Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part III

[JetsFan815]

Tanev will not be on the Jets next season. I've grown to appreciate him but several teams in the league will be mesmerized by this speed and throw money at him -- like 2.5 million type of money. Teams like LA, Anaheim and Edmonton are probably salivating at the thought of having him in their lineup. We can't match that.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

Tanev will not be on the Jets next season. I've grown to appreciate him but several teams in the league will be mesmerized by this speed and throw money at him -- like 2.5 million type of money. Teams like LA, Anaheim and Edmonton are probably salivating at the thought of having him in their lineup. We can't match that.

Lots can happen between now and then. To make all the contracts fit, it may be that Chevy takes a hard look at Buff. Losing that contract plus the cap increase solves some problems. Creates a problem, but I imagine all options will be explored.

 

[voyageur]

Bettman says the cap should go up to $83 mil (basically the PA's 5% escalator). That gives us a little bit more wiggle room then most thought.

If we move Kulikov we will have $30 million to invest in 10 players. I think Laine and Connor are going to eat 16-17 million of that. I think we could get Sanheim at $3.5 million on a bridge in a Trouba trade. Or Ryan Pulock if we look for right side help. We can get Myers and Chiarot at $6-$7 million that's your 4-5 defenseman. And I think that's better than what you would pay on the market (see Kulikov). Brossoit, I'll say $1.5 million. The rest are entry level contracts, have Veselainen and Suess battle for a spot. Stanley, Niku, Samberg for 1 spot. Petan as a depth forward around $950 000. To make it all fit you have to move Perreault. Or simply replace Myers with a cheaper contract. I think it is easier to replace Perreault with Petan than it is to replace Myers (and Trouba) with limited depth in the system, but we'll see how the chips fall. Maybe we go younger. Love to get Madison Bowey out of Washington:

Sanheim-Buff
Morrissey-Bowey
Chiarot-Niku
Poolman

 

[Whileee]

Lots can happen between now and then. To make all the contracts fit, it may be that Chevy takes a hard look at Buff. Losing that contract plus the cap increase solves some problems. Creates a problem, but I imagine all options will be explored.

Bettman projects the salary cap at $83.0M. That's probably pretty good news for Chevy and might give a bit of wiggle room. Most of my projections assumed a cap of $82.5M.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Jets could give up Hellebuyck, Little and Wheeler to Seattle. 20 million would be freed if all of them went.

 

[Whileee]

With an $83M cap...

Laine at $11M (x 8 years)
Trouba at $8M (x 4 years)
Connor at $7M (x 6 years)

If the Jets need more, they might need to trade Copp and/or go for a cheaper option than Chiarot (though I'm sure they would like to keep him, for their own reasons).

Another option would be to bridge Connor, which would defer the pain, but might be the only good option for the next couple of seasons (until the cap rises and Buff comes off the books).

I also think that we'll see the Jets deploy a 22 man roster more often next season as a way of preserving cap space, which is an important advantage of having the Moose based in Winnipeg.

The following season they'll have another cap squeeze with Morrissey needing another $4+M. If the cap rises by another $3-4 million it will probably be manageable, but quite tight.

 

[Whileee]

Jets could give up Hellebuyck, Little and Wheeler to Seattle. 20 million would be freed if all of them went.

Expansion draft in 2021 for the Jets...

Protected...

Forwards (7):

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Lowry
Roslovic

Defense (3):

Morrissey
Trouba
Niku

Unprotected....

Forwards: Little, Copp, Appleton, Lemieux, Petan, etc.
Defense: Poolman, Stanley, Green, etc.

Notes:

Buff is a UFA in 2021, so ineligible. That works out well for the Jets because they can still re-sign him as a UFA, I believe.

Vesalainen avoids the expansion draft availability because he didn't play 10 games in the NHL this season, so he won't officially start his first "professional" season until next year.

I would think that if Little is still performing well, they might try to sweeten the pot for Seattle to keep him as they did with Enstrom, perhaps partly out of loyalty. However inadvisable it might be from a pure on-ice perspective, that's the way they are.

Okay, what am I missing?

 

[Huffer]

I didn't mean right now with the Jets, but other teams would. But he could play well with Scheifele/Wheeler and Little/Laine, but what we have is too good when healthy.

I would imagine that being: LA, Chicago, Calgary, Anaheim, Carolina, Islanders, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston, Detroit, Arizona, Edmonton, and Vancouver. Say what you want, he'll get PLENTY of offers when he's a UFA. But for all we know if he leaves he could turn into Tanner Glass, who did indeed only play well HERE.

He's not a 1st liner on any of those teams IMO. He's fast, and he's fearless, but he doesn't have the skill required to be in the top 6, let alone top line.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Expansion draft in 2021 for the Jets...

Protected...

Forwards (7):

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Lowry
Roslovic

Defense (3):

Morrissey
Trouba
Niku

Unprotected....

Forwards: Little, Copp, Appleton, Lemieux, Petan, etc.
Defense: Poolman, Stanley, Green, etc.

Notes:

Buff is a UFA in 2021, so ineligible. That works out well for the Jets because they can still re-sign him as a UFA, I believe.

Vesalainen avoids the expansion draft availability because he didn't play 10 games in the NHL this season, so he won't officially start his first "professional" season until next year.

I would think that if Little is still performing well, they might try to sweeten the pot for Seattle to keep him as they did with Enstrom, perhaps partly out of loyalty. However inadvisable it might be from a pure on-ice perspective, that's the way they are.

Okay, what am I missing?

Unprotected:

2016-2017 Hellebuyck
Little
Wheeler (if he has regressed)
Everyone else that wasn't protected

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Tanev will not be on the Jets next season. I've grown to appreciate him but several teams in the league will be mesmerized by this speed and throw money at him -- like 2.5 million type of money. Teams like LA, Anaheim and Edmonton are probably salivating at the thought of having him in their lineup. We can't match that.

Its possible but I don't think it is likely. I think every team has players of his level/type in their systems. Maybe not quite his speed, but close enough.

I don't think it will be Tanev's UFA status that will determine whether he is back next year or not. It will be the competition for his spot on the roster. Assuming that Vesa is ready next year, Appleton sticks and that Perreault is gone, I see 1 spot remaining. That is Tanev's. Who do we have who could replace him in that shutdown role? I don't think Petan can do it. Lemieux hasn't shown much. Kerdiles? Suess? Harkins? Suess might be a good possibility there. So might Logan Shaw. Or even the forgotten man, JC Lipon. But if not someone currently with the Moose, I think Tanev is back.

 

[Duke749]

Unprotected:

2016-2017 Hellebuyck
Little
Wheeler (if he has regressed)
Everyone else that wasn't protected

What?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bettman projects the salary cap at $83.0M. That's probably pretty good news for Chevy and might give a bit of wiggle room. Most of my projections assumed a cap of $82.5M.

I've been using 82.5 also. 500k isn't a lot of difference and Bettman's number at this point has a pretty wide +-. For practical purposes, it is the same number.

 

[Gm0ney]

Unprotected:

2016-2017 Hellebuyck
Little
Wheeler (if he has regressed)
Everyone else that wasn't protected

Wheeler will have to be protected as he has an NMC until the end of 2021-22.

And I know giving up on Hellebuyck is all the rage these days, but goalies go through stuff like this all the time. Even the best goalies. Lundqvist had a .907 through the first 30 games of the 2016-17 season. Just this year he put up an .873 over 11 games in January and February. Shit happens. Relax.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Expansion draft in 2021 for the Jets...

Protected...

Forwards (7):

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Lowry
Roslovic

Defense (3):

Morrissey
Trouba
Niku

Unprotected....

Forwards: Little, Copp, Appleton, Lemieux, Petan, etc.
Defense: Poolman, Stanley, Green, etc.

Notes:

Buff is a UFA in 2021, so ineligible. That works out well for the Jets because they can still re-sign him as a UFA, I believe.

Vesalainen avoids the expansion draft availability because he didn't play 10 games in the NHL this season, so he won't officially start his first "professional" season until next year.

I would think that if Little is still performing well, they might try to sweeten the pot for Seattle to keep him as they did with Enstrom, perhaps partly out of loyalty. However inadvisable it might be from a pure on-ice perspective, that's the way they are.

Okay, what am I missing?

Some key differences for the Jets between a '20 expansion draft and a '21 XD. For one, Little can be exposed. If the XD is in '20 he has to be protected due to his NMC.

I'll be a little surprised if either Lemieux or Petan is still with us after the '21 season. I'll also be surprised if they select a player like Little, at his age. He'll be 33, turning 34 early the next season. They'd be doing us a favour taking his contract.

By that time Chevy will have had 3 years of fighting severe cap crunch. I think the loyalty will have been knocked out of him.

 

[Gil Fisher]

$11m seems a bit rich for Laine. That's 13.3% of an $83m Cap. I think that's more than he is warranted. I think 11% of the Cap would be a fairer offer. I'm skeptical whether the next TV deal from Sportsnet/TSN in Canada would support even that level though. I don't think they have made much money off the current deal and if the Deal is flat or goes down at all, it could be concerning for a long-term contract at 10-15% of the Cap.

 

[Saintb]

assume for the sake of argument that Stanley keeps progressing up until the time of the expansion draft. do you leave him unprotected? taking into account his age and his potential I wouldn't.

 

[voyageur]

Expansion draft in 2021 for the Jets...

Protected...

Forwards (7):

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Lowry
Roslovic

Defense (3):

Morrissey
Trouba
Niku

Unprotected....

Forwards: Little, Copp, Appleton, Lemieux, Petan, etc.
Defense: Poolman, Stanley, Green, etc.

Notes:

Buff is a UFA in 2021, so ineligible. That works out well for the Jets because they can still re-sign him as a UFA, I believe.

Vesalainen avoids the expansion draft availability because he didn't play 10 games in the NHL this season, so he won't officially start his first "professional" season until next year.

I would think that if Little is still performing well, they might try to sweeten the pot for Seattle to keep him as they did with Enstrom, perhaps partly out of loyalty. However inadvisable it might be from a pure on-ice perspective, that's the way they are.

Okay, what am I missing?

That's pretty good but it's too tight. Guys like Chiarot are going to get more than 1.4 million. I think that is a decrease in salary. Unless guys like Trouba, Laine or Connor come down from their ask no way it's going to fit. And that Trouba re-signing is optimistic. Career Jet? I don't know about that, he has definitely played well in his time here, but I think he's always in Buff's shadow here, and this is Buff and Wheeler's team. You always hope, that after Scheifele and Morrissey signed team friendly deals that others will follow. So we'll see.
Otherwise looks pretty good.

Expansion draft will be interesting because Stanley will be in the mix too. With Niku. And we've saved Veselainen from being exposed by letting him go back home.

Lowry will be UFA that year, so I think that helps Little or Appleton.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

$11m seems a bit rich for Laine. That's 13.3% of an $83m Cap. I think that's more than he is warranted. I think 11% of the Cap would be a fairer offer. I'm skeptical whether the next TV deal from Sportsnet/TSN in Canada would support even that level though. I don't think they have made much money off the current deal and if the Deal is flat or goes down at all, it could be concerning for a long-term contract at 10-15% of the Cap.

You could make an identical post for every high paid player in the league. Just edit details of name and cap %.

 

[Board Bard]

Expansion draft in 2021 for the Jets...

Protected...

Forwards (7):

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Lowry
Roslovic

Defense (3):

Morrissey
Trouba
Niku

Unprotected....

Forwards: Little, Copp, Appleton, Lemieux, Petan, etc.
Defense: Poolman, Stanley, Green, etc.

Notes:

Buff is a UFA in 2021, so ineligible. That works out well for the Jets because they can still re-sign him as a UFA, I believe.

Vesalainen avoids the expansion draft availability because he didn't play 10 games in the NHL this season, so he won't officially start his first "professional" season until next year.

I would think that if Little is still performing well, they might try to sweeten the pot for Seattle to keep him as they did with Enstrom, perhaps partly out of loyalty. However inadvisable it might be from a pure on-ice perspective, that's the way they are.

Okay, what am I missing?

In two more seasons after this one it's entirely possible that Lowry will be less than he is now and a guy like Appleton will have considerably more value, on the ice and in the budget, making him the keeper (barring loyalty issues or other misplaced preferences).

 

[Gil Fisher]

You could make an identical post for every high paid player in the league. Just edit details of name and cap %.

Not sure I understand. Looking at players who received >13% of Cap off their ELC is a pretty short list (Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid).

Stamkos was 11.7%. I'd say that is a close comparable.

 

[Gm0ney]

There are only 2 active players who've hit 50+ goals in a season: Stamkos and Ovechkin.

Stamkos' deal is 11.64% of the cap - a pretty significant "hometown discount". Florida's tax situation adds about $1M to Stamkos' take home pay - so he'd have to make $9.5M in Manitoba. $9.5M is 13% of the cap (at time of signing). 13% of $83M = ~$11M.

Ovi's deal was 16.82% of the cap when he signed. 16.82% of 83M = ~$14M.

I think that establishes a reasonable range. It'll depend on what Matthews gets too, I think. Chevy's not usually the first to sign his players in these situations. I think Laine gets about $1M less than Matthews.

Edit: Oops - I was looking at 60 goal scorers. Well, Laine's on pace for over 60 right now. But active 50 goal scorers also includes Crosby (14.5%, but signed at 17.3% coming off his ELC), Malkin (14.77%, 15.34% coming off ELC) and Corey Perry (13.41% - didn't score 50 until the 2nd year of his 2nd contract and it was a bit of an outlier).

 

[Jimmyjets]

There are only 2 active players who've hit 50+ goals in a season: Stamkos and Ovechkin.

Stamkos' deal is 11.64% of the cap - a pretty significant "hometown discount". Florida's tax situation adds about $1M to Stamkos' take home pay - so he'd have to make $9.5M in Manitoba. $9.5M is 13% of the cap (at time of signing). 13% of $83M = ~$11M.

Ovi's deal was 16.82% of the cap when he signed. 16.82% of 83M = ~$14M.

I think that establishes a reasonable range. It'll depend on what Matthews gets too, I think. Chevy's not usually the first to sign his players in these situations. I think Laine gets about $1M less than Matthews.

Goal scoring is only part of the equation though. Stamkos was putting up mid 90 points per season and Ovechkin was putting up 110ish at the time he signed. 1/3rd of the way through the season and Laine is on pace to put up 50 goals but also only 9 assists. If his current pace keeps up for the entire year we're talking 75 points, not 95 to 110 with those comps. The lack of assists shows that he's not driving the play 5 on 5 like other elite players would. Maybe I'll be terribly disappointed, but Wheeler signed for all UFA years coming off a 91 point season for $8.25. I expect Laine to get $8.5 - $9 instead of $10+. He's also a winger where Matthews, Eichel, McDavid are all centers.

 

[Gm0ney]

Goal scoring is only part of the equation though. Stamkos was putting up mid 90 points per season and Ovechkin was putting up 110ish at the time he signed. 1/3rd of the way through the season and Laine is on pace to put up 50 goals but also only 9 assists. If his current pace keeps up for the entire year we're talking 75 points, not 95 to 110 with those comps. The lack of assists shows that he's not driving the play 5 on 5 like other elite players would. Maybe I'll be terribly disappointed, but Wheeler signed for all UFA years coming off a 91 point season for $8.25. I expect Laine to get $8.5 - $9 instead of $10+. He's also a winger where Matthews, Eichel, McDavid are all centers.

Well, I hope you're right - but I think if he hits 50+ it's easily going to be north of $10M.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not sure I understand. Looking at players who received >13% of Cap off their ELC is a pretty short list (Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid).

Stamkos was 11.7%. I'd say that is a close comparable.

Easy. Take every high paid player. I didn't say anything about ELCs. Take Toews, take Kane, take Eichel, take Doughty, etc, etc. Plug in whatever cap % fits. I said edit details of names and numbers. All the rest would be identical. Your concern for league TV revenue applies to every player in the league, and so on.

As for what Laine is likely to get, wait until closer to the end of the season. After not scoring in the last 2 games he is down to a 66 goal pace. If he scores 65+ he will get 12 mil. You'll wish for 11. If he flat-lines and ends up with 'only' ~45 he will get about 10.5 mil, maybe as low as 10.

 

[robertocarlos]

Trouba might not be a Jet. I would protect another F and leave Wheeler unprotected.