Post-Game Talk: Season over, Oilers lose

[Drivesaitl]

You would think this to be the case, but (working in this field), I've seen plenty of situations where "learned experience" and analytics come into direct conflict. Some people don't particularly like to have their past experience, intuition and assumptions challenged by information generated from systems that they don't entirely understand. When you think about the people who sit in some of the big chairs in an organization, this can have interesting consequences.



Indeed. All the tools are flawed to some extent, so it's a matter of figuring out what the good piece of it is, and then marrying/reconciling it to the other good pieces we have available. It's not necessarily about having the most sophisticating analytics system, it's more of how good a job the organization does at integrating all the different sources of info together to create a more complete picture.

Excellent reply. So rare in these discussions on analytics. Personally I LOVE information. I've been a stat hound since I was a kid. Even connected to that my favorite part of a hockey card as a kid was looking at the backside of all the player stats.

My response to your first paragraph is that all new theories, metrics, get challenged. This is necessary in any enquiry endeavor. The questions, challenges, rebukes, reviews, even rejection of hypothesis are requisite in growth of knowledge. So that the conflict and criticism needs to be there. Analytics is not at the stage where it supplants other learned experience. Another comment is the analytics community hasn't always done a great job making their metrics, tables etc. easily understood. On many sources you could be looking at charts with say 24 columns and they aren't identified or explained. I've seen often without even a key or legend describing what the columns specifically are or the calculations involved in the numbers and metrics. Largely, description of the tools is not found.

2nd paragraph agreed.

 

[Duke74]

Yikes, That's all I have to say about this post.

Care to elaborate on your assessment? I'm sorry, but pointless and -4 in an elimination game isn't even close to good enough. And if you go four games back, 1 point and -7. To me, that effort doesn't seem like someone who takes winning seriously or at least realizes that winning takes hard work and not lollygagging through life.

 

[Stoneman89]

I don't see how anyone could raise Skinner on a pedestal or be ultra critical of Campbell.

They should be on equal footing now.

Big difference is that one was brought in to be a difference maker, given a massive long term salary, and expected to provide championship goaltending in the playoffs. Instead, he shit the bed so badly throughout an entire regular season, he simply could not be trusted in crucial playoff games.

The other one was given a modest raise on his contract and was expected to play backup and continue to refine and learn the game at it's highest level, and ultimately be the one to be the starter far down the road. Instead, player number one was so terrible that player 2 was forced to carry the load and get them to the playoffs, and then had to be force fed in the playoffs.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The Devils are one of the youngest teams in the League and most of their roster has a noticeable lack of playoff experience. To suggest that it was a systems problem seems to me to be rather presumptuous.

So you have watched the Devils enough to determine that the systems they use in the regular season just wont work in the playoffs?
How many regular season games did you watch?
What system do they use?

Personally I tie the Devils (finally) emerging to their decade walk in the wilderness hoovering up elite pedigree lottery talent which has finally coalesced into a viable base able to compete. Free agent spend on a big 1D in Hamilton. Spin off Hall for a volume package. A couple nice player finds too. But fail big, long enough and the draft history reinforces this is where you'll find your franchise cornerstone pieces. Now, how they utilize analytics now for games, systems, and further talent procurement are worth discussion. But again what they finally achieved was guided by an old schooler head coach in Lindy Ruff.

There's value in new ways to assess all elements of this game whether R&D, operations, systems, optimizing player performance. Have a strong, sound analytics function guided and directed by experienced, progressive hockey minds should be incorporated to help make all elements of a billion dollar enterprise better. It's another tool that can help unlock value in many forms. But it's not the discovery of fire as a portion of hockey fandom want to push as a too often arrogant narrative.

 

[guymez]

Personally I tie the Devils (finally) emerging to their decade walk in the wilderness hoovering up elite pedigree lottery talent which has finally coalesced into a viable base able to compete. Free agent spend on a big 1D in Hamilton. Spin off Hall for a volume package. A couple nice player finds too. But fail big, long enough and the draft history reinforces this is where you'll find your franchise cornerstone pieces. Now, how they utilize analytics now for games, systems, and further talent procurement are worth discussion. But again what they finally achieved was guided by an old schooler head coach in Lindy Ruff.

There's value in new ways to assess all elements of this game whether R&D, operations, systems, optimizing player performance. Have a strong, sound analytics function guided and directed by experienced, progressive hockey minds should be incorporated to help make all elements of a billion dollar enterprise better. It's another tool that can help unlock value in many forms. But it's not the discovery of fire as a portion of hockey fandom want to push as a too often arrogant narrative.

Well put. Couldnt agree more.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Well put. Couldnt agree more.

I read a good book about the Boston Red Sox organizational model and their incorporation of analytics into their business. An absolute vital requirement is the ability to marry a conservative, tradition based culture with a new form of organization hires and analytic function which delivers a new lens through which to assess frankly all aspects of performance to achieve optimal results across all areas. The Sox identified as a key role a critical bridge type 'authority' personnel who had the street credibility of major league experience and game knowledge wed with a progressive, curious mind that had strong data abilities and communications skills through which to help evangelize the cultural change through all levels of their system (minor pro) and organization. Makes sense as a really important way to operationalize new thinking in tradition stuck cultures.

 

[guymez]

I read a good book about the Boston Red Sox organizational model and their incorporation of analytics into their business. An absolute vital requirement is the ability to marry a conservative, tradition based culture with a new form of organization hires and analytic function which delivers a new lens through which to assess frankly all aspects of performance to achieve optimal results across all areas. The Sox identified as a key role a critical bridge type 'authority' personnel who had the street credibility of major league experience and game knowledge wed with a progressive, curious mind that had strong data abilities and communications skills through which to help evangelize the cultural change through all levels of their system (minor pro) and organization. Makes sense as a really important way to operationalize new thinking in tradition stuck cultures.

Interesting.
Just curious...when (what year) did the Red Sox incorporate that approach?

 

[CupofOil]

Care to elaborate on your assessment? I'm sorry, but pointless and -4 in an elimination game isn't even close to good enough. And if you go four games back, 1 point and -7. To me, that effort doesn't seem like someone who takes winning seriously or at least realizes that winning takes hard work and not lollygagging through life.

This part..

Hard to feel sorry for him crying during the interview when he didn't exactly leave everything out there in this game or the one before it, or the one before that one. Oh well. He's probably over it by now, thinking of spending all summer at his vacation home in Spain with his dog and plastic GF. Maybe that's what he wanted in the first place and winning isn't important as long as you can have fun at the end of the day.

You didn't just talk about his performance. You made it personal, saying he doesn't care about winning then trashing his girlfriend. Was that even necessary?

 

[McAsuno]

Care to elaborate on your assessment? I'm sorry, but pointless and -4 in an elimination game isn't even close to good enough. And if you go four games back, 1 point and -7. To me, that effort doesn't seem like someone who takes winning seriously or at least realizes that winning takes hard work and not lollygagging through life.

Idk if you agree or not, but after that piece of shit gaslighting in Pietrangelo tried to chop his arm off, Draisaitl didn't look the same.
Also attacking his partner is extremely unnecessary, be better than that dude. You have more than any right to criticize a player's performance on ice, but leave their family out of it. That's plain gutless.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Interesting.
Just curious...when (what year) did the Red Sox incorporate that approach?

Here's a link to the book: Homegrown: How the Red Sox Built a Champion from the Gr…

As Boston Globe baseball reporter Alex Speier reveals, the Sox’ success wasn’t a fluke—nor was it guaranteed. It was the result of careful, patient planning and shrewd decision-making that allowed Boston to develop a golden generation of prospects—and then build upon that talented core to assemble a juggernaut. Speier has covered the key players—Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., and many others—since the beginning of their professional careers, as they rose through the minor leagues and ultimately became the heart of this historic championship squad. Drawing upon hundreds of interviews and years of reporting, Homegrown is the definitive look at the construction of an extraordinary team.

It is a story that offers startling insights for baseball fans of any team, and anyone looking for the secret to building a successful organization. Why do many highly touted prospects fail, while others rise out of obscurity to become transcendent? How can franchises help their young talent, in whom they’ve often invested tens of millions of dollars, reach their full potential? And how can management balance long-term aims with the constant pressure to win now?

Part insider’s account of one of the greatest baseball teams ever, part meditation on how to build a winner, Homegrown offers an illuminating look into how the best of the best are built.

 

[Old Boys Club]

Hopefully next year the coach will stop running McDrai 25+ mins a night for 3/4 of regular season games. Roll the lines and establish some chemistry with the bottom 6'ers and it will pay off in the playoffs when guys start to get fatigued.

 

[Despote]

It was a total no-show from the top-6 wingers. RNH, Kane, Hyman, Yamamoto lost the series for us, along with Skinner.



Much more even contributions from Vegas.

 

[Oilers in NS]

Problem is no one in the system except XB is top6 material.
Broberg is at best a #4, but I dont know if he is a fit here.
The league is that though, that every D prospect is bottom pair or over their head.
At marketbthere is just Severson and Mayfield but both are resignikg with their teams. Dumba is Ceci like. I dont even know how many misstakes a Nurse Dumba pair would make. Is Dumba worth a gamble?

At RW, Connor Brown is a good fit. DEbrincat Im sure of, even if he lacks size. But theybwould need a Toews or Lehtinen like player at 2RW.
Holloway is a 3rd liner.Colin Wilson reborn.

Lavoie will probably start in AHL. He will clear waivers.

We are all waitingnfornXB.

23-24
Skinner
Backup

D intact to trade deadline atbleast

Kane McD Hyman
Nuge Leon C Brown-until XB breaks.
Fogele McLeod Bjugstad
Holloway Ryan Janmark-until Lavoie breaks.
Kostin
Whatever Holland finds as a 14th forward at FA.

Is there any readonable hope that Hamblin can turn into a player?


It has not always been that way. Good GMs have luck. And there was fewer teams back then, easier to make a move you want. Good GMs in the past has all done bad moves.

We almost signed Connor Brown. Maybe we will now

 

[Despote]

More data on performance by Oilers in the playoffs.

https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/edmontonjournal/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-15-at-3.32.32-PM.png

 

[T-Funk]

Hopefully next year the coach will stop running McDrai 25+ mins a night for 3/4 of regular season games. Roll the lines and establish some chemistry with the bottom 6'ers and it will pay off in the playoffs when guys start to get fatigued.

I would start every pp with line 2 in the regular season. We know pp1 is deadly. We need the second unit to be finely tuned and deadly when pp1 gets shut down or go too heavy on the 5v5 minutes. Game 1 through 82 this team needs to buy in. If they're so devastated, they might actually do it for once. Nurse (or whoever, but we know it's Nurse) abandons his post to go chase someone randomly? You sit a couple shifts. It's not punishment, it's buy-in.

Or Woodcroft can buy everyone icecreams and let the inmates run the asylum again.

 

[FDBluth]

McDavid and Draisaitl scored 21 goals between them in 12 games. No other forward scored more than 3. Add that to little things like tiny spots where focus was lost in games, goaltending lapses, bits of puck luck or penalty luck/trouble, and that wins or loses a series in hockey.

 

[Whyme]

McDavid and Draisaitl scored 21 goals between them in 12 games. No other forward scored more than 3. Add that to little things like tiny spots where focus was lost in games, goaltending lapses, bits of puck luck or penalty luck/trouble, and that wins or loses a series in hockey.

It may be a tough topic for some but McDavid scored 2+5 ES points and was -1. I do understand the opponents do all they can to stop him so it's not easy, but still.

He was stellar on the PP and in fact his ES play is one area where the team can do better next year. If McDavid plays at his best level on ES too that'll certainly improve the team a lot. With his skill Im sure that'll be the case next year.

 

[Duke74]

This part..

Hard to feel sorry for him crying during the interview when he didn't exactly leave everything out there in this game or the one before it, or the one before that one. Oh well. He's probably over it by now, thinking of spending all summer at his vacation home in Spain with his dog and plastic GF. Maybe that's what he wanted in the first place and winning isn't important as long as you can have fun at the end of the day.

You didn't just talk about his performance. You made it personal, saying he doesn't care about winning then trashing his girlfriend. Was that even necessary?

I'm sure that he wants to win at some level but I'm starting to question just how badly he wants the cup. It's been pointed out that a stronger commitment to defence would help, but I don't see him making changes to that end. I still don't understand the huge drop-off from the first 8 games to the last four. A player that desperately wants to win runs through walls to do so rather than whimpering out with a pathetic performance.

Idk if you agree or not, but after that piece of shit gaslighting in Pietrangelo tried to chop his arm off, Draisaitl didn't look the same.
Also attacking his partner is extremely unnecessary, be better than that dude. You have more than any right to criticize a player's performance on ice, but leave their family out of it. That's plain gutless.

Draisaitl's poor play started in Game 3 and the Pietrangelo slash came at the end of Game 4. No doubt the slash hampered him even further but something wasn't right starting from the beginning of Game 2.

I don't know anything about his personal life and shouldn't make assumptions. I just get the sense that he seems more invested in having fun than working hard over the offseason. Apologies to his GF and hopefully she's supportive of his career.

 

[BlackDogg]

More data on performance by Oilers in the playoffs.

https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/edmontonjournal/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-15-at-3.32.32-PM.png

RNH was absolutely brutal, do you have it for last season's playoffs?

 

[McAsuno]

I'm sure that he wants to win at some level but I'm starting to question just how badly he wants the cup. It's been pointed out that a stronger commitment to defence would help, but I don't see him making changes to that end. I still don't understand the huge drop-off from the first 8 games to the last four. A player that desperately wants to win runs through walls to do so rather than whimpering out with a pathetic performance.


Draisaitl's poor play started in Game 3 and the Pietrangelo slash came at the end of Game 4. No doubt the slash hampered him even further but something wasn't right starting from the beginning of Game 2.

I don't know anything about his personal life and shouldn't make assumptions. I just get the sense that he seems more invested in having fun than working hard over the offseason. Apologies to his GF and hopefully she's supportive of his career.

I don't think anybody aside from the Foegele, Ryan, Mcleod line played well in G3 in all honesty. That being said, the team battled injuries. Its crazy that Foegele was playing injured since February, and Kane was playing with a broken finger. But yeah, the off ice talk in regards to family members of hockey players should never be mentioned. Glad you apologized for it.

 

[guymez]

Here's a link to the book: Homegrown: How the Red Sox Built a Champion from the Gr…

As Boston Globe baseball reporter Alex Speier reveals, the Sox’ success wasn’t a fluke—nor was it guaranteed. It was the result of careful, patient planning and shrewd decision-making that allowed Boston to develop a golden generation of prospects—and then build upon that talented core to assemble a juggernaut. Speier has covered the key players—Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., and many others—since the beginning of their professional careers, as they rose through the minor leagues and ultimately became the heart of this historic championship squad. Drawing upon hundreds of interviews and years of reporting, Homegrown is the definitive look at the construction of an extraordinary team.

It is a story that offers startling insights for baseball fans of any team, and anyone looking for the secret to building a successful organization. Why do many highly touted prospects fail, while others rise out of obscurity to become transcendent? How can franchises help their young talent, in whom they’ve often invested tens of millions of dollars, reach their full potential? And how can management balance long-term aims with the constant pressure to win now?

Part insider’s account of one of the greatest baseball teams ever, part meditation on how to build a winner, Homegrown offers an illuminating look into how the best of the best are built.

Very interesting.
It seems to me that analytics are perfectly suited to Baseball and as a result can be more heavily weighted for player assessment than say a sport like hockey. That said its still a very illuminating tool for hockey as well.
Credit goes to people like Dellow (yeah I know a lot of people dont like him) because he was one of the early influencers for analytics to be more integrated in player evaluation. he helped take it to another level.
I respect that immensely because it represents a shift in how to view players and also view the game as a whole.

Makes watching hockey a little more dynamic IMO.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Very interesting.
It seems to me that analytics are perfectly suited to Baseball and as a result can be more heavily weighted for player assessment than say a sport like hockey. That said its still a very illuminating tool for hockey as well.
Credit goes to people like Dellow (yeah I know a lot of people dont like him) because he was one of the early influencers for analytics to be more integrated in player evaluation. he helped take it to another level.
I respect that immensely because it represents a shift in how to view players and also view the game as a whole.

Makes watching hockey a little more dynamic IMO.

Baseball and hockey are night and day. Baseball is highly structured, slower and regimented game based around 1 on 1 engagement between pitcher and batter and constant repeating events going around bases. Hockey is a high speed collision sport with a very high degree of chaos. A ton of noise which makes it more challenging to capture and to pull out the so-called advance statistics.

In terms of adoption, I feel baseball is in a mature phase where advance statistics and measures have become established to a fine point that includes sophisticated camera tracking in every ballpark and extending into minor leagues to some degree. Hockey I consider kinda still in an early adopter phase which I call 'the Wild West' where hobbyists have been leading pursuit ... which is fun and really great to explore new elements of examining hockey's complexity in search of value. But I find the challenge is there's often an arrogance that comes with many of the individuals which is off putting along with a lack of deep training like data scientist background to filter out often wrong conclusions that happen with raw, imperfect data. Some of the wild westers have leveraged their hobby into jobs but I think as the field increasingly becomes more sophisticated and data more true with technology innovation they may be displaced by trained professional data scientists. Dallas Eakins is an example of a coach who was grossly overhyped for his adoption of Corsi and early stage advance stats who was found out and his systems badly exposed when given his first NHL head coaching gig in Edmonton. Gotta admit, not a fan of Dellow when he posted here. I'm not confident in some of the conclusions made often with certainty because I'm not sure of the integrity of data source being used and the quality of interpretation being with it.

My takeaway from the Red Sox book was that conduit position that married two rare characteristics, a data science trained knowledge with the experience of playing at an elite level. Perfect marriage of the technical/science and experiential to help guide the development process and culture adoption of innovation informed by advance statistical knowledge.

Moneyball was a great catalyst to initiate the mainstreaming of gleaning new insights via data crunch in sports in pursuit of value and competitive advantages within largely conservative, static business models.

 

[Soundwave]

More data on performance by Oilers in the playoffs.

https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/edmontonjournal/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-15-at-3.32.32-PM.png

RNH and Yamamoto

Also ... we probably should keep Kulak.

 

[Duke74]

It was a total no-show from the top-6 wingers. RNH, Kane, Hyman, Yamamoto lost the series for us, along with Skinner.



Much more even contributions from Vegas.

I think this goes to show how badly Yamamoto sewered that second line in flubbing chances. 7 chance assists for Draisaitl with only one real assist. Guys like Ryan and Foegele probably could have been elevated in the lineup, but Woodcroft.

 

[guymez]

Baseball and hockey are night and day. Baseball is highly structured, slower and regimented game based around 1 on 1 engagement between pitcher and batter and constant repeating events going around bases. Hockey is a high speed collision sport with a very high degree of chaos. A ton of noise which makes it more challenging to capture and to pull out the so-called advance statistics.

In terms of adoption, I feel baseball is in a mature phase where advance statistics and measures have become established to a fine point that includes sophisticated camera tracking in every ballpark and extending into minor leagues to some degree. Hockey I consider kinda still in an early adopter phase which I call 'the Wild West' where hobbyists have been leading pursuit ... which is fun and really great to explore new elements of examining hockey's complexity in search of value. But I find the challenge is there's often an arrogance that comes with many of the individuals which is off putting along with a lack of deep training like data scientist background to filter out often wrong conclusions that happen with raw, imperfect data. Some of the wild westers have leveraged their hobby into jobs but I think as the field increasingly becomes more sophisticated and data more true with technology innovation they may be displaced by trained professional data scientists. Dallas Eakins is an example of a coach who was grossly overhyped for his adoption of Corsi and early stage advance stats who was found out and his systems badly exposed when given his first NHL head coaching gig in Edmonton. Gotta admit, not a fan of Dellow when he posted here. I'm not confident in some of the conclusions made often with certainty because I'm not sure of the integrity of data source being used and the quality of interpretation being with it.

My takeaway from the Red Sox book was that conduit position that married two rare characteristics, a data science trained knowledge with the experience of playing at an elite level. Perfect marriage of the technical/science and experiential to help guide the development process and culture adoption of innovation informed by advance statistical knowledge.

Moneyball was a great catalyst to initiate the mainstreaming of gleaning new insights via data crunch in sports in pursuit of value and competitive advantages within largely conservative, static business models.

No much to disagree with here and having the ability to add (in terms of information) to what we already know about the game should always be embraced.
I actually agree with you about the arrogance of Dellow (Mudcrutch79) and other posters back in the day.
It was the early days of this data and I think part of what Mudcrutch and company were dealing with was a lot of resistance and sometimes an outright hostility to the information they were presenting.
Some of which still exists today with people like Mark Spector who are still quite dismissive of the idea of analytics having value..
So I think that played a role in some of the interchanges on here.
Heck...I had a few run ins with Igor a few times myself because I reacted to his arrogant posturing. He wasnt the only one either...I cant remember the user name of the others though.
So while their responses on here showed a significant amount of emotional immaturity (which I am not excusing) I guess you could say that I understand it.

I guess I just dont want to let the arrogance of that time cloud my appreciation for what now appears to be an integral part of how the game is analyzed. IMO they (especially Dellow) deserve some credit for that.