Rumor: Sabres trying to trade Ristolainen - Part II

[Yatzhee]

Considering his coach told him he had to change that? Yeah, it was definitely not a good point in his career. And still 6 better than Risto, who's not a 50 goal-scorer, nor, you know, Ovechkin. And yeah. His coach STILL told him that had to change. Even though he WAS Ovechkin. So it's kind of hard to defend it for Risto.

L. O. L.

Ovechkin is a true generational talent.
Ovechkin never, and it's not even debatable, but never was on a team like the Sabres where he was drafted at the start of a complete rebuild.
Ovechkin is not a defenseman eating 27 minutes a game against the worlds best players game in and game out as the only true NHL Defenseman on the roster for 2.5 to 3 seasons.

To try and compare any players +/- to Risto's, who admittedly has his warts, is quite honestly, laughable. OEL comes somewhat close, but even Arizona maintained to some extent. What Risto faced here in Buffalo was an onslaught, primarily by the complete rebuild that was initiated. And once again, that's not to say he doesn't have his warts, but to suggest the underlying numbers on Risto represent who he is as a player without remotely acknowledging the situation he's been in isn't apples to oranges, it's apples to ghost peppers.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

When you're -41? Not really.

Kinda like scoring 62 wins and then going 0-4 when it matters? Still a good team, I’d argue.

 

[DFC]

Yeah I'm sure it was just his coach "telling him to change it", not a new system, a new coach, rotated supporting cast, etc. Stupid Buffalo must have forgot to tell O'Reilly to "change" his -23 too

...Except his coach is on record saying it wasn't acceptable.

 

[DFC]

Kinda like scoring 62 wins and then going 0-4 when it matters? Still a good team, I’d argue.

Good team? Yes. Very flawed team though.

 

[DFC]

L. O. L.

Ovechkin is a true generational talent.
Ovechkin never, and it's not even debatable, but never was on a team like the Sabres where he was drafted at the start of a complete rebuild.
Ovechkin is not a defenseman eating 27 minutes a game against the worlds best players game in and game out as the only true NHL Defenseman on the roster for 2.5 to 3 seasons.

To try and compare any players +/- to Risto's, who admittedly has his warts, is quite honestly, laughable. OEL comes somewhat close, but even Arizona maintained to some extent. What Risto faced here in Buffalo was an onslaught, primarily by the complete rebuild that was initiated. And once again, that's not to say he doesn't have his warts, but to suggest the underlying numbers on Risto represent who he is as a player without remotely acknowledging the situation he's been in isn't apples to oranges, it's apples to ghost peppers.

I wasn't the one who made the comparison. I was the one who said, at the extremes, +/- actually does show something. It's just as ridiculous to discount it entirely.

I've said continuously I think Risto is a good player. But he's being portrayed here as a top-pairing guy, or a guy who can land a good top-six forward like Ehlers or RNH, and I'm just not seeing it.

 

[Yatzhee]

I wasn't the one who made the comparison. I was the one who said, at the extremes, +/- actually does show something. It's just as ridiculous to discount it entirely.

I've said continuously I think Risto is a good player. But he's being portrayed here as a top-pairing guy, or a guy who can land a good top-six forward like Ehlers or RNH, and I'm just not seeing it.

Well, it's not that I disagree with you, but every GM in this league and their staff are well aware of what Risto was up against here in Buffalo for his first 4 seasons. And while fans may not see him as a true #1 D man for an organization, I would suspect the reason you are hearing from some sources that Botterill wasn't shopping Risto but he is listening, and those same sources are saying the price is high, is probably for good reason. And that's not to say the price asked will be the price received, it's just indicative of the unique circumstances surrounding Risto's situation. There is going to be a few GM's out there that are salivating at that price coming down, and they and their staffs I am sure have a plan or plans to maximize Risto's strengths.

Botterill I am more than sure, is still licking his wounds from the owners of the Sabres making the decision not to pay ROR's bonus, thereby forcing Jason to take the deal on the table that he could before July 1st, that St. Louis deal. He isn't going to let an asset garner that return again. Not to say Risto could become an ROR situation to the fullest, but Risto is highly valuable. When you combine all of the working parts on a potential Risto trade, including and especially Risto's abilities themselves, it becomes obvious a 2C is what is going to be the return.

Which 2C, RNH, Turris, etc....etc... who knows? Buffalo currently sits with a great deal of NHL caliber players, both forwards and more defense. Something is coming for sure, maybe it's a package deal that fulfills both the Sabres needs and their trade partners. And just some food for thought, everyone's busy looking at teams like Tampa who were reported interested at the deadline and some conversations took place around the draft, there are more teams involved than just Tampa on Risto. And that's not a guess, take it with that ole grain of salt.
But before the season begins, I don't see Risto in Buffalo, and once again, who has the 2C that is of Botterill's mold. There was rumor of Malkin possibly moving for example. And given Botterill's prior service to the Penguins combined with Pegula's prior associations with the Penguins, ya just never know. But the example to point to that possible package scenario.

Like I said, that ole' grain of salt, but when Risto goes, he won't be going alone out of Buffalo, call it a hunch.

 

[GumbyCan2]

hes -41 now there is a rumor the oilers will give Nuge for him a strong 2 way center who put up 28 goals and 41 assists for a -41 5 goal 38 assists so called defenseman. God the oilers would be dumb to do this.

Buffalo should deal him to Winnipeg to play with Laine. They could be a combined -100. Maybe they could invent a new trophy in Vegas at years end for "Most Prolific Help the opponent score on your own Net Award". Wpg needs another RHS D-man with "problems" now that Trouba is gone.

 

[GumbyCan2]

This. Risto only has that kind of value to a team desperate for a righty on the PP, who happens to have an extra top-six scorer they can give up. It's a really hard match to make. And the bottom-feeding teams who might use Risto in that role probably aren't thrilled about the idea of him being brought in as a top guy. It would mostly be teams looking at him like a complementary piece to their top-4, or maybe bottom pairing.

How about Bryan little and Jack Roslovic for Rasmus Ritolainen and Tage Thompson? Flls Winnipeg's need for a top RHS d-man, and a young "potential player" for Maurice to "rot on the bench or the press box". And, Buffalo has their pick for a #2 C, old proven guy with weights holding him back a bit each year or the new young guy, unproven bbut not "warn out" or to be dismissed totally, yet, in Jack Roslovic,. JR would be much closer to home, in a viable US market team and actually might compliment Buffalo's structure, systems, under new coaches, Kruger's command who knows what will come?

 

[is the answer jesus]

How about Bryan little and Jack Roslovic for Rasmus Ritolainen and Tage Thompson? Flls Winnipeg's need for a top RHS d-man, and a young "potential player" for Maurice to "rot on the bench or the press box". And, Buffalo has their pick for a #2 C, old proven guy with weights holding him back a bit each year or the new young guy, unproven bbut not "warn out" or to be dismissed totally, yet, in Jack Roslovic,. JR would be much closer to home, in a viable US market team and actually might compliment Buffalo's structure, systems, under new coaches, Kruger's command who knows what will come?

Little is overpaid and on the wrong side of 30. I think if he could be moved for anything of value it would have already been done. So that leaves Roslovic for Ristolainen and Thompson. Yeah I think I'll pass on that.

 

[Snowman]

How about Bryan little and Jack Roslovic for Rasmus Ritolainen and Tage Thompson? Flls Winnipeg's need for a top RHS d-man, and a young "potential player" for Maurice to "rot on the bench or the press box". And, Buffalo has their pick for a #2 C, old proven guy with weights holding him back a bit each year or the new young guy, unproven bbut not "warn out" or to be dismissed totally, yet, in Jack Roslovic,. JR would be much closer to home, in a viable US market team and actually might compliment Buffalo's structure, systems, under new coaches, Kruger's command who knows what will come?

No interest in Risto at all from Winnipeg.

 

[GumbyCan2]

Samberg? Gustafsson? Green?

BTW, what's the deal with Green? Has he been hurt?

Luke Green had a major concussion but was rehabbed, recovered and evaluated properly. Held him out almost full season. sucks for young guy with hopes and timing and all.
Also, I just saw an article last week highlighting Luke Green and his "prospectus". He has twin brother who also plays hockey. Last year was the first year they were actually apart from each other, hockey-wise and in life, living daily. The old adage of tins being internally connected in thought and feelings and outlook, etc. He needed to adjust to 'life away from his "other-self", his other half'.
Kinda' interesting but actually has some merit to it, socially and scientifically emotionally.
I boldly predict a 3 to 5 year span where if he is progressed, healed and emotionally stronger, ready that he Could? project into the next Teppo Numminen type player for Winnipeg, or another team if he is off-loaded. He has shown that kind of positional, steadiness, good with the puck, heads-up, forward looking but responsible on his defensive zone and duties that euqals Numminen's style. Luke Green also has a smart, quick and solid point shot, with quick hands for delfecting puck themto safety areas, controlling in tight, dangerous areas, and in making quick passes out of danger-offense starting plays.
he's not a Paul coffey or Josh Morrissey or Dustin Byfuglein by any means. He could become a very steady, useful, relied upon defender that helps his more than not. Or he may never become more than AHL regular, but...I predict the aforementioned to be more likely.

 

[DFC]

Well, it's not that I disagree with you, but every GM in this league and their staff are well aware of what Risto was up against here in Buffalo for his first 4 seasons. And while fans may not see him as a true #1 D man for an organization, I would suspect the reason you are hearing from some sources that Botterill wasn't shopping Risto but he is listening, and those same sources are saying the price is high, is probably for good reason. And that's not to say the price asked will be the price received, it's just indicative of the unique circumstances surrounding Risto's situation. There is going to be a few GM's out there that are salivating at that price coming down, and they and their staffs I am sure have a plan or plans to maximize Risto's strengths.

Every source I've seen, at least in the off-season, has said Buffalo is shopping him.

I realize GMs/scouts probably know what Risto is up against. But there's a balance here. Just because he gets demolished as a top-pairing guy on a bad team doesn't mean he's gonna be a quality top pairing guy on a good team. He could easily slot as low as a 4/5, and be used mainly as a PP specialist, but that's only if a team needs one. And the list of teams who would supplant their #1D on the PP, possibly upsetting the apple cart, isn't long.

All I'm really saying is Buffalo probably can't land a quality scorer here. At which point I don't even think it's worth trading Risto, because you might be able to slot him more appropriately now. I'm not sure if Dahlin has overtaken him on the PP yet.

I think on most decent teams Risto would be about a 30 point Dman, because his 5v5 points would be better, while his PP points would take a big hit, and he would still come with some pretty big defensive warts. That's not a bad player, but he's probably worth more to Buffalo than his return could net them.

Botterill I am more than sure, is still licking his wounds from the owners of the Sabres making the decision not to pay ROR's bonus, thereby forcing Jason to take the deal on the table that he could before July 1st, that St. Louis deal. He isn't going to let an asset garner that return again. Not to say Risto could become an ROR situation to the fullest, but Risto is highly valuable. When you combine all of the working parts on a potential Risto trade, including and especially Risto's abilities themselves, it becomes obvious a 2C is what is going to be the return.

I agree with everything except Risto being highly valuable. I think, at best, he's a massive gamble. I mean, how many players in the past 5 years have hit a -41? (Answer: Only one other in the entire salary cap era.) I understand that the stat has to be taken with a grain of salt, and that it doesn't mean Risto is the worst defensive player in the league. But still. It can't be entirely discounted either. Especially when we're talking historically bad. It's not like that has no effect whatsoever. It's not the be-all, end-all, but it has a pretty big effect.

Which 2C, RNH, Turris, etc....etc... who knows? Buffalo currently sits with a great deal of NHL caliber players, both forwards and more defense. Something is coming for sure, maybe it's a package deal that fulfills both the Sabres needs and their trade partners. And just some food for thought, everyone's busy looking at teams like Tampa who were reported interested at the deadline and some conversations took place around the draft, there are more teams involved than just Tampa on Risto. And that's not a guess, take it with that ole grain of salt.

I don't think Risto gets anything close to those players. I don't see Ken Holland being desperate just yet in Edmonton. Nashville could shelter Risto adequately, but he wouldn't be a PP starter there, and I don't see why else a team would be overly interested in him. Edmonton is a good target, but RNH is shooting for the moon.

I think TB's proposal was likely centered around Miller, which I think is around the quality of player other teams are offering too.

But before the season begins, I don't see Risto in Buffalo, and once again, who has the 2C that is of Botterill's mold. There was rumor of Malkin possibly moving for example. And given Botterill's prior service to the Penguins combined with Pegula's prior associations with the Penguins, ya just never know. But the example to point to that possible package scenario.

Malkin? I think that's a straight up pipe dream. The add from the Sabres would have to be massive.

The only way Risto lands a quality 2C is if the other team has an extra 2C lying around, and also if they're desperate for PP help. I'm not seeing the fit. I mean, I know you're talking about a package deal, but I don't think Risto would be the main piece in it from Buffalo's side.

Like I said, that ole' grain of salt, but when Risto goes, he won't be going alone out of Buffalo, call it a hunch.

I think he might go too. I just think the player coming back would be more of a project, less of a sure thing.

 

[These Are The Days]

+/- is a garbage stat if you have no clue how to properly utilize it or understand its context. A player plays 44 games for a team that is +60 and scores 7 points in the process and is -5. This is an example of Andrej Sustr.... bar none of the WORST players I have ever seen and I'm quite surprised it's not worse. Another example, a player with 73 games and 23 points is a whopping +50 on a team with a scoring differential of +85. Does that mean Jeff Schultz is some kind of God on defense? Absolutely not. He just was on the ice when the rest of the Capitals were going globetrotters on everyone's ass. There is nothing wrong with the +/- here. It tells the story in context when you realize that the +50 was an outlier of Schultz's career and on par with Sustr's playing on stacked Lightning teams and being lousy.

Risto being -41 is almost as bad as Buffalo's -45 scoring differential and nearly twice as bad as his next teammate in Thompson at -22. He's obviously overextended. He's obviously overworked. But when it's THAT bad you cannot dismiss the fact that his exacerbated stats are not only a symptom of something far greater but it's indicative of how much he struggled personally. It's a freaking a system of calculation. Don't blame it when you see numbers you don't like

 

[GumbyCan2]

And Ryan O'Reilly went from a -23 last year with the Sabres to a +22 with the Blues this year by coincidence.....obviously the teams he played with had nothing to do the +45 change in the stat and he magically became the Selke Winner this year.

Absolutely, the "team' can make a difference for all kinds of reasons...line-mates, zone starts, short-handed play regularly, poor goaltender(s), poor defensive coaching, structure, etc.
Lookng into all these factors, sometimes it can be on the player and his defensive ability (or lack-there-of). Look at Patrik laine on the Jets. 10 players were + players. Many of them with more emphasis on offense, o-zone starts. more power play than short-handed, butt... Laine had zero short-handed responsibility or minutes. He was a regular on the power play, he played up and down the line-up somewhat and he had many offensive-zone starts. More than D-zone responsible starts. This tilts toward the +/- scale bing more on the players' abilities defensively, or least lack of accomplishment successfully defensively if said player has a low - # (or high # to the negative-). I believe Ristolainen can become an improved defensive player in a more solid system, basically a better overall team, but the numbers can't be entirely written off to "bad team" only scenario. Laine had the worst - #'s of any regular top-6 forward in the league. Yet the Jets were not the worst defensive structure or output team in the NHL last year. the players' abilities on th defensive are related to his +/- number to a larger-than-not degree. Ristolainen has a long ways to go improving his defensive abilities no matter what team he plays for! Just like Patrik Laine has to improve his defensive abilities personally, in order to help his more positively unless he scores over 100 goals, than the - side # may not matter as much.

 

[Yatzhee]

Every source I've seen, at least in the off-season, has said Buffalo is shopping him.

I realize GMs/scouts probably know what Risto is up against. But there's a balance here. Just because he gets demolished as a top-pairing guy on a bad team doesn't mean he's gonna be a quality top pairing guy on a good team. He could easily slot as low as a 4/5, and be used mainly as a PP specialist, but that's only if a team needs one. And the list of teams who would supplant their #1D on the PP, possibly upsetting the apple cart, isn't long.

All I'm really saying is Buffalo probably can't land a quality scorer here. At which point I don't even think it's worth trading Risto, because you might be able to slot him more appropriately now. I'm not sure if Dahlin has overtaken him on the PP yet.

I think on most decent teams Risto would be about a 30 point Dman, because his 5v5 points would be better, while his PP points would take a big hit, and he would still come with some pretty big defensive warts. That's not a bad player, but he's probably worth more to Buffalo than his return could net them.



I agree with everything except Risto being highly valuable. I think, at best, he's a massive gamble. I mean, how many players in the past 5 years have hit a -41? (Answer: Only one other in the entire salary cap era.) I understand that the stat has to be taken with a grain of salt, and that it doesn't mean Risto is the worst defensive player in the league. But still. It can't be entirely discounted either. Especially when we're talking historically bad. It's not like that has no effect whatsoever. It's not the be-all, end-all, but it has a pretty big effect.



I don't think Risto gets anything close to those players. I don't see Ken Holland being desperate just yet in Edmonton. Nashville could shelter Risto adequately, but he wouldn't be a PP starter there, and I don't see why else a team would be overly interested in him. Edmonton is a good target, but RNH is shooting for the moon.

I think TB's proposal was likely centered around Miller, which I think is around the quality of player other teams are offering too.



Malkin? I think that's a straight up pipe dream. The add from the Sabres would have to be massive.

The only way Risto lands a quality 2C is if the other team has an extra 2C lying around, and also if they're desperate for PP help. I'm not seeing the fit. I mean, I know you're talking about a package deal, but I don't think Risto would be the main piece in it from Buffalo's side.



I think he might go too. I just think the player coming back would be more of a project, less of a sure thing.

I don't think Botterill is going to go on a gamble for 2C, the Sabres can't afford to imo.
But, only time will tell what he garners for Risto. Like I said, I don't believe he'll be moving alone when it happens. But, only time will tell. I enjoyed the conversation, truly.

 

[benedictTavares]

Just keep him? I mean I doubt you get full value and maybe sabres take a big step this year and he shows his real value.

 

[GumbyCan2]

+/- is a garbage stat if you have no clue how to properly utilize it or understand its context. A player plays 44 games for a team that is +60 and scores 7 points in the process and is -5. This is an example of Andrej Sustr.... bar none of the WORST players I have ever seen and I'm quite surprised it's not worse. Another example, a player with 73 games and 23 points is a whopping +50 on a team with a scoring differential of +85. Does that mean Jeff Schultz is some kind of God on defense? Absolutely not. He just was on the ice when the rest of the Capitals were going globetrotters on everyone's ass. There is nothing wrong with the +/- here. It tells the story in context when you realize that the +50 was an outlier of Schultz's career and on par with Sustr's playing on stacked Lightning teams and being lousy.

Risto being -41 is almost as bad as Buffalo's -45 scoring differential and nearly twice as bad as his next teammate in Thompson at -22. He's obviously overextended. He's obviously overworked. But when it's THAT bad you cannot dismiss the fact that his exacerbated stats are not only a symptom of something far greater but it's indicative of how much he struggled personally.

Exactly! The player has to be able to affect the number of goals being scored against your team to some degree. It can't always be dum-luck the puck bounced over a team-mates stick, through anothers' legs and did a double-back flip over the goalies glove scored against while a said player is also on the ice. Especially if you are a top defense position player on an NHL team, and you contribute more than your share of goals for and ssists! To have a very poor - #'s has to mean something negative about your personal play, impact!

 

[GumbyCan2]

L. O. L.

Ovechkin is a true generational talent.
Ovechkin never, and it's not even debatable, but never was on a team like the Sabres where he was drafted at the start of a complete rebuild.
Ovechkin is not a defenseman eating 27 minutes a game against the worlds best players game in and game out as the only true NHL Defenseman on the roster for 2.5 to 3 seasons.

To try and compare any players +/- to Risto's, who admittedly has his warts, is quite honestly, laughable. OEL comes somewhat close, but even Arizona maintained to some extent. What Risto faced here in Buffalo was an onslaught, primarily by the complete rebuild that was initiated. And once again, that's not to say he doesn't have his warts, but to suggest the underlying numbers on Risto represent who he is as a player without remotely acknowledging the situation he's been in isn't apples to oranges, it's apples to ghost peppers.

I totally get that Buffalo's structure, coached team defensive-system sucked, for a few years at least. I truly thought that Phil
Housley's teaching, influence and mind-set would turn things defensively, and thus impact offensive output positively, because of his own skills and mind-set and instincts as an offensive-stud defensemn with very decent defending abilities, but...to no avail. Ristolainen's #'s and impact got worse defensively under Housley? Go figure.

 

[GumbyCan2]

The be-all/ end-all for me is to see him sent to the Jets for something of value Buffalo can use. Ristolainen would fit right into their declining defensive abilities as a team. But they could have the first 100+ point D-man in a long time, if he were to be played on 2 lines, all offensive starts, power play and all, with him feeding Laine who learns to connect on the puck like his 2nd season, again, from set-up passes. And played when Scheifele and Wheeler are on he ice 30 minutes a game! Winnipeg Jets/ True North enterprise are waning toward becoming the next best place for Finnish players, ha, ha, ha!
I hear they are in on prying Jesse Puljujarvi out of Edmonton too?

 

[Dan Kelly]

^Sabres can have Jesse, but we want someone other than your most defensively inept player!

 

[MagnumForce2]

^Sabres can have Jesse, but we want someone other than your most defensively inept player!

Kyle Okposo is on his way to Edmonton as we speak. Nice doing business with you.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Little is overpaid and on the wrong side of 30. I think if he could be moved for anything of value it would have already been done. So that leaves Roslovic for Ristolainen and Thompson. Yeah I think I'll pass on that.

Roslovic=Thompson. In fact, I’d probably rather have Tage. No say Little gets Risto.

 

[Dan Kelly]

Kyle Okposo is on his way to Edmonton as we speak. Nice doing business with you.

You’re not dealing with Chiarelli anymore!!

 

[Mattilaus]

I've said continuously I think Risto is a good player. But he's being portrayed here as a top-pairing guy, or a guy who can land a good top-six forward like Ehlers or RNH, and I'm just not seeing it.

omg for the 100th time NO HE IS NOT! About the only thing Sabres fans can agree on is that Risto would work much better in a lesser role and NOT a top pairing guy. Stop defending against crap nobody is saying, you are tilting at windmills.

 

[egelband]

The issue with Ristolainen, I suspect, is simply that he's overpaid. No one has cap space and that's not changing for the rest of that contract. And most GMs now won't pay much to take on a gamble.
I'm sure he'd be in high demand at $3m. Maybe the sabres should retain. Probably get a good haul for him.
But I guess that defeats the purpose of unloading the big contract.