Speculation: Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VII: The Lou Awakens

[CREW99AW]

@Noreaster....Yes cause the league is disbanding after the 2022-2023 season?
No need for 1st rounders

 

[Doshell Propivo]

IMO, Bailey, Clutterbuck, and Boychuk are all thought of pretty highly by Trotz as well with the A on their sweaters.

Bailey for sure and he'd be tough to part with. Leddy plays much more than Boychuk which confirms who he values more.

 

[CREW99AW]

Want to point out that many other teams will be trying to set their rosters for the expansion draft. Move quality players they cannot protect.
Isles trying to move Leddy, wouldn't be the only team shopping quality talent.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

If all stays the same and somehow you get Barzal on bridge signing all 3 RFA's for 14 million and burying Ladd's contract you would the team would be @ 85 of total cap space with a 22 man roster and the same F group now minus Martin & Kuhnackl.

We can have hypothetical conversations about payroll in the offseason. Let's put away the calculators until then and enjoy the playoffs.

All I'm saying is that it's a mistake to trade Leddy.

 

[Le Grec]

We can have hypothetical conversations about payroll in the offseason. Let's put away the calculators until then and enjoy the playoffs.

All I'm saying is that it's a mistake to trade Leddy.

Agree. I'm not Leddy's biggest fan, but he's getting paid at fair value. Ladd is the priority. After that it's Leo, Boychuk, Clutter and Hickey...

 

[MJF]

I'm surprised by the amount of people who are so quick to trade Leddy. For some reason he's become a whipping boy around here but pretty sure Trotz has a different opinion. Look how much ice time he gets and look at how Trotz always trusts him in critical situations. Guys, we are NOT deep on defense and can ill-afford to lose our fastest, and one of the best, skaters on the entire team (not just on the blue line). We may have adequate NHL-level depth quantity-wise but certainly not quality. We lose Pelech for a few weeks and unravel like a cheap sweater, struggling to go .500 and force a deadline deal to bolster the back-end.

If we MUST trade a defenseman for cap purposes I'd nominate Boychuk. Would hate to see him go but better him than Leddy. But my fist choice(s) would be wingers. Not surprisingly Ladd, Clutterbuck, Komarov and Bailey (as a last resort).

I may be in the minority here but I think Leddy is still very valuable and I would be very reluctant to dump him.

I don’t think in Leddy’s case it’s dumping a scapegoat. I think people here realize he has a contract commensurate with what he can bring to a team without being overpaid, is still young enough and still a commodity. I certainly don’t WANT to trade Leds, but if Toews and Dobson continue to progress we have some in house replacements for him.

 

[SI]

We can have hypothetical conversations about payroll in the offseason. Let's put away the calculators until then and enjoy the playoffs.

All I'm saying is that it's a mistake to trade Leddy.

And all I'm saying is that it might be a mistake not to.
Great, let's move on.

 

[Chardo]

Do you really want Barzal on a bridge contract to hit UFA at age 25? He'd get well over 10m in that situation.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I don’t think in Leddy’s case it’s dumping a scapegoat. I think people here realize he has a contract commensurate with what he can bring to a team without being overpaid, is still young enough and still a commodity. I certainly don’t WANT to trade Leds, but if Toews and Dobson continue to progress we have some in house replacements for him.

I hear ya. I just think trading one of your best defenseman (and best skater) and penciling in neophytes to take his spot is a recipe for disaster. Especially for a team on the cusp of being a contender. Wingers are easier to replace. Arbour used to say this all the time.

 

[Chardo]

Boychuk's contract is not so bad after this year. Only 2 years, 6m cap hit, 4m salary. I would think there's a market for him, without having to retain much or attach assets.

 

[Chardo]

I hear ya. I just think trading one of your best defenseman (and best skater) and penciling in neophytes to take his spot is a recipe for disaster. Especially for a team on the cusp of being a contender. Wingers are easier to replace. Arbour used to say this all the time.

True, but if you want an elite winger, you have to give to get, and clear cap space to afford. Isles will be paying 11, possibly 12 players at least 5m each next year. Someone has to go if they want to add. And Leddy may be the most valuable choice.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I'm surprised by the amount of people who are so quick to trade Leddy. For some reason he's become a whipping boy around here but pretty sure Trotz has a different opinion. Look how much ice time he gets and look at how Trotz always trusts him in critical situations. Guys, we are NOT deep on defense and can ill-afford to lose our fastest, and one of the best, skaters on the entire team (not just on the blue line). We may have adequate NHL-level depth quantity-wise but certainly not quality. We lose Pelech for a few weeks and unravel like a cheap sweater, struggling to go .500 and force a deadline deal to bolster the back-end.

If we MUST trade a defenseman for cap purposes I'd nominate Boychuk. Would hate to see him go but better him than Leddy. But my fist choice(s) would be wingers. Not surprisingly Ladd, Clutterbuck, Komarov and Bailey (as a last resort).

I may be in the minority here but I think Leddy is still very valuable and I would be very reluctant to dump him.

I don't know if the idea is about dumping.

Leddy's simply one of the few roster players of note who would be marketable and bring back a return while also freeing up some money at the same time. For any and all flaws he's got, he'd certainly not be easy to replace.

Among the forwards, I'd say Bailey is in the same boat. I just don't know if management would part with a guy who is such an identity figure as a self-drafted, self-developed player who is on a contract that can be considered a tick under market value?

Will be very interesting to see how Lamoriello proceeds with respect to these two players in light of other needs and the upcoming RFAs, each of whom are key players moving forward.

 

[PK Cronin]

I'm surprised by the amount of people who are so quick to trade Leddy. For some reason he's become a whipping boy around here but pretty sure Trotz has a different opinion. Look how much ice time he gets and look at how Trotz always trusts him in critical situations. Guys, we are NOT deep on defense and can ill-afford to lose our fastest, and one of the best, skaters on the entire team (not just on the blue line). We may have adequate NHL-level depth quantity-wise but certainly not quality. We lose Pelech for a few weeks and unravel like a cheap sweater, struggling to go .500 and force a deadline deal to bolster the back-end.

If we MUST trade a defenseman for cap purposes I'd nominate Boychuk. Would hate to see him go but better him than Leddy. But my fist choice(s) would be wingers. Not surprisingly Ladd, Clutterbuck, Komarov and Bailey (as a last resort).

I may be in the minority here but I think Leddy is still very valuable and I would be very reluctant to dump him.

Maybe in a fantasy hockey mindset but I don't see how Lou and Trotz would be behind this.

I hear ya. I just think trading one of your best defenseman (and best skater) and penciling in neophytes to take his spot is a recipe for disaster. Especially for a team on the cusp of being a contender. Wingers are easier to replace. Arbour used to say this all the time.

You guys pretty much covered a lot of the topic but I did want to add that a player like Greene could help bridge the gap between Leddy and a replacement (Dobson). Definitely less offensive, but a solid defender and could be had for significantly cheaper while allowing the trade of Leddy to bring in help offensively. Of course, that's a risky move but it could help address the offense without crippling the defense. I do agree that if an alternative is available I'd go that route instead. That Ladd deal for Parise is exactly the type of move I'd like to see. Turn the wasted cap space into something useful.

When speculating about the Cap, I really think people need to more seriously consider the possibility/probability that Barzal signs a 2 or 3 year contract in the $6-7 million range. It's probably in both his and the Isles' interests to do that.

I agree. I do not think Barzal is getting more than $8M on his next deal.

Do you really want Barzal on a bridge contract to hit UFA at age 25? He'd get well over 10m in that situation.

I'd deal with that when the time comes. No problems paying him if he's worth it when the time comes. By not paying him now we're buying time and that's valuable too, especially with the expansion draft looming.

 

[periferal]

You would have to think the Wild were asking for a quality asset as well as Ladd. I can only speculate, but if it was Bellows or maybe even Wilde, I am content that it didn't happen.

Are you serious? If the deal was Ladd and Bellows for Parise I invent a teleportation system to instantly have them arrive in Minny because I don't want to risk time driving them to the airport.

Ladd is a zero at this point. Bellows has barely shown a pulse. If anyone is happy giving up "who knows what they will become" draft picks for a 3rd line center, then how in the world could anyone be upset giving up "we basically know what they ares" for a proven 20+ goal scorer?

 

[periferal]

The best case scenario with be Lou making a Hamonic type trade with Leddy (value won't be the same). I think you then make a decision regarding if Bailey is worth keeping here (I think so) or trading away.

If you trade Leddy, get picks in return, and sign Hoffman I think that is one of the better cases possible.

100% the best way for Lou to approach the offseason is to shed a big contract or two for less expensive assets and then dip into the FA pool, if Green doesn't resign and you trade Leddy that is a hole that needs to be fixed on D - Even with Pelech back.

 

[periferal]

Sorry for the many spreadsheets, but if the Isles bury Ladd's contract and the Isles sign Hoffman for say 6 AAV and they trade Leddy for picks. I have the team only .6 over a 84.5 cap - if they are able to get Hoffman for just under 6 and Barzal for just under 9 - they are there.

FORWARDS		DEFENSE & GOALIE		BURIED
Barzal	9	Pulock	6.25	Ladd	4.45
Lee	7	Boychuk	6
Eberle	5.5	Dobson	0.925
Nelson	6	Toews	2.5
Beauvillier	2.1	Pelech	1.6
Bailey	5	Mayfield	1.45
Pageau	5	Hickey	2.5
Komarov	3
Cizikas	3.35
Clutterbuck	3.5	Varlamov	5
Johnston	1	Sorokin	0.925
Dal Colle	0.7			TOTAL BURIED	4.45
Bellows	0.894
Hoffman	6
TOTAL F	58.044	TOTAL D & G	27.15	TOTAL w/ Ladd	89.644
				TOTAL w/o Ladd	85.194
				The difference if CAP IS 84.5	-0.694

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Can promise you right now that Mike Hoffman is getting at least 7.5-8M/season. He makes 5.1M now and is one of the most consistent 25-30 goal scorers in the league (and even had a 36 goal year last season).

Jeff Skinner got 9M last summer and guarantee Hoffman's agents are going to be using that as an argument. With 30 teams bidding on him he'll get 7.5M easy if not more.

 

[PWJunior]

Can promise you right now that Mike Hoffman is getting at least 7.5-8M/season. He makes 5.1M now and is one of the most consistent 25-30 goal scorers in the league (and even had a 36 goal year last season).

Jeff Skinner got 9M last summer and guarantee Hoffman's agents are going to be using that as an argument. With 30 teams bidding on him he'll get 7.5M easy if not more.

No thanks at that price.

 

[benedictTavares]

Are you serious? If the deal was Ladd and Bellows for Parise I invent a teleportation system to instantly have them arrive in Minny because I don't want to risk time driving them to the airport.

Ladd is a zero at this point. Bellows has barely shown a pulse. If anyone is happy giving up "who knows what they will become" draft picks for a 3rd line center, then how in the world could anyone be upset giving up "we basically know what they ares" for a proven 20+ goal scorer?

I agree I would have even added to that. I like what I see from Bellows so far but if that is what it costs to get rid of Ladd you do it in a second.

I would even toss in a 3rd or 4th round pick.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

I don't know if the idea is about dumping.

Need @PWJunior 's help on this topic.

 

[periferal]

No thanks at that price.

I understand the hesitancy to give any player 8M or more unless they are truly special, but if Mike Hoffman wants 8M and is willing sign here you almost have to give it to him.

Why do I say this?

Because I don't see another way to get a bonafide 25-30 goal scorer who can play next to Barzal on this team next year for that cap hit or less otherwise. Take a look:

1. The other UFAs who can score goals:

• Taylor Hall - If you look at the Oilers and Devils after they got rid of him there an argument that teams are better without him. Plus this is not a player you can count on to be healthy as he's had a bunch of injuries that have kept him off the ice a lot throughout his career. And after all that...He's still getting surely more than 8M and I'm not even sure he's worth that.
• Tyler Tiffoli - Outside of one 31 goal year, more of a 15-20 goal guy. Could be ok, but he's not as explosive as Hoffman and is it worth to commit another 6M+ to a forward who isn't truly the answer next to Barzal? Also seems like maybe there is something wrong with his game as he should've been mentioned higher up on the trade bait board, but couldn't even garner a 1st round pick as return.
• Evgeni Dadonov - Real interesting situation. Started career in the NHL, then came over to the Panthers, then back to the KHL for 5 years, and now over the last 3 years his goal totals are: 28, 28, and 25 (in 63 games). Is listed at 5'11, but feels smaller. Still dude has some serious talent. Great finisher, but also literally sits in front of the net and scores scrappy goals as well which is so impressive for his size. Also you can literally see him thinking the game as has the puck on his stick in a scoring position - Trying to find a soft spot in a goalie's game before just shooting. Easily one of the most underrated/overlooked players in the league. I would absolutely love to have him, but the risk is that he could go back to the KHL at anytime. Very fascinating to see where he goes and how much he gets.

After that you're talking about very average forwards who are definitely going to get untradable contracts like Grandlund, Craig Smith, Soderberg, Ennis, etc)



2. Finding a 25-30 goal scorer via a trade:

Maybe if Lou can bend space and time he can revisit that Parise/Ladd deal, but even if he can Parise might be more of a 20 goal guy at this point in his career (and a declining one at that). Still I make a deal like that.

Other than that, I only see 3 "blue chip" assets that the Isles have to trade:

• Dobson
• 2021 1st rounder
• Sorokin (and the reality is that being a goalie who's never played here he might not get as much in a deal)

Honestly given his upside, age, and current contract, I'm not trading Dobson unless a true all star is coming back in the deal. The 2021 1st rounder I'd deal, but if a 3rd line center is going for a 1st and 2nd rounder, a legit 30 goal guy is going to require multiple top-end assets...Assets that we don't have anymore.



3. All I know is this...

I know we don't have many draft picks anymore, but Lou and the scouting department must hit on a few of them to help replenish the prospect cupboard for down the line when we need depth players (on cheap contracts) and also more trade chips.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

literally sits in front of the net

What a trooper. Your butt gets cold doing that!

 

[Beacon Isles]

... help address the offense without crippling the defense.

I think the offseason should pretty much be summed up by that phrase.

 

[islesfan186]

Do you really want Barzal on a bridge contract to hit UFA at age 25? He'd get well over 10m in that situation.

You can’t become a UFA until you’re 27 or until you play 7 years in the NHL....so 27 for Barzal anyway

 

[Chardo]

You can’t become a UFA until you’re 27 or until you play 7 years in the NHL....so 27 for Barzal anyway

So he could sign for 3 years and still be RFA after? Why would he do that?

 

[islesfan186]

So he could sign for 3 years and still be RFA after? Why would he do that?

He probably wouldn’t. I’d say the minimum he’d sign for is 4 which would walk him straight to UFA. Or he could sign a 2 year bridge and bet on himself for a fatter pay day on his next deal since his QO couldn’t be any lower than what his previous deal was....at least that’s my understanding of how it works