Salary Cap: Salary Cap + Roster Building | Cap Details + Links in First Post | Phillin' Fine

[ColePens]

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Pearson for Gudbranson trade thread is here.
W-B/S thread is here.

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[Nakawick]

Yes. To get someone like Skinner or Panarin or Duchene, it's a pure fantasy that will not happen. It would take A) too much luck to get one of the top FAs and B) too many moves to clear the cap space in order to make it happen even if they were willing to come here.

Which is why I said that if we were to move Kessel and back fill it with one of the guys in the 2nd tier of players, that might be realistic - but aiming above that is living in a fantasy land.

I would not rule out anything. Did JR trade for Kessel? Why can’t he trade him again? Or trade for another elite winger. Was JR not in on Duchene? Is JR not mandated to win cups?
Nothing is a given, but signing a FA winger is certainly not some fantasy land pie in the sky suggestion.
Freeing cap space is not hard, Kessel and a D goes a long way. We still have other salary that can/could be moved if needed as well.

I would take Duchene at 8.5 or Skinner at 7.5 ahead of Kessel in a heart beat.

 

[Peat]

Re #1. Even if Kessel doesn't expand his list (and I'm skeptical that he would), him at 6.8m with a 82m cap vs 6.8m/8m with a 71.4m makes a big difference. Even more so that he's now no longer seen as someone you "can't win with". I mean you're talking about 9.5m/11.2% of the cap vs 8.2% in terms of cap percentage.

Those are things in our favour, but I don't think they make a big one if we've only got a few teams interested and maybe not that seriously. We need a couple of teams that are serious about it - and that doesn't happen unless Kessel wants it.

We would have to move a lot more then just Kessel to accomplish this. Right now just moving Maatta should solve our cap issues for the season. If we want to sign someone who makes more than Kessel, we would have to find a way to A) trade Kessel without bringing back additional assets and B) move someone else to accommodate the raise that someone like Skinner would get. And we'd need to get a replacement for the player we just traded.

While its not happening, and would be quite difficult if they even tried, the prospect of them trimming down the D even more if currently pretty attractive.

I honestly think it comes down to the Maatta thing.

We have too many natural RWs. We already lost Sprong because of it. With our need for cap, the development of Jake and Rust into 20+ goal guys and the addition of Bjugstad and McCann as additional 20 goal potential players here it just does not make sense to keep Kessel. Unless for some reason they finally decide to run Jake - Crosby - Kessel as L1.

It is either Hornqvist or Kessel and at this point Hornqvist does so much more on each line.

We don't actually have too many RWs at the moment imo - not with Bjoogs settling into C - and our next tranche of prospects is very LH dominant.

How easy do you think it is to play with Sid or Geno and put up 70+ points consistently? I get a lot of that is PP points, but he is still producing 40+ ES points and importantly, he stays healthy.

Who can we replace him with that provides 40+ ES points consistently, stays healthy, and can run their own line if/when Malkin is injured?

ZAR has a 42 ES pace in the top 6 right now and he ain't all that. Now, sure, the consistency and health things are issues... but if ZAR can do it, a better player can definitely do it. A better less brittle player.

JR makes moves. Sometimes they work. He's batting about .500 right now this year so I wouldn't call him a huge problem. I will say I'm not sure he's the right GM to make the shrewd moves to extend our window.

Right now I'd break it down and say his percentage for first up moves is a fair number under .500 but his percentage for fix up moves is insane.

Please do not delude yourself into thinking that cold streaks like this are limited to Kessel. I mean Malkin who is an elite player went 41 games when he only scored 3 ES goals. And most of the realistic options to replace Kessel in FA (aka no Skinner, Panarin or Duchene, if he'd even be willing to move to the wing) will also go through similar stretches.

Malkin's cold streak is a little on Kessel though. He's the guy feeding the ammo.

 

[mpp9]

Please do not delude yourself into thinking that cold streaks like this are limited to Kessel. I mean Malkin who is an elite player went 41 games when he only scored 3 ES goals. And most of the realistic options to replace Kessel in FA (aka no Skinner, Panarin or Duchene, if he'd even be willing to move to the wing) will also go through similar stretches.

I'm quite aware players go through cold stretches. I watch the games just like you.

I'm not even in favor of landing one of the big name wingers in free agency. It'll be too costly and unlikely to happen anyway.

I'm saying Malkin could use a player who still brings something to the table if he isn't scoring. Backchecking, helping with faceoffs, net front, taking hits to make plays. Generally not being an abomination on the ice if he's not scoring. You can find such a player quite easily.

I have zero interest in watching Malkin and Kessel together next season.

 

[Riptide]

I would not rule out anything. Did JR trade for Kessel? Why can’t he trade him again? Or trade for another elite winger. Was JR not in on Duchene? Is JR not mandated to win cups?
Nothing is a given, but signing a FA winger is certainly not some fantasy land pie in the sky suggestion.
Freeing cap space is not hard, Kessel and a D goes a long way. We still have other salary that can/could be moved if needed as well.

I would take Duchene at 8.5 or Skinner at 7.5 ahead of Kessel in a heart beat.

Yes Kessel+ a D goes a long way - but it doesn't get you there. And if you trade Bjugstad or JJ/Gudbranson, while that would give you what you need, you also need to replace those players, which in turn simply adds more complexity to the scenario. And of course that's assuming that you're moving these player's without bringing back salary - which is far from a guarantee.

 

[Nakawick]

Yes Kessel+ a D goes a long way - but it doesn't get you there. And if you trade Bjugstad or JJ/Gudbranson, while that would give you what you need, you also need to replace those players, which in turn simply adds more complexity to the scenario. And of course that's assuming that you're moving these player's without bringing back salary - which is far from a guarantee.

You can add Hornqvist to the list as well. He is a 5.3mil bottom 6 pp specialist, middle 6 at best who doesn’t PK or play in all situations. He plays a hard nosed style that has a history of slowing down players as they get past 30, we may already be seeing his decline. I love his energy, but that magic 25 goal shovel has to accompany it.

Kessel is a fussy eater. Ron Wilson called him uncoachable. He isn’t going to change for anyone. His 5 on 5 play has been dreadful and he is over 30. His speed and shot have noticeably declined and I don’t think our PP% suffers with Bjustad or Jake in his place.

 

[Riptide]

You can add Hornqvist to the list as well. He is a 5.3mil bottom 6 pp specialist, middle 6 at best who doesn’t PK or play in all situations. He plays a hard nosed style that has a history of slowing down players as they get past 30, we may already be seeing his decline. I love his energy, but that magic 25 goal shovel has to accompany it.

Disagree. There have been multiple examples of player's like him who have long standing career's well into their mid/late 30s. Hornqvist's biggest advantage is that his game doesn't depend on his skating or his hands, and typically these are the quickest things to go, and neither of these are major risks for him.

 

[Nakawick]

Disagree. There have been multiple examples of player's like him who have long standing career's well into their mid/late 30s. Hornqvist's biggest advantage is that his game doesn't depend on his skating or his hands, and typically these are the quickest things to go, and neither of these are major risks for him.

I hope you are right Rip. Hopefully he can right the ship and avoid injuries, particularly concussions.

 

[Riptide]

I hope you are right Rip. Hopefully he can right the ship and avoid injuries, particularly concussions.

I mean if he's getting concussed on a monthly basis that's obviously going to change things, and his style doesn't exactly help him there. But if he stays healthy-ish and we're just talking about age or the odd injury here or there I'm not all that worried.

 

[EightyOne]

As long as a coach isn't getting in the way of a roster's success, I'm not going to ***** about it. Sullivan has done way more good than bad here.

Overall positive effect? Yes.

Last two years? Not buying that.

 

[Trade]

The first person I ask about Kessel with is Minnesota for Zucker. He is literally an even more skilled version of a Rust/McCann- type player.

 

[Gurglesons]

Overall positive effect? Yes.

Last two years? Not buying that.

Weird. Was his hate of Kessel last year a fuel for Kessel’s career season or just a matter of luck?

 

[pokey10]

This summer I want to see JR look all around the league for players that have missed the least games over the past 3 years and hand them a blank check. I'm exhausted of constant, debilitating, season changing injuries.

 

[ChaosAgent]

This summer I want to see JR look all around the league for players that have missed the least games over the past 3 years and hand them a blank check. I'm exhausted of constant, debilitating, season changing injuries.

I'd rather a player miss 15 games in the regular season but be incrementally better in the post-season than someone with lower upside but better regular season durability.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

This summer I want to see JR look all around the league for players that have missed the least games over the past 3 years and hand them a blank check. I'm exhausted of constant, debilitating, season changing injuries.

That's not how this works...

That's not how any of this works.

 

[mpp9]

The first person I ask about Kessel with is Minnesota for Zucker. He is literally an even more skilled version of a Rust/McCann- type player.

I don't get why more people on here aren't cool with that type of move this summer. He's exactly the type of player who'd help get us back to a 2016 speed/tenacity type of team. He's got Hagelin wheels, McCann empty net powers and Guentzel type fearlessness and smarts around the net with legit finishing ability.

He's small and had injury issues in the past so there's a risk, sure. But in terms of play style and ES scoring, he's pretty ideal. Combine that with him having almost moved at the deadline for a meh roster player and a pick, that's something we should be all over. And maybe JR was, but it's not something we could do with the injury situation on defense and with a Kessel move making more sense in the summer.

 

[EightyOne]

Weird. Was his hate of Kessel last year a fuel for Kessel’s career season or just a matter of luck?

I don't know. But I'll let you remind me of how many times this year he's motivated them to play for a whole hour.

About 39 times, eh? Maybe less since some of those wins were 5 min effort games and a goalie trying really hard.

 

[Peat]

I don't know. But I'll let you remind me of how many times this year he's motivated them to play for a whole hour.

About 39 times, eh? Maybe less since some of those wins were 5 min effort games and a goalie trying really hard.

Is that less or more than an average coach would have got out of them? I don't know the answer to that for sure either way, but there is more than ample reason to believe that squad had/has some pretty serious mental/physical fatigue issues and a big focus on the post-season. That's going to set a pretty severe limit on how many full on 60 minute efforts you're going to get.


Btw, I can believe that Sully is behind the Kessel trade push - or at least was last summer - for all he does clearly admire what he can do. We know the media were probably pushing the message at the behest of someone in the org and it probably wasn't Rutherford. We know it was Sully who threw Kessel under the bus by saying he wasn't injured. The rumours of Kessel complaining about being on the third line and Kessel refusing to rest when injured are both things that'd really grind Sully's gears.

That doesn't mean he can't have a workable professional relationship with him.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Disagree. There have been multiple examples of player's like him who have long standing career's well into their mid/late 30s. Hornqvist's biggest advantage is that his game doesn't depend on his skating or his hands, and typically these are the quickest things to go, and neither of these are major risks for him.

Compared to last season he has seen quite the decline in ice time. I am not sure if it's because that's all he can take, or if it's an effort to preserve him.

 

[Peat]

Compared to last season he has seen quite the decline in ice time. I am not sure if it's because that's all he can take, or if it's an effort to preserve him.

I think that one's mainly a case of less time with Geno & Sid; he only spent about a fifth of his time away from them last year, but nearly half of it this season. Play top 6, get top 6 minutes. Play 3rd line, get 3rd line minutes. He is getting a tad less time when with those guys, but its not the main source.

This said - if the org is using him less, then whatever the reason, he becomes more of a potential trade guy.

 

[Dangles78]

Sheary has 10 games to either score 7 goals...or 8 points for the Pens to get a 3rd.

In his last 10 games, he scored 4 goals, 3 assists. However, 3 of those points came against....you guessed it...the Pens.

 

[Shockmaster]

Sheary has 10 games to either score 7 goals...or 8 points for the Pens to get a 3rd.

In his last 10 games, he scored 4 goals, 3 assists. However, 3 of those points came against....you guessed it...the Pens.

Well that was the wrong game to pitch a shutout.....

 

[Peat]

Sheary has 10 games to either score 7 goals...or 8 points for the Pens to get a 3rd.

In his last 10 games, he scored 4 goals, 3 assists. However, 3 of those points came against....you guessed it...the Pens.

I'm still ironically annoyed at DeSmith's totally unnecessary shutout of Buffalo.

 

[Dangles78]

I'm still ironically annoyed at DeSmith's totally unnecessary shutout of Buffalo.

Haha right. They scored 5 goals in that meeting. DeSmith should've jumped out of the net whenever Sheary had that puck towards the end of the game.

 

[Riptide]

I would not rule out anything. Did JR trade for Kessel? Why can’t he trade him again? Or trade for another elite winger. Was JR not in on Duchene? Is JR not mandated to win cups?
Nothing is a given, but signing a FA winger is certainly not some fantasy land pie in the sky suggestion.
Freeing cap space is not hard, Kessel and a D goes a long way. We still have other salary that can/could be moved if needed as well.

I would take Duchene at 8.5 or Skinner at 7.5 ahead of Kessel in a heart beat.

So would I. However that's not the question. It's whether Duchene or Skinner would come here for the role we'd want them in at that price - and I suspect that both of those numbers are low.

That aside, sure JR did trade for him, but odds are the situation with him (in respect to when we acquired him) has changed. Then he had an 8m cap hit against a 74m cap and had a 8 team no trade clause that he not only stuck to, but constructed in such a way to really limit Toronto's options. I mean it doesn't take a genius to realize that Toronto isn't going to want to move him to Montreal or Boston. And other than us, everyone else on the list couldn't have afford him without moving out big salary (and then would have created their own issues with multiple big priced players).

As for trading him again, he can - that's never been the issue. The issue (where you're getting into fantasy land) is where he does without taking back salary and then moves more bodies (while replacing them with cheaper options) in order to free up the cap space that will be needed to sign one of the top FA players this summer. That's the fantasy. You can spout about how it "could" happen all you want... we both know it's not going to happen, hence the fantasy.

Kessel might very well be traded this summer - but it won't be done to bring in Skinner, Panarin or Duchene.