Waived: Scrivens Waived, Clears, Assigned to Condors

[McDNicks17]

Well it doesn't matter then even if I do break it down as that's your conclusion. A full 27% of GA occurred in the last 12 games. which represents only 21% of his total GP. That's a statistically significant difference whether you want to refuse looking at it or not.

His GAA in the last 12 games was 3.83, significantly worse than his season, whether you want to look at that or not.

Here's how his months ranked statistically.

1. February
2. December
3. October
4. January
5. March
6. November
7. April

Do you see a pattern?

 

[Raoul Duke]

I remember him being especially terrible in the season opener vs Calgary and then his second start at Arizona was even worse. He kept coming out to play the puck and giving it away.

Replacement's numbers are a little off. I think he counted Scrivens' relief appearance in Nashville as a start.

First 12 starts: 4-7-1, .899 sv%, 3.03 GAA, 1 shutout, 2 one-goal games

That sounds closer to what I recall.

 

[guymez]

Here's how his months ranked statistically.

1. February
2. December
3. October
4. January
5. March
6. November
7. April

Do you see a pattern?

Which statistic does this ranking represent?

 

[Replacement*]

Here's how his months ranked statistically.

1. February
2. December
3. October
4. January
5. March
6. November
7. April

Do you see a pattern?

I don't buy what you put up there and you didn't show any backing numbers to where you arrived at that.

Scrivens let in 32 goals in 10GP in March. 3.2GAA

Scrivens only had to play 6 games in February which is indicative of getting some rest and his performance improving as a result. Not too curiously his best month.

Even accepting your numbers Scrivens 2 out of 3 worst months were at the end of the year.

you can scoff all you want. My expressed theory is that Scrivens was overworked here in seeing a lot of rubber on this very poor defensive club. He played 57 games which is around 15 more than the team had expected him to be playing going into the season. He and Fasth were supposed to share the load.

I'm hardpressed to understand why you wouldn't figure that 57 games with this club last year was a hard assignment with some potential burnout attached to it. The numbers even show this. Take out the 3 game outlier at start of season and Scrives started out well and really hit a wall by March.

 

[McDNicks17]

Which statistic does this ranking represent?

SV%, but obviously GAA is nearly the same.

Numbers are here.

 

[McDNicks17]

I don't buy what you put up there and you didn't show any backing numbers to where you arrived at that.

Scrivens let in 32 goals in 10GP in March. 3.2GAA

Scrivens only had to play 6 games in February which is indicative of getting some rest and his performance improving as a result. Not too curiously his best month.

Even accepting your numbers Scrivens 2 out of 3 worst months were at the end of the year.

you can scoff all you want. My expressed theory is that Scrivens was overworked here in seeing a lot of rubber on this very poor defensive club. He played 57 games which is around 15 more than the team had expected him to be playing going into the season. He and Fasth were supposed to share the load.

I'm hardpressed to understand why you wouldn't figure that 57 games with this club last year was a hard assignment with some potential burnout attached to it. The numbers even show this. Take out the 3 game outlier at start of season and Scrives started out well and really hit a wall by March.

There's nothing to buy. The stats are as plain as day.

Adding your own made up context and cherry picking games to fit your agenda doesn't discount them.

 

[Replacement*]

SV%, but obviously GAA is nearly the same.

Numbers are here.

Those numbers confirm btw that Scrivens GAA was less than 3 most of the year and that he got buried at the end in March and April which were bad months for him.

A goalie went from being around 2.95 GAA to finishing 3.16. That's again as statistically significant difference.

 

[Replacement*]

There's nothing to buy. The stats are as plain as day.

Adding your own made up context and cherry picking games to fit your agenda doesn't discount them.

Cherry picking what? That March and April were were among the worst months for Scrivens. Real world correlation is very rarely seen in a straight line scatter plot. To calculate correlation involves the mean of all the samples (games) scattered around the straight line plot.

There is correlation here and there is statistically significant differences in Scrivens before March, and at seasons end. You're not interested in even considering that though.

 

[McDNicks17]

Those numbers confirm btw that Scrivens GAA was less than 3 most of the year and that he got buried at the end in March and April which were bad months for him.

A goalie went from being around 2.95 GAA to finishing 3.16. That's again as statistically significant difference.

Do you think the 5.39 GAA from the four games in April have anything to do with that?

The first three games are outliers, but the last four are indicators?

 

[Replacement*]

Do you think the 5.39 GAA from the four games in April have anything to do with that?

The first three games are outliers, but the last four are indicators?

ALL of the March and APRIL sample has GAA well and above what Scrivens had the rest of the year. ALL of those games were in addition to the expected 40 or so games Scrivens was expected to play last year.

If Fasth holds his own on this team and isn't such a pariah he ends up sharing the load of games and Scrivens likely finishes somewhere around 2.95GAA

nobody ever thought Scrivens should be playing 57 games in a season.

You can obfuscate all you like. All of Scrivens stats get much worse after March and April.

carry on I guess.

 

[Tw0Shoes]

ALL of the March and APRIL sample has GAA well and above what Scrivens had the rest of the year. ALL of those games were in addition to the expected 40 or so games Scrivens was expected to play last year.

If Fasth holds his own on this team and isn't such a pariah he ends up sharing the load of games and Scrivens likely finishes somewhere around 2.95GAA

nobody ever thought Scrivens should be playing 57 games in a season.

You can obfuscate all you like. All of Scrivens stats get much worse after March and April.

carry on I guess.

Defence also got significantly worse in March/April because they traded away Petry.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

At the end of the day people can post all the stats they want and all the theories and long drawn out arguments and just never let things go until everyone else is just tired of arguing with them and just leaves.

bottom line is it's a two way street the defense can't hang the goalie out to dry like the Oilers defense has been guilty of, but also the team has to have confidence that the goalie is going to be consistent in his play and give them a chance to win on a nightly basis. The fact is Scrivens can't do that, he has issues in his game and issues with consistency and while those issues could be masked by a strong defensive team, that was never going to be the case here.

We know what Scrivens is, and most likely he's not in Chia's long term plan. Nilsson is a wildcard and there is a lot to like about him, plus he's cheaper. It's a no brainer to keep him and give him a shot.

 

[ScrillaVilla]

Save percentage is a team metric with the Oilers being horrible last season.

To an extent yes, but only if you look at it without providing context (e.g., not all shots are created equal in terms of their probability to score). But trying to use that to defend Scrivens is going nowhere as he was ****** no matter where he was seeing shots from on the ice.

I would direct you to the link below for a more in depth analysis.

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/a-look-at-top-ufa-goalies-and-some.html

 

[McDNicks17]

ALL of the March and APRIL sample has GAA well and above what Scrivens had the rest of the year. ALL of those games were in addition to the expected 40 or so games Scrivens was expected to play last year.

If Fasth holds his own on this team and isn't such a pariah he ends up sharing the load of games and Scrivens likely finishes somewhere around 2.95GAA

nobody ever thought Scrivens should be playing 57 games in a season.

You can obfuscate all you like. All of Scrivens stats get much worse after March and April.

carry on I guess.

The difference between Scrivens' SV% in October and March is 0.17 goals per game if use the Oilers average shots against from last season.

As for November, it was 0.34 goals per game higher than March.

The fact of the matter is Scrivens started the season poorly, continued to play poorly and ended the season poorly. He was basically the same terrible goalie the entire season outside of February where he actually put up above average numbers.

 

[Replacement*]

Defence also got significantly worse in March/April because they traded away Petry.

Which also significantly hurt Scrivens GAA final tally.

Which prior to March was sub 3GAA which is not bad on a terrible team with the worst attention to D in the league. This is what I'm trying to say. But I'm being told Scrivens was terrible all year, is terrible period. yada yada.

 

[McDNicks17]

Which also significantly hurt Scrivens GAA final tally.

Which prior to March was sub 3GAA which is not bad on a terrible team with the worst attention to D in the league. This is what I'm trying to say. But I'm being told Scrivens was terrible all year, is terrible period. yada yada.

Let's be generous and say he had a 2.80 GAA.

Take a quick look where that would rank him among goalies last season.

 

[Raoul Duke]

Which also significantly hurt Scrivens GAA final tally.

Which prior to March was sub 3GAA which is not bad on a terrible team with the worst attention to D in the league. This is what I'm trying to say. But I'm being told Scrivens was terrible all year, is terrible period. yada yada.

So you really believe that Scrivens looked bad strictly due to the D and team play?
Otherwise he'd be fine?
Like starter fine?
Or back up?
Our D hurts goalies, no question.
I'm totally with you on your earlier position that there's a huge void in experience in net and therefore a giant question mark hanging over the position.
I'll never understand such a passionate, time consuming defense of Ben Scrivens as the answer to that question.

 

[nexttothemoon]

What's interesting as well about those stats is his numbers vs the East... which mirrored the team as a whole.

Now he was **** the bed bad vs the West (as was the entire team) and he had a .885 sv pct and a 5-21-8 record to show for it.

Verus the east though... he was only marginally better with a .900 sv pct... but he had a very solid 10-5-3 record there.

What that actually shows me is the team had a lot better support in those games in terms of OFFENSE. The free wheeling, more loose playing, less defensively tight East allowed the Oilers offense to exploit some of those Eastern clubs.

That's something that's overlooked by some who only point to the defensive deficiencies as being the main reason the goalies are hung out to dry... but that's only half the story.

The team absolutely needs to be better offensively as well as then the goalie doesn't feel like he's given the game away with a questionable goal let in once in a while (which every goalie gives up).

It's a two-way street when it comes to confidence and I'm sure the goalies were often in the net thinking... "****'s sake... I have to be Hasek/Dryden every night because this ****ing team in front of me can't score AND can't defend for **** either"... which makes any goalie look like crap when basically every goal against is so important because you know the team can't attack and get it back.

 

[Soundwave]

Scrivens will probably be back anyway, I don't think he's played his last game as an Oiler.

If he's not, then that's a good thing for the organization at least, it means that Talbot/Nilsson are playing so well that they can't bring him back.

He's not as bad as he showed last year, but I think at the same time he's not going to be the break-out starter that Oiler fans hoped for when he got here.

If Nilsson is below a .905 save percentage, he'll be sent down IMO and Scrivens will be brought back up.

All I want is a goalie with save percentage above .910 and at least 40-50 games from that goalie. I don't care who does it ... Talbot, Nilsson, Scrivens, the ghost of Grant Fuhr ... just stop the damn puck. I know we're not great defensively but sometimes you just need to make a save.

 

[Throttlehead]

Check any stat you like on this page and Scrivens comes out really bad, never mind the eye test.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015_goalies.html

RBS & GSAA are bad bad

 

[Jumptheshark]

in a goofy mood

there is one down side/goodside to having a farm in Bakersfield-- very nice weather and it is a cool place -- well when I was there 20 years ago-- there are worst places to be in the middle of winter---120 miles from LA and there is a rather nice park near by

 

[harpoon]

What's interesting as well about those stats is his numbers vs the East... which mirrored the team as a whole.

Now he was **** the bed bad vs the West (as was the entire team) and he had a .885 sv pct and a 5-21-8 record to show for it.

Verus the east though... he was only marginally better with a .900 sv pct... but he had a very solid 10-5-3 record there.

What that actually shows me is the team had a lot better support in those games in terms of OFFENSE. The free wheeling, more loose playing, less defensively tight East allowed the Oilers offense to exploit some of those Eastern clubs.

That's something that's overlooked by some who only point to the defensive deficiencies as being the main reason the goalies are hung out to dry... but that's only half the story.

The team absolutely needs to be better offensively as well as then the goalie doesn't feel like he's given the game away with a questionable goal let in once in a while (which every goalie gives up).

It's a two-way street when it comes to confidence and I'm sure the goalies were often in the net thinking... "****'s sake... I have to be Hasek/Dryden every night because this ****ing team in front of me can't score AND can't defend for **** either"... which makes any goalie look like crap when basically every goal against is so important because you know the team can't attack and get it back.

Great post. Especially agree with the bolded. Every single goalie that's come in here (except for Khabibulin, I think he battled pretty hard for most of the time he was here) has just folded up like a cheap tent. Even a head case like Bryzgalov couldn't wait to get out of town. Can you imagine the stress of relying on guys like Ference who are incapable of skating the puck out of trouble, or moving the man out of the sight lines, or doing anything really other than "pass to Petry/bang it up the wall"? It must be crushing.

This team, running around in their own zone as soon as the forecheck is applied, defenders clueless, forwards out of position ... that has to be a goalie's worst nightmare. Guys like Dubnyk were visibly mentally weak out there. You could be watching the game and just see him wilt, and then watch him start to **** up even worse, then wilt some more, more bad goals etc.

Goalie graveyard man. I believe Talbot and Nilsson are going to have their work cut out for them.

 

[Replacement*]

So you really believe that Scrivens looked bad strictly due to the D and team play?
Otherwise he'd be fine?
Like starter fine?
Or back up?
Our D hurts goalies, no question.
I'm totally with you on your earlier position that there's a huge void in experience in net and therefore a giant question mark hanging over the position.
I'll never understand such a passionate, time consuming defense of Ben Scrivens as the answer to that question.

you're mistaking some of my premise. This is not a defense of Scrivens. In effect its a defence of most goalies that play here and end up predictably heaped on the teams goalie graveyard.

people drastically underestimate the impact of blowouts and desertion on goalies. I've mentioned it specifically. When a team is getting blown out 6-0 in a game the forwards have to stomach maybe around 10 mins of TOI where the game is out of control. A goalie is facing another 40mins of play and being shelled when his team is buried and he's abandoned. Which happened to the goalies here not less than around 30times last year. After one such game you see an emotional Fasth screaming at his teammates on the bench for letting him hang out to dry.

Does anybody think backstopping this team is easy. Especially if you're passionate, heated, which Scrivens and Fasth obviously are.

I've stated specifically that Scrivens was never a starter and should never have been put into that position. Scrivens suffered the fate of any decent D here. Made to eat a constant diet of more than he's able to handle and punching above his weight class playing 57 games instead of around 40. Scrivens can't handle that, just like our 5-6 can't handle top 4 assignments or our 4 D can't handle being slotted into shutdown assignments.

This team does this routinely to players. Requires them to punch above their weight and watches them fail. Without getting meaningful support at the 3 most critical positions in hockey. Goaltending, D, Center.

I almost feel sorry for Talbot and Nillson. In Talbots case specifically I wonder if he realizes how much of a short straw this is on his career. Nillson can always go back to the KHL. We wreck goailes here. Its what the Oilers do.

 

[AJGass4]

Man, this argument just goes on and on. Defence or goaltending, which one is at fault.

I'd say it's 50/50 but to be honest, how many times did anyone watch Calgary win a game last year that they had absolutely no business winning but their goalies stood on their head and made great saves? First game last year…………….., we should have won that game 5-1. Once again, we lost because of some subpar goaltending.

Goalies have to bail their teams out at times in order to get the W. We were probably the best team at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory on a nightly basis last season.

 

[Replacement*]

What's interesting as well about those stats is his numbers vs the East... which mirrored the team as a whole.

Now he was **** the bed bad vs the West (as was the entire team) and he had a .885 sv pct and a 5-21-8 record to show for it.

Verus the east though... he was only marginally better with a .900 sv pct... but he had a very solid 10-5-3 record there.

What that actually shows me is the team had a lot better support in those games in terms of OFFENSE. The free wheeling, more loose playing, less defensively tight East allowed the Oilers offense to exploit some of those Eastern clubs.

That's something that's overlooked by some who only point to the defensive deficiencies as being the main reason the goalies are hung out to dry... but that's only half the story.

The team absolutely needs to be better offensively as well as then the goalie doesn't feel like he's given the game away with a questionable goal let in once in a while (which every goalie gives up).

It's a two-way street when it comes to confidence and I'm sure the goalies were often in the net thinking... "****'s sake... I have to be Hasek/Dryden every night because this ****ing team in front of me can't score AND can't defend for **** either"... which makes any goalie look like crap when basically every goal against is so important because you know the team can't attack and get it back.

That's a good take man. Its very hard to be a goalie in a WC game for the Oilers knowing that either 1-2 goals is probably going to be a loss. That you have to be perfect. You also know that the team in front of you will absolutely cave as soon as they get down 1-2 goals in a WC game. you know in the pregame skate you'll be embarrassed by your squad no matter what you do.

This is what this team does to goalies. Its December 12 th of last seen and Victor Fasth is basically already done here ranting and screaming at his teammates on the bench. The team bailed on him, Ducks getting multiple breakaways with nobody touching them and embarrassing their old team mate. Fasth must think he's already in Siberia.



This is Fasths lucky 13th game with the Oilers. He's already completed fed up with team, his position he's been put in here and doesn't give a ****. He's going to passionately loose it on his bench in front of TV cameras. He looks up knows he's being filmed and even flies off into round 2.

Fasth ends up playing only 3 more games for the Oil in the next 5 weeks. Scrivens is left holding the load. Curiously the team starts playing Fasth again in February giving him 7 starts that month. So Scrivens gets a manageable 8 starts that month and its his best month. Go figure, because the work load is being shared. Which was good for once as the work load here is severe.