GDT: Senators @ Devils, 7 PM, MSG+

[Kurt Cobain]

Severson. He's played with Greene all year and they've played well together. It was the lines under them that faltered.

I'll admit, I'm a big analytic guy. I don't just rely on them. I watch the eye test. And Lovejoy every single game commits the most icings while making a plethora of other mistakes. It's easy to skate into our zone when he's on the ice, he makes a high number of blindless clear attempts to center ice just for the other team to garner a rush. He doesn't hold the zone particularly well. Loses board battles. Gets beat by speed. Sure he might not make as many direct turnovers in our zone (partially because no one really trusts him with the puck), but that doesn't mean he isn't doing some terrible things that are harder to pick up with strictly the eye test.

If you Severson is better at defense than Lovejoy because of icings and you think he makes more mistakes than Severson. Idk what to say I see people complain about a play by Lovejoy on here and I'll go back and have no idea what they're talking about. Severson is below average at defense idk how anyone can watch what's going on and not see him makin terrible defensive choices, turnovers he's looks lost in the d zone at times. When he used to pinch deep in the offensive zone he would cause so many odd man rushes. I don't see him doing that much anymore so I imagine they told him to stop. He's gonna be a great player but some of you are given him credit for what he'll do in the future. He's a -24 the second worst defensman is a -10. I know it's a tricky stay but when your comparing the worst and second worst in that stat on defense and there's a 140% difference...well there's nothin to say it speaks for itself. Santini is gonna pass him ny next year I guarantee it, I don't need to look at any analytics I can just see the maturity Santini has. He's gonna be better than we realize.

 

[Triumph]

Lovejoy is atrocious, the reason he rarely makes bad turnovers is because he is constantly throwing the puck away. If you can't spot the mistakes Lovejoy is making nightly, I don't care how much hockey you've played, either someone taught you the wrong ideas about the game or you're just missing what makes for a good defenseman in 2017.

 

[MadDevil]

Severson and Santini are two very different types of players, so I'm not sure making any comparison between them is a good idea. Severson I think is likely always going to have some risk to his game. He's going to take more chances than a guy like Santini, who has a lot of similar qualities to Larsson. Obviously I'm not saying he'll be at Larsson's level, but he's got that same kind of calm with the puck and tends to make smart decisions. I think it's going to make for a very nice 1-2 punch down the right side with Severson being the more offensive guy who gets plenty of PP time and Santini the defensive guy who gets plenty of PK time.

As for Lovejoy, he is what he is. A stay at home defender with limited offensive ability who should be playing on the third pairing or with a solid #3 that can move the puck. When he's playing 20+ minutes a night his weaknesses get exposed.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

Lovejoy is atrocious, the reason he rarely makes bad turnovers is because he is constantly throwing the puck away. If you can't spot the mistakes Lovejoy is making nightly, I don't care how much hockey you've played, either someone taught you the wrong ideas about the game or you're just missing what makes for a good defenseman in 2017.

He's not atrocious he's a defensive defensman, who's job is to not make mistakes that lead to goals. Who is also being asked to play way more time than he ever has in his career. I also never said my hockey abilities and experience makes me more knowledgeable, it's my explanation for why the eye test is the best way to go and how I can tell who's never played the sport. If he's atrocious at defense what does that make Mooe or Severson? Are they better at defense?

Relying on analytics lol. I don't think managements takes this stuff that serious as the "hockey nerds". I also believe it's not the future but a fad.

 

[R8Devs]

He's not atrocious he's a defensive defensman, who's job is to not make mistakes that lead to goals. Who is also being asked to play way more time than he ever has in his career. I also never said my hockey abilities and experience makes me more knowledgeable, it's my explanation for why the eye test is the best way to go and how I can tell who's never played the sport. If he's atrocious at defense what does that make Mooe or Severson? Are they better at defense?

Relying on analytics lol. I don't think managements takes this stuff that serious as the "hockey nerds". I also believe it's not the future but a fad.

you should tell that to Josh Harris & co. because the Devils (& sixers) are definitely heavily engaged in that department.

 

[Satans Hockey]

Lol Lovejoy sucks. Only takes the use of at least 1 eye to see that.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

Severson and Santini are two very different types of players, so I'm not sure making any comparison between them is a good idea. Severson I think is likely always going to have some risk to his game. He's going to take more chances than a guy like Santini, who has a lot of similar qualities to Larsson. Obviously I'm not saying he'll be at Larsson's level, but he's got that same kind of calm with the puck and tends to make smart decisions. I think it's going to make for a very nice 1-2 punch down the right side with Severson being the more offensive guy who gets plenty of PP time and Santini the defensive guy who gets plenty of PK time.

As for Lovejoy, he is what he is. A stay at home defender with limited offensive ability who should be playing on the third pairing or with a solid #3 that can move the puck. When he's playing 20+ minutes a night his weaknesses get exposed.

I agree with everything you say. Santini is gonna be an all around defensman who eats up mins, kills penalties and should be a top pairing defensman. Severson is gonna be the PP guy who I really believe can be a 50 point d man. I wasn't comparing them I was just saying from what I "see" he will be the superior player. I'd bet my life savings on it.

As for people picking on Lovejoy he's just a defensive defensman who isn't part of the future so they see what they want to see. A bad mouth a guy who doesn't deserve it he just does what he's supposed to. He's nothing special and I never said he was but when I see players unfairly attacked just because we're losing and times look bleak I'm gonna say something. It used to be Josefson now it's Lovejoy.

 

[Triumph]

He's not atrocious he's a defensive defensman, who's job is to not make mistakes that lead to goals. Who is also being asked to play way more time than he ever has in his career. I also never said my hockey abilities and experience makes me more knowledgeable, it's my explanation for why the eye test is the best way to go and how I can tell who's never played the sport. If he's atrocious at defense what does that make Mooe or Severson? Are they better at defense?

Relying on analytics lol. I don't think managements takes this stuff that serious as the "hockey nerds". I also believe it's not the future but a fad.

Moore is also bad, so you won't see me defending him. Watch him on Ottawa's 2nd goal, he's just awful at defending the blueline. Regardless, Severson is better at defense simply because he is able to generate offense. When Severson touches the puck in the D zone, normally he's going to try to make a pass. And not a D to D pass, he's going to try to work the puck to a forward who can then exit the zone with the puck. Doing so incurs risk and sometimes Severson will turn the puck over badly if he misreads which way someone is going or if an opponent anticipates what he's doing. But much of the time it will result in a clean zone exit and offense coming up the ice. Meanwhile Lovejoy's default play is to look to rim it around the boards, try to throw it away from attacking players, or make a D to D pass. It often means the Devils don't get out quickly from their own zone with the puck, and that the other team can quickly regroup to come into the zone again, or have a 50/50 shot at controlling the puck off a faceoff from one of his icings.

I don't care what management thinks - anyone who disregards analytics entirely is relying on having better eyes than the 29 or 30 other teams, so basically it'll be blind luck if they don't get fired within 5 years - but we have evidence from Custance's article about Sai Okabaya.shi that Devils' management did seek the input of their stats department on moves they would make. I know ownership thinks it's important. It is unquestionably not a fad. If you look around sports, you are seeing more and more of this everywhere, it's not going away, no matter how many former players they stuff up in GM boxes.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

Lol Lovejoy sucks. Only takes the use of at least 1 eye to see that.

Hkw does he suck? What has he done lately to hurt us? Does he not play fancy enough for you? He's a defensive defensman the less you notice them the better.

 

[Bleedred]

you should tell that to Josh Harris & co. because the Devils (& sixers) are definitely heavily engaged in that department.

Too bad Hynes isn't.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

Moore is also bad, so you won't see me defending him. Watch him on Ottawa's 2nd goal, he's just awful at defending the blueline. Regardless, Severson is better at defense simply because he is able to generate offense. When Severson touches the puck in the D zone, normally he's going to try to make a pass. And not a D to D pass, he's going to try to work the puck to a forward who can then exit the zone with the puck. Doing so incurs risk and sometimes Severson will turn the puck over badly if he misreads which way someone is going or if an opponent anticipates what he's doing. But much of the time it will result in a clean zone exit and offense coming up the ice. Meanwhile Lovejoy's default play is to look to rim it around the boards, try to throw it away from attacking players, or make a D to D pass. It often means the Devils don't get out quickly from their own zone with the puck, and that the other team can quickly regroup to come into the zone again, or have a 50/50 shot at controlling the puck off a faceoff from one of his icings.

I don't care what management thinks - anyone who disregards analytics entirely is relying on having better eyes than the 29 or 30 other teams, so basically it'll be blind luck if they don't get fired within 5 years - but we have evidence from Custance's article about Sai Okabaya.shi that Devils' management did seek the input of their stats department on moves they would make. I know ownership thinks it's important. It is unquestionably not a fad. If you look around sports, you are seeing more and more of this everywhere, it's not going away, no matter how many former players they stuff up in GM boxes.

It's gonna be a fad in the NHL or at the most less useful because it's a free flowing game. Analytics is perfect for baseball and football. I know every team has a analytic department but it's never going to overtake traditional stats and actually watching the game and players I bet there's never been a trade cancelled last second cause the player was bad at a certain analytic. At most it will have 25% of the importance in player evaluation.

As for Severson vs Lovejoy defensively, both have played the same amount of mins. Severson leads every negative "defense stats"; giveaways, TA-GA differential, is -25 which is so bad, 150% worse than the next defensman. Lovejoy in the same amount of time is a -4, has double the blocked shots, more hits, less turnovers and better TO-GA differential. Lovejoy just does his job, he's nothing special. Both players will be better next year with reduced minutes from Santini stepping up or a signing.

It pissed me off I have to bad mouth Severson who is actually one of my favorite players. However I'll never lie to myself about a player. A player is what he is and he's hopefully gonna be our 2nd pairing RHD and PP QB for years. But he needs to improve defensively. Santini is so much better in that aspect and it's so obvious, I thank god we have him cause what I was seeing from Severson was actually atrocious. Just sick of this ******** witch hunt against Lovejoy.

 

[Bleedred]

I'm mostly supportive of analytics, but not blindly.

Like in the cases of a player like Jacob Josefson, he's the best example. Where he's got the worst points per 60 in the league over the last however many years, yet he's great in most of the metrics. I think this is definitely an anomaly and exception to the rule and I don't buy that he's just had 6 or 7 years worth of bad luck.

I also think there's TOO MANY advanced stats out there at this point. I remember someone using a couple of them to justify why Bryce Salvador in his twilight years wasn't really that bad, because he led the team in some weird statistic. It had to be a weird statistic if he led the team in a positive way in anything over the last 2 or 3 seasons he played.

 

[R8Devs]

severson is obviously going to have more giveaways...he carries the puck more and plays with more risk.

having hits and more blocked shots doesn't mean he's a better defensive player. and giveaways/hits are not the best tracked stats either.

 

[Bleedred]

severson is obviously going to have more giveaways...he carries the puck more and plays with more risk.

having hits and more blocked shots doesn't mean he's a better defensive player. and giveaways/hits are not the best tracked stats either.

I think that's the case with a lot of good possession players, they have a lot of giveaways and turnovers against, since they have the puck a lot more. I don't always think it's automatically indicative of a player being good, when they have a ton of turnovers, nor the other way around either. I think Dustin Brown is an example of a player with good possession numbers, but always is among the leaders in hits in the league. Not sure what his numbers are like this year, still had good possession numbers (Sutter system is dummy proof with possession IMO) but hasn't hit 30 points in the previous 3 years. Looks like he will this year.

I see a lot of old school commentators like Denis Potvin, who go on about turnovers every time a goal is scored. If you ever watch a Panthers game, literally EVERY goal is because of a ''Bad turnover'' or because of a non-call on some BS, if you ask him. My much older friend that I regularly text with about the games, is actually very into analytics and I was surprised, as a lot of people his age and even my own age are not into them. I was surprised at his knowledge on that. A lot of older fans his age miss hitting and goons and physicality, so I'm surprised at talking to him and not hearing about, from a 68 year old that's been watching hockey for 50 something years.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

I think that's the case with a lot of good possession players, they have a lot of giveaways and turnovers against, since they have the puck a lot more. I don't always think it's automatically indicative of a player being good, when they have a ton of turnovers, nor the other way around either. I think Dustin Brown is an example of a player with good possession numbers, but always is among the leaders in hits in the league. Not sure what his numbers are like this year, still had good possession numbers (Sutter system is dummy proof with possession IMO) but hasn't hit 30 points in the previous 3 years. Looks like he will this year.

I see a lot of old school commentators like Denis Potvin, who go on about turnovers every time a goal is scored. If you ever watch a Panthers game, literally EVERY goal is because of a ''Bad turnover'' or because of a non-call on some BS, if you ask him. My much older friend that I regularly text with about the games, is actually very into analytics and I was surprised, as a lot of people his age and even my own age are not into them. I was surprised at his knowledge on that. A lot of older fans his age miss hitting and goons and physicality, so I'm surprised at talking to him and not hearing about, from a 68 year old that's been watching hockey for 50 something years.

It is true that high possession defenman have more turnovers but Lovejoys lack of turnovers that everyone imagines aren't true as well. Severson has a long way to go defensivly. I'm also not standing up for Lovejoy cause he's Ken Daneyko and you're all in denial. I just want people to stop lying cause that's what's going on they're lying about how negatively Lovejoy is effecting us and in denial about how Severson isnt hurting is in areas. He's the first pairing RHD defensman and obviously he's not cut out for it yet. Cognitive dissonance is strong with some of you. I think that's the word I'm tired as hell.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

severson is obviously going to have more giveaways...he carries the puck more and plays with more risk.

having hits and more blocked shots doesn't mean he's a better defensive player. and giveaways/hits are not the best tracked stats either.

The plus minus stat Severson is putting up is horrendous, everytime I say this I feel like it's goes in one ear and out the other. His -25 stat is 150% worse than the next worst defensman. Also the stat that matters most to this rediculous argument is turnovers. Everyone or at least the irrational, say Lovejoy is causing turnovers like crazy, he's terrible. It's a lie he's so far down the list of why we're one of the worst teams in the league. People are just mad we don't have s good team, but let's be rational about it and stop using one player as the whipping boy, I think it's pretty pathetic of us as a fanbase. Also me saying Lovejoy is better at the defensive part of the game is true, idk how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

[NJDevs26]

Hkw does he suck? What has he done lately to hurt us? Does he not play fancy enough for you? He's a defensive defensman the less you notice them the better.

That's the problem, because Lovejoy adds nothing to the offense and isn't a physical d-man, the only time you do notice him is when he ***** something up, which usually happens at least a couple times a game given all the time he's on ice and all the pressure other teams put on us.

I'm actually not anti-Lovejoy like most of the board either...but he's just not going to look good playing first-pairing minutes on a below average team. He's not a first-pairing defenseman to begin with (not that Severson is either, and they don't want to put Santini in that role). And he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt like Severson/Santini who are homegrown guys.

I don't want to have another big plus-minus discussion either, but to me it's actually an accomplishment Lovejoy's plus-minus is so low given the fact he does add nothing to the offense. Whereas if you are contributing to the offense and have a horrid plus-minus it looks even worse to me than a defenseman who has no offensive skills at all having a mediocre plus-minus. Although obviously it's preferable to have at least a couple of defensemen that can help the offense, and we need Severson to eventually get better cause there's no other promising offensive defenseman in the system unless you want to wait for Rykov in a few years. But we do lose sight sometimes in the neverending pursuit for more offensive help that defensemen actually HAVE TO DEFEND too.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

Larsson was our best dman last year not from doing something fancy, but because he could make a good first pass and get out of our zone. We don't have anyone that can do that and Lovejoy is negative when it comes to offense.

He's probably fine on the bottom pairing but I hope Ray doesn't go ex-pens hunting again. (he will)

 

[Devils Dominion]

That nonchalant, lazy opening minute PP told me that they were not interested in playing hockey last night and would lose so I turned it off after the 1st period.

Not surprised to see the score earlier this morning.

They mailed it in last night folks, at home too.

Ray needs to bring in not only better players but some leadership too.

And discard the dead weight soon (LJ, Camm to start).

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Hkw does he suck? What has he done lately to hurt us? Does he not play fancy enough for you? He's a defensive defensman the less you notice them the better.

He's hurt us by being bad at hockey. I notice him every game being terrible at hockey. He's about as bad as over the hill Salvador and Volchenkov.

 

[Burner Account]

Caught the last ten minutes or so and saw some pretty uninspired play even though only down one goal.

Something that stood out to me was all the icing. Just lazy stuff.

It just looked like the team knows what it is and has kind of checked out.

 

[217 Forever]

you should tell that to Josh Harris & co. because the Devils (& sixers) are definitely heavily engaged in that department.

And how much success on the ice/court have their teams had?

 

[Better Call Sal]

How last night felt.

Thought it was a really tight game up until that stupid penalty by Cammy that led to Phaneuf's laser goal. After that, the team fell completely flat. Sens seized control from there.

Thought Cory had a really strong game though, as did the defense as a whole. While that 2nd goal was a stinker, the game was already effectively over because we couldn't generate squat in the 3rd. Fell victim to a team that plays a much sounder structural game compared to us.

 

[tailfins]

Caught the last ten minutes or so and saw some pretty uninspired play even though only down one goal.

Something that stood out to me was all the icing. Just lazy stuff.

It just looked like the team knows what it is and has kind of checked out.

I know what you're saying, but I'm not sure I'd be so harsh in the assessment.

The Sens played a very structured game. They made it hard on the Devils. For most of the game, I thought the Devils did the same.

However, for the Devils last night, playing safe, structured hockey wasn't enough. They needed to bring some emotion to the game. They never pushedthe Senators out of their comfort zone. It's where a pest like Blandisi could have helped. Or it would have been good to see Wood or Palmieri get physically involved.

 

[Zippy316]

Thought Cory had a really strong game though, as did the defense as a whole. While that 2nd goal was a stinker, the game was already effectively over because we couldn't generate squat in the 3rd. Fell victim to a team that plays a much sounder structural game compared to us.

My Spiderman game was weak last night.

I did make Bleed's official spiderman meme though: