Rumor: Sam Gagner returning?

[bone]

As a person, Gagner seems like a great person. I wish him nothing but the best. As a player, I think he is a waste of a spot on the 50-man contract list, a waste of cap space, and he would take time away from someone who could maybe develop into an asset. Honestly I don’t think he belongs on an NHL team in contention for anything without being a detriment. His skill set is already duplicated on the club by Derek Ryan, who also happens to have many of the same weakness as Sam and we simply don’t need two of them. I love Sam, but he can carry on his career elsewhere.

Except that Ryan is pretty good on faceoffs and doesn't just PK, but has done well at it all of his career, whereas Gagner has contributed effectively to a PK about 3 of his 16 years. Granted 2 of those years are the last two years, but still.

I love the idea of Sam Gagner, but don't think he adds anything to the team whatsoever. If Ryan was shipped out then maybe, but then we'd be concerned about who can take faceoffs from the right side.

Amazingly though, Gagner's still almost 3 years younger than Ryan despite playing 9 more seasons.

 

[tiger_80]

Except that Ryan is pretty good on faceoffs and doesn't just PK, but has done well at it all of his career, whereas Gagner has contributed effectively to a PK about 3 of his 16 years. Granted 2 of those years are the last two years, but still.

I love the idea of Sam Gagner, but don't think he adds anything to the team whatsoever. If Ryan was shipped out then maybe, but then we'd be concerned about who can take faceoffs from the right side.

Amazingly though, Gagner's still almost 3 years younger than Ryan despite playing 9 more seasons.

Ryan is a better player at this point. Gagner has more than 900 games in the NHL and only a dozen or so games in the playoffs. Think about it. he played all of his career on shitty teams, which probably means he should not have played 900 games in the NHL.

 

[bone]

Ryan is a better player at this point. Gagner has more than 900 games in the NHL and only a dozen or so games in the playoffs. Think about it. he played all of his career on shitty teams, which probably means he should not have played 900 games in the NHL.

Overall, I'd agree particularly if being placed in a bottom 6 role as Ryan is a bit more physical, better on faceoffs, has a longer track record at killing penalties and generally has put up better advanced stats most years.

The only concern at this point would be that Ryan will turn 36 this season and could hit the wall pretty quickly, and looking at his offense the last two years, it may have already started, whereas Gagner is still at least somewhat close to his average and is a few years younger. Good on Sam that he's added some PK to his resume as he needs that to have any chance at getting to 1000 games and beyond, but it may be too little too late particularly when he never did figure out how to win a critical faceoff. It's surprising to me that a 15 year vet has still not figured out how to get his faceoffs above 47% on a regular basis.

---edit
nevermind on the offense, looking closer the rate each's offense has diminished is actually pretty close when compared to their averages and a large chunk of Ryan's drop is from a major shooting percentage drop in his last season in Calgary which rebounded back to normal last year.

 

[Fourier]

The guy was 14th out of the 16 forwards on the Detroit Red Wings in on-ice expected goals (38.8%). The Wings were 47.3% with him off the ice.

16th out of the 16 forwards in one-ice expected goal differential (-27.3). The next highest was -20.

Again, this is the Detroit Red Wings. Not the Avalanche, the Panthers or the Lightning. He's not playing with elite players.

The numbers suggest the exact opposite of what you're saying.

The first thing to note is that your numbers are "all strength numbers", so they include pk time. Since Sammy played by far the most time on the pk of any forward that tends to skew things. His 5 vs 5 GF% was 45.21% which was 7th on the team out of regular forwards (see below for more on this).

Well if you want to go by numbers lets look a little deeper into this then and see if the stats you reference actually tell you something specific about Gagner or more so about the guys he played with.

5 vs 5 his most common line mates last year were Joe Veleno and Givani Smith. Going into last season those two had played a combined 42 NHL games.

Gagner played 404 minutes of his 829 total 5 vs 5 minutes away from those two. During that time his xGF differential was -1.45 while his actual goal differential was +5 with an xGF% of 47.85. His GA/60 away from these two was 2.08. His HDCF% during that time was 47.06%. And all of this with twice as many defensive zone starts as offensive zone starts on a team that had a 5vs 5 goal differential of -46.

Gagner spent 88 minutes with Smith but away from Veleno. Small sample size but in this situation they had a CF% of 53.85, a SF% of 60.00% and an xGF% of 57.26%. In this case the actual goal differential was -4 due in good part to an 80% ONSV%.

With Veleno Ganger's stats plummeted. In 246 minutes with Veleno away from Smith teh GF% and xGF% were 33% and 40% respectively.

Veleno away from the other two in 431 minutes had a GF% of 37% and a xGF% of 39%.

Is there a moral to the story...I'd say there are two. One the stats you posted don't tell the story you claim they do. Two these sorts of stats in the raw do a poor job of isolating the actual contribution of an individual.

 

[joestevens29]

Inflated Gagner’s stock in the draft for sure. 3 players in London top 3

London Knights 2006-07 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2006-07 London Knights playing in the OHL.

www.hockeydb.com

What’s his wife look like?

She's a looker

 

[Oilers in NS]

She's a looker

Awesome
Those hockey players usually get nice kitty

 

[Drivesaitl]

Ryan is a better player at this point. Gagner has more than 900 games in the NHL and only a dozen or so games in the playoffs. Think about it. he played all of his career on shitty teams, which probably means he should not have played 900 games in the NHL.

Gagner has had a long career because he's a consummate pro with a tireless work ethic that has had a lifelong obsession with training to keep him in peak condition. Gagner is faster stronger now than in his prime. Whereas guys like Turris sink into obscurity Gagner has played his way back into the league each time he was sent down.

Gagner also has over 500pts which is far better than the long list of scrubs that teams somehow thought had supplanted him.

But people are missing the forest for the trees. As fans we don't know much about which types of players are the feel good glue of teams. Sam Gagner is Mr positivity and team mates love him, always have, and he's the guy, the story, that everybody feels good about.

Its not just about the player on the ice. Its what they bring to a bench, and to a room. Adam Oates was one of those guys. Duncan Keith another. If the key players on this team want Gagner around, and it appears they do, then it could happen.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just a footnote to Gagners famous 8pt game. hardly anybody remembers that it was bookended by another 4 pt game so that Gagner had an amazing 12pts in two games played. The only player that wasn't surprised was maybe Patrick Kane.

Always liked Gagner, all the try in him, and from the start with the Oilers he was the feel good story in bleak times. The guy that was easy to love when there was little else going on. But Gagner also reminds us that people are capable of great things. That great things can occur with the passion and effort.

 

[tiger_80]

Gagner has had a long career because he's a consummate pro with a tireless work ethic that has had a lifelong obsession with training to keep him in peak condition. Gagner is faster stronger now than in his prime. Whereas guys like Turris sink into obscurity Gagner has played his way back into the league each time he was sent down.

Gagner also has over 500pts which is far better than the long list of scrubs that teams somehow thought had supplanted him.

But people are missing the forest for the trees. As fans we don't know much about which types of players are the feel good glue of teams. Sam Gagner is Mr positivity and team mates love him, always have, and he's the guy, the story, that everybody feels good about.

Its not just about the player on the ice. Its what they bring to a bench, and to a room. Adam Oates was one of those guys. Duncan Keith another. If the key players on this team want Gagner around, and it appears they do, then it could happen.

If he's so good as you claim, why does he seem to bounce around the league so much? He's been on 6 teams, since getting moved by the Oilers. Definition of a tweener who got drafted high and received a lot of opportunities on shitty teams like the prongered Oilers))

 

[Drivesaitl]

If he's so good as you claim, why does he seem to bounce around the league so much? He's been on 6 teams, since getting moved by the Oilers. Definition of a tweener who got drafted high and received a lot of opportunities on shitty teams like the prongered Oilers))

Sorry but this is the definition of a poor take.

+500pts and counting NHL "tweeners".

Thanks for playing.

 

[tiger_80]

Sorry but this is the definition of a poor take.

+500pts and counting NHL "tweeners".

Thanks for playing.

Yes, all those fat PP minutes would help. He's been a massive - player his entire career. People have short memory. Sam Gagner was not a good NHL player as an Oiler. One of the reasons those teams finished dead last for several years in a row.

 

[LMFAO]

I would sign Brett Ritchie for league minimum instead.

What’s the current plan when we get pushed around/intimidated once again this season ? Pray that Nurse and Kane don’t break a hand on some meathead visor ?

Foegele - Mcleod on the fourth line and have the last spot for Ryan, Shore or Ritchie, play Ritchie against Vegas, Calgary, etc.

 

[joestevens29]

Yes, all those fat PP minutes would help. He's been a massive - player his entire career. People have short memory. Sam Gagner was not a good NHL player as an Oiler. One of the reasons those teams finished dead last for several years in a row.

The guy is closing in on 1000 games. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

Also McDavid has a higher percentage of his points on the PP than Gagner, so does that mean McDavid is no good either and is being propped up by PP numbers?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yes, all those fat PP minutes would help. He's been a massive - player his entire career. People have short memory. Sam Gagner was not a good NHL player as an Oiler. One of the reasons those teams finished dead last for several years in a row.

Not much point in continuing as you've already moved goal posts. But I'll say this much. That so many teams have had him around, and continue to have him around is testament to what he brings to a room and he's one of the best liked Red Wings players among players and fans, they like him. Only some vets are healthy to have around rebuilding teams. Guys like Gagner are, guys like Turris or Ryan Whitney sure aren't.

As for the minus thats kind of what happens when you've mostly been on rebuilding clubs. Even at that he had two plus seasons here and had them in Columbus and Philly as well. When he's been on even competent clubs he's been among the better players.

Finally a small part of Gagners overall pts are on the PP. He's had almost 3X as many EV pts. Your every thought on this player seems wrong.

The guy is closing in on 1000 games. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

Also McDavid has a higher percentage of his points on the PP than Gagner, so does that mean McDavid is no good either and is being propped up by PP numbers?

The guy didn't even look at the stats. Only 137 out of 505 pts have been on the PP. Its like watching somebody throw spaghetti on a wall seeing if anything sticks.

 

[bone]

Yes, all those fat PP minutes would help. He's been a massive - player his entire career. People have short memory. Sam Gagner was not a good NHL player as an Oiler. One of the reasons those teams finished dead last for several years in a row.

In the last four seasons he's had 228 PP minutes (about 1 minute per game on average mostly on a 2nd unit or in scrap minutes when someone is injured). I wouldn't call that fat minutes and it only resulted in 6 of his 72 points in 197 games. Sure that's not a 500 points in 1000 games pace, but it's still not that bad for a guy in seasons 11-15 in bottom 6 roles who only once hit 50 points in his career even when in a top 6.

I'm not sure Gagner helps us this year as his strengths are repeated in the lineup, and his weaknesses are areas we're deficient in, but I also don't think it's fair to discredit him for somehow staying relevent to the point a team is considering signing him to play in his 16th NHL season because he got some powerplay time in his early years with the Oilers.

Those teams didn't suck because Gagner was on the team. They sucked as he was the primary option offensively for many of those years. It's well known by now that he was never cut out to be a full time first liner but rather middle six forward (in his prime) and a bottom six forward in his later years. Not his fault Edmonton didn't have the right players to complement him.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Correct me if I’m wrong
The year that Chicago drafted Kane, didn’t they win the draft lotto around 9th? Booted Philly outta 1st pick

The year they won Kane they had the 5th pick which would have been th oilers spot had they not won the last game of the season against the flames

 

[Spawn]

The year they won Kane they had the 5th pick which would have been th oilers spot had they not won the last game of the season against the flames

An Oilers loss in the last game of the season would have had Chicago 6th Washington 5th and Edmonton 4th. So even if the 5th spot won the lottery again it would have been Washington not Edmonton.

Could you imagine Kane with Ovechkin and Backstrom :0

 

[bone]

An Oilers loss in the last game of the season would have had Chicago 6th Washington 5th and Edmonton 4th. So even if the 5th spot won the lottery again it would have been Washington not Edmonton.

Could you imagine Kane with Ovechkin and Backstrom :0

Unless Edmonton would have lost in OT.

How it ended
25th place-Edm 71 Points-32wins
26th place-Chicago 71 Points-31 Wins
27th place-Washington 70 Point-28 Wins

If Edmonton lost outright
25th place-Chicago 71 Points-31 Wins
26th place-Washington 70 Point-28 Wins
27th place-Edm 69 Points-31wins

If Edmonton lost in OT
25th place-Chicago 71 Points-31 Wins
26th place-Edm 70 Points-31wins
27th place-Washington 70 Point-28 Wins

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

You mean like having a guy who was top 5 in SH TOI last year?

On the 32nd ranked PK in the NHL?

 

[AM]

I trust the guys making decisions to make the right call. Lots of different types of minutes are required during a season, hopefully they are matching strengths with the minutes required.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Unless Edmonton would have lost in OT.

How it ended
25th place-Edm 71 Points-32wins
26th place-Chicago 71 Points-31 Wins
27th place-Washington 70 Point-28 Wins

If Edmonton lost outright
25th place-Chicago 71 Points-31 Wins
26th place-Washington 70 Point-28 Wins
27th place-Edm 69 Points-31wins

If Edmonton lost in OT
25th place-Chicago 71 Points-31 Wins
26th place-Edm 70 Points-31wins
27th place-Washington 70 Point-28 Wins

And didn’t we lose in OT it’s been so long I can’t remember clearly?

Nope looked it up won in regulation carry on

 

[AM]

Just a footnote to Gagners famous 8pt game. hardly anybody remembers that it was bookended by another 4 pt game so that Gagner had an amazing 12pts in two games played. The only player that wasn't surprised was maybe Patrick Kane.

Always liked Gagner, all the try in him, and from the start with the Oilers he was the feel good story in bleak times. The guy that was easy to love when there was little else going on. But Gagner also reminds us that people are capable of great things. That great things can occur with the passion and effort.

Gagner doesnt look anything like Drai. Smoking or drinking?

Just kidding. I like Gagner, and now you mention it, I do remember something about a 4 pt night also.

 

[BudBundy]

Don’t see a lot of guys on your list with 1000 NHL games and 500 points. Kind of a weak point you are failing to make here.

This post is a lot more reasonable. However, 1) not a waste of cap space since he would be on a deal that could be completely buried in the AHL. 2) Take time away from someone else? Maybe. But it’s yet to be seen for sure if any of the prospect wingers are definitely NHL ready. 3) Skill set duplicated by Ryan? Probably, it’s a reasonable point.

Imo the team could do a lot worse than having Gagner on the roster for 800K if there’s a spot open. I watched the Wings a fair bit last season. Gagner had barely any PP time and a boatload of PK time. He was surprisingly pretty good on the PK imo. Skated his bag off. 13 goals with none on the PP would have been good enough for seventh on the Oilers. Ahead of Foegele, Ryan etc. He was also only -4 on a team that gave up 83 more goals than they scored. He’s not going to be an every day player, but if there’s a spot open, he’s definitely better than Shore (49 games last season), Sceviour (35 games), Benson (29 games), Perlini (23 games) and Turris (23 games). That’s a lot of junk that dressed for a combined for over 150 man games last season.

I’ll take Gags back at 750-800K all day long. Haters can pound sand.

I don’t hate the guy. Quite the opposite. I really like the guy. I just don’t see what he adds other than being a nice guy. If we are putting out a contract, let’s find a good guy that adds a dimension we don’t have. What can Gagner do that multiple players on the Oilers don’t already do better? Is he better than anyone in our top 6? Clearly no. If we have injuries in our top 6 do we not have players who can step up or youngsters who could use a cup of coffee? Yes. Is he better in the bottom 6 than who we’ve got now? I don’t think so. He is overall still a smallish, slow, complimentary player at his very best. He’s got some skill obviously but should he be on a skill line? Clearly not. Are there not better typical bottom 6 types out there? Probably.

He put up some decent numbers in Detroit. Will he get anything close to that in Edmonton? Almost assuredly not as he won’t get near the same ice time and opportunity here.

He’s a nice guy. Wonderful. Hire him as a consultant when he retires. Does he ultimately move us closer to a Stanley Cup as a player? I simply cannot see it.

 

[gordonhught]

Gagner doesnt look anything like Drai. Smoking or drinking?

Just kidding. I like Gagner, and now you mention it, I do remember something about a 4 pt night also.

He had 8 points against Chicago once. Maybe he can get nine next year in a gamd.

 

[KMart27]

I don’t hate the guy. Quite the opposite. I really like the guy. I just don’t see what he adds other than being a nice guy. If we are putting out a contract, let’s find a good guy that adds a dimension we don’t have. What can Gagner do that multiple players on the Oilers don’t already do better? Is he better than anyone in our top 6? Clearly no. If we have injuries in our top 6 do we not have players who can step up or youngsters who could use a cup of coffee? Yes. Is he better in the bottom 6 than who we’ve got now? I don’t think so. He is overall still a smallish, slow, complimentary player at his very best. He’s got some skill obviously but should he be on a skill line? Clearly not. Are there not better typical bottom 6 types out there? Probably.

He put up some decent numbers in Detroit. Will he get anything close to that in Edmonton? Almost assuredly not as he won’t get near the same ice time and opportunity here.

He’s a nice guy. Wonderful. Hire him as a consultant when he retires. Does he ultimately move us closer to a Stanley Cup as a player? I simply cannot see it.

He only played 10:36 even strength, that's less than Foegele, Kassian, and McLeod, and a minute more than Ryan. He outproduced each of them and wasn't getting opportunities with McDavid/Draisaitl/Nugent-Hopkins like they were. Detroit put him in a defensive role, he played well in it, and still provided offense from the bottom 6. That's pretty much what this team has been lacking for a while.