potential is pretty much high upside.

 

[caymanmew]

ok so i am feeling like i dont know anything about Paul now. i thought he was projected to be a good defensive third liner that might get into 2nd/3rd tweener territory but now that he has been voted our second best prospect i am confused.

i assume his potential(based on his ranking)is top 6 2way beast kinda similar to stone? is that right? if not what is his potential?

 

[Benjamin]

Not saying he should be #1 but 30G potential is pretty much high upside.

I meant relative to Chabot and White.

 

[aragorn]

ok so i am feeling like i dont know anything about Paul now. i thought he was projected to be a good defensive third liner that might get into 2nd/3rd tweener territory but now that he has been voted our second best prospect i am confused.

i assume his potential(based on his ranking)is top 6 2way beast kinda similar to stone? is that right? if not what is his potential?

That's how I see Paul as a top line centre, however, it could take him a few yrs to get there since he has two centres who are ahead of him in Turris & Zibanejad who are both still young. I am also wondering if they intend to keep Lazar at RW or put him back at centre where I think he belongs.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

Having followed our prospect pool since Demitra was #1, and generally followed these types of rankings for other teams along the way, the one thing I consistently note is that there is a big risk in valuing a prospect too high before tested against pro competition. Those first couple of AHL years - if players lasts that long - really separate the wheat from the chaff.

Lots of guys transition to the pros well. But there are also a lot of 1.5 ppg players from the CHL who crash and burn there.

What Prince has done at the AHL level, in the time he has been there, has been absolutely terrific. He is WAY ahead of Hoffman at the same age, and really has been the better offensive player than Puempel all along (compare either their OHL or AHL years). Puempel is a different player in terms of perhaps being a pure sniper and better compliment to finesse / playmaking center, but Prince probably brings more to the table when all is said and done, even given Puempel has an edge in the physical game. I know most in Bingo agree with this, or at the very least, are split on who is better. People forget how young Prince still is. Heck, he is younger than Dzingel, who most are seeing as a "fresh face" in Bingo, but forgetting how physically mature he was when he arrived.

Will Paul and White ultimately have the same impact at the AHL level? Certainly possible, but until they do, I'll always discount their potential a tad more than others. It doesn't mean a CHL or college player can't be your #1 prospect, but all things being equal, I lean towards the guy who has proven it at the AHL level.

I'd probably have the top 5 as:
- Prince
- Puempel
- Paul
- Chabot
- White

I think White and Chabot's upsides are as good or better than the top 3 guys, but the risk of the other three is way lower, and the upsides are not that different. I don't think any of those 5 guys is going to be a perennial allstar, although you never know.