Speculation: Secondary Scoring is non existent!

[LeafGrief]

What's even more concerning is that our defense isn't scoring. Barrie hasn't scored a goal since January, and has two since he scored 3 in 3 after the coaching change. Muzzin leads our D with 6 goals all year. Barrie can't score, Dermott can't score, Holl can't score, Sandin can't score, Marty f***in Marincin can score apparently but I don't think anyone is counting on that shit to continue.

When our entire D core and bottom six are struggling to score, it makes things challenging.

Thought I saw some saying our depth was really good?

Our depth started off great, but then we lost two middle six wingers to injuries and then all the other ones completely forgot how to score. We should be getting more from players like Engvall and Kerfoot, Kapanen can't carry the entire bottom six singlehandedly. Only other guy in the bottom six who's getting anything done is Spezza.

 

[Big Muddy]

Our depth started off great, but then we lost two middle six wingers to injuries and then all the other ones completely forgot how to score. We should be getting more from players like Engvall and Kerfoot, Kapanen can't carry the entire bottom six singlehandedly. Only other guy in the bottom six who's getting anything done is Spezza.

Would imagine injuries happen most years. Factor that in as part of the plan maybe?

 

[67Leafs67]

Clifford, Gautheir, Malgin, and Engvall pretty much give us nothing offensively.

Yeah, but the "nothing" that they give isn't exactly startling.

First of all, all four of those guys are fourth liners. In a healthy world, only two of them are in the lineup (probably Engvall & Clifford). Only one of them (Gauthier) has produced at a sub-4th line rate this season. Otherwise, Engvall is producing like a 10F, and Clifford & Malgin like 11Fs, which is already an above average 4th line right there (nobody in the bottom 1/3 of 4th line production). So I'd argue their production levels, given their roles on the team, is actually fine, if not, above average.

The reason it is frustrating at the moment is because with Mikheyev & Johnsson out, one of these fourth line players is being forced to play in a third line role. At the end of the day though, these guys are here not to score, but to not be scored against, to play 8-12 minutes of low-event, low-risk hockey, and let our loaded top two lines & PP score the league leading amount of goals in the NHL.

 

[LeafGrief]

Would imagine injuries happen most years. Factor that in as part of the plan maybe?

Losing half your middle six for 50% of the season is in no way typical. Injuries happen, but we’ve been particularly unlucky this year.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

It's funny all the love Engvall gets with his like 12 goal pace, when Johnsson who got 20 in his rookie year everybody wants gone.

Johnsson plays with heart and works hard. I like Johnsson

 

[lottster14]

First of all, we are the highest scoring team in the league. So, calling out our scoring, in any way, shape, or form, as a problem, is kind of odd. Our problem this season has mainly been goaltending & team defense, as well as injury troubles. So, citing scoring, and where it is or isn't coming from, as an issue, is strange.

A few things to consider though.
- Injuries: Currently our 1st & 3rd most productive defenders (Rielly & Muzzin) are out, and our 6th & 8th most productive forwards (Mikheyev & Johnsson). That has a hit on depth production.
- Relative Stats: Not a definitive measure of depth scoring, but only three teams (MTL, VAN, & PHI) have ten players with 0.5+ ppg, and only three teams (VGK, COL, & NSH) have nine players. Toronto also has nine players with 0.5+ ppg. That has us t-4th in the NHL.
- Overall Performances: These are where our players rank (among forwards with 15+ GP) in points-per-game.

First Line (1-93)
13. Matthews (1.16)
16. Marner (1.14)
33. Tavares (0.95)
47. Nylander (0.86)
70. Hyman (0.76)

Second Line (94-186)
132. Mikheyev (0.59) *injured
157. Kapanen (0.54)
179. Johnsson (0.49) *injured

Third Line (187-279)
202. Spezza (0.45)
205. Kerfoot (0.44)

Fourth Line (280-372)
296. Engvall (0.33)
321. Malgin (0.29)
340. Clifford (0.25)

Sub-Replacement (373+)
384. Gauthier (0.20)
398. Petan (0.19)

So we have 11 forwards producing at NHL levels of production, 13 when we are healthy. Looking at our lines, we've got this:

Hyman (3F) - Matthews (1F) - Marner (1F) --> Three first liners, two #1 forwards
Kerfoot (7F) - Tavares (2F) - Nylander (2F) --> Two upper-tier first liners, a high-end third liner
Clifford (11F) - Spezza (7F) - Kapanen (5F) --> Two second liners, a fourth liner
Engvall (10F) - Gauthier (13F) - Malgin (11F) --> Two legit fourth liners, a sub-optimal centre

Because our team is so good on the top-end, the contributions of the bottom end can feel underwhelming, but stacked up against the rest of the league, they are really doing a fine job, especially considering the roles they play, without much PP time, lack of TOI in general, and lack of productive offensive linemates.

Thanks for this post.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Yeah, but the "nothing" that they give isn't exactly startling.

First of all, all four of those guys are fourth liners. In a healthy world, only two of them are in the lineup (probably Engvall & Clifford). Only one of them (Gauthier) has produced at a sub-4th line rate this season. Otherwise, Engvall is producing like a 10F, and Clifford & Malgin like 11Fs, which is already an above average 4th line right there (nobody in the bottom 1/3 of 4th line production). So I'd argue their production levels, given their roles on the team, is actually fine, if not, above average.

The reason it is frustrating at the moment is because with Mikheyev & Johnsson out, one of these fourth line players is being forced to play in a third line role. At the end of the day though, these guys are here not to score, but to not be scored against, to play 8-12 minutes of low-event, low-risk hockey, and let our loaded top two lines & PP score the league leading amount of goals in the NHL.

Fine and dandy then, i will take three Cliffords on the fourth line that play a energy brand if they don’t need to score. Fancy pants players can exit side door

 

[hockeyes]

Marner/Matthews/Tavares/Nylander all signed up to carry a bunch of nobodies around for 5+ years. I can't stand watching Goat and friends float around BUT I don't blame them, it's not their fault the team cannot afford to replace them with someone better.

 

[horner]

Clifford hits and is playing with soft wastes of skin, he needs energy guys with him and then we are talking

Yes I agree .
If Engval and Gaither would at least use there big bodies they would get more scoring opportunities.
Crash the net ect.
If you aren't scoring those two can do other things .
They have Mik coming back and korshkov with the Marlies .
They shouldn't feel to comfortable.
Engval signs his contract and stops playing .

 

[Suntouchable13]

Let me tell you something, the Malgin acquisition was a totally useless one. Not sure what they saw in him, and what was the point of getting him? What role does he fulfill here? Even if it was for a Marchement.

 

[Big Muddy]

Losing half your middle six for 50% of the season is in no way typical. Injuries happen, but we’ve been particularly unlucky this year.

I knew we lost AJ and Mikheyev for a good chunk, but trying to remember the 3rd player from our bottom six that was out for 41 games?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Let me tell you something, the Malgin acquisition was a totally useless one. Not sure what they saw in him, and what was the point of getting him? What role does he fulfill here? Even if it was for a Marchement.

I would reserve judgement on him personally. He has some nice jump and puck skills. Lacks chemistry and familiarity to system and teammates

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Marner/Matthews/Tavares/Nylander all signed up to carry a bunch of nobodies around for 5+ years. I can't stand watching Goat and friends float around BUT I don't blame them, it's not their fault the team cannot afford to replace them with someone better.

They can and will lol

 

[67Leafs67]

I would reserve judgement on him personally. He has some nice jump and puck skills. Lacks chemistry and familiarity to system and teammates

Yeah, he's scored at a 26 points/82 game pace over his career and is only 23 years old. Not to mention his defensive impacts have been solid in terms of isolated impact & WAR. Overall, he seems like a pretty useful addition to our bottom six for a pretty cheap price who is struggling with a bad shooting %, and like you mentioned, is adjusting to a new team/system, and playing in a new role seemingly every period.

 

[ULF_55]

how many games has engvall played?

and some patient fans are writing him off?

 

[Menzinger]

The lac

Marner/Matthews/Tavares/Nylander all signed up to carry a bunch of nobodies around for 5+ years. I can't stand watching Goat and friends float around BUT I don't blame them, it's not their fault the team cannot afford to replace them with someone better.

The thing is, the chepaest guys have been fine, Spezza, Soup, ect.

The underperformers are the 3 3ish mil 2md tier guys. Who really have been not prodcuing when needed.

And imo thats fairly unexpected

 

[Menzinger]

Let me tell you something, the Malgin acquisition was a totally useless one. Not sure what they saw in him, and what was the point of getting him? What role does he fulfill here? Even if it was for a Marchement.

Hes a depth/13th forward for a guy who was a non-asset for the club at this point.

 

[67Leafs67]

how many games has engvall played?

and some patient fans are writing him off?

First 23 GP --> 7G, 5A, 12P, 36 shots, 19.4 sh%
Last 23 GP --> 1G, 2A, 3P, 32 shots, 3.1 sh%

Key number is the last one. Funny how a little change in luck will change perception.

 

[tmlms13]

MJ on Leafs lunch went through this chunking the league.... 5v5 points per 60 minutes. Accounts for lack of power play time.

There are 93 first line forwards. 93 second line forwards etc

Leafs bottom 6 should all be between should rank between 197 and 279 or 280 and 372.

Min 20 games played, 431 qualified.

Spezza - 84
Kap - 108
Kerfoot - 128
Johnsson - 231
Engvall - 232
GOAT - 243

 

[LeafGrief]

I knew we lost AJ and Mikheyev for a good chunk, but trying to remember the 3rd player from our bottom six that was out for 41 games?

Meant to say middle six wingers, my bad. Was thinking two of the four.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Dumping Kadri was pretty much giving up a guaranteed 20-25 every season
Barrie and Kerfoot have combined for 14. That trade is looking so awful.

Kadri has scored over 20 goals, 3 times out of 8 seasons, lets not act as if he was scoring more than he was. Kapanen and Johnsson both surpassed him last season while also being cheaper, which plays a factor in him being expendable. Johnsson not being in the line up has certainly impacted secondary scoring. Also, its not as if Kerfoot is an offensive black hole, the guy scored 19 goals and 43 points in his rookie season in 79 games, and had 15 goals and 42 points in 78 games last season, which was 2 points less than Kadri. Kerfoot has played hurt with a fractured jaw and played out of position as a winger, that's not exactly a recipe for success but he's still on pace for 34-35 points this season , which isn't that bad for a million less. But they're not comparable really, Kerfoot is more suited for the 3rd line, Kadri wasn't.

Also, Barrie has 39 points this season, which is 5 points less than what Kadri had last season. This crap with Barrie is getting tiresome, just because Babcock didn't know how to play him, doesn't mean he hasn't been pretty good offensively under Keefe. I mean, he's on pace for 58 points under him for a reason.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

how many games has engvall played?

and some patient fans are writing him off?

Well cone on man, 5 hits last 10 games, 1 goal and 1 assist last 20. Thats a player that is unwilling to pay the price. Not much of a player so $70,000 on the Marlies suits me fine. He’s in over his head and won’t get his nose dirty. What are his positives lately, a healthy body is about it

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Kadri has scored over 20 goals, 3 times out of 8 seasons, lets not act as if he was scoring more than he was. Kapanen and Johnsson both surpassed him last season while also being cheaper, which plays a factor in him being expendable. Johnsson not being in the line up has certainly impacted secondary scoring. Also, its not as if Kerfoot is an offensive black hole, the guy scored 19 goals and 43 points in his rookie season in 79 games, and had 15 goals and 42 points in 78 games last season, which was 2 points less than Kadri. Kerfoot has played hurt with a fractured jaw and played out of position as a winger, that's not exactly a recipe for success but he's still on pace for 34-35 points this season , which isn't that bad for a million less. But they're not comparable really, Kerfoot is more suited for the 3rd line, Kadri wasn't.

Also, Barrie has 39 points this season, which is 5 points less than what Kadri had last season. This crap with Barrie is getting tiresome, just because Babcock didn't know how to play him, doesn't mean he hasn't been pretty good offensively under Keefe. I mean, he's on pace for 58 points under him for a reason.

What Barrie has done this year means little over the term of Kadri’s contract. Your argument dies as soon as Barrie leaves this off season. Kadri is twice the player Kerfoot is and thats the comparable bext season. I would keep Kadri every darn day of the week

 

[Bluebear]

Nothing physically either. They don’t wear down opponents. Likely they are to worn down from all the stick waving checks. Rarely do any take the body in any significant way. I think they actually believe they are safe on the team without getting their noses dirty. Thats got to change. I have no tolerance for entitlement on this team. Sick to death of watching these guys take the easy way out. Maybe they have to be out

See how their entitlement feels to them when they are making $70,000 to $100,000 in the minors

That's my problem generally with the team is that the non offensive guys don't play with much jam.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Apparently Primary scoring is non existent as well.