Ryan Johansen Saga III

[blahblah]

Then what did it say? "Hey, we REALLY want you here, but not enough to sign you long term?"

That kind of treatment would indeed motivate me... to find a new employer.

What is said was "we want to see another year before we throw 50 or 60 million at you".

What employer are you looking at that is looking to give you a six to eight year guaranteed contract? Do you have arbitration rights? Were you drafted by your employer and they hold your rights until your mid 20's?

You aren't even comparing apples to apples here... Or you are a C-level in a fortune 500 company or something and don't really operate in the real world.

 

[CBJ Tiffin]

I had to work and prove myself for over a decade to get myself into the range of "fair" for my knowledge and abilities.

Apples to apples?

 

[KJ Dangler]

Then what did it say? "Hey, we REALLY want you here, but not enough to sign you long term?"

That kind of treatment would indeed motivate me... to find a new employer.

Are you being serious ? Assuming he gets 4 mill, probably 3x the money he was getting paid, with he promise that if he continues to get better, a huge contract will be the payoff .

 

[db2011]

All of this has been bandied about ad nauseum, but one reason to not overpay is if you think the contract could affect Joey's development. Some people believe that it is a possibility and some don't. It appears likely that JD/JK fall in the former group.

Switching gears a bit, we've been thinking of comparison players/contracts the last while and one that I've been thinking more about is the Paul Stastny.

During his first 2 years in the league he had 78 pts in 82 games and 71 pts in 66 games -he was also nominated for the Calder in his rookie year. I was living in Colorado at the time and there was a lot of excitement about this kid being the future of the Avalanche. Part-way into his 3rd season, he signed a pretty nice extension for 5 years and 6.6 M AAV. Keep in mind that he was close to a PPG player when he signed (and had a more consistent track record than Joey at that point), but the Avalanche no doubt were also paying for his potential. It was thought that he'd maybe even grow to be a top 5 or 10 elite player in the league.

Now, Stastny has been a good player the last 5 years. But, he never really took the next step forward and instead took a step back IMO. He became a solid 50-60 point player rather than increasing/maintaining his PPG pace of his early years and achieving elite status.

It seemed like a reasonable contract at the time, and it wasn't horrible in hindsight, but I think most people agree he was a little overpaid the last 5 years. It seemed like the Avalanche agreed when it came time for the third contract and were looking for a bit of a pay cut. At that point, Stastny seemed pretty adamant that he wasn't taking a pay cut and St. Louis obliged (4 x 7 million).

No one knows whether the big contract affected Stastny's development and I'm not arguing that point here. I'm saying that, like Joey, Stastny seemed like a sure-fire investment. While I don't doubt that Joey will be at minimum a 50-60 pt player like Stastny has been, I think he can be more and I'd like him to have that drive to get there.

Finally, the other point (related to david's post) is that even if the Jackets open their wallets for Joey, there is no guarantee that it will be taken into consideration by him and his agent down the road. Like Stastny, he could want a pay raise regardless of whether his play kept on the same trajectory. With the way salary arbitration works, it would be pretty hard for the Jackets to decrease his pay on his next contract if he does take a step back. So, yes, there are reasons for why the Jackets don't want to overpay this contract that go beyond improving the bottom line for McConnell the next two years.

Good post. To your first point, about Joey's motivation being affected by a large contract, I mean I kind of get it (and share some of those reservations) but I also think it's a bit hocus-pocus. I mean, you can't know in any way what the reaction to the contract would be. And ultimately, you need to lean on the room to cultivate in the kid the things you fear he's lacking when debating whether to chop the value of your offer to him.

I just don't think we should determine contracts based on what we project will happen to a player who signs it. It's leather couch type thinking and how could someone change someone's mind who already is biased to think he'll react negatively to the paycheck? (And what a convenient, money-saving bias that is).

The difference in the Stastny to Joey comparison is that we are talking bridge here. 2 years. To your point about setting a precedent for Joey's future contracts, if a bridge comes in at a Bob-type level of 5 to 5.5 give or take, I imagine Joey's next contract would pay him more than that anyway. Obviously I could be wrong but that's true of my entire position (and anyone else's). If you don't like how he's progressed, you try to sign him for the same amount or slightly more. And the cap is likely going up anyway.

As far as the precedent this sets for other players with "one good year", well for one thing if that good year was as good as Joey's "one good year" then what a wonderful problem to have. I don't think it'll happen, just as I don't think we'd be talking about "one good year" with Joey if his second season hadn't been shortened and entered without much of training camp, with a new coach, or if Minnesota hadn't been such *****es down the stretch and we'd have made the playoffs.

I could go on but I've blathered enough for one post.

Joey's (agent's) demand of 7 million is silly, and Jarmo's insistence on 3.5 is hogwash.

 

[CBJ Tiffin]

Are you being serious ? Assuming he gets 4 mill, probably 3x the money he was getting paid, with he promise that if he continues to get better, a huge contract will be the payoff .

Could not be more serious. Promises are worthless. If everyone kept their promises, contracts wouldn't be necessary.

In any event, the point is moot. Joey caved and agreed to 2 years. Now if the Jackets are truly negotiating in good faith, it is their turn to compromise a little and increase their offer.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Good post. To your first point, about Joey's motivation being affected by a large contract, I mean I kind of get it (and share some of those reservations) but I also think it's a bit hocus-pocus. I mean, you can't know in any way what the reaction to the contract would be. And ultimately, you need to lean on the room to cultivate in the kid the things you fear he's lacking when debating whether to chop the value of your offer to him.

I just don't think we should determine contracts based on what we project will happen to a player who signs it. It's leather couch type thinking and how could someone change someone's mind who already is biased to think he'll react negatively to the paycheck? (And what a convenient, money-saving bias that is).

The difference in the Stastny to Joey comparison is that we are talking bridge here. 2 years. To your point about setting a precedent for Joey's future contracts, if a bridge comes in at a Bob-type level of 5 to 5.5 give or take, I imagine Joey's next contract would pay him more than that anyway. Obviously I could be wrong but that's true of my entire position (and anyone else's). If you don't like how he's progressed, you try to sign him for the same amount or slightly more. And the cap is likely going up anyway.

As far as the precedent this sets for other players with "one good year", well for one thing if that good year was as good as Joey's "one good year" then what a wonderful problem to have. I don't think it'll happen, just as I don't think we'd be talking about "one good year" with Joey if his second season hadn't been shortened and entered without much of training camp, with a new coach, or if Minnesota hadn't been such *****es down the stretch and we'd have made the playoffs.

I could go on but I've blathered enough for one post.

Joey's (agent's) demand of 7 million is silly, and Jarmo's insistence on 3.5 is hogwash.

Yet they actually studied the comparisons , to the point where they felt if this was able to go to arbitration , they are confident 3.5 would be the number. Probably ends up slightly higher, maybe 4 as the jackets make a good will jesture to get the deal done. Problem is the delusion on the side of Joey and his agent.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Very good post. The Stastny case is a great example of the "risks" involved in big $ contracts based on small sample size. He didn't flop but he didn't get better either.

Dion Phaneuf is another one. In the three years of his ELC, he had 54 goals and 159 points and looked like a future Norris winner. In those three years, he had 10 more goals than any other NHL defenseman and was 6th in points.

He signed a massive contract extension, and basically stagnated.

Ryan Whitney has gone in reverse since signing his big contract extension. Same with John-Michael Liles.

 

[IHeartZherdev*]

Yet they actually studied the comparisons , to the point where they felt if this was able to go to arbitration , they are confident 3.5 would be the number. Probably ends up slightly higher, maybe 4 as the jackets make a good will jesture to get the deal done. Problem is the delusion on the side of Joey and his agent.

Yep, Kurt Overhardt is just a delusional clown. Has no idea how to do his job.

http://kosportsinc.com/

 

[CBJ Tiffin]

As far as the precedent this sets for other players with "one good year", well for one thing if that good year was as good as Joey's "one good year" then what a wonderful problem to have. I don't think it'll happen, just as I don't think we'd be talking about "one good year" with Joey if his second season hadn't been shortened and entered without much of training camp, with a new coach, or if Minnesota hadn't been such *****es down the stretch and we'd have made the playoffs.

I don't put a lot of stock in the "one good year" concept either, given that the team decided when the ELC began. They could have easily sent Joey back to Portland for another season and maybe he would have "two good years" under his belt by the time the ELC ended.

Joey's (agent's) demand of 7 million is silly, and Jarmo's insistence on 3.5 is hogwash.

Bingo.

 

[EspenK]

I have two guestions:
1. Is it December first RFA's have to be signed by
before being ineligible to play the season?
2. What would happen next summer if RyJo
doesnt sign/get a contract now/this season?
would he be a free agent next July?

The above is from the previous thread. 2 posters indicated yes to question 1.

I was reading through the CBA and can't find this point. I did find the following:

For a Club that wishes to sign a Restricted Free Agent to whom the Club has rights, following the commencement of a season (i.e.,after the first day of the NHL Regular Season), then the following
rules shall apply:

ARTICLE 50 50.5-50.5

I didn't see anything about a Dec 1 deadline in the examples given for this situation, i.e when the Club has rights to RFA.

Can someone show me the relevant section of the CBA that establishes the December 1 deadline? Otherwise it looks to me like there is no deadline for the Jackets to sign Joey, just that any signing would be pro-rated over remaining games and with remaining salary cap.

 

[Fro]

good news everyone...Overhardt is also Rychel's agent...so we get to enjoy this fun again in a few years...

 

[Jaxs]

Doesn't a short-term (2-year) deal accomplish this more than the amount of money?

I wasn't talking about term and money in that response, only how I feel personally about competition.

I think Joey should get a 2 year $8 M deal. If his trajectory continues, by all means give him the 8x8.

 

[Mayor Bee]

The above is from the previous thread. 2 posters indicated yes to question 1.

I was reading through the CBA and can't find this point. I did find the following:

ARTICLE 50 50.5-50.5

I didn't see anything about a Dec 1 deadline in the examples given for this situation, i.e when the Club has rights to RFA.

Can someone show me the relevant section of the CBA that establishes the December 1 deadline? Otherwise it looks to me like there is no deadline for the Jackets to sign Joey, just that any signing would be pro-rated over remaining games and with remaining salary cap.

Article 50, and specifically 50.5, have to do with calculation of revenue as it pertains to payroll and salary.

What is interesting is that 50.5(iv)(A), which is what you quoted, says:
For a Club that wishes to sign a Restricted Free Agent to whom the club has rights, following the commencement of a season (i.e., after the first day of the NHL Regular Season), then the following rules shall apply

50.5(iv)(B) says:
For a Club that wishes to sign a Restricted Free Agent to whom the
Club does not have rights, or an Unrestricted Free Agent,
following the commencement of a season (i.e., after the first day of the NHL Regular Season), if the Club signs such a Player to an
SPC on or before December 1, then the following rules shall apply:

50.5(iv)(C) says:
For a Club that wishes to sign an Unrestricted Free Agent
following the commencement of a season (i.e., after the first day of the NHL Regular Season), if the Club signs such a Player to an
SPC after December 1, then the following rules shall apply:

The reference to December 1 for other RFAs or any UFA is interesting when compared to the exclusion of December 1 from one's own RFAs.

Now, the part I had referred to in the previous thread was from Section 11.4, which says:

"An SPC for a Group 2 Free Agent will be rejected and will be null and void ab initio (i.e., the Player's Free Agency and contractual status shall revert to the status he held prior to signing his SPC), if it is not signed and filed with Central Registry by 5:00 p.m. New York time on December 1 in the then current NHL Season."

In Exhibit 15 (league calendar), it says:

December 1 - Signing Deadline for Group 2 Free Agents

The dates listed next in Exhibit 16 refer only to the 2012-13 season, as it dealt with transitionary rules.

 

[NotWendell]

good news everyone...Overhardt is also Rychel's agent...so we get to enjoy this fun again in a few years...

Good point. And if the CBJ overpay now, they'll be overpaying twice in a few years.

 

[CBJ Tiffin]

I wasn't talking about term and money in that response, only how I feel personally about competition.

I think Joey should get a 2 year $8 M deal. If his trajectory continues, by all means give him the 8x8.

Yes, that was my mistake. I'm sorry. I Got caught up in a different conversation and forgot to come back to apologize.

 

[orthosrgn2]

I don't see this as a Ryan Johansen issue as much as I see it a team "philosophy" issue. Jarmo has a charge to ice the best team for the most cost effective price. He has made his signing mistakes, in my opinion, such as Jarod Boll and possibly Nathan Horton ( jury is still out), but his recent decisions have been fairly frugal. If he were to cave to Ryan"s demands he opens the flood gates to the likes of Jenner, Calvert, Atkinson, Murray, etc and will likely leave us cash strapped in the near future.

The CBA was developed to address these problems and I believe Jarmo is using them to be fiscally responsible to the CBJ as well as the NHL. That Johansen sees doubling his salary for 2 years as a "slap in the face" speaks to his insecurities to continue to perform. If he does accept the "paltry" increase in salary for 2 years and is productive then sign him to a long term lucrative contract. If he doesn't want to stay here, he can go to salary arbitration until he is a UFA and leave or more than likely be traded by us. If he doesn't succeed, then we don't have another Nash or Brassard on our hands.

The only alternative I see is for Johansen to sit out and play overseas which is assinine for him a well as the CBJ.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Paul Stastny was immediately put on a line with Milan Hejduk and his numbers dropped off as Hejduk's skills tapered off. Whatever you think of Johansen, his stats have not been boosted yet by any star on his line.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Yep, Kurt Overhardt is just a delusional clown. Has no idea how to do his job.

http://kosportsinc.com/

Of course he knows how to do his job. His job is to get the maximum return for his clients.

The team's front office's job is to ice the best team possible over the long term, which means taking a long term view so the best players possible can be signed within the team's salary budget.

Managing total payroll is huge so that it isn't necessary to dump good players simply for cap reasons.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Dion Phaneuf is another one. In the three years of his ELC, he had 54 goals and 159 points and looked like a future Norris winner. In those three years, he had 10 more goals than any other NHL defenseman and was 6th in points.

He signed a massive contract extension, and basically stagnated.

Ryan Whitney has gone in reverse since signing his big contract extension. Same with John-Michael Liles.

Please ad Evander Kane to this list as well. After his breakout 30 goal 57 point season, he signed a 6 year $31 million contract and hasn't exceeded 19 goals or 41 points since then.

 

[blahblah]

Apples to apples?

IN other words you aren't comparing the same things..

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

What's great is that we haven't gotten to the point of arguing semantics over what kind of contract would motivate me more.

 

[Jackets16]

Could not be more serious. Promises are worthless. If everyone kept their promises, contracts wouldn't be necessary.

In any event, the point is moot. Joey caved and agreed to 2 years. Now if the Jackets are truly negotiating in good faith, it is their turn to compromise a little and increase their offer.

If promises are worthless then what is potential? I don't know what is lower than worthless. The guy is going to be getting paid a lot for one good season and you are acting like we are being cheap.

 

[Jackets16]

Of course he knows how to do his job. His job is to get the maximum return for his clients.

The team's front office's job is to ice the best team possible over the long term, which means taking a long term view so the best players possible can be signed within the team's salary budget.

Managing total payroll is huge so that it isn't necessary to dump good players simply for cap reasons.

Yes, but you can hurt your clients earnings if you aren't realistic. It is his job to get him the maximum return, but he may not do that if he isn't realistic.

 

[CBJfan4evr]

I think he should get more than 4. I don't necessarily think 4 if "disrespectful" but I do think, on the open market, he'd get a contract with better compensation than that. I don't understand the stinginess with regard to this contract, except as a power play by Jarmo. When other fans come in here with trade proposals for Joey and ask what our needs are, I always think that our needs are exactly what Joey gives us.

Yes, we have the lion's share of leverage and can probably get Joey's camp to eventually sign the hard bargain Jarmo (or Zito) is peddling. But why go scorched earth? Why not overpay a bit for a player who could wind up a perennial difference maker, and who we cultivated? Because he's Howson's boy and not JD/JK's? At this point, the bridge seems to be foregone, so any risk is only for 2 years. I just don't get the hardass stance. He's what we've wanted forever, why impose such strict conditions here?

Everybody seems to want this kid based on his "one good season", why are we being such tightwads about it?

And I don't think our prospect depth should factor in here, because we'll be lucky if any of the young kids manage to achieve what Joey has. He really seems (to me) to be just what we need, for now and for the foreseeable future.

You could always go long on term, keeping in mind you have an amnesty buyout in your hip pocket. Not saying that is the thing to do; but it does mitigate the risk of doing so.

 

[PubOFH]

You have to keep the Carrot in front of this kid. Until he proves himself over a longer period, I say no more than $4.5 mill per.