Prospect Info: Scott Perunovich (2018 Draft - 45th overall)

[Brian39]

Well Krug has been in the lineup every game Perunovich has played and it hasn't been an issue. I searched "Perunovich scratch" on twitter and only found one healthy scratch which was December 17th.

We have gone 9-7-3 with Perunovich in the lineup and 17-6-2 without him. That is a pretty stark contrast that suggests that there may have been an issue. A 90 point pace vs a 118 point pace is massive. I don't think Perunovich is solely responsible for all that, but the team had issues when we were dressing him and Krug. Additionally, we dressed 7 D men in 4 of those 5 wins, so the sample size of games where we successfully ran a 6 man D group with Krug and Perunovich is just 5 games. I disagree that we didn't have issues when we were dressing Perunovich and Krug at the same time. Our record is noticeably worse with Perunovich in the lineup and we were frequently running 7 D (which allowed us to better shelter both from the PK and defensive minutes.

 

[LGB]

We have gone 9-7-3 with Perunovich in the lineup and 17-6-2 without him. That is a pretty stark contrast that suggests that there may have been an issue. A 90 point pace vs a 118 point pace is massive. I don't think Perunovich is solely responsible for all that, but the team had issues when we were dressing him and Krug. Additionally, we dressed 7 D men in 4 of those 5 wins, so the sample size of games where we successfully ran a 6 man D group with Krug and Perunovich is just 5 games. I disagree that we didn't have issues when we were dressing Perunovich and Krug at the same time. Our record is noticeably worse with Perunovich in the lineup and we were frequently running 7 D (which allowed us to better shelter both from the PK and defensive minutes.

Weren't we dealing with a lot of injuries? Which adds more context to both the record and dressing 7 D. I find it pretty unlikely that a defenseman averaging 15:27 a game had a major impact on our record. Especially considering I thought he played pretty well. Isn't it more likely it's just normal variance? I'll defer to others on the PK thing if it really is a big deal.

 

[joe galiba]

Do you have a reason to think those are the same fans saying both of those things?

no, just the heads and tails of the same coin

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Weren't we dealing with a lot of injuries? Which adds more context to both the record and dressing 7 D. I find it pretty unlikely that a defenseman averaging 15:27 a game had a major impact on our record. Especially considering I thought he played pretty well. Isn't it more likely it's just normal variance? I'll defer to others on the PK thing if it really is a big deal.

not to mention husso wasnt starting yet when peronovich was in the lineup more

 

[DatDude44]

We have gone 9-7-3 with Perunovich in the lineup and 17-6-2 without him. That is a pretty stark contrast that suggests that there may have been an issue. A 90 point pace vs a 118 point pace is massive. I don't think Perunovich is solely responsible for all that, but the team had issues when we were dressing him and Krug. Additionally, we dressed 7 D men in 4 of those 5 wins, so the sample size of games where we successfully ran a 6 man D group with Krug and Perunovich is just 5 games. I disagree that we didn't have issues when we were dressing Perunovich and Krug at the same time. Our record is noticeably worse with Perunovich in the lineup and we were frequently running 7 D (which allowed us to better shelter both from the PK and defensive minutes.

What was our record when Scandella was playing 18+ a night at 5v5 with Parayko against top competition and what is it now since he’s been moved down for Mikkola is imo the far more important question in regards to our record over that time span, not Perunovich.

 

[PocketNines]

The Blues defense is atrocious in its own zone and Perunovich is built (vis-a-vis professional-sized NHL players) to be a tiny, atrocious own zone defender. You can't just pronounce this player "good at transition" while ignoring that if that transition doesn't work you are looking at 30-60 seconds of terror and scoring chances given up.

 

[LGB]

 

[execwrite1]

Fragile.

The most important ability is availability.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Fragile.

The most important ability is availability.

So I guess Tarasenko is Fragile too? Injuries happen, calling someone Fragile because that got Injured is BS

 

[LGB]

Definitely not good for his development or his trade value he's missed so much time already in his young career.

 

[Brian39]

What was our record when Scandella was playing 18+ a night at 5v5 with Parayko against top competition and what is it now since he’s been moved down for Mikkola is imo the far more important question in regards to our record over that time span, not Perunovich.

Games 1-12: The team went 8-2-2 in the first 12 games of the year where Scandella averaged 21:35 a night. He was above 20 minutes in 11 of those 12 games and played 18:58 in the other. Perunovich wasn't with the NHL team yet and Mikkola played 2 games in this stretch (less than 12 minutes each).

Games 13-24: In game 13, Scandella plummeted to 15:33 of ice time and never hit the 20 minute mark over the next 12 games. He averaged 15:12 a night in this dozen game stretch and the team went 5-6-2. Mikkola had not yet taken over his vacated minutes and they were getting filled by committee (with Perunovich being the biggest benefactor at 17 minutes a night from game 15-24).

Games 25-28: Scandella got 20+ in each game and the team went 3-0-1. This was the stretch where Faulk was out. Mikkola also averaged 20 minutes a night in this stretch. Parayko and Krug round out the top 4 and then there is a big drop off in ice time to the 3rd pair. Faulk returned in game 29, Scandella is kicked out of the top 4 and Mikkola stays with Parayko.

Games 29-44: This is the sample where Mikkola has taken the top 4 role while Scandella is playing a bottom pair role. The team goes 11-5. Perunovich plays just 5 games in this window and the team goes 2-3. Perunovich is on the ice for 5 goals against and 2 goals for despite carrying a 90% zone start rate. The underlying numbers are much better than that (all in the 50s) but still not what you want when a guy is basically completely and totally sheltered. The team is 9-2 in this stretch in games where Perunovich isn't on the ice.

The majority of Perunovich's quality play came before Mikkola got his opportunity at the 2nd pair. Since Mikkola took that job, the team has gotten much better results running a Scandella-Bortz, defensive oriented pairing than they did trying to shelter Perunovich on the 3rd pair.

Again, I'm not saying that the team record is 100% on Perunovich, but he absolutely hasn't shown proof of concept that our best 6 man blue line includes him.

 

[ort]

Skated in practice today with a no-contact jersey... so he still exists!

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Skated in practice today with a no-contact jersey... so he still exists!

Im just hoping it isn't his shoulder.

 

[Reality Czech]

Games 1-12: The team went 8-2-2 in the first 12 games of the year where Scandella averaged 21:35 a night. He was above 20 minutes in 11 of those 12 games and played 18:58 in the other. Perunovich wasn't with the NHL team yet and Mikkola played 2 games in this stretch (less than 12 minutes each).

Games 13-24: In game 13, Scandella plummeted to 15:33 of ice time and never hit the 20 minute mark over the next 12 games. He averaged 15:12 a night in this dozen game stretch and the team went 5-6-2. Mikkola had not yet taken over his vacated minutes and they were getting filled by committee (with Perunovich being the biggest benefactor at 17 minutes a night from game 15-24).

Games 25-28: Scandella got 20+ in each game and the team went 3-0-1. This was the stretch where Faulk was out. Mikkola also averaged 20 minutes a night in this stretch. Parayko and Krug round out the top 4 and then there is a big drop off in ice time to the 3rd pair. Faulk returned in game 29, Scandella is kicked out of the top 4 and Mikkola stays with Parayko.

Games 29-44: This is the sample where Mikkola has taken the top 4 role while Scandella is playing a bottom pair role. The team goes 11-5. Perunovich plays just 5 games in this window and the team goes 2-3. Perunovich is on the ice for 5 goals against and 2 goals for despite carrying a 90% zone start rate. The underlying numbers are much better than that (all in the 50s) but still not what you want when a guy is basically completely and totally sheltered. The team is 9-2 in this stretch in games where Perunovich isn't on the ice.

The majority of Perunovich's quality play came before Mikkola got his opportunity at the 2nd pair. Since Mikkola took that job, the team has gotten much better results running a Scandella-Bortz, defensive oriented pairing than they did trying to shelter Perunovich on the 3rd pair.

Again, I'm not saying that the team record is 100% on Perunovich, but he absolutely hasn't shown proof of concept that our best 6 man blue line includes him.

So according to your post, maybe just mayyyyybe Scandella isn't the main problem on defense as some have suggested. I just checked his game log and the Blues record when he plays 20+ minutes is 11-4-2.

Let me repeat, when Scandella plays 20+ minutes the Blues are 11-4-2. Hope the people who act like he's horrible read this post. He ain't the problem, folks. We're 7-2-1 when Mikkola plays 20+ so he's doing well also. Yes, there are other factors in play but I just don't get the constant Scandella bashing while fans make all kinds of excuses for Mikkola/Perunovich. Maybe the team looks better now because we've spread out our two best pure defenders (Parayko/Scandella) over two pairings, not because Mikkola is an upgrade on Scandy.

As I said before, there is no room in a healthy Blues lineup this season for Perunovich unless we dress 7 D and I don't think that's a good strategy. Heal up, build some strength and we'll see you next year kid. The present is cloudy but the future is still bright, though I still think he ultimately ends up as trade bait.

 

[Brian39]

So according to your post, maybe just mayyyyybe Scandella isn't the main problem on defense as some have suggested. I just checked his game log and the Blues record when he plays 20+ minutes is 11-4-2.

Let me repeat, when Scandella plays 20+ minutes the Blues are 11-4-2. Hope the people who act like he's horrible read this post. He ain't the problem, folks. We're 7-2-1 when Mikkola plays 20+ so he's doing well also. Yes, there are other factors in play but I just don't get the constant Scandella bashing while fans make all kinds of excuses for Mikkola/Perunovich. Maybe the team looks better now because we've spread out our two best pure defenders (Parayko/Scandella) over two pairings, not because Mikkola is an upgrade on Scandy.

As I said before, there is no room in a healthy Blues lineup this season for Perunovich unless we dress 7 D and I don't think that's a good strategy. Heal up, build some strength and we'll see you next year kid. The present is cloudy but the future is still bright, though I still think he ultimately ends up as trade bait.

This is why I'm not interested in guys like Chiarot. Scandella isn't a dumpster fire out there, but I don't think he is good enough for us to be contenders with him as the #4 D man. That is mostly because given the construction of the rest of our blue line, that #4 D man has to do a ton of heavy lifting. We don't have a legit #1 "do it all" NHL D man on the right side and the other top 4 guy on the left side (Krug) has to be at least decently sheltered in order to be effective. That means that the other top 4 LHD has to do a ton of heavy lifting.

Scandella is a good #4/5 tweener D man, but we need that other top 4 LHD to be more than that in order to contend when you look at the rest of out blueline. Scandella is the easy pick to remove from the roster due to his salary and he looks very bad when he's off his game. I don't think he deserves the hate he's gotten even though his contract is the one that makes the most sense to move if your bringing in a legit top 4 LHD. We need an upgrade to the left side and it will be very difficult to do that without shedding Scandella's contract (and leaving Scandella on the 3rd pair while bring in another LHD creates a log jam for Mikkola). But that doesn't mean that any half decent LHD replacing Scandella makes the team better.

 

[oldwpgjet]

How do you blame a rookie defenseman for a poor record that has only played 19 games in total and has a positive plus/minus. I think you have a gem of a dman with Perunovich and by the way he shredded the AHL before he was called up, it shouldn't take him very long to adjust to nhl but there will still be a learning curve and a little bit of patience is necessary. If not , I expect there will be many other teams interested in him. I also agree ,hopefully injuries won't define his career as he is off to a bad start in that department. I also think Tarasenko being hurt earlier and Binnington's play this year probably had a bigger impact on your team record.

 

[Reality Czech]

How do you blame a rookie defenseman for a poor record that has only played 19 games in total and has a positive plus/minus. I think you have a gem of a dman with Perunovich and by the way he shredded the AHL before he was called up, it shouldn't take him very long to adjust to nhl but there will still be a learning curve and a little bit of patience is necessary. If not , I expect there will be many other teams interested in him. I also agree ,hopefully injuries won't define his career as he is off to a bad start in that department. I also think Tarasenko being hurt earlier and Binnington's play this year probably had a bigger impact on your team record.

It's not about blaming him, but asking if we are a better team with or without him in the lineup right now. I'm pretty confident saying he would hurt us more than help until he improves his defending. He shredded the ahl offensively but he's got a long way to go to becoming a reliable defensive player in the NHL. We don't need another PP specialist, we need a solid d-zone guy.

 

[PocketNines]

I share Brian's view of Scandella – a bit unfairly scapegoated because he's forced to play out of the right slot which is a 4/5 role. He is solid at this. While the term is long enough I don't think the Blues could get much back besides a mid or late-round pick, Scandella does not have negative value IMO to actual NHL teams. Someone could use him. Anaheim or Arizona could each use him.

In fact, in the ideal scenario we wouldn't trade Scandella at all, we'd acquire Chychrun and have the top three be Chychrun-Parayko-Faulk which is strong, and then have Krug/Scandella as the 4/5 minutes guys with flexible deployment as fits the game situation. This setup also means that if you have to bridge over some injury time you have two veterans who can at least step into minutes in an emergency. When the Blues acquired Scandella the top three were Petro-Parayko-Faulk, so yeah he looked good those first 11 games. A player like this can step up and handle short stints.

The problem is of course the cap. People put Scandella into all the trades simply because looking around at all the other salaries his is really the only one that can be moved to accommodate this new player in his position.

There is a very plausible scenario where the Blues do not acquire the LHD they need by Monday, March 21, Scandella remains on the roster, and they acquire that left defenseman in the offseason and Krug/Scandella/Mikkola are the bottom 3 defenders next season with Bortuzzo subbing in. This is the stand-pat scenario. It means they don't go anywhere in the playoffs this season and squander a solid opportunity but next year they add Neighbors at LW, move Kyrou back to RW and Tarasenko's money is freed up to pay for raises to Husso, Mikkola and toward the LD who's needed.

 

[BlueMed]

I share Brian's view of Scandella – a bit unfairly scapegoated because he's forced to play out of the right slot which is a 4/5 role. He is solid at this. While the term is long enough I don't think the Blues could get much back besides a mid or late-round pick, Scandella does not have negative value IMO to actual NHL teams. Someone could use him. Anaheim or Arizona could each use him.

In fact, in the ideal scenario we wouldn't trade Scandella at all, we'd acquire Chychrun and have the top three be Chychrun-Parayko-Faulk which is strong, and then have Krug/Scandella as the 4/5 minutes guys with flexible deployment as fits the game situation. This setup also means that if you have to bridge over some injury time you have two veterans who can at least step into minutes in an emergency. When the Blues acquired Scandella the top three were Petro-Parayko-Faulk, so yeah he looked good those first 11 games. A player like this can step up and handle short stints.

The problem is of course the cap. People put Scandella into all the trades simply because looking around at all the other salaries his is really the only one that can be moved to accommodate this new player in his position.

There is a very plausible scenario where the Blues do not acquire the LHD they need by Monday, March 21, Scandella remains on the roster, and they acquire that left defenseman in the offseason and Krug/Scandella/Mikkola are the bottom 3 defenders next season with Bortuzzo subbing in. This is the stand-pat scenario. It means they don't go anywhere in the playoffs this season and squander a solid opportunity but next year they add Neighbors at LW, move Kyrou back to RW and Tarasenko's money is freed up to pay for raises to Husso, Mikkola and toward the LD who's needed.

Let's hope this does not happen. Our window is likely open only this season and the next while we have Thomas and Kyrou both signed cheap for 2.8 M AAV. After that, both will be due for huge raises and will likely replace Tarasenko's and ROR's contracts instead of adding to them. If our defense is set up to work correctly, we need our players to be put in positions of proven success. Looking back at the STL-BOS series, we have the following D cores..

Gunnarsson-Petro
JBo-Parayko
Dunn-Bortuzzo

Chara-McAvoy
Krug-Carlo
Moore-Clifton

As everyone can see, both Parayko and Krug flourished on their respective second pairings. Also looking at Boston's D, it wasn't all that impressive. Their bottom pairing wasn't great, and despite what the Boston media seems to think, Charlie McAvoy isn't as good as advertised. Even in the cup finals, he was half-impressive in game 1 and other times looked solid at best with lost coverage that lead to key goals scored against. Anyways, I think it's time to acknowledge Justin Faulk's emergence and give him a shot at a bigger role. He is easily our most balanced top 4 defenseman and at times has the poise and instincts that make him resemble Doughty. Maybe getting a top 4 LHD can make our D look like...

LHD-Faulk
Krug-Parayko

 

[PocketNines]

Let's hope this does not happen. Our window is likely open only this season and the next while we have Thomas and Kyrou both signed cheap for 2.8 M AAV. After that, both will be due for huge raises and will likely replace Tarasenko's and ROR's contracts instead of adding to them. If our defense is set up to work correctly, we need our players to be put in positions of proven success. Looking back at the STL-BOS series, we have the following D cores..

Gunnarsson-Petro
JBo-Parayko
Dunn-Bortuzzo

Chara-McAvoy
Krug-Carlo
Moore-Clifton

As everyone can see, both Parayko and Krug flourished on their respective second pairings. Also looking at Boston's D, it wasn't all that impressive. Their bottom pairing wasn't great, and despite what the Boston media seems to think, Charlie McAvoy isn't as good as advertised. Even in the cup finals, he was half-impressive in game 1 and other times lost coverage and lead to key goals scored against. Anyways, I think it's time to acknowledge Justin Faulk's emergence and give him a shot at a bigger role. Maybe getting a top 4 LHD can make our D look like...

LHD-Faulk
Krug-Parayko

I agree that the plausible scenario is a poor decision if it happens. I think it would be throwing away any real chance this year, which I mentioned yesterday is on pace to tie 1998 as the 4th best regular season in franchise history behind only 81, 00 and 91 in terms of regulation wins.

I also fully agree that the Blues beat Boston because their D was far better than Boston's. Theirs wasn't a Cup-deserving defense, period. A few months ago I was being told left and right that I was absurd to suggest that the even slower 2022 Torey Krug should not be slotted as a top 3 defender on a seriously contending Cup team, that at best he should be the 4/5.

 

[oldwpgjet]

Hey , I see this might be off topic here but what's up with Perunovich. Still hurt, or now a healthy scratch or sent down and I haven't heard yet??

 

[Blueston]

Hey , I see this might be off topic here but what's up with Perunovich. Still hurt, or now a healthy scratch or sent down and I haven't heard yet??

He was sent to Springfield to get a couple games in after he recovere from injury. He played both games this weekend. Curious whether they leave him there for a while or bring him back.

 

[Stealth JD]

Let's hope this does not happen. Our window is likely open only this season and the next while we have Thomas and Kyrou both signed cheap for 2.8 M AAV. After that, both will be due for huge raises and will likely replace Tarasenko's and ROR's contracts instead of adding to them. If our defense is set up to work correctly, we need our players to be put in positions of proven success. Looking back at the STL-BOS series, we have the following D cores..

Gunnarsson-Petro
JBo-Parayko
Dunn-Bortuzzo

Chara-McAvoy
Krug-Carlo
Moore-Clifton

As everyone can see, both Parayko and Krug flourished on their respective second pairings. Also looking at Boston's D, it wasn't all that impressive. Their bottom pairing wasn't great, and despite what the Boston media seems to think, Charlie McAvoy isn't as good as advertised. Even in the cup finals, he was half-impressive in game 1 and other times looked solid at best with lost coverage that lead to key goals scored against. Anyways, I think it's time to acknowledge Justin Faulk's emergence and give him a shot at a bigger role. He is easily our most balanced top 4 defenseman and at times has the poise and instincts that make him resemble Doughty. Maybe getting a top 4 LHD can make our D look like...

LHD-Faulk
Krug-Parayko

Charlie McAvoy is a stud; and you're nitpicking a kid who literally came right out of college to make his NHL debut in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and was one of their best defensemen from day 1. He's currently better than anything the Blues have and you're selling him short by saying he's anything but a solid overall #1D.

 

[Tonysil]

He looked disinterested last night. At one point he took a cheap hooking penalty instead of chasing down a player on a break. The first goal given up was also 100% on him. He did score on the power play a few minutes later though so there's that.

 

[Remparts666]

Wow kind of weird he was named 1st star then