Rumor: Sabres trying to trade Ristolainen - Part II

[Dr Quincy]

Risto/Sobotka for Danault/Suzuki

Taking value out of it, if MTL were going to deal that package it would be for a LHD.

 

[Sabreality]

it just seems team depth, role & useage are still lost on many. Risto needs to be used more along the likes of Yandle or Dumba. These guys are near 55% O zone starts compared to Ristos 45%. At just 20 he was being used at 60% D zone starts, 60%! That's ridiculous. People are acting like he's 'trash' along the likes of Luke Schenn or Ceci.

Again, shift his useage & role with a now deeper D group, he's just 24, give him easier minutes and 55% OZS's like many other 'offensive Top 4' guys have played during their careers up to this point. He's going to be fine, whether its in Buffalo or elsewhere.

 

[Chainshot]

The issue with Ristolainen, I suspect, is simply that he's overpaid. No one has cap space and that's not changing for the rest of that contract. And most GMs now won't pay much to take on a gamble.
I'm sure he'd be in high demand at $3m. Maybe the sabres should retain. Probably get a good haul for him.
But I guess that defeats the purpose of unloading the big contract.

Overpaid? Eh, in a league where Esa Lindell and his nearly as terrible metrics and no PP production are signing extensions that are larger than Ristolainen's contract, contract merits are relative.

He's 5th in PP primary assists as a defenseman over the last three seasons. He's 7th in total PP points in that time - even with anemic offense the Sabres have and their relatively pedestrian PP over that time. He has ability there that isn't just being on the unit. Dahlin will certainly eat into his PP contribution time, as will potentially Miller and Pilut. But it's actually something he's good at.

 

[DFC]

it just seems team depth, role & useage are still lost on many. Risto needs to be used more along the likes of Yandle or Dumba. These guys are near 55% O zone starts compared to Ristos 45%. At just 20 he was being used at 60% D zone starts, 60%! That's ridiculous. People are acting like he's 'trash' along the likes of Luke Schenn or Ceci.

Again, shift his useage & role with a now deeper D group, he's just 24, give him easier minutes and 55% OZS's like many other 'offensive Top 4' guys have played during their careers up to this point. He's going to be fine, whether its in Buffalo or elsewhere.

I think everybody understands that. But with that better usage, you can also expect his points to decrease, so, while his big flaw might be masked, his biggest strength will also be somewhat muted.

Role and usage are a big thing, but -41 is just really, really massive. There've been a lot of misused defensemen on a lot of really bad teams, but only one other guy has reached that number in the cap era.

Not many people are saying Risto sucks. But we're saying his value is probably around a 4/5, puck-moving/PP specialist, which doesn't get you the kind of 60ish point player most Sabre fans are looking for here.

 

[Sabreality]

I think everybody understands that. But with that better usage, you can also expect his points to decrease, so, while his big flaw might be masked, his biggest strength will also be somewhat muted.

Role and usage are a big thing, but -41 is just really, really massive. There've been a lot of misused defensemen on a lot of really bad teams, but only one other guy has reached that number in the cap era.

Not many people are saying Risto sucks. But we're saying his value is probably around a 4/5, puck-moving/PP specialist, which doesn't get you the kind of 60ish point player most Sabre fans are looking for here.

I don't understand how getting easier minutes with more offensive zone starts would mute his ability to gain more 5o5 points, that doesn't make much sense to me. He has enough trouble when he starts in his own end and then has to transition up ice to settle in offensively. We've seen that is the big problem based on his advanced stats. Flip his dzs/ozs %, until we see this I'm not sure its fair to speculate one way or another on how his 'stats' will be effected.

 

[sabremike]

I think everybody understands that. But with that better usage, you can also expect his points to decrease, so, while his big flaw might be masked, his biggest strength will also be somewhat muted.

Role and usage are a big thing, but -41 is just really, really massive. There've been a lot of misused defensemen on a lot of really bad teams, but only one other guy has reached that number in the cap era.

Not many people are saying Risto sucks. But we're saying his value is probably around a 4/5, puck-moving/PP specialist, which doesn't get you the kind of 60ish point player most Sabre fans are looking for here.

I honestly don't think people understand just how dreadful this team has been. Over the past 5 years we aren't just a strong contender for worst team in hockey of the past 50 years, we are a strong contender for worst team in all of pro sports of the past 50 years.

 

[Moskau]

Not many people are saying Risto sucks. But we're saying his value is probably around a 4/5, puck-moving/PP specialist, which doesn't get you the kind of 60ish point player most Sabre fans are looking for here.

The funny thing is he's not even a good puck mover as his first pass is non existent and he was terrible on the PP last season. He was a fairly good PP QB the years prior but for whatever reason last season he was terrible at keeping the puck in at the line last season.

Honestly I would be more comfortable saying he does suck than saying he's a #4. He's been a train wreck defensively his entire career, in over his head sure but I have watched just as many 3rd and 4th liners abuse him as I have 1st line players. You don't put up the negative numbers he does by only getting burned by star players. He's not great offensively despite putting up decent points. Dimitri Filipovic described Risto's point totals as empty calorie points and I would agree. He doesn't move the puck quickly, he's not a great passer, he's not a good skater, but he's above average on the PP. There's no quantifiable quality to his game where you can look at and say "that's where his points come from" other than the sheer amount of ice time he gets leading to brute force points.

 

[DFC]

I don't understand how getting easier minutes with more offensive zone starts would mute his ability to gain more 5o5 points, that doesn't make much sense to me. He has enough trouble when he starts in his own end and then has to transition up ice to settle in offensively. We've seen that is the big problem based on his advanced stats. Flip his dzs/ozs %, until we see this I'm not sure its fair to speculate one way or another on how his 'stats' will be effected.

He'll probably get a few more 5v5 points. Maybe. The decreased time will limit the increase, and he's unlikely to be the kind of PP QB he was/is in Buffalo. He's never put up many 5v5 points. He'll get a few more with a better offense, but that'll be balanced by fewer minutes. So he's unlikely to crack 40 on a team with a legit #1D, because the PP points won't be there.

I understand that some people are blowing his negatives out of proportion, but some Sabres fans are pretending they don't exist, and that he's a 40 point Dman in a bad situation. Well, that's sort of true, but it only says the good things while leaving out all of the bad.

 

[Yatzhee]

He'll probably get a few more 5v5 points. Maybe. The decreased time will limit the increase, and he's unlikely to be the kind of PP QB he was/is in Buffalo. He's never put up many 5v5 points. He'll get a few more with a better offense, but that'll be balanced by fewer minutes. So he's unlikely to crack 40 on a team with a legit #1D, because the PP points won't be there.

I understand that some people are blowing his negatives out of proportion, but some Sabres fans are pretending they don't exist, and that he's a 40 point Dman in a bad situation. Well, that's sort of true, but it only says the good things while leaving out all of the bad.

I believe most Sabres fans have acknowledged both his warts as well as his shiny attributes.
The reality is Risto is a very good 3/4 young d man just hitting the first 2 yrs of a normal 23 to 33 yr old d man who is a point producer but does have some serious issues in his own zone which will need a partner to compensate for to some extent.
5.4 Ava for 3 more seasons for that is going to both garner serious interest, which it's reported it has, as well as a high asking price, which it's been reported that is the case.
He won't be on the Sabres opening season roster, imo, and the return will be decent, imo.

 

[Seras]

I mean if he's so good why does Buffalo not even want him? Seems fishy

 

[krutovsdonut]

is there any recent news on this? i went back two pages and it looks like radio silence.

 

[Yatzhee]

I mean if he's so good why does Buffalo not even want him? Seems fishy

Because Buffalo's GM has made moves to shore up the RHD position (Montour, Miller, still have Bogo and some solid young depth) and it's been reported he's also in on Gardiner at LHD.
Those moves put Botterill in position to move Risto for 2C, a position needed when he moved ROR.
The ROR trade has been speculated on to death now. But there was a reason that move was made and why Risto is available.

 

[Aladyyn]

I mean if he's so good why does Buffalo not even want him? Seems fishy

We hope to find a GM who's not as smart as you.

 

[Panthaz89]

So when you have huge negative numbers every year.... and are the worst or near the worst on your team...

is it possible that YOU are a big part of the reason the team isn't any good? And perhaps aren't very good at NHL hockey?

Well of course he has really bad +/- he plays the most TOI on the team by a mile.......more time to get minuses especially on a team that's really bad overall at even strength the only exceptions are standouts like Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart who had respectable +/- despite being on a really bad team too bad Risto also has to play with Sobotka, Thompson, etc on regularity.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

I mean if he's so good why does Buffalo not even want him? Seems fishy

The rumor (from Renaud Lavoie) is that the Risto trade stuff is ”player driven”. Lavoie was careful not to say that Ristolainen requested a trade though.

But to be fair, He’s the only one I’ve seen report this. Everyone else, like Dreger, Friedman, etc. are saying that Buffalo isn’t trying to trade Ristolainen but they are receiving calls on him and are open to moving him if they get the right offer.

With all of the RHD acquired this offseason it does look like the Sabres are setting up to be able to trade Risto. So we will see, I guess.

As a Buffalo fan I hope botterill only trades him if he gets a #2C or a good top 6 winger back. I don’t want a quantity trade. I want s hockey trade, or to just keep Risto. I don’t want to see the ROR mistake repeated again.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

is there any recent news on this? i went back two pages and it looks like radio silence.

No, not that I know of. It’s been pretty quiet.

But the Sabres don’t seem to leak much information anymore, since Botterill was hired.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I don't understand how getting easier minutes with more offensive zone starts would mute his ability to gain more 5o5 points, that doesn't make much sense to me. He has enough trouble when he starts in his own end and then has to transition up ice to settle in offensively. We've seen that is the big problem based on his advanced stats. Flip his dzs/ozs %, until we see this I'm not sure its fair to speculate one way or another on how his 'stats' will be effected.

Zone starts don't have that big of an impact. Many shifts start in the flow of play or on NZ faceoffs.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Well of course he has really bad +/- he plays the most TOI on the team by a mile.......more time to get minuses especially on a team that's really bad overall at even strength the only exceptions are standouts like Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart who had respectable +/- despite being on a really bad team too bad Risto also has to play with Sobotka, Thompson, etc on regularity.

Risto gets outscored badly when he plays with Eichel. Risto gets outscored badly when he plays with the 4th line. At some point one must wonder if it is Risto's fault.

 

[Spazkat]

Anaheim please.

Not for those asking prices. Hes not good enough to be 1st pairing with Hampus, and Risto and Fowler would be a disaster looking for a place to happen.

 

[Dr Quincy]

I don't understand how getting easier minutes with more offensive zone starts would mute his ability to gain more 5o5 points, that doesn't make much sense to me. He has enough trouble when he starts in his own end and then has to transition up ice to settle in offensively. We've seen that is the big problem based on his advanced stats. Flip his dzs/ozs %, until we see this I'm not sure its fair to speculate one way or another on how his 'stats' will be effected.

Let's be clear about a coupe things:

1) Risto does not start 60 or 55 or 50 % of his shifts in the Dzone. That's because 60% of NHL shifts happen on the fly and the zone start stat doesn't track those. So at most he is starting 25% in his own end.

2) Also, as a great study I can point you to said " Another driver is the fact that often a player’s zone start percentage is impacted by their own performance: bad players end up with more defensive zone faceoffs due to their inability to drive possession, which incorrectly inflates their defensive zone start percentages. " Bad players tend to give up possession of the puck no matter where they are starting, and once given up, they tend to let the other team get shots that lead to tie ups and then faceoffs. Risto can start a shift on the fly, then give up a shot that leads to a dzone face off, and that ensuing faceoff is going to be counted as a dzone start.

3) A lot of studies have been done on the impact of zone starts. I won't say they say it's meaningless, but what they do say is that for the vast majority of players it's a pretty minor factor. If you want to give some evidence to why Risto is one of the rare players hurt especially by it, I'll be glad to look it over. And if you want links to several studies about the overrating of zone starts I'll be happy to post them for you.

 

[Mr Positive]

Zone starts and quality of competition don't have to be the total measure of how good a D is, but it shows how the coach used the players. It shows that Risto was used as a shutdown D. There were 6 D on the team with a higher offensive zone starts percent, and he was at the top of quality of competition.

Any stat is flawed, but this is clearly better than something like plus minus. It also gives any team thinking of trading for him some thought that maybe there is an opportunity to get more out of him if he's used differently.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Zone starts and quality of competition don't have to be the total measure of how good a D is, but it shows how the coach used the players. It shows that Risto was used as a shutdown D. There were 6 D on the team with a higher offensive zone starts percent, and he was at the top of quality of competition.

Any stat is flawed, but this is clearly better than something like plus minus. It also gives any team thinking of trading for him some thought that maybe there is an opportunity to get more out of him if he's used differently.

Yup, that's it right there. What Risto's performance in the role he's been used in tells you is he's no prime Zdeno Chara, and you're gonna have a bad time if you use him like he is. It's a far leap from "not an elite shutdown D" to "bottom pairing PP specialist" (as some are claiming Risto is). There's still plenty of reason to believe Risto could succeed in a role between those 2 extremes.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

The funny thing is he's not even a good puck mover as his first pass is non existent and he was terrible on the PP last season. He was a fairly good PP QB the years prior but for whatever reason last season he was terrible at keeping the puck in at the line last season.

Honestly I would be more comfortable saying he does suck than saying he's a #4. He's been a train wreck defensively his entire career, in over his head sure but I have watched just as many 3rd and 4th liners abuse him as I have 1st line players. You don't put up the negative numbers he does by only getting burned by star players. He's not great offensively despite putting up decent points. Dimitri Filipovic described Risto's point totals as empty calorie points and I would agree. He doesn't move the puck quickly, he's not a great passer, he's not a good skater, but he's above average on the PP. There's no quantifiable quality to his game where you can look at and say "that's where his points come from" other than the sheer amount of ice time he gets leading to brute force points.

So what do you see as his strengths since you gave your opinion oh how bad he is? Just curious

 

[UnleashRasmus]

What I love about this thread is it's going on for almost 100 pages of bashing a player who there hasn't even been in more than skeptical rumors. Rasmus Ristolainen is not being traded for a pittance. This isn't a cast off situation. Does he have his flaws, yes. He skates out of the zone with his head down at times. He leaves an outlet pass in the passing lane a bit too long leading to a two on one. However, he's averaged 40 points in almost every season that he's been a Sabre. He's been over-extended and for the first time will be part of a defense where he's not "the only option". Let's put it this way. Ideally he's not even in the top pairing. You're looking at Dahlin with Montour or Miller. He could possibly not be in the second pairing. Which again limits him to 17-19 minutes with time on PP2, and PK1. Where he's not skating up and down playing the ice for 25 plus minutes. He's not a CORSI or advanced stat nerds dream situation. However, in an off season where a nearly broken down Stralman is making north of 4.4M, he's an upgrade. Please stop the bashing, keep it casual and realistic. This petty shit is embarrassing. Similarly to our last 8 years in the league.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Yup, that's it right there. What Risto's performance in the role he's been used in tells you is he's no prime Zdeno Chara, and you're gonna have a bad time if you use him like he is. It's a far leap from "not an elite shutdown D" to "bottom pairing PP specialist" (as some are claiming Risto is). There's still plenty of reason to believe Risto could succeed in a role between those 2 extremes.

*consults charts*

There are only 3 types of NHL defensemen: 1) elite offensive defensemen (guys who either produce like elite offensive defensemen, or, don't, but have good rate stats and thus need an "expanded role"); elite "shutdown" defensemen (no one actually knows what this means, but it's basically some combination of "bad actual offense/good expected goals/good corsi based on shot suppression/lots of blue on the d-zone heat map/plays well on a good team"); and, 3) bottom-pairing PP specialists (guys who are extremely bad, but score on the power play). Literally everyone else is a below-replacement level guy who should be, like, beaten with sticks by an angry mob.

*having said this, Contract Status comes into play, too. For example, Jacob Trouba went from being considered an elite all-around D based on rate stats, to being considered an elite shutdown D because of offense (lack thereof) to being considered, as of a few hours ago, an overpaid albatross who needs to be bought-out and finish his career in the AHL/"he better put on a ring on it so he can get in on that doctor money" in the span of like 2 years. Woo!*

*Then someone will chime in like, "Yes, but this 15-year veteran guy is top-10 in the league in zone-entries denied per 60 over the last 3.5 seasons (not including one season where he was actually bad at that)."

What was I talking about? Ristolainen? Idk, I give up with him. What even is a *consults notes* "defense" "man" anyway?