TBN: Sabres Mailbag: Will Jason Botterill make a significant trade?

[OkimLom]

I think this is a great point. I couldn't find it just now, but a few weeks ago read an article that painted Miller as the second most skilled defensemen on the Sabres after Dahlin, but noted he had been fighting Ralph's system a bit and thus not getting playing time. That's on both the coach and the player. Last night against Vegas you could see the good Miller on display quite a bit. On multiple occasions instead of passing the puck from the end line he very quickly skated hard up ice an looked for the outlet pass along the way. The defense often tried to cover the pass lanes and left him alone to skate right through the neutral zone and even a couple of times right into the offensive zone. That ability to skate the puck out of the zone instead of stand still passing it is one of the reasons they traded for him. Now whether that fits with the rest of our defensive core at the moment is another thing, but the skill is there with Miller if he is put in the right role with the right line mate…..which to me is a third pairing with a heavy defensive partner......Borgan?

I do think it also falls on the GM as well with the judgement if he's a good fit for the team they are trying to construct here. It's one thing to get talent here, but it's a whole matter if they fit or not. That is on the GM. The GM needs to be able evaluate that.

I don't think Miller is really fitting in here, because on previous teams, there was a better forward supporting system for him to rely upon for transitioning the puck. Skating the puck out like your Joker, Dahlin, Montours, are capable of isn't a strength of his. With how our team is, our forwards, though better than years past, are still terrible at the supporting the defense with breakouts.

 

[OkimLom]

1. Joker has not regressed
2. McCabe started the season on fire before regressing. He has not been a ‘wreck ALL season’
3. Ristolainen is playing sub 25 minutes for the first time in forever with this 7D rotation thing not many coaches run, and is unsurprisingly to many looking great because of it. You say this is a regression? lol
4. Montour has been stuffed behind Jokiharju’s ascension. Not ‘lost’. That’s Miller, who admittedly struggles with not having a consistent partner
5. Dahlin had the *gasp* sophomore slump. Is that relevant to... anything?

Thank you, try again

1. Based on where he was earlier in the year, yeah he has taken a step back.
2. Nope, McCabe has been a train-wreck based on what a competent defenseman looks like, not based on what he usually looks like normally.
3. No, it's getting back to a level when he played his best. He's still lost in his own zone. His play in 1 on 1 scenarios has improved.
4. What does "Montour being stuffed behind Joker's ascension" mean? And how does it give him a pass on his terrible play? And now, why does Miller not have a consistent partner again?
5. Sophomore slump is an excuse for poor play not a REASON, and means nothing. His rookie year, defensively was highly overrated by people here because of his offensive contributions. Up to his injury he was playing worse than last year.

 

[Aladyyn]

Left...............…..Right
Dahlin...............Joker
McCabe.........….Montour
Pilut............……Risto
Gilmore.........… Miller
..................….....Bogo
.....................…..Borgan

Everyone wants us to trade our excess RHD for top six forward (preferably 2C) help.......me too! However, we also have a sizable hole and fit issues at left defense. Past Dahlin we have 2 potential third pairing role defensemen in McCabe and Pilut, plus a solid AHL/NHL depth defenseman. I feel we are lacking a legit left handed defenseman in our top two pairing for the long term, and do not see that player coming up in our system right now. Bogo's contract is untradable. So if the opportunity arises to trade Risto or Miller plus a pick or other player to get a top two pairing LHD with years of team control, then I would pull the triger on that as well.

Pilut is a top 4 defenseman

 

[sabrebuild]

He's a third pair D on a good team - at worst. At the time of trade he was likely a top 4 lock for the Sabres.

He is signed to a reasonable contract with perfect term.

The pick is an extra year into the future & probably a late one.

It was great value.

Everyone except the strongest Botts detractors thought so at the time.

How can you reasonably say that he is a third pair guy on a good team, when he is getting regularly healthy scratched on a bad team?

Do you think Krueger is making bad decisions, or do you think that we have just too much talent?

It doesn't square to me.

 

[Icicle]

1. Based on where he was earlier in the year, yeah he has taken a step back.
2. Nope, McCabe has been a train-wreck based on what a competent defenseman looks like, not based on what he usually looks like normally.
3. No, it's getting back to a level when he played his best. He's still lost in his own zone. His play in 1 on 1 scenarios has improved.
4. What does "Montour being stuffed behind Joker's ascension" mean? And how does it give him a pass on his terrible play? And now, why does Miller not have a consistent partner again?
5. Sophomore slump is an excuse for poor play not a REASON, and means nothing. His rookie year, defensively was highly overrated by people here because of his offensive contributions. Up to his injury he was playing worse than last year.

wrong

 

[OkimLom]

wrong

insightful.

 

[Aladyyn]

How can you reasonably say that he is a third pair guy on a good team, when he is getting regularly healthy scratched on a bad team?

Do you think Krueger is making bad decisions, or do you think that we have just too much talent?

It doesn't square to me.

He was a strong third pair guy on multiple good teams. Sometimes things just don't work out.

 

[Icicle]

How can you reasonably say that he is a third pair guy on a good team, when he is getting regularly healthy scratched on a bad team?

Do you think Krueger is making bad decisions, or do you think that we have just too much talent?

It doesn't square to me.

It's been openly discussed if you have been paying attention. He doesn't do well with all the changing of partners night to night/shift to shift. He struggles without the consistency, which is why he's found himself the odd-man out as Krueger has been running the 7D on rotation system.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think it's very important to put the Miller trade in context -- we needed an RHD as we only had a kvetching Risto, Montour and a broken Bogosian. Borgen may or may not have been ready. Botts identified what he thought was a solid deal and made it. Yeah, maybe a little pricey at the time.......but a 3rd pairing RHD under term for a 2nd rounder? Not a terrible overpayment for a guy who should have anchored PP2 and played a decent enough 15-17 min per game.

But THEN the Nylander/Jokiharju deal came across his desk. It's a deal that had to be made. And the deal was probably made with the thinking that he'd spend some time in Rochester.


Annnnnnnnd then Joki proved to be an actual, honest-to-god NHL Defenseman and suddenly we've got a logjam. My gut feeling is that if the Nylander/Joki deal happens first.......the Miller deal doesn't happen at all. And I cannot blame him for not doing Nylander for Jokiharju first because I think literally the only GM in the league that would do that deal is one that had a particular and keen interest in acquiring Nylander.......which I feel like was only Stan Bowman.

Two things,

First, I don't think anyone should look at the RHd position in the summer and think, oh man, huge position of need. You just spenta first and our best defensive prospect for an adult top 4 defenseman. So what if Risto is kvetching. Much like O'Reilly, he had and has no leverage to really be a problem and no history of absurd acting out. Whats he gonna do, not get paid for two plus years?

So before the Miller trade, you two real deal rhd. Which, in all seriousness, made it the strongest position on the team. Center obviously has an enormous hole, right wing is Reinhart and dump. Left wing was Skinner and hope with Olofsson, and the goalies were ehh. And LHD was Dahlin and Mcape and scandella, oof. So I don't think it's hyperbole to say adding Miller to rhd was the least needed move on the roster.

Second, I think most who complain about Miller trade do so in the context of why not Haula? I know @joshjull has been beating that drum for awhile.

Not many that I see thought the pure value of the trade was bad by any means. It's more of a context issue.

Personally, I think I was on a forced vacation for 6 months when this trade happened, but I thought it was a decent pickup, assuming that a Risto trade was imminent as many expected. Without a Risto trade, that move becomes pretty luxorious when there were bigger needs.

To me Joker for Nylander is something you should always do. But then you don't get a pass for not responding to the new circumstances.

 

[sabrebuild]

He was a strong third pair guy on multiple good teams. Sometimes things just don't work out.

Is that the one year on Vegas golden season? Because otherwise he doesn't have a single full nhl season and his second year in vegas, well that deemed him expendable.

I'm not really arguing regarding him, I barely watched him before the Sabres, and I think he is 50/50 here most games.

I'm just not sure he has proven to be that guy over his career.

 

[sabrebuild]

It's been openly discussed if you have been paying attention. He doesn't do well with all the changing of partners night to night/shift to shift. He struggles without the consistency, which is why he's found himself the odd-man out as Krueger has been running the 7D on rotation system.

Settle down child. I'm well aware of those excuses. I don't find them particularly compelling if I'm to believe my third pair d can only be decent if given the perfect situation.

As it is now, he consistently gets outplayed by a kid, a trade request cancer as you would put it and another similar aged player coming off a broken hand.

It's just not a ringing endorsement of his ability as a guaranteed top 6 guy.

Have a nice day.

 

[Aladyyn]

Is that the one year on Vegas golden season? Because otherwise he doesn't have a single full nhl season and his second year in vegas, well that deemed him expendable.

I'm not really arguing regarding him, I barely watched him before the Sabres, and I think he is 50/50 here most games.

I'm just not sure he has proven to be that guy over his career.

He was already an analytics darling in Boston.

Either way he's simply a terrible fit with what Krueger is trying to do. Montour is in a similar boat imo.

 

[sabrebuild]

He was already an analytics darling in Boston.

Either way he's simply a terrible fit with what Krueger is trying to do. Montour is in a similar boat imo.

Does analytics darling in limited games equate to definitely a good player on a good team? Idk.

I'm not anti fancy stats in the slightest. All I'm saying is that is an awfully light resume to be pronouncing he is a lockdown good third pair guy.

Forget the idea of whether or not a gm shoukd have a clue if his player acquisitions fit with his coach acquisition.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

when you’re as bad as Colin Miller, you’re a 3rd pair on all teams. The only difference is in good teams, his liabilities can be masked. Any Sabres fan watching should see that by now.

As has been mentioned he had already played an important role on a good team.

People fell for charts and metrics they didn’t fully comprehend (when it comes to Miller offseason love fest)

Were these the same type of charts that told the enlightened that Risto was garbage & should have been traded for nothing?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Agreed, we were all ready to ship out Ristolainen, but that trade never materialized. We are a better team with Jokiharju and Risto, which means one of Miller or Montour need to go. Botts would need to take a loss on moving either one, but despite his MBA, he has not shown an ability to overcome the sunk cost fallacy.

He's going to have to move one of them - I'm not even sure he is going to take a huge loss though - especially on Miller.

But you have to wait until the offseason to do it... & it's clear many people here don't have that kind of patience.

 

[joshjull]

I think it's very important to put the Miller trade in context -- we needed an RHD as we only had a kvetching Risto, Montour and a broken Bogosian. Borgen may or may not have been ready. Botts identified what he thought was a solid deal and made it. Yeah, maybe a little pricey at the time.......but a 3rd pairing RHD under term for a 2nd rounder? Not a terrible overpayment for a guy who should have anchored PP2 and played a decent enough 15-17 min per game.

But THEN the Nylander/Jokiharju deal came across his desk. It's a deal that had to be made. And the deal was probably made with the thinking that he'd spend some time in Rochester.


Annnnnnnnd then Joki proved to be an actual, honest-to-god NHL Defenseman and suddenly we've got a logjam. My gut feeling is that if the Nylander/Joki deal happens first.......the Miller deal doesn't happen at all. And I cannot blame him for not doing Nylander for Jokiharju first because I think literally the only GM in the league that would do that deal is one that had a particular and keen interest in acquiring Nylander.......which I feel like was only Stan Bowman.

I agree it’s important to put things in context. But I don’t think its accurate to say adding a RHD was a need at the start of the offseason.

We had 6 RHD in the organization to start the offseason; Risto, Montour, Bogo, Borgen, Nelson and Fitzgerald. As well as a 7th option in Dahlin who played great on the right side in his last season in the SHL.

Its not about that group being the perfect answer or even arguing they are all better options than Miller. Its that they provide more than adequate in house solutions to ride out Oct/Nov after a potential Risto trade while waiting for Pilut/Bogo to return.

My biggest frustration/bafflement over the Miller trade being the first one out of the box isn’t about the value. I have no problem with what we paid. Its the fact that it lead to nothing this past offseason. If we acquired him then went on to improve the forwards by trading other dmen/prospects. Then I could say, ok that makes sense.

Adding two team controlled dmen in Miller (3yrs left) and Joker (20yr old) actually opened up the trade possibilities beyond Risto with the dmen. It put prospects in play as well. After July 9th (Joker trade) we had a ton of possibilities and ended up doing absolutely nothing with the dmen. Botts handicapped himself carrying this group of dmen into the season. Now the cap is a bigger problem and makes trades tougher.


Our priority needs to start the offseason were forward scoring help and 2nd line center. We had some possibilities in house for scoring but not enough and needed to add more. But we had zero options in house to fill the 2nd line center role. Adding someone to fill it was our greatest need. I didn’t expect a 2nd line center to get added. But there were a few 2/3 vet centers that could have been placeholders for this year. We had decent ammunition with that plethora of dmen to make something happen and we did nothing.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I’m well aware of the sequencing of events this past offseason. I also shared the opinion expressed in the bolded at the time of trade and defended it. But over time I changed my mind and eventually came to the conclusion I was wrong to defend the move. I came to view the Miller trade as a baffling/frustrating first move this past offseason for a few reasons........


1) Botts kicking off the offseason saying the defensive injuries (Bogo/Pilut) wouldn’t prevent him from making moves. That he wouldn’t be afraid to use our youth (Bryson /Borgen/Fitzgerald) to ride out Oct/early Nov. Then his first move of the offseason (Miller trade) contradicts those statements. It comes across as timid or at the very least pretty conservative.

I thought that comment was strange & didn't believe it.

Pilut is unproven (also clearly plays the LH side) & Bogo is a proven net negative.

That D group needed work even assuming Risto was staying. Even with Risto around there was a clear roster opening available imo.

He had the opportunity to get Miller for good value - he took it. It was a smart move which hasn't worked in hindsight for reasons already mentioned.

2) Miller didn’t fill any need we had coming into the offseason. That was the case even before we acquired Joker with us already having 6 RHD in the fold; Risto, Montour, Bogo, Borgen, Nelson and Fitzgerald.** Even if your argument is he was acquired to mitigate the loss of Risto. He’s a 3rd pairing offensive RHD who wasn’t very effective on the PP. he would have done very little to mitigate the loss of Risto.

As said above - I believe only 2 of those guys are proven top 6 players:

Bogo sucks, is hugely injury prone & will be off the team after this year.
Nelson is a decent 7/8 at best - you don't want him in the top 6.
Borg/Fitz are very inexperienced with no indication they are ready for regular NHL minutes.

I totally agree that Miller was not capable of replacing Risto. No player capable of replacing Risto was/is likely to be available. This is the reason some of us were so vehemently against trading him short of a massive overpayment.

So you trade fir him with the intention of playing him on a third pair behind Risto/Montour, with the possibility of him having a bigger role should Risto leave.

3) He acquires Joker giving us 8 RHD options and STILL doesn’t move any NHL dmen or prospects to improve our forward group. Season starts and he makes his task even harder with rosters settled and the cap a much bigger issue. He didn’t need to trade Risto to improve the forwards. He had plenty of options to move to chip away at forward help

** Think of the glaring needs we had up front, particularly a 2/3 center to placehold as the 2nd line center. Regardless of how good or bad you think those 6 RHD are. Thats 6 more options than we had for 2nd line center entering the offseason.

The Joker trade was made when many teams had already started to cut their cloth as you describe. Most of the UFAs were already signed by that point. Teams were already set with the cap. It takes two to trade...

The notion that Botts just kicks back & puts his feet up after making a trade like this is so unbelievably stupid. Its not EA sports where you can keep trying to force a trade through with the CPU until something works...

(last comment targeted at the general 'Botts suxxx' crowd & not you personally Josh).

You're totally right about the 2C issue & it's obviously Botts one major failing thus far. Maybe be mad that he signed Vesey or that he signed Skinner for too much money... Hell - be mad that three consecutive coaches haven't played Reinhart at C if you want.

It is what it is at this point imo. He clearly knows its an issue & Johansson was at least something of a patchwork fix there...

I'm ready to judge him on the 2C issue this summer. With so much cap coming off the books it's clear there's a plan there. If it still isn't resolved this is the time for heavy criticism.

 

[Jame]

As has been mentioned he had already played an important role on a good team.

He was an ozone deployed and sheltered defensemen who had to be babysat by a defensive dman.

He only played an important role if all roles are important

This is all pointless... you've watched Miller play by now right? He's not good. His value is derived from a point shot that we haven't be able to unlock. Other than that, I guess it's nice that he skates well... even though his low hockey IQ reduces the value of that skill.

Were these the same type of charts that told the enlightened that Risto was garbage & should have been traded for nothing?

Yes. They can be wrong in both directions (Defining Risto as trash and Miller as great)

 

[Jame]

He was already an analytics darling in Boston.

Either way he's simply a terrible fit with what Krueger is trying to do. Montour is in a similar boat imo.

He was an analytics darling in Boston, and they got rid of him in expansion
He was an analytics darling in Vegas, and became a regular scratch their too
He was... garbage in Buffalo, and became an immediate scratch here

 

[Jame]

He had the opportunity to get Miller for good value - he took it. It was a smart move which hasn't worked in hindsight for reasons already mentioned.

You keep repeating that he got Miller for good value...

How is acquiring the Vesey of the blueline,but with term and for a much higher cost, equating to good value in your mind?

 

[Bendium]

Pilut is a top 4 defenseman

He really is not in the NHL. He is a great third pair situational defensemen depending on what your top two pairs look like and what you need out of your role defensemen. Hes a puck moving offensive d-man with solid positioning. He is too small and gets pushed around to much to be a consistent top 4 dman eating 20+ minutes a night.

 

[brian_griffin]

He prioritized getting a bottom pairing RHD and a useless winger in Vesey instead of a capable 2nd line center. That alone is moronic. Let's not defend this idiot. Haula went for scraps and would have filled a bigger hole than Miller did. I didn't hate the Miller trade at the time because I assumed there'd be another corresponding move that he had already lined up. Apparently that was too much multitasking for Jason to pull off.
I expect him to make some significant moves this offseason and to put it kindly I'll just say I'm not optimistic they'll be good moves for the future of this team.

This is the key point, and the one I believe @joshjull is also making (and a couple others).

Ignore return value. Ignore whether underlying metrics were/are flawed. The fundamental issue is priorities.

Here's a (true) analogy: I've had a classic Mustang in my garage for 2 years I want to restore, even though I'm not a motorhead. It was my (now deceased) brother's, and I want to do it for personal reasons. I walk past that car a couple times a day. I know I either need to restore it, or get rid of it. I've done a little bit over the past couple years, but haven't really attacked it like a project, with a task list and timeline, and dedicated effort. Instead, when I've had spare time beyond house / yard maintenance, I'm doing piddly stuff like using up my scrap lumber to build birdhouses, planting and tending my garden instead of buying veggies at the store, etc.

Botterill is building birdhouses (Vesey, Miller, Sheary, etc.) and hoping his garden produces enough to make it worthwhile (Thompson, Mittelstadt, etc.) instead of restoring the Mustang (filling the 2C hole he created from the ROR trade).

No 2C's allegedly available? Bring in as many 3Cs as possible, then lather, rinse, repeat. Sheary, Vesey, Wilson, aren't going to fix the center hole. They are wings or a 4th liner / tweener.

Johikaru? Botterill had a neighbor stop by and give him a 42" John Deere with 20 hours on it in trade for an old-time reel-type craftsman manual push mower sitting unused in the shed behind a pile of scrap potting containers.

 

[Aladyyn]

He really is not in the NHL. He is a great third pair situational defensemen depending on what your top two pairs look like and what you need out of your role defensemen. Hes a puck moving offensive d-man with solid positioning. He is too small and gets pushed around to much to be a consistent top 4 dman eating 20+ minutes a night.

The fact that you called him an offensive defenseman shows how wrong you are in your assesment.

 

[joshjull]

In hindsight the Miller acquisition has not worked, but at the time:
- Risto requested a trade
- Bogo just underwent surgery
- We hadn't traded for Joker yet

Assuming a Risto trade happened, our RHD depth chart to open the season was
1) Montour
2) Borgen
3) Nelson

I'm by no means a Miller fan, I was one of the few pumping the breaks in what was overwhelming fan excitement. However, acquiring someone with good metrics to see if he could excel in a bigger role is a move that made sense at the time.

How many times have they assumed a young guy can step into a role or take a step forward, then when he doesn't we're stuck with a huge hole in our roster and everyone is flamethrowing the organization. This time we took multiple swings and got more hits than anticipated. The roster imbalance is frustrating, but I'm angrier that he wasn't able to move Risto or Bogo to solve the logjam at defense and cap issues.

I think yourself, @Rowley Birkin and others who have quoted me are missing the point being made. Think about the bigger picture. Its a question of priorities and timing.

We came into the offseason with a huge need to acquire a vet 2/3 center to hold the fort as 2nd line center and also needed to add forward scoring help. There were a couple options available, including on the team we got Miller from. Instead of trying to address those immediate needs we traded to address a potential one. There was no pressing need to do so on June 28th at the very beginning of the offseason. It could have been addressed later in the offseason, assuming it even needed to be.


I agree acquiring someone with good metrics to see if he could excel in a bigger role is generally a good move. But that doesn’t hold much weight as a defense of the trade if the corresponding moves to give Miller that bigger role never happened.

Botts dithering all offseason with the dmen leads to a logjam, trade demands and still needing to address the biggest needs we started the offseason with. I’m hardly a Botts hater and really hope he makes me eat crow by the trade deadline (not holding my breath). But he really needs to be taken to task for not moving dmen for forward help during the offseason.

The weird thing is the additions of Miller with 3 years of team control and Joker with even more opened up more possibilities for Botts. He could have entertained moving young dmen and/or defensive prospects to get forward help. Risto didn’t need to be the focus. Yet he did absolutely nothing with the plethora of dmen to help his forward group in the offseason.

 

[Icicle]

Do you all forget the multiple reports of Botterill offering UFA centers contracts and they all left money on the table to not player in Buffalo?