RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2019, 10th, VAN)

[Fantomas]

Think about this:
Podkolzin scores 45 points in 68 games in WHL, playing in North America. Identical international performances. Where does he get ranked? Please try and answer honestly. Do you seriously arrive at #3? After performing this exercise, consider that WHL >> MHL.

Actually the MHL is a very tough league. And it's not unusual for guys to put up superior numbers in the Canadian leagues than they do in the Russian juniors.

Also nice work making stuff up.

 

[EdJovanovski]

That's why these scouts who "know what they're doing" ranked Puljujärvi's hockey IQ as Elite, right?

One of these reasons:
#1: Overvaluing international tournaments
#2: Overvaluing effort over ability
#3: Overestimating low-end Russian leagues like MHL and VHL

Think about this:
Podkolzin scores 45 points in 68 games in WHL, playing in North America. Identical international performances. Where does he get ranked? Please try and answer honestly. Do you seriously arrive at #3? After performing this exercise, consider that WHL >> MHL.


Him staying in Russia, to me, has nothing to do with it. He's simply not that good.

MHL is a far lower scoring league than the WHL.

 

[timothy jimothy]

That's why these scouts who "know what they're doing" ranked Puljujärvi's hockey IQ as Elite, right?

One of these reasons:
#1: Overvaluing international tournaments
#2: Overvaluing effort over ability
#3: Overestimating low-end Russian leagues like MHL and VHL

Think about this:
Podkolzin scores 45 points in 68 games in WHL, playing in North America. Identical international performances. Where does he get ranked? Please try and answer honestly. Do you seriously arrive at #3? After performing this exercise, consider that WHL >> MHL.


Him staying in Russia, to me, has nothing to do with it. He's simply not that good.

Who's to say he only gets 45 points in 68 games playing in the WHL? This is not a reality and completely hypothetical.

 

[timothy jimothy]

It seems a lot of scouts rank him the #3 prospect in this draft, but the resounding consensus on HFBoards is that he’s vastly overrated and should be around 8-10th. Where is the disconnect? Is it because people think the scouts put too much emphasis on international tournaments or what? Where does Porkolzin go in the draft?

I think the majority of the disconnect is because scouts actually watch him play full games and evaluate him based on their viewings whereas the majority on HF scout based on stats or very limited viewings.

I also think scouts tend to evaluate more based purely on the talent whereas HF tends to rank/mock players with more outside factors involved à la team needs, injury proneness, etc. And the disparity in Podkolzin's case some people are more bothered by him staying in Russia for the next few years than others.

 

[Bandit Keith]

Having watched about 12 or so of his games (not including wjc) idk if I'd say he's a slam-dunk 3rd overall guy like Mckenzies' scouts say but I am a fan of him and would be quite happy if he is available at #10.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Stan Bowman was interviewed around the TDL and he said (paraphrasing) the Hawks' plan was to try to get another shot at the Cup while Toews and Kane were still playing at a high level. What that means in terms of how they use the #3 pick is they will be less patient on waiting on the player than they would have been if it wasn't for this unique "Toews and Kane window". Therefore I think that eliminates Podkolzin from consideration by the Hawks because of the uncertainty when he would come to North America plus the time it takes him to acclimate once he gets here. Any of the other guys projected to go in the top-10 would be "online" sooner than Podkolzin and therefore would be a better fit withing the T&K window. And, it's not like Cozens or any of the others would be a consolation prize - they are all very good players too. My preference would be either Cozens or Turcotte.

 

[McDNicks17]

I think the majority of the disconnect is because scouts actually watch him play full games and evaluate him based on their viewings whereas the majority on HF scout based on stats or very limited viewings.

I also think scouts tend to evaluate more based purely on the talent whereas HF tends to rank/mock players with more outside factors involved à la team needs, injury proneness, etc. And the disparity in Podkolzin's case some people are more bothered by him staying in Russia for the next few years than others.

I think the problem with that assumption is I highly doubt most scouting sites, Button, McKenzie's list(since I doubt they polled Russian scouts), etc. are actually watching Podkolzin in Russia.

Like fans on here, they'll be going off international tourneys and what they've heard.

 

[Goulet17]

Stan Bowman was interviewed around the TDL and he said (paraphrasing) the Hawks' plan was to try to get another shot at the Cup while Toews and Kane were still playing at a high level. What that means in terms of how they use the #3 pick is they will be less patient on waiting on the player than they would have been if it wasn't for this unique "Toews and Kane window". Therefore I think that eliminates Podkolzin from consideration by the Hawks because of the uncertainty when he would come to North America plus the time it takes him to acclimate once he gets here. Any of the other guys projected to go in the top-10 would be "online" sooner than Podkolzin and therefore would be a better fit withing the T&K window. And, it's not like Cozens or any of the others would be a consolation prize - they are all very good players too. My preference would be either Cozens or Turcotte.

I've heard this logic going around on the Chicago pick. My thinking is that if Bowman and Chicago truly want an impact player now to assist Toews and Kane, they need to look at trading the pick for an established NHL player. I doubt Turcotte, Byrum, Cozens, or Dach play in the NHL next year and I don't believe that any of them will have a major NHL impact in their first couple of post-draft years.

I think their is a disconnect on some of the logic surrounding the Chicago pick.

 

[Fantomas]

Stan Bowman was interviewed around the TDL and he said (paraphrasing) the Hawks' plan was to try to get another shot at the Cup while Toews and Kane were still playing at a high level. What that means in terms of how they use the #3 pick is they will be less patient on waiting on the player than they would have been if it wasn't for this unique "Toews and Kane window". Therefore I think that eliminates Podkolzin from consideration by the Hawks because of the uncertainty when he would come to North America plus the time it takes him to acclimate once he gets here. Any of the other guys projected to go in the top-10 would be "online" sooner than Podkolzin and therefore would be a better fit withing the T&K window. And, it's not like Cozens or any of the others would be a consolation prize - they are all very good players too. My preference would be either Cozens or Turcotte.

If the Hawks key priority is another cup then they should trade the pick. Neither Cozens or Turcotte will help them win a cup anytime soon.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The scouts are wrong very often, as well. Them ranking Podkolzin third doesn’t guarantee he’s the third best player in the draft. He could end up the best player or the 100th best player in this draft. We’ll find out eventually. Those who’ve voiced concerns aren’t making things up out of thin air. They’ve formulated an opinion based on what they’ve seen. This is not some personal vendetta against a kid they don’t know.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I've heard this logic going around on the Chicago pick. My thinking is that if Bowman and Chicago truly want an impact player now to assist Toews and Kane, they need to look at trading the pick for an established NHL player. I doubt Turcotte, Byrum, Cozens, or Dach play in the NHL next year and I don't believe that any of them will have a major NHL impact in their first couple of post-draft years.

I think their is a disconnect on some of the logic surrounding the Chicago pick.

True and I wouldn't be against the idea of trading the pick to address the most glaring need - which is a top-pairing d-man. However, I think Bowman and most fans understand that the Hawks will not be legitimate Cup contenders next season and probably not in 2020/21 either. But, any of the N.A. players will be online and acclimated sooner than Podkolzin and the T&K window probably doesn't extend more than 3-4 years which means the "sweet spot" to have the new players hitting their stride before T&K lose theirs is only about 2 years - 2022/23 and 2023/24. If Podkolzin doesn't even come over to N.A. untile the beginning of 2022/23, and then takes another season to acclimate to N.A. and the NHL game - that puts him a year or more behind Cozens and the other potential #3 picks.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

If the Hawks key priority is another cup then they should trade the pick. Neither Cozens or Turcotte will help them win a cup anytime soon.

The Hawks won't win another Cup until they can stop the puck from ending up in their net which they couldn't do this season at even strength or on the PK. Not only do the Hawks need better defensive play from their d-men, they also need it from their forwards. They were in the top-10 in scoring - scoring is not a problem. But, Byram isn't a slam dunk d-stud, at least not one that's NHL ready right now. The BPA may be Podkolzin but there's the concern about when/if he comes over - so moving to the next BPA ... I would say Cozens and Turcotte are better centers than Byram is a d-man. If they decide they need to use the #3 pick on a d-man, I hope they put together a trade package to acquire an established d-man rather than selecting Byram.

 

[Orange Fanta]

The Hawks won't win another Cup until they can stop the puck from ending up in their net which they couldn't do this season at even strength or on the PK. Not only do the Hawks need better defensive play from their d-men, they also need it from their forwards. They were in the top-10 in scoring - scoring is not a problem. But, Byram isn't a slam dunk d-stud, at least not one that's NHL ready right now. The BPA may be Podkolzin but there's the concern about when/if he comes over - so moving to the next BPA ... I would say Cozens and Turcotte are better centers than Byram is a d-man. If they decide they need to use the #3 pick on a d-man, I hope they put together a trade package to acquire an established d-man rather than selecting Byram.

Any interest in maybe risto?

 

[cgf]

I think the problem with that assumption is I highly doubt most scouting sites, Button, McKenzie's list(since I doubt they polled Russian scouts), etc. are actually watching Podkolzin in Russia.

Like fans on here, they'll be going off international tourneys and what they've heard.

Why? Most of his games were available online to common people like myself, nevermind professionals.

He said he's not in any rush to leave Russia. That brings him down in my eyes

He said he wasn't in any rush to leave Russia for the CHL.

FWIW That interview should be encouraging to people who are worried he'd only come over for a city like NY because his desire to play in the NHL is professional, not because he wants to live the big life in a NA metropolis.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Any interest in maybe risto?

What has happened to that guy? When I saw him score the goal in the WJC final a few years back I thought he was going to be a stud #1 d-man and it seemed like his first couple years he was trending in the right direction, but lately ...

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Why? Most of his games were available online to common people like myself, nevermind professionals.


He said he wasn't in any rush to leave Russia for the CHL.

FWIW That interview should be encouraging to people who are worried he'd only come over for a city like NY because his desire to play in the NHL is professional, not because he wants to live the big life in a NA metropolis.

There might be more than 1 interview but the interview I saw quoted had nothing to do with the CHL - it was simply no desire to go to North America. He couched it a bit by saying maybe he would feel differently when he's a more complete player.

 

[cgf]

There might be more than 1 interview but the interview I saw quoted had nothing to do with the CHL - it was simply no desire to go to North America. He couched it a bit by saying maybe he would feel differently when he's a more complete player.

Do you have a link? because I've found that there are a lot of bad-/partial- translations of his interviews floating around.

I was talking about this one:
"Говорят, Америка, Канада – это круто. Но сейчас я не хочу туда ехать". Интервью нового русского суперталанта

 

[tigervixxxen]

How will a team know when Pod is coming over by "doing their homework" before the draft? They can do their HW all they want, but that won't help them when the player himself doesn't know his status in two years.

By talking to him? Everyone seems to remove that possibility from the equation that he can answer questions, as he should, and give whatever team that picks him a better idea of what the plan could be. It's nothing any of us here are privy to but it's absolutely something that's going to happen before he's drafted. It's not going to be a yolo lets just draft this dude and hope he shows up some day. That was the Kaprizov issue that's completely different from someone set to go top 3/5/10 in a draft and every team interested has had major contact with him.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

I don't really understand the stigma against drafting talented Russians early. Yes, they might take longer to come over but that's not necessarily a bad thing if they're better players during their ELC.

If you look back almost every first round pick ends up playing in the NHL and the rare cases who don't are total busts, not good Europeans who didn't come over. You don't hear a peep about teams hesitating to draft college(-bound) players because of Blake Wheeler or Adam Fox.

 

[SvechneJerk]

Is he NHL-ready or does he need the extra year or 2 to get there?

 

[cgf]

Is he NHL-ready or does he need the extra year or 2 to get there?

I think he absolutely needs the extra polish and wouldn't rush him to come over next summer even if there is an unreported out-clause. I'm a big fan of his but he doesn't turn 18 until after the draft and was playing in a U17 league last year. He may be able to survive in the NHL as soon as next season, but let him polish his game if you want to ensure that he becomes a player worth spending a top 5 pick on.

 

[Ncit3]

I think the disconnect between scouts and hfboards come from this tendency to de-value Russian players and play up Canadians. A lot of Junior Don Cherry's on the boards.

With that being said, if Chicago goes Byram at #3, I personally wouldn't hesitate to take Podkolzin. Adding someone like him, even if it takes him two seasons to get to the team, is great for the Avs future success.

 

[BurntToast]

This guy has been the consensus #3 and there is some belief he has a chance to be the best or second best player from the draft down the line. I feel like Russian scouting has always been lacking for various reasons. A good read is how Pavel Datsyuk was discovered:

Red Wings scout Hakan Andersson recalls process that led to the discovery of Pavel Datsyuk

Obviously with the internet scouts have access to more information but it still seems like the hardest market to track prospects/players. Plus, there doesn’t seem to be any correlation between doing well in KHL and their junior affiliates with having success in the NHL. There are language and cultural barriers that overseas prospects must overcome. Also, fundamental differences in how the game is played (ice size).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This guy has been the consensus #3 and there is some belief he has a chance to be the best or second best player from the draft down the line. I feel like Russian scouting has always been lacking for various reasons. A good read is how Pavel Datsyuk was discovered:

Red Wings scout Hakan Andersson recalls process that led to the discovery of Pavel Datsyuk

Obviously with the internet scouts have access to more information but it still seems like the hardest market to track prospects/players. Plus, there doesn’t seem to be any correlation between doing well in KHL and their junior affiliates with having success in the NHL. There are language and cultural barriers that overseas prospects must overcome. Also, fundamental differences in how the game is played (ice size).

I don't think its lacking at the top-end. Podkolzin shows up to all the big international tournaments, and he plays for the the best team outside the NHL. SKA's youth teams have become well scouted and a few times he played in the KHL this season.

I think we see the poor scouting after the obvious stars at the top of the draft. If a Russian is considered one of the stars of a draft, they'll be well scouted. If they aren't, thats where the poor scouting might come into play. Kucherov was very poor scouting. Panarin was very poor scouting. Buchnevich was very poor scouting. Kaprizov was very poor scouting. There are some undrafted prospects first time around like Sorokin, Rykov and Volkov who were very poor scouting.

I don't know the reason, but it seems like the problem is keeping track of players who might be in the 3/4-20 range in their age group. If you look at that group of players from any country, some will develop and others won't. The 16th best player from a country pre-draft could be the 2nd best player after the D+2 season. NHL teams seem to have a much harder time of evaluating this with Russian players than with players from other countries.

 

[nafrelio]

Where's the chatter about this guy at the U18s? Haven't heard much about the consensus third best prospect in the draft...how's he looked?