Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[BFLO]

I'm pretty sure they are done adding D... But i do wonder if a move for established LHD is a slight possibility?

It's a long shot - but something along the lines of :

Samuelsson-Dahlin (top pair)
Power - Clifton/Johnson (pair 2A)
LHD - Johnson/Clifton (pair 2B)

Clearly, two of Jokiharju/Lyubushkin/Stillman would likely need to be moved in this situation.

I think they're done adding D. There were good LD available and they didn't add any.

Going back to the TDL Gavrikov was available, and in FA: Graves, Orlov and Soucy were available. Any one of those 4 would have been a solid pick up, and all of them were signed to reasonable deals.

Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure.

Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure.

 

[SundherDome]

I think they're done adding D. There were good LD available and they didn't add any.

Going back to the TDL Gavrikov was available, and in FA: Graves, Orlov and Soucy were available. Any one of those 4 would have been a solid pick up, and all of them were signed to reasonable deals.

Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure.

Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure.

Our cap structure is geared towards paying our internal players.

 

[TommyDangles]

I think they're done adding D. There were good LD available and they didn't add any.

Going back to the TDL Gavrikov was available, and in FA: Graves, Orlov and Soucy were available. Any one of those 4 would have been a solid pick up, and all of them were signed to reasonable deals.

Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure.

Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure.

Soucy is a bottom pair d man. Why do we want another bottom pair d man lmao?

Orlov signed 7.75M for 2 years with a contender. I can't imagine what he'd want to sign here. Probably close to his original ask of 6 years at 6M+. You can say the same about Gavrikov.

"Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure."

They signed short term deals with contenders to reach a big contract in the upcoming years. I have no idea why you think these same contracts apply to us.

"Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure."

Soucy would be such a redundant add & Graves for 6 years would not work well. I've watched the guy get burned enough to have no interest in him.

We also have no idea whether these guys wanted to sign here. We don't know if we offered these guys a contract.

 

[sabremike]

Got my 11 game All Star Plan yesterday!

 

[joshjull]

That wouldn't make a lot of sense. The thinking behind Dahlin on the left would be to find room for RHD.

What about Power-Samuelsson is inherently desirable? If anything it confuses deployment. Power is a priority Ozone start; Samuelsson is a priority Dzone start.

Why would it confuse deployment?

Power/Joker OZS% was 48%
Sammy/Dahlin was 49%

They tend not to use either for fly starts.

Thats not a thing, if you‘re talking about starts on the fly. NHL players average about 60% of their shift starts on the fly. I can’t imagine any coach not starting players on the fly or making a conscience effort to prevent it as much as possible. It would cause chaos.

Power started 1127 of his 1886 shifts (60%) on the fly. Thats the most OTF shift starts of any Sabre.

 

[joshjull]

So I get where you're going with this, the problem is it's not how Granto uses his players. He's best covering Power's defensive experience by not playing in the Dzone against good players.

Sameulsson is used to cover Buffalo's overall defensive ineptitude by playing in the Dzone against good players. That pairing scuffs Power more than helping him. This will change as Power plays more games, but not at 20 years old.

Thats not how the defense was used.

We didn’t have a matchup pair. Nor was Power kept away from the top players of the opposition. It would’ve been impossible to do so with the amount of minutes he played. Power played as much or more than Sammy against the top players on the opposition. A small sample of that……..

Against the Leafs (Mins against + DZ draws)
*Mathews = Power - 24mins (1 DZ draw)// Sammy - 8mins (2)
*Nylander = Power - 22mins (2) // Sammy - 8mins (2)

Against Tampa
*Stamkos = Power - 28mins (9) // Sammy - 16mins (1)
*Kucherov = Power -20mins (4) // Sammy - 29mins (3)
*Point = Power - 18mins (3) // Sammy - 27mins (4)

Against Boston
*Marchand = Power - 22mins (6) // Sammy - 10mins (1)
*Pasta = Power - 23mins (4) // Sammy - 14mins (6)
*Bergeron = Power - 21mins (6) // Sammy - 9mins (1)

 

[Dubi Doo]

I dont see the issue in trying Power-Dahlin and Samuelsson-Clifford. The season is long, and tinkering with the pairings isn't a big deal.

 

[joshjull]

I dont see the issue in trying Power-Dahlin and Samuelsson-Clifford. The season is long, and tinkering with the pairings isn't a big deal.

Power/Dahlin played together late in games we were losing. It was successful (17 goals for/5 against) because it was a very aggressive deployment (OZS% - 75%) of our best two offensive dmen. It allowed them to attack relentlessly. Thats not a realistic deployment for an entire game.

EDIT: Thats not to say you can’t try it at least in preseason. But I don‘t see them going with that.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Why would it confuse deployment?

Power/Joker OZS% was 48%
Sammy/Dahlin was 49%

Thats not a thing, if you‘re talking about starts on the fly. NHL players average about 60% of their shift starts on the fly. I can’t imagine any coach not starting players on the fly or making a conscience effort to prevent it as much as possible. It would cause chaos.

Power started 1127 of his 1886 shifts (60%) on the fly. Thats the most OTF shift starts of any Sabre.

Granto must be doing something because Samuelsson and Dahlin are ~54% starts on the fly. Boosh and Jokiharju were ~62%. That's almost a 20% difference.

I misread the stat line and attributed Dahlin's to Power. Overall Power was 13.5%/10.9% OZ/DZ Samuelsson 11.9%/13.4%.

But the stats also say Buffalo's two best pairings were Power-Samuelsson and Dahlin-Jokiharju. I'm just unconvinced at this point in his career Power is actually a good two-way defensemen; but he will be.

 

[Djp]

Soucy is a bottom pair d man. Why do we want another bottom pair d man lmao?

Orlov signed 7.75M for 2 years with a contender. I can't imagine what he'd want to sign here. Probably close to his original ask of 6 years at 6M+. You can say the same about Gavrikov.

"Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure."

They signed short term deals with contenders to reach a big contract in the upcoming years. I have no idea why you think these same contracts apply to us.

"Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure."

Soucy would be such a redundant add & Graves for 6 years would not work well. I've watched the guy get burned enough to have no interest in him.

We also have no idea whether these guys wanted to sign here. We don't know if we offered these guys a contract.

orlov is too old to be getting any sort of long contract. Garikov might be looking for a higher contract.

both signed with expected playoff teams.

not giving any of the UFAs 5+ years.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I think they're done adding D. There were good LD available and they didn't add any.

Going back to the TDL Gavrikov was available, and in FA: Graves, Orlov and Soucy were available. Any one of those 4 would have been a solid pick up, and all of them were signed to reasonable deals.

Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure.

Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure.

I did say that I think it's a long shot & i expect they are done.

If you want to talk about the TDL - what about Chychrun? He's nothing like the two guys we ended up acquiring & we obviously had strong interest in acquiring him.

The one intriguing guy out there who fits this mould & is still very much available is Hanifin. There's been some smoke there & he has links with Granato.

When discussing Chychrun - the Tampa model came up there with how they historically had a strong guy on each pair during their Cup runs.

That could be replicated by acquiring Hanifin, for example:

 

[Matt Ress]

Granto must be doing something because Samuelsson and Dahlin are ~54% starts on the fly. Boosh and Jokiharju were ~62%. That's almost a 20% difference.

I misread the stat line and attributed Dahlin's to Power. Overall Power was 13.5%/10.9% OZ/DZ Samuelsson 11.9%/13.4%.

But the stats also say Buffalo's two best pairings were Power-Samuelsson and Dahlin-Jokiharju. I'm just unconvinced at this point in his career Power is actually a good two-way defensemen; but he will be.

Power really wasn't in his rookie year but he did show some flashes. The entire team could pay more attention to the defensive side and they will. As for Power, ice time will bring more consistency and predictability to his game. Maybe having a better partner as well.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

I did say that I think it's a long shot & i expect they are done.

If you want to talk about the TDL - what about Chychrun? He's nothing like the two guys we ended up acquiring & we obviously had strong interest in acquiring him.

The one intriguing guy out there who fits this mould & is still very much available is Hanifin. There's been some smoke there & he has links with Granato.

When discussing Chychrun - the Tampa model came up there with how they historically had a strong guy on each pair during their Cup runs.

That could be replicated by acquiring Hanifin, for example:

You are right but Hanifin is just the wrong guy to target….again he’s from the Boston area….he’ll never accept being a Zbuffalo guy.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

You are right but Hanifin is just the wrong guy to target….again he’s from the Boston area….he’ll never accept being a Zbuffalo guy.

You might care about what city or country players were born in - but i don't.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

You might care about what city or country players were born in - but i don't.

30+ teams, players have a choice and they might care which city or country they play in.

Hanifin is not gonna come cheap, and with his known friendship with Eichel….move on to someone else.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

30+ teams, players have a choice and they might care which city or country they play in.

Hanifin is not gonna come cheap, and with his known friendship with Eichel….move on to someone else.

I think basing you're entire arguement purely on which city a player was born in is weak AF.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Granto must be doing something because Samuelsson and Dahlin are ~54% starts on the fly. Boosh and Jokiharju were ~62%. That's almost a 20% difference.

I misread the stat line and attributed Dahlin's to Power. Overall Power was 13.5%/10.9% OZ/DZ Samuelsson 11.9%/13.4%.

But the stats also say Buffalo's two best pairings were Power-Samuelsson and Dahlin-Jokiharju. I'm just unconvinced at this point in his career Power is actually a good two-way defensemen; but he will be.

8% doesnt almost equal 20%

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

8% doesnt almost equal 20%

It's the proportional change, not the raw delta. Going from a 10% sh% to a 14% sh% is a 40% increase.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

It's the proportional change, not the raw delta. Going from a 10% sh% to a 14% sh% is a 40% increase.

Ah yes when you want the stats to say whatever you want just display them differently.

If both players average 30 shifts a game the difference in the 2 values is about 3 shifts per game, and Id assume Dahlin starts the period… at a face off. Which would account for almost every shift difference between the 2.

 

[alehman42]

Ah yes when you want the stats to say whatever you want just display them differently.

He's not wrong, and I don't get the sense there was any attempt to mislead.

People have a tendency to be lazy/imprecise when talking about changes in percentages. They can either be talking about the raw percentage point change, or the proportional change (percentage of a percentage), and it's not always obvious which.

This seems to me like an obvious miscommunication, not any sort of deceptive framing.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

He's not wrong, and I don't get the sense there was any attempt to mislead.

People have a tendency to be lazy/imprecise when talking about changes in percentages. They can either be talking about the raw percentage point change, or the proportional change (percentage of a percentage), and it's not always obvious which.

This seems to me like an obvious miscommunication, not any sort of deceptive framing.

If it’s not intentionally deceptive then it’s unintentionally deceptive. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. And saying there’s almost a 20% difference without context falls under that saying.

 

[BFLO]

Soucy is a bottom pair d man. Why do we want another bottom pair d man lmao?

Orlov signed 7.75M for 2 years with a contender. I can't imagine what he'd want to sign here. Probably close to his original ask of 6 years at 6M+. You can say the same about Gavrikov.

"Gavrikov and Orlov were high AAV, but short term, which would have worked for our cap structure."

They signed short term deals with contenders to reach a big contract in the upcoming years. I have no idea why you think these same contracts apply to us.

"Graves and Soucy Lower AVV, longer term, would also have worked with our cap structure."

Soucy would be such a redundant add & Graves for 6 years would not work well. I've watched the guy get burned enough to have no interest in him.

We also have no idea whether these guys wanted to sign here. We don't know if we offered these guys a contract.

I think Gavrikov or Orlov could have been signed here on 2 year deals, but obviously for higher cash than they got on their contenders. I’d be shocked if we even made an offer to Orlov.

Soucy and Graves are left handed versions of Clifton, but with size. Bottom pairing guys, with maybe middle pairing upside. Who’s our bottom pairing LD? Bryson? Stillman? One of the excess bottom pairing RD?

 

[Gras]

I think Gavrikov or Orlov could have been signed here on 2 year deals, but obviously for higher cash than they got on their contenders. I’d be shocked if we even made an offer to Orlov.

Soucy and Graves are left handed versions of Clifton, but with size. Bottom pairing guys, with maybe middle pairing upside. Who’s our bottom pairing LD? Bryson? Stillman? One of the excess bottom pairing RD?

Bryson is destined for Roch

 

[Fjordy]

I think Gavrikov or Orlov could have been signed here on 2 year deals, but obviously for higher cash than they got on their contenders. I’d be shocked if we even made an offer to Orlov.

Soucy and Graves are left handed versions of Clifton, but with size. Bottom pairing guys, with maybe middle pairing upside. Who’s our bottom pairing LD? Bryson? Stillman? One of the excess bottom pairing RD?

Graves played in Colorado and New Jersey in the top 4, this is not like Clifton and Soucy, I think he is a legit top 4 D. Clifton and Soucy are wild cards for the top 4, maybe they can be good in this role, maybe no.

 

[Jacob582]

I think Gavrikov or Orlov could have been signed here on 2 year deals, but obviously for higher cash than they got on their contenders. I’d be shocked if we even made an offer to Orlov.

Soucy and Graves are left handed versions of Clifton, but with size. Bottom pairing guys, with maybe middle pairing upside. Who’s our bottom pairing LD? Bryson? Stillman? One of the excess bottom pairing RD?

Before free agency I was wondering if they could land Orlov for 2 years. I was thinking it would take between 7.75M (I have an aversion to 8M - Hall!) To 9M.

What if they play Dahlin on the left side?