RW Matvei Michkov - HC Sochi, KHL (2023 Draft) - PART 3

[kp61c]

The point is they are ranking them ahead because they are not watching Michkov play, nor did they much before the whole Russia ban thing. I think it's pretty obvious.
Bedard being the absolute best Canadian player and demolishing all stats is giving a very wrong impression on what top prospects do.

Even if Michkov played the expectations should not be for him to have 20 points or something, how many times has that happened? Even more so as a 17 yo?

How many Michkovs did we see in those tournaments? Michkov had the same amount of goals in 2 games as Carlson in 7. And he's an year younger than Carlson.

 

[Guadana]

Just imagine you are the owner and your GM said that team will pick by #10 pick "another" player because your head "scout" scouching said that there are 11 players better than Michkov on this draft.

 

[SoundAndFury]

What has he in real world done to deserve that mention?

Well, for instance, he did score over PPG in the VHL this year while his easiest comparable - another talented scoring winger drafted in the first round in Miroshnichenko who has also spent most of his draft year in the VHL - scored 0,5 PPG there.

His current KHL pace, ~0.5 PPG, is also closer to what other first-rounders would get in their D+1 or even D+2.

So the gap between him and your usual 1st round prospect is very obvious "in the real world". Really don't understand this argument at all.

 

[Lavar Ball]

View attachment 634758


Just imagine you are the owner and your GM said that team will pick by #10 pick "another" player because your head "scout" scouching said that there are 11 players better than Michkov on this draft.

He had him at 19 last month

 

[Guadana]

He had him at 19 last month

Look at him. 4 goals in 9(10?) games and game with 10 shots in KHL for 18 yo player is enough to be 12 OA! 7 spots higher. Good for Matvei.

 

[BB88]

Well, for instance, he did score over PPG in the VHL this year while his easiest comparable - another talented scoring winger drafted in the first round in Miroshnichenko who has also spent most of his draft year in the VHL - scored 0,5 PPG there.

His current KHL pace, ~0.5 PPG, is also closer to what other first-rounders would get in their D+1 or even D+2.

So the gap between him and your usual 1st round prospect is very obvious "in the real world". Really don't understand this argument at all.

If we are talking as one of the best ever from Europe his sample size is extremely small.

For that title he should really dominate KHL.

I can just name Barkov& Laine who were more impressive as prospects.

 

[CoSi]

View attachment 634758


Just imagine you are the owner and your GM said that team will pick by #10 pick "another" player because your head "scout" scouching said that there are 11 players better than Michkov on this draft.

Behind future franchise players Dmitri Simashev and Gavin Brindley

 

[SoundAndFury]

For that title he should really dominate KHL.

I can just name Barkov& Laine who were more impressive as prospects.

Why? Because you said so? What is the precedent of a prospect "dominating" a top-tier European league in his draft year?

Laine played in the Liiga after it started to hit a serious decline - after the expansion to 15 teams and no Jokerit. Barkov - sure - one could really argue he was a more impressive player in his draft year however the man is built like a truck. Obviously, at age 18, they face very different obstacles in terms of playing against men.

And a small sample size? No shit, most prospects have no sample size playing against men in their draft year at all.

 

[ViD]

If we are talking as one of the best ever from Europe his sample size is extremely small.

For that title he should really dominate KHL.

I can just name Barkov& Laine who were more impressive as prospects.

Nobody in history of Russian hockey dominated KHL or even RSL in their draft year, even Malkin and Ovechkin had very mediocre numbers in a league that was weaker than decimated KHL today.

Michkov has absolutely dominated every single tournament against his peers he participated in and outscored Bedard in 2021

 

[Fantomas]

View attachment 634758


Just imagine you are the owner and your GM said that team will pick by #10 pick "another" player because your head "scout" scouching said that there are 11 players better than Michkov on this draft.

No team would hire this guy to be their head scout.

 

[Guadana]

Why? Because you said so? What is the precedent of a prospect "dominating" a top-tier European league in his draft year?

Laine played in the Liiga after it started to hit a serious decline - after the expansion to 15 teams and no Jokerit. Barkov - sure - one could really argue he was a more impressive player in his draft year however the man is built like a truck. Obviously, at age 18, they face very different obstacles in terms of playing against men.

And a small sample size? No shit, most prospects have no sample size playing against men in their draft year at all.

Barkov and Laine were more physically ready. For Mitchkov, who produce because of his positioning and decision making, it is even an advantage, because in the physical aspect of the game he can still add.

 

[BB88]

Nobody in history of Russian hockey dominated KHL or even RSL in their draft year, even Malkin and Ovechkin had very mediocre numbers in a league that was weaker than decimated KHL today.

Michkov has absolutely dominated every single tournament against his peers he participated in and outscored Bedard in 2021

Nobody dominates Liiga either.
Barkov was one of the best players in Liiga during a lockout.

Laine won Liiga playoffs MVP and WC MVP.

I’m sorry but being ppg in VHL for 12 games doesn’t earn you that title

Michkov could end up being Kucherov/Kaprizov in the NHL but seems like he’s getting that titlw without actually earning it currently

Why? Because you said so? What is the precedent of a prospect "dominating" a top-tier European league in his draft year?

Laine played in the Liiga after it started to hit a serious decline - after the expansion to 15 teams and no Jokerit. Barkov - sure - one could really argue he was a more impressive player in his draft year however the man is built like a truck. Obviously, at age 18, they face very different obstacles in terms of playing against men.

And a small sample size? No shit, most prospects have no sample size playing against men in their draft year at all.

& this KHL didn’t see a massive decline in talent?

Barkov was a year younger than Michkov in his draft year and was one of the best players in Liiga during a lockout.

Laine won as well WC MVP at barely 18, on top of everything he achieved in Liiga& WJC.


I’m sorry but when it gets to a title like that you better earn it. Raise some standards.

Just like when people are getting generational tags, it raises the expectations to a whole different level

 

[ViD]

Michkov could end up being Kucherov/Kaprizov in the NHL but seems like he’s getting that titlw without actually earning it currently

What are you talking about ? He’s outscored EVERY Russian NHL player at his age and by a good margin

 

[Mr Buckles]

Probably not a popular opinion, but his plays without a puck really reminds me Yakupov.

It reminds me of Lionel Messi.

 

[mratch19]

Aside from the league stats, and I know it's been mentioned, but I don't think the u18 tournament in Texas can be ignored, where he led the tournament in scoring. Outscoring Bedard, McTavish and Wright (although Wright played less games). 12 goals in 7 games in any tournament against your best peers is pretty crazy. He did everything in his power during the gold medal game with 3 points, but Canada had a hell of a team.

I know it's just one tournament but I think it highlighted just how good he is. I think the main reason people like Scouching have him low, is representative of the weak points of 'analytics'. It doesn't account for goal scoring instincts or non-measurable qualities like confidence, or the 'it factor'.

Obviously him being signed in the KHL and the Russian political schtuff impacts his draft stock. But I do think he has the potential to be a top NHL talent. I don't think I could personally pass on his potential at #2 pick, but I understand that the NHL is a business and Carlsson might be a safe pick for a lot of teams.

 

[Fonzieleaf]

Shame we couldn't see what Michkov can do against his international peers. There would be less excuses to discredit him

Absolutely. If he would've gotten as much exposure as Bedard in the WJC, we would've heard about two phenoms instead of one.

 

[thomast]

Nah, he wasn't. Statistically and not only statistically.

Yes he was, especially after WJC’s he was top 3-5 player in liiga if not the best,and by far the best player on his team. He had a ”slow” start, but he progressed a lot during the season. At the playoffs he was everything for his team.

Kakko had 23 goals in his last 31 games in liiga including playoffs. 31 games is sample size around half of the games in regular season.

That is pace of 45 goals over full season rounded up. It would be tied 2nd best in all time scoring season in history of Liiga. Yes, including those high scoring era’s. Eye test might be opinion based i agree, but i actually have numbers/data to back it up how dominant Kakko was on his latter part of his draft year.

It’s still mind boggling to me how his developement stalled. To me he was on a trajectory to be a superstar.

 

[lawrence]

Will Scouch doesn’t like him. He’s got him ranked 19th and had this to say about it:

Scouching's Preliminary 2023 NHL Draft Rankings

Here we are, all together again for the holiday season. I've been hard at work since late August watching and tracking hundreds of players around the world, and my first preliminary list is now ready...

www.scouching.ca

Scouch is one of the more “unique” video/social media/indie “scouts” out there. But he’s got a pretty big following and makes interesting content, regardless of how much stock you put into his opinions.

Agreed.

It’s extremely impressive how much he details he puts in and provides us so much information just based off of him watching the player on video.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Another point...

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

If we are talking as one of the best ever from Europe his sample size is extremely small.

For that title he should really dominate KHL.

I can just name Barkov& Laine who were more impressive as prospects.

His sample goes all the way back to youth Olympics where he dominated, u17 dominated , u18 he was dominant MVP as an underaged late bday , mhl and vhl dominance, heck he even looked like a superstar at last year's WJC before it got cancelled. I highly doubt he has gotten worse since last year, and even then he looked much more dynamic than fantilli or carlsson did this year.

The only reason his sample isn't bigger is because Russia is banned from the iihf, he's literally demolished the competition at every opportunity in his career

 

[ESH]

It’s weird to me how many people feel the need to come in here and downplay Michkov’s talent. He’s been considered a top prospect for this draft for as long as Bedard has, and he just keeps doing more and more impressive things.

 

[BB88]

What are you talking about ? He’s outscored EVERY Russian NHL player at his age and by a good margin

If he has a generational european prospect tag on him the results have to be insane.

& we won’t be able to see those results.
Scoring 4 goals in 9 KHL games is not going to cut it.

1st he should be a better prospect than Barkov before getting generational tag put on his prospect status

His sample goes all the way back to youth Olympics where he dominated, u17 dominated , u18 he was dominant MVP as an underaged late bday , mhl and vhl dominance, heck he even looked like a superstar at last year's WJC before it got cancelled. I highly doubt he has gotten worse since last year, and even then he looked much more dynamic than fantilli or carlsson did this year.

The only reason his sample isn't bigger is because Russia is banned from the iihf, he's literally demolished the competition at every opportunity in his career

The issue is that we can’t see him at the men’s level do that.

Generational tag mean insane performance and doing it now and in the past.
We’ve seen plenty of elite prospects flame out once they come closer to draft.

 

[Kshahdoo]

If he has a generational european prospect tag on him the results have to be insane.

& we won’t be able to see those results.
Scoring 4 goals in 9 KHL games is not going to cut it.

1st he should be a better prospect than Barkov before getting generational tag put on his prospect status



The issue is that we can’t see him at the men’s level do that.

Generational tag mean insane performance and doing it now and in the past.
We’ve seen plenty of elite prospects flame out once they come closer to draft.

His results are insane though. I mean if you're better than Ovechkin, Malkin, Panarin, Kucherov, Kaprizov being 5'8, 160 kid isn't it insane?

Sochi wins at last. Michkov with an assist.

 

[BB88]

His results are insane though. I mean if you're better than Ovechkin, Malkin, Panarin, Kucherov, Kaprizov being 5'8, 160 kid isn't it insane?

How can we say his results are insane right now?

We can’t see him at the WJC, we can’t see him at the WC, KHL is weaker than in years.

Now he’s an awesome awesome awesome prospect but when you put generational tag on him it raises expectations through the roof and has to perform like Bedard to show it.

Panarin( undrafted),
Kaprizov(5th round pick),
Kucherov (late 2nd round pick).
Potential 2nd overall pick better be miles better prospect than any of those
and it’s 20 years from Malkin& Ovy, totally different world.

Maybe he ends up like Ovy but it’s impossible to call him generational prospect right now

 

[Boxscore]

How can we say his results are insane right now?

We can’t see him at the WJC, we can’t see him at the WC, KHL is weaker than in years.

Now he’s an awesome awesome awesome prospect but when you put generational tag on him it raises expectations through the roof and has to perform like Bedard to show it.

Panarin( undrafted),
Kaprizov(5th round pick),
Kucherov (late 2nd round pick).
Potential 2nd overall pick better be miles better prospect than any of those
and it’s 20 years from Malkin& Ovy, totally different world.

Maybe he ends up like Ovy but it’s impossible to call him generational prospect right now

Best case scenario, he ends up elite like Kucherov and Kaprizov.

Ovechkin and Malkin are different animals. Ovechkin's blend of passion, size, durability, scoring ability, and it factor come along once or twice in a lifetime. The only other who could historically match Ovie is Gordie Howe. Other players of his ilk like Lindros, Neely, Nash, etc. simply didn't possess his level of durability and raw passion. Comparing any Russian prospect -- or any prospect for that matter -- to Ovechkin is doing them a great disservice.

Malkin is also a rare combination of size and skill. He was also blessed to play with one of the likely Top 20 players in hockey history in Crosby. The stars aligned perfectly for Geno, other than his injuries.

That said, if Michkov ends up a blend between Kucherov, Kaprizov and Tarasenko, he'll be an elite player who can complete change a franchise and contend for a scoring title annually. Hard to pass on that kind of player.