Post-Game Talk: Season over, Oilers lose

[Drivesaitl]

Analytics is a tool and an important on IMO.
It appears (by all reports) that it isnt something Holland utilizes all that often. The Oilers dont even have an analytics dept.

I think thats a mistake.

The best team in recent memory, Tampa, by reports use their own devised analytics. Other clubs have done this as well. We don't even know specifically what those tools are.

For sure they're not using exclusively some of the dumb tools we see posted online. They have their own systems and numbers they run which of course they keep secret.

heres the thing. Early analytics advocate like Dellow, who was "Mudcrutch" posting here, were briefly employed by NHL teams to further their work. Lets jsut say the results weren't great. Anybody out there posturing analytics on some board wouldn't be doing it if they found the secret sauce. They would be quickly scooped up and employed by teams that wouldn't let go.

Analtytics is a tool. But many of the advocates have felt its THE tool. Many of them have dissed hockey scouts that have been in the business of discerning hockey players for 50yrs.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

The best team in recent memory, Tampa, by reports use their own devised analytics. Other clubs have done this as well. We don't even know specifically what those tools are.

For sure they're not using exclusively some of the dumb tools we see posted online. They have their own systems and numbers they run which of course they keep secret.

heres the thing. Early analytics advocate like Dellow, who was "Mudcrutch" posting here, were briefly employed by NHL teams to further their work. Lets jsut say the results weren't great. Anybody out there posturing analytics on some board wouldn't be doing it if they found the secret sauce. They would be quickly scooped up and employed by teams that wouldn't let go.

Analtytics is a tool. But many of the advocates have felt its THE tool. Many of them have dissed hockey scouts that have been in the business of discerning hockey players for 50yrs.

Agreed - it is a tool in a toolbox, albeit an important tool.

But to be fair, a lot of people in hockey have also discarded it as well, kinda in the same way the hard-core analytic advocates have discarded traditional hockey scouting. Ultimately, its about marrying the two.

 

[guymez]

The best team in recent memory, Tampa, by reports use their own devised analytics. Other clubs have done this as well. We don't even know specifically what those tools are.

For sure they're not using exclusively some of the dumb tools we see posted online. They have their own systems and numbers they run which of course they keep secret.

heres the thing. Early analytics advocate like Dellow, who was "Mudcrutch" posting here, were briefly employed by NHL teams to further their work. Lets jsut say the results weren't great. Anybody out there posturing analytics on some board wouldn't be doing it if they found the secret sauce. They would be quickly scooped up and employed by teams that wouldn't let go.

Analtytics is a tool. But many of the advocates have felt its THE tool. Many of them have dissed hockey scouts that have been in the business of discerning hockey players for 50yrs.

Well...you dont know what your talking about regarding Dellow.
Best you do some research before posting.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Agreed - it is a tool in a toolbox, albeit an important tool.

But to be fair, a lot of people in hockey have also discarded it as well, kinda in the same way the hard-core analytic advocates have discarded traditional hockey scouting. Ultimately, its about marrying the two.

The Oilers often decide things using their gut instead of any sort of actual data.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Well...you dont know what your talking about regarding Dellow.
Best you do some research before posting.

meh. Not a fan. Everything I thought about Dellows was confirmed during his Oilers tenure. Not great working with others.

Is he still writing for the Athletic? I don't read paywalls or subscribe.

Last I heard he was consulting with The Devils.

He's definitely not my cup of tea.

 

[guymez]

meh. Not a fan. Everything I thought about Dellows was confirmed during his Oilers tenure. Not great working with others.

Is he still writing for the Athletic? I don't read paywalls or subscribe.

Last I heard he was consulting with The Devils.

He's definitely not my cup of tea.

Whether you are a fan or not you were wrong in what you stated.
He has been the Director of Analytics (VP of Hockey Analytics) with the Devils since 2019.
The Devils are a very good very young upcoming team.
He has played an important role in that.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Whether you are a fan or not you were wrong in what you stated.
He has been the Director of Analytics (VP of Hockey Analytics) with the Devils since 2019.
The Devils are a very good very young upcoming team.
He has played an important role in that.

Fair enough. I lost interest in even following him. I knew he'd been with the Devils, just don't know if he's still there.

I'm critical of the Devils team overall. I think they've taken a team format that just doesn't work so well for playoff hockey. My take is the team will do very well in regular seasons and struggle more in playoffs. This year they got superheated goaltending and some out of body experiences. Still, Carolina spanked them good and proper.

 

[guymez]

Fair enough. I lost interest in even following him. I knew he'd been with the Devils, just don't know if he's still there.

I'm critical of the Devils team overall. I think they've taken a team format that just doesn't work so well for playoff hockey. My take is the team will do very well in regular seasons and struggle more in playoffs. This year they got superheated goaltending and some out of body experiences. Still, Carolina spanked them good and proper.

The Devils are one of the youngest teams in the League and most of their roster has a noticeable lack of playoff experience. To suggest that it was a systems problem seems to me to be rather presumptuous.

So you have watched the Devils enough to determine that the systems they use in the regular season just wont work in the playoffs?
How many regular season games did you watch?
What system do they use?

 

[Drivesaitl]

The Devils are one of the youngest teams in the League and most of their roster has a noticeable lack of playoff experience. To suggest that it was a systems problem seems to me to be rather presumptuous.

So you have watched the Devils enough to determine that the systems they use in the regular season just wont work in the playoffs?
How many regular season games did you watch?

I never mentioned systems once. The Devils assemblage of forwards is very small. This doesn't bode well for playoff hockey. Which I stated prior, and which came true.

Small players that are age 25 don't grow to become large players later in age, lol. The Devils draft forwards on the small side and with intent because they're putting priority on skill package instead of compete larger package.

The NHL playoffs is favoring larger clubs for eons. The analytics squad constantly try to refute that. Even Tampa needed to bulk up their lineup considerably bringing in physically strong and larger players to bag the trophy. They weren't getting it without it.

I look through the Devils whole forward roster and what I largely see is lack of size. its a problem in playoffs. its one they won't be able to surmount without trade and changing up their club. It would be worse for them if they were playing in the more physical WC.

 

[guymez]

I never mentioned systems once. The Devils assemblage of forwards is very small. This doesn't bode well for playoff hockey. Which I stated prior, and which came true.

Small players that are age 25 don't grow to become large players later in age, lol. The Devils draft forwards on the small side and with intent because they're putting priority on skill package instead of compete larger package.

The NHL playoffs is favoring larger clubs for eons. The analytics squad constantly try to refute that. Even Tampa needed to bulk up their lineup considerably bringing in physically strong and larger players to bag the trophy. They weren't getting it without it.

I look through the Devils whole forward roster and what I largely see is lack of size. its a problem in playoffs. its one they won't be able to surmount without trade and changing up their club. It would be worse for them if they were playing in the more physical WC.

You do realize that the Devils average 1 inch taller and 1 lb less than the team you lauded in the Carolina Hurricanes...right?

 

[Drivesaitl]

You do realize that the Devils average 1 inch taller and 1 lb less than the team you lauded in the Carolina Hurricanes...right?

I don't laude the Carolina Hurricanes either.

 

[sportsdynasty]

Stuart Skinner one of the worst playoff goalie performances of all-time. Big mistake by the coach not to play Jack Campbell.

 

[Duke74]

The Oilers often decide things using their gut instead of any sort of actual data.

Or coaches' unwavering loyalty to certain players that lie somewhere on the spectrum between completely useless and catastrophic liability.

 

[guymez]

I don't laude the Carolina Hurricanes either.

I think that you just dont like Dellow and you're looking for something to dislike the team he is connected with...even if you have to make something up.

 

[BlackDogg]

Ouch

 

[guymez]

Ouch

Nurses contract is an anchor.

 

[The Panther]

Stuart Skinner one of the worst playoff goalie performances of all-time. Big mistake by the coach not to play Jack Campbell.

Stuart Skinner is a rookie and was trusted by the coaching staff to start over Campbell, which should tell you something. Also, you can't be "one of the worst playoff goalies of all-time" with two rounds of playoff experience after your rookie year. So, dial it down a bit. Many Hall of Famers looked bad their first time in the playoffs.

As to Campbell, he was one of the worst goalies of all time over a much larger sample size -- the regular season.

 

[DFAC]

Stuart Skinner one of the worst playoff goalie performances of all-time. Big mistake by the coach not to play Jack Campbell.

Just shows you how little confidence they had in Campbell and rightfully so

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Ouch

Only point to that is how does Nurse end up +26 on the season when he was below water with is main partner? Same with Ceci at +11.

Is this one of those situations where Nurse did much better when paired with anyone else, and Ceci also did well when he got away from facing top competition?


It was a meh-at-best shutdown pairing, I will never understand why Woody and Manson thought it was a good idea to constantly give it some of the most difficult usage in the league.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Just shows you how little confidence they had in Campbell and rightfully so

Just goes to show your bias against Campbell. Do you now hold the same bias against Skinner for his playoff performance which is far more critical than the regular season.

Only point to that is how does Nurse end up +26 on the season when he was below water with is main partner? Same with Ceci at +11.

Is this one of those situations where Nurse did much better when paired with anyone else, and Ceci also did well when he got away from facing top competition?


It was a meh-at-best shutdown pairing, I will never understand why Woody and Manson thought it was a good idea to constantly give it some of the most difficult usage in the league.

Posters have to consider the systems incorporated by Woodcroft and Manson are not all that great. The shine is tarnished. I would not be shocked in the least if they were let go.

I don't see why an upgrade in coaching isn't possible. At the very least an X's and O's specialist should be brought in to augment the coaching staff.

 

[CupofOil]

6. How does Draisaitl transform from Mario Lemieux to an extra forward in a third-tier German beer league? It was like after the second game of this series, a switch was completely flipped. Since the Pietrangelo slash occurred at the end of Game 4, that wasn't entirely the cause, although that likely exacerbated things. Hard to feel sorry for him crying during the interview when he didn't exactly leave everything out there in this game or the one before it, or the one before that one. Oh well. He's probably over it by now, thinking of spending all summer at his vacation home in Spain with his dog and plastic GF. Maybe that's what he wanted in the first place and winning isn't important as long as you can have fun at the end of the day.

Yikes, That's all I have to say about this post.

 

[trick91]

Stuart Skinner one of the worst playoff goalie performances of all-time. Big mistake by the coach not to play Jack Campbell.

Bingo. This isnt a shot at Skinner either, hes a rookie and got weaker as the playoffs went on. He is not used to playing that many games in a row.

We had Campbell coming in and playing well during his relief appearances. Made no sense not to play him in game 6.

 

[Broberg Speed]

I don't see how anyone could raise Skinner on a pedestal or be ultra critical of Campbell.

They should be on equal footing now.

 

[Exile of Atlantis]

heres the thing. Early analytics advocate like Dellow, who was "Mudcrutch" posting here, were briefly employed by NHL teams to further their work. Lets jsut say the results weren't great. Anybody out there posturing analytics on some board wouldn't be doing it if they found the secret sauce. They would be quickly scooped up and employed by teams that wouldn't let go.

You would think this to be the case, but (working in this field), I've seen plenty of situations where "learned experience" and analytics come into direct conflict. Some people don't particularly like to have their past experience, intuition and assumptions challenged by information generated from systems that they don't entirely understand. When you think about the people who sit in some of the big chairs in an organization, this can have interesting consequences.

Analtytics is a tool. But many of the advocates have felt its THE tool. Many of them have dissed hockey scouts that have been in the business of discerning hockey players for 50yrs.

Indeed. All the tools are flawed to some extent, so it's a matter of figuring out what the good piece of it is, and then marrying/reconciling it to the other good pieces we have available. It's not necessarily about having the most sophisticating analytics system, it's more of how good a job the organization does at integrating all the different sources of info together to create a more complete picture.

 

[McHelpus]

I'm still shocked we lost. We really blew it this year...