Sabres Expansion Draft Protection Discussion (Skinner waives NMC for Draft)

[Jim Bob]

Risto, Bjork and a 3rd to Seattle for them to take Okposo in the ED.

Too much, too little? I can see this being a positive for both organizations.

I don't think Seattle wants anything to do with Risto or Okposo. And Bjork and a 3rd is nowhere near enough to get Seattle to take on over $11M in cap hits for Risto and Okposo.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

yes, Asplund has more value than Girgensons right now, but that has more to do with the fact Girgensons is injured, not because of his contract. When it comes to the open market, if both guys were healthy, I'd wager pretty heavily that Girgensons would be valued higher for most clubs, despite having the higher cap hit, due to the data that Girgensons has over the years. Asplund would have more value than Girgensons only for teams tightly against the cap, and if they didn't have any prospects that were on the level of Asplund. I like Asplund, a lot, but if I'm a team, I'm favoring Girgensons mainly because I know what I'm getting with him, and 2.2 million for the player that Girgensons is, is fair value. Asplund is as close to being an unknown as possible. I would be better off sticking with one of my prospects.

If Asplund was to move to another team, I'd be thinking he would be a sweetener to the package more than a focused piece.

For starters, the injury matters. You never know how a player will come back. But at $2.2 M per season, there are lots of players as good as Girgensons out there for $500,000 to $750,000 and when it comes to 3rd line/4th lines players, that matters. Overpaid contract in last year's market from Day One. Only the Sabres understood it. He wouldn't have got contracts similar but Pegulas are great negotiators. We know that.

Terry and Kim Pegula at the yacht dealership:
Salesman: This a great yacht, luxury. It's $100 million but I can give it you for $95 million.
Terry and Kim: We are worried about another buyer, we will give you $110 million to do the deal today.

 

[Jim Bob]

Duhatschek

Buffalo Sabres

The pick: Colin Miller

Jeff Skinner poses the biggest question mark here. He has full no-move protection and is wildly overpriced at $9 million a year on a contract that doesn’t expire until 2027 and the Sabres would heavily have to incentivize Seattle to take him, likely by eating half the value of the contract just for starters and probably having to throw in additional sweeteners to make it worthwhile. The only reason Seattle would do it is 1. They’ll have the cap space, and 2. Two of Skinner’s biggest supporters are currently in the Seattle front office. Francis, who knew Skinner from his Carolina days and assistant GM Jason Botterill, who signed him to that contract extension in the first place when Botterill was running Buffalo. But Seattle might just decide that it’s more of a commitment than they want to make and opt for an easier choice, Colin Miller, who is priced right at $3.875 million on a contract that expires in 2022 and thus, could likely make a great trade-deadline acquisition for someone next year. Miller also has the benefit of experience — he was a useful player on Vegas’ expansion team. The other option would be the 24-year-old Will Borgen, if they lean for a younger, cheaper option.
Ryan S. Clark

Buffalo Sabres
The pick: Colin Miller
It goes back to what was just said: Colin Miller has value. If the Kraken are a playoff team, then, they already have a top-four defenseman on the roster. If not? They could hypothetically trade Miller, who would be a pending UFA, for assets.

Here are the goalie picks:

Duhatschek:

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Matiss Kivlenieks	Blue Jackets
Braden Holtby	Canucks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan S. Clark

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Jake Allen	Canadiens
Chris Driedger	Panthers

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Fjordy]

I don't know why Seattle needs Colin Miller. He's not very good and they will have much better options for this position. They would probably be more interested in guys like Bjork, Borgen or Asplund.

 

[Rastin]

It really depends on what they're looking at. They do have to get to the cap floor so they'll have to take some guys with salary to get there. It's one of the reasons I think that moving Risto, Bjork and a 3rd to Seattle for them to take Okposo could make some sense. Risto is only one year and Okposo only 2. This gives them some salary and extra assets to boot, allowing them to focus on collecting younger assets from the other teams. Plus, Botts was a big fan of both players while he was here.

I don't know why Seattle needs Colin Miller. He's not very good and they will have much better options for this position. They would probably be more interested in guys like Bjork, Borgen or Asplund.

 

[OkimLom]

For starters, the injury matters. You never know how a player will come back. But at $2.2 M per season, there are lots of players as good as Girgensons out there for $500,000 to $750,000 and when it comes to 3rd line/4th lines players, that matters. Overpaid contract in last year's market from Day One. Only the Sabres understood it. He wouldn't have got contracts similar but Pegulas are great negotiators. We know that.

Terry and Kim Pegula at the yacht dealership:
Salesman: This a great yacht, luxury. It's $100 million but I can give it you for $95 million.
Terry and Kim: We are worried about another buyer, we will give you $110 million to do the deal today.

First, unless you have evidence that the Pegulas were involved in the negotiations, stop crediting/blaming them.

Second, I have already said Asplund is valued higher now. And yes the injury matters.

Girgensons is an unknown, whether that contract is overpaid or not, at the very most. Seeing how neutered the rest of the team was under Ralph, and the gap of difference in play from the team when they are just allowed to play hockey under Granato, I'd wager to bet that we would be seeing a guy playing at his 15/15 mark he had earlier in his career when you take the reigns off of him and allowed him to just play.

When you have a team that is paying multiple $9+ million dollar/yr contracts then, yes, those 500-750k guys come in handy to help with the cap situation. When you are a brand new team, that will be building a team, and probably looking at $6-$7 million/yr contracts players at the most, you can be more flexible on value of contracts. Add in the absolute stealing and circumstance of how well Vegas did, I'm sure teams will be a little more careful "helping" another expansion team.

 

[explore]

Here are the goalie picks:

Duhatschek:

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Matiss Kivlenieks	Blue Jackets
Braden Holtby	Canucks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan S. Clark

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Jake Allen	Canadiens
Chris Driedger	Panthers

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Read the article this morning and saw both writers thinking Seattle would take Colin Miller and was very ok with that. The second writer did consider that Borgen might be the choice, but I personally don't think he's shown enough for Seattle to take him

 

[OkimLom]

I don't know why Seattle needs Colin Miller. He's not very good and they will have much better options for this position. They would probably be more interested in guys like Bjork, Borgen or Asplund.

It's not that they NEED Miller. It's that they could take him and shore up a #4-#5 spot on the team (even better if Botts and Francis think he's a #3). Miller was fine in Vegas, and Boston. There are plenty of GMs in the league that fall in love with certain guys that they probably shouldn't. Guys like Bjork, you could find on any team, Borgen, didn't seem Botterill was too much of a fan of his, and Asplund, outside of this year, was a prospect on the verge of getting lost in the depth chart. In a 21 game sample size, it's tough to gauge how he would be looked at.

 

[Zman5778]

I don't know why Seattle needs Colin Miller. He's not very good and they will have much better options for this position. They would probably be more interested in guys like Bjork, Borgen or Asplund.

Miller's a legit NHL defenseman with a deal that expires after 2022 -- he's not so good as to block young players, but he's not so bad as to be unplayable. He could play the first half of the season while Seattle figures out what they might have in younger Dmen.......and then unload him to a playoff contender for a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He has a history of performing well on good teams, so the Miller selection for them makes a ton of sense.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Here are the goalie picks:

Duhatschek:

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Matiss Kivlenieks	Blue Jackets
Braden Holtby	Canucks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan S. Clark

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Jake Allen	Canadiens
Chris Driedger	Panthers

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

They can have Colin Miller, yes we all know that they will not be selecting Kyle Okposo, unless you're willing to send them a high end pick.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Miller's a legit NHL defenseman with a deal that expires after 2022 -- he's not so good as to block young players, but he's not so bad as to be unplayable. He could play the first half of the season while Seattle figures out what they might have in younger Dmen.......and then unload him to a playoff contender for a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He has a history of performing well on good teams, so the Miller selection for them makes a ton of sense.

I agree with this, his zone numbers look a lot better since his playing time has gone up, and under Granato he's at least "looked" better. At the same time, bye.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Here are the goalie picks:

Duhatschek:

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Matiss Kivlenieks	Blue Jackets
Braden Holtby	Canucks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan S. Clark

GOALTENDERS	TEAM
Adin Hill	Coyotes
Jake Allen	Canadiens
Chris Driedger	Panthers

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The writer didn't need to waste the majority if the article talking about Skinner when there are more realistic possibilities to discuss. Skinner isn't waiving his NMC.

 

[Fjordy]

It's not that they NEED Miller. It's that they could take him and shore up a #4-#5 spot on the team (even better if Botts and Francis think he's a #3). Miller was fine in Vegas, and Boston. There are plenty of GMs in the league that fall in love with certain guys that they probably shouldn't. Guys like Bjork, you could find on any team, Borgen, didn't seem Botterill was too much of a fan of his, and Asplund, outside of this year, was a prospect on the verge of getting lost in the depth chart. In a 21 game sample size, it's tough to gauge how he would be looked at.

Well, if they take Miller it will be great for us, but I don't believe it. In my post, I implied that they would have 3-4 options better than Miller for RDs position.

Miller's a legit NHL defenseman with a deal that expires after 2022 -- he's not so good as to block young players, but he's not so bad as to be unplayable. He could play the first half of the season while Seattle figures out what they might have in younger Dmen.......and then unload him to a playoff contender for a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He has a history of performing well on good teams, so the Miller selection for them makes a ton of sense.

Well, we'll see, so far I don't really believe that they will choose Miller.

 

[OkimLom]

Well, if they take Miller it will be great for us, but I don't believe it. In my post, I implied that they would have 3-4 options better than Miller for RDs position.

They will have 3-4 better options for every position that we have to offer. It will come down to what is best for them to build a team, not necessarily the most skilled players they can choose from. Miller, provides more to a "whole of a team" better than anything we have to offer them.

Personally, I would be a little bummed if they took Miller. He's played better now that he's actually being used as a support player than a facilitator of play, like he was assigned by previous coaches with, Dahlin of all people. He's more than played adequate partnering with Bryson and helping covering for Bryson push of the puck.

I don't think losing Miller would be "great" for us. Unlike Hall, or Staal, he's not an addition by subtraction type of player. He needed to be utilized in a better way.

 

[jc17]

 

[elchud]

Risto, Bjork and a 3rd to Seattle for them to take Okposo in the ED.

Too much, too little? I can see this being a positive for both organizations.

Way too little.

I'd offer 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and would retain 1.2million for them to select Okposo. And that won't be enough.

Top-8 protected 1st in 2022 i think is fair, for the whole 2 year contract no retention.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Way too little.

I'd offer 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and would retain 1.2million for them to select Okposo. And that won't be enough.

Top-8 protected 1st in 2022 i think is fair, for the whole 2 year contract no retention.

You get Okposo has JUST two years left and we save a $1 M stuffing him in the minors. He's an easy buyout in final year. We'd get $3.3 M in cap relief 2022-23 and then be a negative $1.3 M in 2023-24.

You are not giving up two seconds and retaining $1.2 M for two two years just to get one year of being out of contract. in 2021-22 when we are not even competitive. And 9th overall or higher 1st. Zero chance. Maybe a few years ago but Okposo contract has one year left and then it's real buyout friendly.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Way too little.

I'd offer 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and would retain 1.2million for them to select Okposo. And that won't be enough.

Top-8 protected 1st in 2022 i think is fair, for the whole 2 year contract no retention.


I'd offer 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and would retain 1.2million for them to select Okposo. And that won't be enough.

Top-8 protected 1st in 2022 i think is fair, for the whole 2 year contract no retention.

Origial poster is pretty close. For starters, Bjork is likely who they are getting from prospect list. Basically, they are getting Risto and 3rd for Okposo. Then ask yourself what they can get for Risto if they flipped him. Likely a 2nd plus, if you ask me. At $2.7 M, if they eat half his cap, Risto is worth a late, late first. I'd do this deal, if I were Sabres. Risto is leaving Buffalo after all this crap.

 

[Fjordy]

They will have 3-4 better options for every position that we have to offer. It will come down to what is best for them to build a team, not necessarily the most skilled players they can choose from. Miller, provides more to a "whole of a team" better than anything we have to offer them.

Personally, I would be a little bummed if they took Miller. He's played better now that he's actually being used as a support player than a facilitator of play, like he was assigned by previous coaches with, Dahlin of all people. He's more than played adequate partnering with Bryson and helping covering for Bryson push of the puck.

I don't think losing Miller would be "great" for us. Unlike Hall, or Staal, he's not an addition by subtraction type of player. He needed to be utilized in a better way.

Well, he makes almost four million and we don't have a place for him in the lineup.

 

[elchud]

Just look at the going rate for teams to clear cap space. I get it, who wants to give up assets to get rid of Okposos contract.

But the real question is who wants Okposos contract and what would they demand to take it.

This offseason will be educational as long as you take the homer glasses off. Cap space is a precious resource. Just watch.

 

[Jim Bob]

Just look at the going rate for teams to clear cap space. I get it, who wants to give up assets to get rid of Okposos contract.

But the real question is who wants Okposos contract and what would they demand to take it.

This offseason will be educational as long as you take the homer glasses off. Cap space is a precious resource. Just watch.

My guess is a 2022 1st with minimal protections is the minimum ask to take on Okposo's full contract.

 

[Zman5778]

I do wonder if re-signing McCabe indicates if Risto is staying or going.

Let's face it, the McCabe-Risto pairing was mostly dominant before COVID. They were a legit top-pair. If they can rekindle that....with Dahlin-Jokiharju as another very solid pairing..........that gives us a truckload of options for the 3rd pair, most of which is already in-house (Samuelsson, Bryson, Borgen, etc).

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Just look at the going rate for teams to clear cap space. I get it, who wants to give up assets to get rid of Okposos contract.

But the real question is who wants Okposos contract and what would they demand to take it.

This offseason will be educational as long as you take the homer glasses off. Cap space is a precious resource. Just watch.

Look at the buyout after next year. You are giving up picks for really just one year of serious freedom

 

[1TuchAnd1NoTuch]

I do wonder if re-signing McCabe indicates if Risto is staying or going.

Let's face it, the McCabe-Risto pairing was mostly dominant before COVID. They were a legit top-pair. If they can rekindle that....with Dahlin-Jokiharju as another very solid pairing..........that gives us a truckload of options for the 3rd pair, most of which is already in-house (Samuelsson, Bryson, Borgen, etc).

If we can get McCabe on a one year deal I wouldn’t hate this. If it works that’s a solid group, if not you move on from Risto and McCabe next summer

 

[sabresfan65]

Just look at the going rate for teams to clear cap space. I get it, who wants to give up assets to get rid of Okposos contract.

But the real question is who wants Okposos contract and what would they demand to take it.

This offseason will be educational as long as you take the homer glasses off. Cap space is a precious resource. Just watch.

There is 81 million more cap space next year than there was this year. Whether it helps you directly or by opening up space for other teams that you can work with, it will definitely help the cap crunch that teams were in this season. It won't be a cure all but it will help.