GDT: Senators @ Devils, 7 PM, MSG+

[Baemon Severson*]

It's gonna be a fad in the NHL or at the most less useful because it's a free flowing game. Analytics is perfect for baseball and football. I know every team has a analytic department but it's never going to overtake traditional stats and actually watching the game and players I bet there's never been a trade cancelled last second cause the player was bad at a certain analytic. At most it will have 25% of the importance in player evaluation.

As for Severson vs Lovejoy defensively, both have played the same amount of mins. Severson leads every negative "defense stats"; giveaways, TA-GA differential, is -25 which is so bad, 150% worse than the next defensman. Lovejoy in the same amount of time is a -4, has double the blocked shots, more hits, less turnovers and better TO-GA differential. Lovejoy just does his job, he's nothing special. Both players will be better next year with reduced minutes from Santini stepping up or a signing.

It pissed me off I have to bad mouth Severson who is actually one of my favorite players. However I'll never lie to myself about a player. A player is what he is and he's hopefully gonna be our 2nd pairing RHD and PP QB for years. But he needs to improve defensively. Santini is so much better in that aspect and it's so obvious, I thank god we have him cause what I was seeing from Severson was actually atrocious. Just sick of this ******** witch hunt against Lovejoy.

Dude, there is literally not one thing Lovejoy excels at. He's slow, he treats the puck like it's herpes, his stickwork isn't good, he goes out of position to make hits, he screens our goalies like it's no one's business. There is a reason why the Devils get torched a ES when he's on the ice. He is garbage. You can be a useful defensive dman like Santini if you can skate and move the puck at a passable level. He can't

 

[Better Call Sal]

Hey, we steal both games against the Isles and we're right back in it.

 

[njdevil26]

Man this game just felt like another one of those games where the team didn't show up.

 

[Zippy316]

Dude, there is literally not one thing Lovejoy excels at. He's slow, he treats the puck like it's herpes, his stickwork isn't good, he goes out of position to make hits, he screens our goalies like it's no one's business. There is a reason why the Devils get torched a ES when he's on the ice. He is garbage. You can be a useful defensive dman like Santini if you can skate and move the puck at a passable level. He can't

Been saying this for a while.

He's exceptional defensively positionally and 1v1. Everything else he does poor.

Just on those two traits alone, he could make a solid and reliable 3RD, if paired with the right partner. The type of defender you can put out against weak competition and not have to worry about. A guy you can put out on the PK or in defensive situations and know he isn't going to blow his cover. His weaknesses prevent him from doing anything more than that and with only kids on the right side right now, he's playing higher in the line-up than he should.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Man this game just felt like another one of those games where the team didn't show up.

I sensed it very early on in the game. The PP 10 seconds in the game, as uninspired as a team can look.

It's unacceptable and Ray needs to weed it out prior to next season.

Who else can't wait for the next Senzzz game on Tuesday?

 

[njdevil26]

I sensed it very early on in the game. The PP 10 seconds in the game, as uninspired as a team can look.

It's unacceptable and Ray needs to weed it out prior to next season.

Who else can't wait for the next Senzzz game on Tuesday?

This team is actually in a playoff race. They can't just forget to show up to a game once every five or so games. That is on the coaching staff as far as I'm concerned.

That being said, Cammalleri, DSP, Kalinin, Parenteau, and Quincey can all be traded and banished and this team wouldn't be affected.

 

[Zippy316]

I sensed it very early on in the game. The PP 10 seconds in the game, as uninspired as a team can look.

It's unacceptable and Ray needs to weed it out prior to next season.

Who else can't wait for the next Senzzz game on Tuesday?

There's 82 games in a season. These guys aren't robots. There's going to be games like this throughout the course of the season.

Big problem for the Devils (and a lot of teams on the bubble) is they lack that game-changing piece that puts up a goal or makes a play on pure skill alone. Games like these is when you need a guy like Hall to show up on the scoreboard and get a point or two. Kovalchuk, Elias, and Parise did that for us through the entire first half of the 2011-12 season when the team was probably worse than the one we're icing right now.

 

[Triumph]

The plus minus stat Severson is putting up is horrendous, everytime I say this I feel like it's goes in one ear and out the other. His -25 stat is 150% worse than the next worst defensman. Also the stat that matters most to this rediculous argument is turnovers. Everyone or at least the irrational, say Lovejoy is causing turnovers like crazy, he's terrible. It's a lie he's so far down the list of why we're one of the worst teams in the league. People are just mad we don't have s good team, but let's be rational about it and stop using one player as the whipping boy, I think it's pretty pathetic of us as a fanbase. Also me saying Lovejoy is better at the defensive part of the game is true, idk how anyone could argue otherwise.

Because I don't care about +/-, it's a trash stat that mixes in a bunch of nonsense.

Lovejoy is -5 at 5 on 5, Severson is -14. Severson's biggest problem with +/- is that his team isn't scoring goals when he's out on the ice, which is not his fault.

 

[217 Forever]

This team is actually in a playoff race. They can't just forget to show up to a game once every five or so games. That is on the coaching staff as far as I'm concerned.

That being said, Cammalleri, DSP, Kalinin, Parenteau, and Quincey can all be traded and banished and this team wouldn't be affected.

Only in a technical sense because you have to be Arizona-like bad not to be. We are under no circumstances a playoff team.

 

[njdevil26]

There's 82 games in a season. These guys aren't robots. There's going to be games like this throughout the course of the season.

Big problem for the Devils (and a lot of teams on the bubble) is they lack that game-changing piece that puts up a goal or makes a play on pure skill alone. Games like these is when you need a guy like Hall to show up on the scoreboard and get a point or two. Kovalchuk, Elias, and Parise did that for us through the entire first half of the 2011-12 season when the team was probably worse than the one we're icing right now.

These games happen all the time. They sleepwalk and get outshot by crazy margins. Sure there are going to be a few of those during a season... but they have/had a somewhat realistic shot at making the playoffs they can't afford to let this happen time and time again.

 

[njdevil26]

Only in a technical sense because you have to be Arizona-like bad not to be. We are under no circumstances a playoff team.

I understand that. If the team somehow made it in the playoffs they probably would get swept in the first round... but points wise they could make it... and you know for a fact that the players would rather make the playoffs than not.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

It seems that any time the team is in a situation where they can climb within 3 points of the last WC with a win, they forget to show up and **** the bed. They just can't crack that specific threshold (3 points out), and my naive self keeps getting teased over and over again.

I'm sorry, but that's on coaching. This is a pattern, and a noticeable one at that.

 

[Devils Dominion]

When you are short on talent and skill you cannot be light with energy, hard work and passion.

Too many games this season, especially at home, they come out flat as Nebraska and that is unacceptable.

LJ and Camm are beyond on my nerves, they need to go.

Kalinin is a slow slug with stone hands, no reason for him to be in the lineup going forward.

 

[NJDevs26]

Because I don't care about +/-, it's a trash stat that mixes in a bunch of nonsense.

Lovejoy is -5 at 5 on 5, Severson is -14. Severson's biggest problem with +/- is that his team isn't scoring goals when he's out on the ice, which is not his fault.

How is he absolved from the team not scoring goals when he's on the ice when he's supposed to be our best offensive D adding to the offense?

 

[217 Forever]

I understand that. If the team somehow made it in the playoffs they probably would get swept in the first round... but points wise they could make it... and you know for a fact that the players would rather make the playoffs than not.

Yes of course but what I'm saying is that you can't expect a playoff-like effort from a non-playoff type team regardless of what the standings say.

 

[Zippy316]

These games happen all the time. They sleepwalk and get outshot by crazy margins. Sure there are going to be a few of those during a season... but they have/had a somewhat realistic shot at making the playoffs they can't afford to let this happen time and time again.

I don't think they played poorly last night; the Senators just played very well defensively. Devils didn't really give up much and the Senators (and Boucher's game) is low-event through and through.

They had energy to start and the Senators just didn't give them anything. Then they scored on their PP started trapping and it seemed like the Devils just got frustrated and walked right into their trap every single shift.

I still think changing the lines up was stupid. We finally had lines that had some chemistry and worked well with one another then Hynes just changed all of them. So you put guys who have little chemistry with one another out there against a team who is trapping and it wasn't going to end well. You need some creativity and/or knowing what your teammates are going to do to beat a 1-3-1.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I don't think they didn't show up, I think that it was a tight game where no team wanted to make a mistake. I thought that we did a nice job in the first finding ways through their structure to get the puck in deep and get chances. If Lovejoy or BB8s post shot goes in, we're probably talking about an entirely different game.

 

[Burner Account]

How is he absolved from the team not scoring goals when he's on the ice when he's supposed to be our best offensive D adding to the offense?

Especially when he's widely accepted as the team's best offensive defenseman.

 

[Triumph]

How is he absolved from the team scoring goals when he's on the ice when he's supposed to be our best offensive D?

Because there's 4 other players on the ice, and how many goals do you think Severson is going to score as a proportion of goals scored while he's on the ice? As it stands, Severson is 42nd among defensemen in this category regardless - 12% of the goals scored with him on the ice were scored by him. He's 12th in the league in individual points percentage among D - he's gotten a point on 56% of the goals scored with him on the ice.

Put another way, Severson is shooting 4.8% at even strength. There've been 463 shots on goal with him on the ice, 63 of which were by him, 3 of which went in. Of the other 400 shots, 25 have gone in, for a shooting percentage of 6.25. That's not normal. But no worries, this will resolve next year and everyone will pretend that Severson is playing better.

 

[NJDevs26]

Because there's 4 other players on the ice, and how many goals do you think Severson is going to score as a proportion of goals scored while he's on the ice? As it stands, Severson is 42nd among defensemen in this category regardless - 12% of the goals scored with him on the ice were scored by him. He's 12th in the league in individual points percentage among D - he's gotten a point on 56% of the goals scored with him on the ice.

Put another way, Severson is shooting 4.8% at even strength. There've been 463 shots on goal with him on the ice, 63 of which were by him, 3 of which went in. Of the other 400 shots, 25 have gone in, for a shooting percentage of 6.25. That's not normal. But no worries, this will resolve next year and everyone will pretend that Severson is playing better.

I'm not talking just about his own shooting, assists aid and add to the offense too. As does driving play which doesn't always show up in point totals. So again how is he not influencing the offensive numbers of other players on the ice?

 

[Triumph]

I'm not talking just about his own shooting, assists aid and add to the offense too. So again how is he not influencing the offensive numbers of other players on the ice?

Because he's a defenseman, and forwards are going to be far more responsible for goals than a defenseman. I don't know how much more has to be said. Forwards score a way higher proportion of goals and get points on a much higher proportion of goals. Severson has points on 43% of goals scored with him on the ice, a high number for a defenseman - that ranks 14th among D who've played 1000 minutes over the last 3 seasons. That would still rank second to last among Devils' forwards in the hockeyanalysis database over the last 3 years (minimum 500 minutes) ahead of only Luke Gazdic.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I'm not talking just about his own shooting, assists aid and add to the offense too. As does driving play which doesn't always show up in point totals. So again how is he not influencing the offensive numbers of other players on the ice?

Severson is our best possession defenseman by a decent amount, so I think it's fair to say he is driving play.

Fenwick %:
1. Severson: 49.4%
2. Quincey: 47.4%
3. Greene: 47.1%
4. Moore: 44.2%
5. Lovejoy: 43.6%

Team SF/60:
1. Severson: 28.4
2. Greene: 28.4
3. Quincey: 27.2
4. Moore: 26.0
5. Lovejoy: 25.7

Triumph is right: plus minus is a crap stat. Maybe if you have three to four years of data, for players on the same team who played in similar situations, you can begin to draw conclusions. But 60 games worth doesn't tell you jack.

 

[Edmonton East]

Because I don't care about +/-, it's a trash stat that mixes in a bunch of nonsense.

Lovejoy is -5 at 5 on 5, Severson is -14. Severson's biggest problem with +/- is that his team isn't scoring goals when he's out on the ice, which is not his fault.

Andddd here we go again.

Trash stat in isolation. Just like all stats.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Andddd here we go again.

Trash stat in isolation. Just like all stats.

So, in what context, or along with which stat would you say +/- is useful?

 

[NJDevs26]

Severson is our best possession defenseman by a decent amount, so I think it's fair to say he is driving play.

Fenwick %:
1. Severson: 49.4%
2. Quincey: 47.4%
3. Greene: 47.1%
4. Moore: 44.2%
5. Lovejoy: 43.6%

Team SF/60:
1. Severson: 28.4
2. Greene: 28.4
3. Quincey: 27.2
4. Moore: 26.0
5. Lovejoy: 25.7

Triumph is right: plus minus is a crap stat. Maybe if you have three to four years of data, for players on the same team who played in similar situations, you can begin to draw conclusions. But 60 games worth doesn't tell you jack.

Yes he drives play and adds to the offense. Being a good offensive defenseman is ultimately supposed to help +/- too. Severson contributes a lot more offense than anyone else on D and yet his plus-minus is way behind anyone else's on D. I'm astounded that people don't see an issue with this. If Severson made a Merrill-type middling contribution offensively his bad +/- would be even worse.

And Tri citing 5-on-5 plus minus is selective stat use. I understand taking out empty net goals but you can't take out 5-on-4 goals against. That would be like taking out PP points when comparing Sevs to anyone else offensively. Sevs is supposed to help the PP, not be part of SH goals allowed.