Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VIII: The Titanic Edition

[PK Cronin]

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Previous thread: Speculation: - Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VII: The Lou Awakens

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Nearly every team in the league is near the same number. If minor deals to move out contracts has to happen, that's not too hard to do. We see that done every single year. Martin, Brassard, Kuhnhackl, Greiss, Greene, St. Denis, Schmaltz, Hegelson, Coreau, and Gibson are all set to be UFAs, which is ten contracts. Some will be brought back, some will be replaced, but that's plenty of flexibility. Then you add in the RFAs and there is even more flexibility. I don't think the contract limit is really a problem at the moment and usually becomes a problem for teams trying to make trades in-season.

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[xECK29x]

Blow it up!

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

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Previous thread: Speculation: - Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VII: The Lou Awakens

Nearly every team in the league is near the same number. If minor deals to move out contracts has to happen, that's not too hard to do. We see that done every single year. Martin, Brassard, Kuhnhackl, Greiss, Greene, St. Denis, Schmaltz, Hegelson, Coreau, and Gibson are all set to be UFAs, which is ten contracts. Some will be brought back, some will be replaced, but that's plenty of flexibility. Then you add in the RFAs and there is even more flexibility. I don't think the contract limit is really a problem at the moment and usually becomes a problem for teams trying to make trades in-season.
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Nor do I.

Just at the moment, Lou doesn't have (much) wiggle room to pick up a couple of college or junior free agents this spring.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Draft lottery:
Even if we somehow don't make the playoffs, I cannot see us coming CLOSE to having a draft lottery pick.

Let's be realistic, people.

Very surprised that some around here are making that caveat whenever it's mentioned that we don't have a first rounder this summer.

 

[Tahoeblue]

Next year, play Bellows and Wally, they will need to learn on the fly. I don't trust BST to develop them properly. You are going to have to infuse some youth. Team looks old and slow. Shed the obvious UFA's and perhaps a contract that has term for possible help or picks. Most think that may be Leddy or Bailey. Hope and pray Sorokin can infuse some talent between the pipes and 1c matures a bit.

 

[Newsworthy]

Not sure what recipe Lou is cooking up but he needs to change his diet.
People says Lou was brought in to clean up Garth Snow's mess. The mess is only getting bigger.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Blow it up!

No Eck, you're more rational than that; some tweaks.

 

[danteipp]

Draft lottery:
Even if we somehow don't make the playoffs, I cannot see us coming CLOSE to having a draft lottery pick.

Let's be realistic, people.

Very surprised that some around here are making that caveat whenever it's mentioned that we don't have a first rounder this summer.

Maybe I am not reading your post correctly, but every team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at one of the top-3 picks in the NHL draft lottery.

And there have been two longshots just the past two years when Chicago moved from #12 to #3 and Carolina moved from #11 (sandwiched between the Islanders two picks) to #2.

If the Isles don't make the playoffs, let's hope for a lottery win. After the Devils, Rangers, Flyers and Hurricanes got lucky, maybe it is the Isles turn?

 

[xECK29x]

No Eck, you're more rational than that; some tweaks.

Sorry should have put the sarcasm smiley

 

[leeroggy]

Next year, play Bellows and Wally, they will need to learn on the fly. I don't trust BST to develop them properly. You are going to have to infuse some youth. Team looks old and slow. Shed the obvious UFA's and perhaps a contract that has term for possible help or picks. Most think that may be Leddy or Bailey. Hope and pray Sorokin can infuse some talent between the pipes and 1c matures a bit.

We ARE old . . .

 

[leeroggy]

Maybe I am not reading your post correctly, but every team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at one of the top-3 picks in the NHL draft lottery.

And there have been two longshots just the past two years when Chicago moved from #12 to #3 and Carolina moved from #11 (sandwiched between the Islanders two picks) to #2.

If the Isles don't make the playoffs, let's hope for a lottery win. After the Devils, Rangers, Flyers and Hurricanes got lucky, maybe it is the Isles turn?

If we can't get a high stick call in OT you can imagine the machinations to keep us from that! If the Leafs miss the playoffs, book it, they win the lottery. After all, according to their fan base, as the Leafs go, so goes the NHL!

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Maybe I am not reading your post correctly, but every team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at one of the top-3 picks in the NHL draft lottery.

And there have been two longshots just the past two years when Chicago moved from #12 to #3 and Carolina moved from #11 (sandwiched between the Islanders two picks) to #2.

If the Isles don't make the playoffs, let's hope for a lottery win. After the Devils, Rangers, Flyers and Hurricanes got lucky, maybe it is the Isles turn?

Yes, in that case, we'll have to hope for such luck.

 

[leeroggy]

Last night on the NHL Network, they were discussing the Barzal Offer Sheet possibilities. While so much of that is the equivalent of click bait, Weekes (who played for LL) insinuated that Barzal would be open to hearing it. Weekes called him the good soldier for buying into the defensive scheme but also noted how much offense it was costing Barzal.

This year's threshholds:

$1,395,053 or below: No compensation required
$1,395,054 to $2,113,716: Third-round pick
$2,113,717 to $4,227,437: Second-round pick
$4,227,438 to $6,341,152: First-round pick plus a third-round pick
$6,341,153 to $8,454,871: First, second, and third-round picks
$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

2 firsts, a second and a third seems pretty damn cheap to pick him up for at $10 million per year.

You can assume Montreal is licking their chops with the Cap going up and their already existing space.

 

[doublechili]

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Previous thread: Speculation: - Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VII: The Lou Awakens

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Does "The Titanic Edition" mean we're sinking, or we're about to start winning?

I have a vague recollection that when the Isles win there is some Titanic-related thing, but it's been so long I can't quite recall specifically....

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Last night on the NHL Network, they were discussing the Barzal Offer Sheet possibilities. While so much of that is the equivalent of click bait, Weekes (who played for LL) insinuated that Barzal would be open to hearing it. Weekes called him the good soldier for buying into the defensive scheme but also noted how much offense it was costing Barzal.

This year's threshholds:

$1,395,053 or below: No compensation required
$1,395,054 to $2,113,716: Third-round pick
$2,113,717 to $4,227,437: Second-round pick
$4,227,438 to $6,341,152: First-round pick plus a third-round pick
$6,341,153 to $8,454,871: First, second, and third-round picks
$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

2 firsts, a second and a third seems pretty damn cheap to pick him up for at $10 million per year.

You can assume Montreal is licking their chops with the Cap going up and their already existing space.

Do we know how many years he could theoretically be signed to with an offer sheet?

Any amount?

Only 5?

Maybe 7?

My take:
If a team makes one of the final two offers (bolded above), then Lou is NOT going to pony up.

I don't see it happening. Something just tells me that the organization isn't THAT in love with him or sold on him. Not as THE cog in the type of team he and Trotz want to have in the race.

Instead, I think Lou will take the picks and use the appropriated money on as big a scoring winger as he can get on the market this summer (with possible overpay). This would mean he'd be looking to nab Rantanen, Hall or Hoffman - probably in that order. Nugent-Hopkins might be in the mix as well (yes, I know, he's technically a center).

I can also see him looking to ink a player like Soderberg or Koivu to a 2/3-year contract while Brassard is left to walk.

I naturally believe no less than Greiss and Kuhnhackl will be walking as well.

Just thoughts at the moment...

 

[doublechili]

Do we know how many years he could theoretically be signed to with an offer sheet?

Any amount?

Only 5?

Maybe 7?

My take:
If a team makes one of the final two offers (bolded above), then Lou is NOT going to pony up.

I don't see it happening. Something just tells me that the organization isn't THAT in love with him or sold on him. Not as THE cog in the type of team he and Trotz want to have in the race.

Instead, I think Lou will take the picks and use the appropriated money on as big a scoring winger as he can get on the market this summer (with possible overpay). This would mean he'd be looking to nab Rantanen, Hall or Hoffman - probably in that order. Nugent-Hopkins might be in the mix as well (yes, I know, he's technically a center).

I can also see him looking to ink a player like Soderberg or Koivu to a 2/3-year contract while Brassard is left to walk.

I naturally believe no less than Greiss and Kuhnhackl will be walking as well.

Just thoughts at the moment...

I'm pretty sure an offer could be for anything from 1 to 7 years. Also, I don't think this would be Lou's decision. He could make a recommendation, but L&M would decide. And considering how hard it is for the Isles to convince UFAs to sign here, I doubt they'd allow their best player to walk away, especially with a billion dollar arena project underway.

IMO, the worst case scenario is that some team offers the minimum number of years for Barzal to get to UFA. So we match but then he's a UFA sooner rather than later.

 

[leeroggy]

I'm pretty sure an offer could be for anything from 1 to 7 years. Also, I don't think this would be Lou's decision. He could make a recommendation, but L&M would decide. And considering how hard it is for the Isles to convince UFAs to sign here, I doubt they'd allow their best player to walk away, especially with a billion dollar arena project underway.

IMO, the worst case scenario is that some team offers the minimum number of years for Barzal to get to UFA. So we match but then he's a UFA sooner rather than later.

And that makes some other moves likely, like the Cizikas one I've mentioned in the Vancouver thread. I don't see how you pay $25 million for your 4 centers. If Casey is traded, or packaged, he might well earn a higher contract extension, while if he is here as the #4 that is highly unlikely. He basically is where Pageau was a couple of years ago, slotted into a position he couldn't fully show his skills in. Now look at what happened in the circumstances; he got a chance to really show his offensive skills in a top role and produced enough to get that contract from us.

 

[PK Cronin]

Does "The Titanic Edition" mean we're sinking, or we're about to start winning?

I have a vague recollection that when the Isles win there is some Titanic-related thing, but it's been so long I can't quite recall specifically....

Double entendre.

 

[BARzalDOWN]

I personally don’t make this trade but if there’s trouble signing Barzal, do we and/or fla consider a Barzal for Barkov swap?

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Not sure what recipe Lou is cooking up but he needs to change his diet.
People says Lou was brought in to clean up Garth Snow's mess. The mess is only getting bigger.

Honestly, I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Lou's just filling up the cap with a bunch of supporting players. We're gonna have no cap room with essentially the same roster we've had for the past two years.

 

[SI]

Do we know how many years he could theoretically be signed to with an offer sheet?

Any amount?

Only 5?

Maybe 7?

My take:
If a team makes one of the final two offers (bolded above), then Lou is NOT going to pony up.

I don't see it happening. Something just tells me that the organization isn't THAT in love with him or sold on him. Not as THE cog in the type of team he and Trotz want to have in the race.

Instead, I think Lou will take the picks and use the appropriated money on as big a scoring winger as he can get on the market this summer (with possible overpay). This would mean he'd be looking to nab Rantanen, Hall or Hoffman - probably in that order. Nugent-Hopkins might be in the mix as well (yes, I know, he's technically a center).

I can also see him looking to ink a player like Soderberg or Koivu to a 2/3-year contract while Brassard is left to walk.

I naturally believe no less than Greiss and Kuhnhackl will be walking as well.

Just thoughts at the moment...

Rantanen is signed, Chapin.

And there is talk that Koivu is going to retire.

My belief is that Isles will match any offer, but I don’t think it even goes there.

 

[SI]

Next year, play Bellows and Wally, they will need to learn on the fly. I don't trust BST to develop them properly. You are going to have to infuse some youth. Team looks old and slow. Shed the obvious UFA's and perhaps a contract that has term for possible help or picks. Most think that may be Leddy or Bailey. Hope and pray Sorokin can infuse some talent between the pipes and 1c matures a bit.

you don’t give the kids a job - they need to come out a win it. Bellows and Wahlstrom are both waiver exempt and if they are not lights better than other players then they should play BPT and be the first call ups - injuries happen.

 

[leeroggy]

I personally don’t make this trade but if there’s trouble signing Barzal, do we and/or fla consider a Barzal for Barkov swap?

Florida only considers that if they know Barzal's extension terms and are signed. Right now Barkov is the better player. The better player at $5.9 million with term. Or Barzal at $9 million? Easy choice for Florida to say no.

 

[The Real JT]

Last night on the NHL Network, they were discussing the Barzal Offer Sheet possibilities. While so much of that is the equivalent of click bait, Weekes (who played for LL) insinuated that Barzal would be open to hearing it. Weekes called him the good soldier for buying into the defensive scheme but also noted how much offense it was costing Barzal.

This year's threshholds:

$1,395,053 or below: No compensation required
$1,395,054 to $2,113,716: Third-round pick
$2,113,717 to $4,227,437: Second-round pick
$4,227,438 to $6,341,152: First-round pick plus a third-round pick
$6,341,153 to $8,454,871: First, second, and third-round picks
$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

2 firsts, a second and a third seems pretty damn cheap to pick him up for at $10 million per year.

You can assume Montreal is licking their chops with the Cap going up and their already existing space.

Barzal has not proven to be worth $10.6M+.

It's a good bet Barzal signs for the second highest salary range that you listed.

The draft compensation if we let him go would essentially be the equivalent of what assets Lou just paid for JPG with an additional 1st round pick.

If Lou let him go for that it'd be historically bad asset management.

 

[periferal]

Last night on the NHL Network, they were discussing the Barzal Offer Sheet possibilities. While so much of that is the equivalent of click bait, Weekes (who played for LL) insinuated that Barzal would be open to hearing it. Weekes called him the good soldier for buying into the defensive scheme but also noted how much offense it was costing Barzal.

This year's threshholds:

$1,395,053 or below: No compensation required
$1,395,054 to $2,113,716: Third-round pick
$2,113,717 to $4,227,437: Second-round pick
$4,227,438 to $6,341,152: First-round pick plus a third-round pick
$6,341,153 to $8,454,871: First, second, and third-round picks
$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

2 firsts, a second and a third seems pretty damn cheap to pick him up for at $10 million per year.

You can assume Montreal is licking their chops with the Cap going up and their already existing space.

Very interesting point.

In terms of the Isles they should match anything. If they don't and Barzal isn't here next year then we go from having a #1 center to officially becoming a rebuilding team in a second.