Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread: Movie Poster Edition VII- "Deadline"

[Paralyzer]

Have you included the money from expiring retentions/buyouts

Yes I did. I'm going off what we got right now. Whether we buyout or trade someone is not what I included.

 

[belair]

They're just a quick reference for how a guy is playing. Most of us have probably watched a guy like Klingberg play like ten shifts this year and maybe noticed him on three of them. The "eye test" is mostly just what you've heard other people say about a player when it comes to guys who aren't on the team you follow.

The charts give you a rough idea how a player has been doing over the past three seasons.

The problem with those charts is that the vast majority of stats being used aren't individual statistics. They're events that occur while that particular player is on the ice, making them line-based metrics. And these events don't happen because that player is on the ice. Hockey is a far more complicated sport than that.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I don’t think you know what analytics are.


This

Yessir I do. They aren’t the absolutes you think they are. But I’ve had this inane conversation a billion times now with the haughty nerds of hockey and it’s like playing chess with a pigeon.

 

[McDNicks17]

The problem with those charts is that the vast majority of stats being used aren't individual statistics. They're events that occur while that particular player is on the ice, making them line-based metrics. And these events don't happen because that player is on the ice. Hockey is a far more complicated sport than that.

Which is fine for something as cursory as the charts are.

Bad players don't play on good lines. Good defensemen aren't on the ice while their team puts up generationally bad numbers.

It gives you a rough idea of how a player is playing.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Which is fine for something as cursory as the charts are.

Bad players don't play on good lines. Good defensemen aren't on the ice while their team puts up generationally bad numbers.

It gives you a rough idea of how a player is playing.

As do eyeballs.

 

[McDNicks17]

As do eyeballs.

How many shifts have you watched Klingberg, for example, play over the past three seasons? How many do you remember?

That's why the charts exist.

 

[Yuke]

Let me know when analytics take over and scouts are no longer needed

 

[McSuper]

Remember how we all thought Eakins was the greatest coach of all time because of his speeches?

Elon Musk is a terrible talker and may be the smartest person on the planet. Some people aren't good public talkers.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Elon Musk is a terrible talker and may be the smartest person on the planet. Some people aren't good public talkers.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No a f***ing chance bro

 

[McDNicks17]

Let me know when analytics take over and scouts are no longer needed

Teams value analytics for a reason. It makes scouting a lot easier.

You're at a massive disadvantage if you're only using one or the other.

 

[Oilhawks]

Teams value analytics for a reason. It makes scouting a lot easier.

You're at a massive disadvantage if you're only using one or the other.

I could be wrong, but aren't the analytics used by teams a fair bit different than the stuff we see in the public?

 

[McDNicks17]

I could be wrong, but aren't the analytics used by teams a fair bit different than the stuff we see in the public?

They have similar models like xG, but yeah, they're mostly using stats that are basically just the eye test quantified.

Stuff like passes into the slot, puck retrievals, passing percentage under pressure, chances after zone entries, etc.

 

[belair]

Which is fine for something as cursory as the charts are.

Bad players don't play on good lines. Good defensemen aren't on the ice while their team puts up generationally bad numbers.

It gives you a rough idea of how a player is playing.

That couldn't be farther from the truth. It's actually very common for below average players to come out smelling like roses because they're fortunate enough to get floated by stronger line support that drive positive results.

I won't say that these stats are completely random. They show trends and line metrics will show that a player is frequently showing up on the negative end of possession and goal differentials. But these conclusions that a depth winger can be perceived as 'elite defensively' or that Klingberg is 'the worst defenseman in the cap era'. They're cringeworthy takes.

The 'elite defensive' winger Rasmus Asplund who received Selke votes last season was just traded to the Predators for a 7th rounder. Teams still realize that these milquetoast players do very little to move the needle.

 

[McDNicks17]

That couldn't be farther from the truth. It's actually very common for below average players to come out smelling like roses because they're fortunate enough to get floated by stronger line support that drive positive results.

I won't say that these stats are completely random. They show trends and line metrics will show that a player is frequently showing up on the negative end of possession and goal differentials. But these conclusions that a depth winger can be perceived as 'elite defensively' or that Klingberg is 'the defenseman in the cap era'. They're cringeworthy takes.

The 'elite defensive' winger Rasmus Asplund who received Selke votes last season was just traded to the Predators for a 7th rounder. Teams still realize that these milquetoast players do very little to move the needle.

Give one example of guy who had that happen to them for three straight seasons. Bonus points if it doesn't involve McDavid.

Johnny Gaudreau got a Selke vote too haha. Homer 4th place votes aren't saying much. Asplund had good numbers as a rookie and absolutely terrible numbers this year. I don't really see what you're getting at with that example.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No a f***ing chance bro

I know he’s not the smartest in the world but are you suggesting he is not smart?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I know he’s not the smartest in the world but are you suggesting he is not smart?

Yes, I am suggesting the guy who blew $44B because he's dramatically insecure is not smart. He was just born rich.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Yes, I am suggesting the guy who blew $44B because he's dramatically insecure is not smart. He was just born rich.

What? He wasn’t born rich at all.

Are you really saying the self made richest person in the world is stupid?

Being insecure has nothing to do with anything.

 

[foshizzle]

I am not mad.

Fair enough as reply, my post was not very nice and I generalised too much. Sorry for that.

Class post, LaGu. I for one definitely appreciate it. Apologies in my behalf for any sarcasm in mine

Yes I did. I'm going off what we got right now. Whether we buyout or trade someone is not what I included.

Got it. That’s a pretty good situation we are in then. We still have options with Campbell, Yamo, Foegele. Also, if the cap goes up more than a million (Bettman did leave the door open for that) we will be in a great situation to be cup contenders the rest of McDrai’s contracts

 

[CycloneSweep]

That couldn't be farther from the truth. It's actually very common for below average players to come out smelling like roses because they're fortunate enough to get floated by stronger line support that drive positive results.

I won't say that these stats are completely random. They show trends and line metrics will show that a player is frequently showing up on the negative end of possession and goal differentials. But these conclusions that a depth winger can be perceived as 'elite defensively' or that Klingberg is 'the defenseman in the cap era'. They're cringeworthy takes.

The 'elite defensive' winger Rasmus Asplund who received Selke votes last season was just traded to the Predators for a 7th rounder. Teams still realize that these milquetoast players do very little to move the needle.

Usually with players like that, you can also look at their stats away from certain players. One of the reason the analytics community liked Pulju so much last year is that McDavid produced more chances and allowed less when Pulju was with him. That wasn’t quite the case this year but just using it for an example.

That’s why looking at trends are so important and often guys like Jfresh base it off a 3 year rolling average.

Klingberg has been bad defensively everywhere and with everyone. That’s a sign that he is in fact, a bad defensive player. It could also be a sign that he plays way more than he should. Klingberg as a top 4 d gets blown up defensively. Now if he was on the third pair with sheltered minutes I’m sure it would go up.

The analytics are good and honestly are better than the eye test for the majority of hockey fans because there is so much that we don’t see or don’t realize it’s effective. Like Ceci. People think Ceci gets blown up against tough competition and is getting wreck d when in fact he isn’t. That’s not an objective thing, it’s the truth.

The eye test says he sucks and allows more goals when he is in the ice but it’s simply not true.

Again these are tools and are based to be a snapshot on how the player is performing. You can then start watching the player to better shape your judgement.

For most analytics the following is true. The guys at the 100% are the best in the league (McDavid is there for example) guys who are at the bottom (Jack Johnson) are bad hockey players. Now guys in the middle for the most part there is tons of nuance and deep dives into their numbers better shape it.

Too many people treat them like they are evil and wrong when it’s a tool.

 

[foshizzle]

Yessir I do. They aren’t the absolutes you think they are. But I’ve had this inane conversation a billion times now with the haughty nerds of hockey and it’s like playing chess with a pigeon.

First point- you completely messed up the playing chess with a pigeon saying. Second, you are the pigeon in this scenario. Analytics, no matter what business or industry- are absolute. A shot on goal is a shot on goal. A high danger chance is a high danger chance. They are simply a record of what happened on the ice.

What you are questioning using previous action to predict future trends- in which case you may have somebody that breaks a trend line.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

His father owned 50% of a Diamond mine. That’s not poor either.

They were emerald mines in his time in apartheid South Africa. He was VERY rich growing up.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

They were emerald mines in his time in apartheid South Africa. He was VERY rich growing up.

He didn’t use his parents money though.

Edit : I’m not some super Elon fan btw haha I just think he’s very smart. Let’s agree to disagree.

 

[Davo Ikinzom]

He didn’t use his parents money though.

In 1995, Musk, his brother Kimbal, and Greg Kouri founded Zip2. Errol Musk provided them with $28,000 in funding.

Okay

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

Okay

That doesn’t sound like billions of dollars that people often imply.

I hate having to defend Musk but his family wasn’t stinking rich. His dad had a minority stake in an emerald mine and good luck finding out how much he made from that investment.

Elon made a series of incredible investments on his own, can’t deny that.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Okay

Lol I stand corrected. Relax. Still impressive what he did with that. It’s not like he started with millions.

He’s not dumb that’s all I’m trying to say.