Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VIII: The Titanic Edition

[CREW99AW]

Sorokin is waiting for official news that he is not allowed to play out his ELC this season if they resume. If he signs as of now he will have to automatically play next year.

Barzal maybe someone else can add here. All I have heard is due to COVID it will not be as big of a contract as originally expected.

Thanks. I appreciate the update.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Okay, but the original post blanket stated that when players come over from Russia they dont want to play in the minors. That isn't the case.

Moreover, Samsonov was drafted 22nd overall, and Vasi 19th overall. So, while they have not have been as accomplished, the organizations that drafted them invested a lot.

In Samsonov's case, being drafted in 2015, only a few weeks later the Caps resigned a then 25 year old Holtby to a five year extension... took Sami' four years to come over, obviously with no clear path to start, yet still came, still went to the AHL, and took the steps to make the team.

I'm not saying these guys are in the same exact position as Sorokin, obviously Sorokin holds a lot more cards than those guys, but to just flat out say russians don't want to play in the minors is not true.

Ah, ok, I didn't see the prior context to the discussion.

A blanket statement that Russians aren't willing to play in the minors in order to make their way to the NHL naturally isn't true, as you've pointed out.

I'd say that right now, Kaprizov and Sorokin are the two specific prospect cases that are so sensitive that their respective teams know these guys are not coming over without an NHL guarantee, even if Sorokin might be open to taking a route similar to Shestyorkin's, although it likely won't be necessary if the team simply allows Greiss to walk (as expected).

I think Kaprizov steps right in. Sorokin as well, at least in the course of his first season in North America. A 10-20 game stint in the AHL might even be something his camp is in favor of.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

If there is no amnesty buyout, then does anyone think packaging Leddy with Ladd for basically a warm body in the AHL or late round pick is:
A. Worth it for the cap space?
B. Another team would do?

I think the answer to B ends the whole scheme of thought. No team out there is doing this.

Aside from the fact that we need any trading of Leddy to be all about bringing us back replenishment picks or an impact scoring forward, no team is adding that 11 MM to their roster just to get Leddy in their line-up. I'm not even sure the league would approve of a move like this if there wasn't contract moving back the other way.

We have to hope very hard for an amnesty buyout. It is also extremely logical in light of the Corona reality and how that situation has determined what a hard cap is going to be. As things were, every team in the league was expecting 2-5 more million in space added on top. Some teams right now are less than a million below the cap - with guys on the IR.

The league basically has to enable such a move, which in turn will make things interesting for everyone. If there's a league-wide amnesty buyout, then that places prolly 20 very interesting players on the market who are now very much affordable. It'll be a whole bunch of Shattenkirks, so to speak.

In addition, too many of the league's favorite areas are going to be hit hard by a cap that doesn't increase, so exceptions like this will be made.

In fact, we shouldn't be surprised if there's an amnesty buyout and a CBO, even it that technically gives a number of teams a free pass while it does really nothing for those who have played it very safe with their roster construction.

But what's more important to the league? Giving a helping hand to the Torontos and Rangers of the world, or being fair to the Columbus and Colorados of the world?

For my money, I'm betting on their being an amnesty buyout and is like 95% certain that it'll be Ladd who is bought out.

 

[SI]

I think the answer to B ends the whole scheme of thought. No team out there is doing this.

Aside from the fact that we need any trading of Leddy to be all about bringing us back replenishment picks or an impact scoring forward, no team is adding that 11 MM to their roster just to get Leddy in their line-up. I'm not even sure the league would approve of a move like this if there wasn't contract moving back the other way.

We have to hope very hard for an amnesty buyout. It is also extremely logical in light of the Corona reality and how that situation has determined what a hard cap is going to be. As things were, every team in the league was expecting 2-5 more million in space added on top. Some teams right now are less than a million below the cap - with guys on the IR.

The league basically has to enable such a move, which in turn will make things interesting for everyone. If there's a league-wide amnesty buyout, then that places prolly 20 very interesting players on the market who are now very much affordable. It'll be a whole bunch of Shattenkirks, so to speak.

In addition, too many of the league's favorite areas are going to be hit hard by a cap that doesn't increase, so exceptions like this will be made.

In fact, we shouldn't be surprised if there's an amnesty buyout and a CBO, even it that technically gives a number of teams a free pass while it does really nothing for those who have played it very safe with their roster construction.

But what's more important to the league? Giving a helping hand to the Torontos and Rangers of the world, or being fair to the Columbus and Colorados of the world?

For my money, I'm betting on their being an amnesty buyout and is like 95% certain that it'll be Ladd who is bought out.

A few weeks ago I thought there was def. going to be an amnesty buyout. I even thought maybe 1 this summer and 1 next summer.

I have engaged with several posters on the main board, who were adamant that the $ didn’t make sense for the owners. now Elliotte Friedman on his podcast mentioned there is indeed push back from owners about a amnesty buyout.

now this may all be posturing and it is still too early to say.

my post was addressing - if there wasn’t one - how do the Isles add a scorer with Ladd still on the books?

it goes back to trying to move Ladd’s contract and giving up serious assets to do so. Not many would want to ante up the 2021 #1 to do so.

then I thought taking on a bad contract with the same $ but a more favourable cap hit.

enter Cory Schneider 2/12 (8 m actual $)
For Andrew Ladd 3/16.5 (9m after bonus is paid).

both players bought out means
Schneider 4 years at 2 m cap hit
Vs.
Ladd 3 years at 4.83m cap hit

This would give the Isles 2.5-3.5 m in cap space.

my question - in this purely hypothetical- how much more would the Isles have to add?

I mean the Devils do not actually have to buyout Ladd and would really be paying for one more year of Ladd.


Sorry for my Covid hockey anxiety ramblings

 

[leeroggy]

I saw one of those Canadian videos about what player could be on the move and he talked about Roslovic and how he could be moved to fill their defense hole.. It got me thinking about what might work and improve our offensive balance, since we are so center-focused on salary.

Was thinking:

Nelson and Mayfield for Ehlers and Roslovic. Pageau can move up to 2C, and Roslovic to 3C. Dobson gets his RD slot. Salary cap hit pretty even. We get the proper winger for Barzal. Roslovic got only 14 minutes TOI a game and still put up 29 points with little PP time.

Winnipeg solves their 2C issue and adds a RHD. I'll post this on the Trade Board too to see if there's interest.

Any thoughts?

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I saw one of those Canadian videos about what player could be on the move and he talked about Roslovic and how he could be moved to fill their defense hole.. It got me thinking about what might work and improve our offensive balance, since we are so center-focused on salary.

Was thinking:

Nelson and Mayfield for Ehlers and Roslovic. Pageau can move up to 2C, and Roslovic to 3C. Dobson gets his RD slot. Salary cap hit pretty even. We get the proper winger for Barzal. Roslovic got only 14 minutes TOI a game and still put up 29 points with little PP time.

Winnipeg solves their 2C issue and adds a RHD. I'll post this on the Trade Board too to see if there's interest.

Any thoughts?

Honestly...

I love it!

 

[PK Cronin]

I saw one of those Canadian videos about what player could be on the move and he talked about Roslovic and how he could be moved to fill their defense hole.. It got me thinking about what might work and improve our offensive balance, since we are so center-focused on salary.

Was thinking:

Nelson and Mayfield for Ehlers and Roslovic. Pageau can move up to 2C, and Roslovic to 3C. Dobson gets his RD slot. Salary cap hit pretty even. We get the proper winger for Barzal. Roslovic got only 14 minutes TOI a game and still put up 29 points with little PP time.

Winnipeg solves their 2C issue and adds a RHD. I'll post this on the Trade Board too to see if there's interest.

Any thoughts?

Can't be done since Nelson has a full NTC for another year.

 

[leeroggy]

Can't be done since Nelson has a full NTC for another year.

On the Trade thread they are complaining Nelson is too old, at 28! Imagine how I feel at 61? At least I'm in Florida, since Seinfeld says that's the law once you pass 60 . . .

 

[Easternbull]

I don't think the Jets are going to trade Ehlers since IMHO he gives you apart from Mckinnon and Scheiffele the most bang for your buck with his 6m$ contract untill 2025.

Roslovic they are willing to move but after reading between the lines, I have come to the conclusion that Patrik Laine does not want to and will not sign long term in Winnipeg.

IMHOMaurice and Scheiffele have and will always favored Wheeler and I don't think he will settle for 2nd line minutes in the long run. In the past this was understadable but this season I feel Patrik has become an equally good or arguably even better RW then Wheeler.

Could the Isles make cap space to sign Patrik long term? I f so what would you guys be willing to give up in return?

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I don't think the Jest ar egoing to trade Ehlers since IMHO he gives you apart from Mckinnon and Scheiffel the most banf for your buck with his 6m$ contract untill 2025.

Roslovic they are willing to move but after reading between the lines, I have come to the conclusion that Patrik Laine does not want to and will not sign long term in Winnipeg.

IMHOMaurice and Scheiffele have and will always favored Wheeler and I don't think he will settle for 2nd line minutes in the long run. In the past this was understadable but this season i feel Patrik has become a equally good or arguably even better RW then Wheeler.

Could the Isles make cap space to sign Patrik long term? I f so what would you guys be willing to give up in return?

One thought last summer was that it might have been worth calling up Winnipeg and offering up Leddy and Wahlstrom for Laine.

Of course, Laine was coming off his worst season and everyone knew that he's going to cost a bundle one way or another in the near future.

Dunno if something like this could ever have materialized?

Doubt it'd be of any interest now.

But it looks like fitting him in cost-wise is possible on Long Island, even if a few sacrifices would have to be made.

 

[KrisBeKreame]

These play-offs will go a long way to setting player valuations and the teams future direction in the offseaon. We will see if Leddy raises his value for a trade, Barzal changes his contract value, Boychuk/ proves he has things left in the tank.

 

[danteipp]

These play-offs will go a long way to setting player valuations and the teams future direction in the offseaon. We will see if Leddy raises his value for a trade, Barzal changes his contract value, Boychuk/ proves he has things left in the tank.

My exact thoughts as well. I believe there is going to be a player in the $5-6 million AAV range that is ultimately going to play his way off the team.

Be it Leddy, Boychuk, Bailey, etc. and/or maybe Ladd finally gets sent to Robidas Island. Barring a miracle run to the Stanley Cup, there will have to be a material move (or a couple moves) made before next season to shuffle assets and deal from a strength to fill a weakness.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

These play-offs will go a long way to setting player valuations and the teams future direction in the offseaon. We will see if Leddy raises his value for a trade, Barzal changes his contract value, Boychuk/ proves he has things left in the tank.

I don't think anything that happens in the playoffs is going to do all that much in rating these players moving forward.

They're coming off or what, 3-4 months of inactivity?

You can't throw 'em onto the ice under these circumstances and then use that as a basis of evaluation.

That said, Lou will need to make decisions based on financial aspects one way or the other.

No getting around that.

And now he's had plenty of time to figure out how he plans on going about with this endeavor.

 

[buud]

for sure, it's always interesting to see which youngster takes the reins. any tournament is interesting. totally different atmosphere, and there are always surprises.

I think the next youngin that we see regularly will be Bellows. one of Martin or MDC will work his way off of the roster.

my prediction? Martin takes a cut, and stays with us. he and Johnston can alternate. MDC just seems a half step behind, and never really... does much. Martin still causes a ruckus, forces pucks to pop out, forcing bad passes, protecting the kids. give him a 1 yr at $1.5, and have Holmstrom in the ready.

 

[islesny88]

One thought last summer was that it might have been worth calling up Winnipeg and offering up Leddy and Wahlstrom for Laine.

Of course, Laine was coming off his worst season and everyone knew that he's going to cost a bundle one way or another in the near future.

Dunno if something like this could ever have materialized?

Doubt it'd be of any interest now.

But it looks like fitting him in cost-wise is possible on Long Island, even if a few sacrifices would have to be made.

Getting Laine would be a huge get for us. I think he'd fit so well with Barzal. Barzal creates space and passing lanes as good as anyone else in the league and Laine would bury a lot of the chances.

I think you have a good base for a trade still, Leddy and Wahlstrom for Laine, but what else needs to be added? Wilde perhaps? Mayfield possibly? It looks like they could use some help defensively, specifically on the right side with not much help in the pipeline, unless I'm mistaken.

 

[SI]

Getting Laine would be a huge get for us. I think he'd fit so well with Barzal. Barzal creates space and passing lanes as good as anyone else in the league and Laine would bury a lot of the chances.

I think you have a good base for a trade still, Leddy and Wahlstrom for Laine, but what else needs to be added? Wilde perhaps? Mayfield possibly? It looks like they could use some help defensively, specifically on the right side with not much help in the pipeline, unless I'm mistaken.

I do not think that package is going to work - the Jets need a 2C and top pairing RHD-

I wonder if a package starting with Nelson ++ can work

 

[islesny88]

I do not think that package is going to work - the Jets need a 2C and top pairing RHD-

I wonder if a package starting with Nelson ++ can work

Brock would need to waive his ntc. Either way, could we afford to lose Brock?

In the Leddy thread on the trade board, there was at least one jets fan that showed interest in him. Plus wahlstrom could fill the goal scorer role for them, al be it to a lesser extent even if he reaches full potential.

If we were to move Brock, we’d have to fill that role somehow thru fa. Pageau could fill in fine at number 2 but number 3 becomes a significant hole.

 

[scott99]

On the Trade thread they are complaining Nelson is too old, at 28! Imagine how I feel at 61? At least I'm in Florida, since Seinfeld says that's the law once you pass 60 . . .

Are you Jewish ? I think his joke was, that if your Jewish, once you turn 60 you must move to Florida. Not sure, have to look that up. Funny thing is, my Jewish relatives from NY/NJ, all moved to Florida, even my Dad was talking about it at one point. My mom's side, which are Catholic, moved to places like North Carolina.

 

[leeroggy]

Are you Jewish ? I think his joke was, that if your Jewish, once you turn 60 you must move to Florida. Not sure, have to look that up. Funny thing is, my Jewish relatives from NY/NJ, all moved to Florida, even my Dad was talking about it at one point. My mom's side, which are Catholic, moved to places like North Carolina.

I'm Jewish. The line is actually from a Seinfeld stand-up routine.

 

[buud]

Brock would need to waive his ntc. Either way, could we afford to lose Brock?

In the Leddy thread on the trade board, there was at least one jets fan that showed interest in him. Plus wahlstrom could fill the goal scorer role for them, al be it to a lesser extent even if he reaches full potential.

If we were to move Brock, we’d have to fill that role somehow thru fa. Pageau could fill in fine at number 2 but number 3 becomes a significant hole.

I think we got the boys to fill the C hole. Zeeky plays over 14 minutes a game, so he is, for all intents and purposes, our 3C. Barzal, Pageau, Zeek. Komorov or Koivula can fill in. Beau was a C in Jr.. Brassard is a C. Fritz or Bardreau may in be able to handle 4C. I'd prefer that we deal for another young, gritty C, but I would not think that we are hurting in that position.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I think we got the boys to fill the C hole. Zeeky plays over 14 minutes a game, so he is, for all intents and purposes, our 3C. Barzal, Pageau, Zeek. Komorov or Koivula can fill in. Beau was a C in Jr.. Brassard is a C. Fritz or Bardreau may in be able to handle 4C. I'd prefer that we deal for another young, gritty C, but I would not think that we are hurting in that position.

I could live with the idea of moving Brock in a move like this, but I don't think he'd be replaced from within.

More likely would be that Lamoriello would seek a replacement by signing a guy like Adam Henrique as a 1/2-year holdover. If he's then outplayed from within, so be it. But the whole left by Nelson would otherwise be too big for one of the internal options if we're serious about winnings.

 

[SI]

It all depends on if there is an amnesty/compliance buyout this offseason.

It is still hard for me to imagine the league, owners, and players not granting one.

If there isn't one, then we might be looking at upgrades only happening from within.
Or the Isles will have to get creative or pay to get rid of contracts.

 

[scott99]

Getting Laine would be a huge get for us. I think he'd fit so well with Barzal. Barzal creates space and passing lanes as good as anyone else in the league and Laine would bury a lot of the chances.

I think you have a good base for a trade still, Leddy and Wahlstrom for Laine, but what else needs to be added? Wilde perhaps? Mayfield possibly? It looks like they could use some help defensively, specifically on the right side with not much help in the pipeline, unless I'm mistaken.

I think it would take a HUGE package to get Laine. I don't think we have what it takes.

 

[PK Cronin]

I think it would take a HUGE package to get Laine. I don't think we have what it takes.

Last summer was the time to make that move, while he was disgruntled and coming off a "meh" season.

 

[Riseonfire]

Last summer was the time to make that move, while he was disgruntled and coming off a "meh" season.

I don't think WPG would have moved him either way. From an asset management standpoint, they did the best move which was to wait it out.

Now, I DO wonder about his long term future in WPG. He is an RFA after next season.