Salary Cap: Salary Cap/Roster Thread - As we look forward

[Empoleon8771]

He had 8 points on the powerplay. He’s a terrible player. Sharks fans are likely rejoicing.

Okay? He still had 29 ES points while playing low end 3rd line minutes. He had a better season last year than Sheary did, and people are seriously expecting Sheary to be able to bring back a 2nd round pick.

A guy who was on pace for 41 points last year, with a pace of 32 ES points, is flat out not terrible. He also had a decent playoff run with 6 points in 10 games. He's a whipping boy for Sharks fans, he's a fine middle-6 player.

 

[Peat]

Who do you think the best winger is you could get for Rust and Sheary combined (or Rust and Sheary's worth in picks/prospects/dmen garnered from elsewhere?). Just thinking that if Rutherford's willing to move both, why not see if you can use the two of them to trade up in quality.

 

[Peat]

I've been out of the loop here for a couple weeks. I expect this thread to keep me posted!

Well there's optimism for you.

(We may or may not trade Kessel/Rust/Sheary/Brassard/Hagelin/Jarry; we may have offered Rust OR Sheary + Simon for Domi; Rutherford wants a 4/5 dman and 4th line scoring; not looking at free agency so much; Rutherford is content to sit tight; Rutherford is itching to do something big)

 

[Extra Texture]

My reaction to this entire Hoffman situation

The situation with Hoffman is shameful and sick, and its terrible that EK and his wife were victimized like that. I feel for Sens fans (somewhat) but this couldnt happen to a more deserving owner.

If he wants to save a few dollars and kill the value of his franchise in the process, I'm all for it. Having his GM get embarrassed like this by Doug Wilson is just rubbing it in.

Watching Karlsson walk/get traded, while they forfeit a lottery pick next year and are left with crumbs is going to be amazing. Surely, unless they overpay like hell for him (not likely with Melnyk) Duchene will go too. This has got to be a living nightmare for their fans, they know its going to get worse before it can start getting better. And its gonna cost them their franchise player at the end of the day.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Im looking at his overall stats because the Sharks are too. They're not dealing him based on a good half season. They are dealing the player that has had mediocre production and outright bad possession numbers for 2 years there.

AS far as comparing to Sheary, thats not even close. Not only is Sheary younger, and 25% cheaper but Shearys numbers are better all around and it not that close.

Overall Boedker is a 38.5 pace with horrid possession numbers both total (45.8) and relative (-2.1)
Overall Sheary is a 41.8 pace with good possession numbers both total (53.4) and relative (0.8)

The last two seasons (Sharks tenure) Boedker has been worse 33.5 pace and 49.6/-3.2
The last 2 season for comparison Sheary has 48.4 pace 52.8/relative probably compariable (2.8 and -.3 in the two seasons)

And last i heard Shearys p/60 were better AWAY from Crosby than with (At least 16/17 Im not sure how last years numbers ended)

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Okay? He still had 29 ES points while playing low end 3rd line minutes. He had a better season last year than Sheary did, and people are seriously expecting Sheary to be able to bring back a 2nd round pick.

A guy who was on pace for 41 points last year, with a pace of 32 ES points, is flat out not terrible. He also had a decent playoff run with 6 points in 10 games. He's a whipping boy for Sharks fans, he's a fine middle-6 player.

Its really disingenuous to skip literally half of Boedker tenure in SJ, Considering he was horrible 2 years ago and Sheary was killing it. Sheary put up more point in that seasons 61 game that Boedker ever has in any season.

 

[Peat]

And last i heard Shearys p/60 were better AWAY from Crosby than with (At least 16/17 Im not sure how last years numbers ended)

True both years.

 

[SEALBound]

...JR should have maybe offered Sheary...then flipped...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Its really disingenuous to skip literally half of Boedker tenure in SJ, Considering he was horrible 2 years ago and Sheary was killing it. Sheary put up more point in that seasons 61 game that Boedker ever has in any season.

It's really disingenuous to only focus on a 2 year sample size that includes his worst season in the NHL. Which one of these seasons is an outlier:

17-18: .5 PPG
16-17: .35 PPG
15-16: .64 PPG
14-15: .62 PPG
13-14: .62 PPG
12-13: .54 PPG

Huh, it's almost like one of those seasons really sticks out as different from the rest.

 

[Gurglesons]

Okay? He still had 29 ES points while playing low end 3rd line minutes. He had a better season last year than Sheary did, and people are seriously expecting Sheary to be able to bring back a 2nd round pick.

A guy who was on pace for 41 points last year, with a pace of 32 ES points, is flat out not terrible. He also had a decent playoff run with 6 points in 10 games. He's a whipping boy for Sharks fans, he's a fine middle-6 player.

No, he isn’t.

Watch him play. I live on the Pacific. He is Sheary without the stretches of actually looking effective.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

It's really disingenuous to only focus on a 2 year sample size that includes his worst season in the NHL.

Its the most relevant sample not only chronologically (most recent decent sized sample) but to the SHARKS (considering its his entire tenure with that team), AND when comparing to Sheary (Its the time frame Sheary has been playing).

But yeah your half year sample is probably better.

 

[ColePens]

No, he isn’t.

Watch him play. I live on the Pacific. He is Sheary without the stretches of actually looking effective.

His entire time in SJ was brutal. His time in Arizona was much much much more different. I think SJ fans are uber happy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The stats really don't lie here, people. Boedker last season had a pace of 32 ES points and 41 points overall per 82 games. He was also playing only 12 minutes a night at ES, while getting more defensive zone starts than offensive zone starts. He produced well in the playoffs with putting up 6 points in 10 games. He also has a history of being used as a regular PKer, although he wasn't used this season as a PKer.

Sheary last season had a pace of 31 points and 28 ES points per 82 games. He was playing 12.7 minutes a night at ES, while getting a lot more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts. He didn't produce at all in the playoffs, with only having 2 points in 12 playoff games. He has no history of being anything but an offensive player, and his game is extremely limited outside of his offense.

There really isn't an argument for Boedker being terrible, because he's just not terrible statistically. He had 1 bad season for the Sharks last year on a team he didn't fit well with, but he's been a .5 PPG player or above in every single season since 2012-2013 outside of that Sharks season.

Its the most relevant sample not only chronologically (most recent decent sized sample) but to the SHARKS (considering its his entire tenure with that team), AND when comparing to Sheary (Its the time frame Sheary has been playing).

But yeah your half year sample is probably better.

I mean, in your sample, you're intentionally including a season that is clearly an outlier from the rest of his production. Yeah, my sample makes more sense because saying he's a .5 PPG player makes a hell of a lot more sense than what you're trying to argue.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And if we can look at the last 2 years, why not look at the last 3 years:

Sheary: 93 points and 85 ES points in 184 games, pace of 41 points and 38 ES points
Boedker: 114 points and 85 ES points in 235 games, pace of 40 points and 29 ES points

Really doesn't seem like a huge difference between the two, and that's including a season that Sheary is flat out never going to repeat again and a season that is unusually bad for Boedker. Boedker and Sheary are both about equivalent of players, they're both 3rd liners.

I really don't get why people think Boedker sucks. Even if you flat out don't include any of his time with Arizona, he has 75 points in 173 games, which is a pace of 36 points per 82 games. Of those 75 points, 64 of them were at ES while he was getting 12:18 a night at ES. That's an ES points/60 of 1.80, which isn't bad at all.

 

[Gurglesons]

His entire time in SJ was brutal. His time in Arizona was much much much more different. I think SJ fans are uber happy.

Even Arizona fans felt like he was a product of the powerplay.

He’s just not a good player.

 

[TimmyD]

...JR should have maybe offered Sheary...then flipped...

I had the same thought. Say that happened would you have liked to see him flipped for picks or for a player?

 

[Pancakes]

You know it's the summer when we're wasting pages arguing about a guy we aren't even going to trade for.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The stats really don't lie here, people. Boedker last season had a pace of 32 ES points and 41 points overall per 82 games. He was also playing only 12 minutes a night at ES, while getting more defensive zone starts than offensive zone starts. He produced well in the playoffs with putting up 6 points in 10 games. He also has a history of being used as a regular PKer, although he wasn't used this season as a PKer.

Sheary last season had a pace of 31 points and 28 ES points per 82 games. He was playing 12.7 minutes a night at ES, while getting a lot more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts. He didn't produce at all in the playoffs, with only having 2 points in 12 playoff games. He has no history of being anything but an offensive player, and his game is extremely limited outside of his offense.

There really isn't an argument for Boedker being terrible, because he's just not terrible statistically. He had 1 bad season for the Sharks last year on a team he didn't fit well with, but he's been a .5 PPG player or above in every single season since 2012-2013 outside of that Sharks season.



I mean, in your sample, you're intentionally including a season that is clearly an outlier from the rest of his production. Yeah, my sample makes more sense because saying he's a .5 PPG player makes a hell of a lot more sense than what you're trying to argue.

For christ sakes i put Boedkers CAREER numbers in the SAME post. He sstill isnt as good. Ill make it easy and BOLD the better number (ppg/corsi/rel corsi/fenwick/rel fenwick)...

CAREER
Sheary - 0.51/53.1/1.3/53.4/0.8
Boedker - 0.47/48.1/-2.1/47.5/-2.9

2 Year (Sharks sample)
Sheary - 0.59/52.2/? positive number around 1.3/52.8 positive number around .8
Boedker - 0.41/48.7/-3.0/49.5/-3.2

Age
Sheary - 26
Boedker - 28

Salary
Sheary - 3.0
Boedker - 4.0

I love how removing Boedkers career worse season is ok but we should use Sheary career worst season as the comparison.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So what you're saying is that the points difference between Sheary and Boedker is minimal, and you can easily attribute the difference in possession stats to being both insignificant and a product of how they're used, seeing how Sheary is near 60% for offensive zone start% and Boedker is at 53%? Thanks for clearing that up, really supports the idea that they're pretty similar players.

The important thing isn't even the comparison between Boedker and Sheary, either. The important thing is that Boedker doesn't suck, he's an overpaid 3rd liner that you can use in a variety of ways and can give you good production from your bottom-6.

 

[SEALBound]

No, he isn’t.

Watch him play. I live on the Pacific. He is Sheary without the stretches of actually looking effective.

Not a good comparison. Hagelin is a much better comparison.

To Emp's credit, he's right about his production. He did have a bad year in SJ, the first year he was there. Then he got back to his traditional level. Problem is, when he was playing in Arizona, everyone thought he could get to this next level if he could just play with some better players. Hell, we thought it here too. Go back a couple off seasons and you'll see lineups here littered with Boedker, mine included. Fact is though, when he got to SJ, he was the same Boedker. There was no extra level. Except now, the Sharks were paying A LOT more for it than what others before them had to. No different than the Ducks and Hagelin.

I have no doubt Sharks fans are happy he's gone but I believe it was much more about Boedker not meeting their lofty expectations vs his actual, realistic performance.

You know it's the summer when we're wasting pages arguing about a guy we aren't even going to trade for.

 

[Gurglesons]

So what you're saying is that the points difference between Sheary and Boedker is minimal, and you can easily attribute the difference in possession stats to being both insignificant and a product of how they're used, seeing how Sheary is near 60% for offensive zone start% and Boedker is at 53%? Thanks for clearing that up, really supports the idea that they're pretty similar players.

Weren’t you making this same argument for how good Sheary was last summer?

Boedker is not a good player, San Jose clearly off loaded his contract.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Weren’t you making this same argument for how good Sheary was last summer?

Boedker is not a good player, San Jose clearly off loaded his contract.

Where did I ever say Sheary was bad?

Sheary's a high end scoring 3rd line winger that doesn't provide much more. Put him in a top-6 role and you'd likely get 2nd line production out of him, even without playing him with Crosby or someone like Crosby. Boedker is a 3rd line winger who can provide you with decent depth scoring in your bottom-6 (as evidence by his 1.80 ES points/60 with San Jose) and can also provide versatility and PKing ability. There's really not much of a value difference between the two.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

So what you're saying is that the points difference between Sheary and Boedker is minimal, and you can easily attribute the difference in possession stats to being both insignificant and a product of how they're used, seeing how Sheary is near 60% for offensive zone start% and Boedker is at 53%? Thanks for clearing that up, really supports the idea that they're pretty similar players.

Only if you completely lie about what the stats are showing but ok cool.

Over their career Sheary has produced more.
Over the last 2 season Sheary has produced significantly more.
Over their career Sheary has been a very good possession player both overall and relative to his team.
Over their career Boedker can been a Carter Rowney level possession anchor both overall and relative to his team despite being given much more significant advantages than Rowney.

And all of this despite Sheary only scoring 9% of his points on the PP and Boedker scoring 24% of his points on the PP.

So who has been better ... Sheary, easy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Only if you completely lie about what the stats are showing but ok cool.

Over their career Sheary has produced more.

Inflated by 1 season of playing with Sidney Crosby. Yes, it doesn't stick out as odd at all that Sheary had a 70 point pace in 1 season and a 30 point pace or below in his 2 other seasons. Nothing odd there.

Over the last 2 season Sheary has produced significantly more.

What a shock: when you use a 2 season sample size, with 1 player having 1 unsustainably good season and 1 player having an unusually bad season, the player with the unsustainable season produces more. Shocking.

Over their career Sheary has been a very good possession player both overall and relative to his team.

It's really not hard to have good possession stats when you're starting 60% of your zone starts in the offensive zone. Sheary only having a CF% Rel of 1.3% in his career, despite starting in the offensive zone 59.2% of the time, isn't an advantage for him. Considering the zone starts and who he plays with, he should be a lot better than that.

Let's break it down. Sheary's a scoring top-9 winger that doesn't provide anything beyond his production. If you put him in a top-6 role, he'll likely produce at a 2nd liner rate, something like 20-25 goals and 40-45 points. Boedker is a 3rd liner that provides solid depth scoring (not as good as Sheary's, but still not bad) and also gives you more beyond that scoring, mainly PKing ability and versatility. There really isn't a huge difference between the two, especially not to the point where Boedker is "terrible" or something like that.

 

[JackFr]

1. Sheary is better than Boedker
2. Boedker is a worse version of Hagelin
3. I'm very sorry for proposing so many bad Boedker trades back in 2015