Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread

[guymez]

In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.

Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey.

Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.

PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.

Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.

But the top five New Jersey Devil scorers had 31, 27, 25, 24, and 22 even strength points. That's a combined 129 points. The top five Montreal Canadien scorers excluding Subban had 58, 44, 39, 37, and 34 even strength points. That's a combined 212 points.

And what impact did Larsson have on their GF%? Well, when they were on the ice together, 31's GF% went from 50% to 63.2%, 27's went from 43.6% to 66.7%, 25's went from 55% to 61.5%, 24's went from 36.1% to 45.0%, and 55.2% to... 53.8%. Thanks Jagr.

Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.

And Subban? 58's went from 75% to 61%, 44's went from 51.1% to 51.4%, 39's went from 56.8% to 60.%, 37's went from 69% to 57.1%, and 34's went from 48.8% to 65.9%.

Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. This would suggest that there was nobody on the Devils save for Jagr who could win the war on ice without Larsson. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.

None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.

In sum, this was complicated and took forever.

Very much appreciate the effort you put into that post.

I hope my previous post was clear enough to illustrate that I am not down on Larsson. I simply need to see him become a solid 2 way #2 dman on this team before I will even begin to consider him having #1 potential.
Aside from his shakey offensive history (which may or may not be situational) he just doesnt skate well enough or has a big enough point shot for me to consider it.

If I were to bet money I would suggest that being a 2 way #2 dman is his ceiling. There is still a big IF in that projection though.

Quite honestly if Larsson can become a 2 way #2 dman I think that every Oiler fan should be thrilled.

 

[McOvechking]

In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.

Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey.

Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.

PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.

Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.

But the top five New Jersey Devil scorers had 31, 27, 25, 24, and 22 even strength points. That's a combined 129 points. The top five Montreal Canadien scorers excluding Subban had 58, 44, 39, 37, and 34 even strength points. That's a combined 212 points, which is 64% higher.

And what impact did Larsson have on their GF%? Well, when they were on the ice together, 31's GF% went from 50% to 63.2%, 27's went from 43.6% to 66.7%, 25's went from 55% to 61.5%, 24's went from 36.1% to 45.0%, and 22's 55.2% to... 53.8%. Thanks Jagr.

Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.

And Subban? 58's went from 75% to 61%, 44's went from 51.1% to 51.4%, 39's went from 56.8% to 60.%, 37's went from 69% to 57.1%, and 34's went from 48.8% to 65.9%.

Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. This would suggest that there was nobody on the Devils save for Jagr who could win the war on ice without Larsson. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.

None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.

In sum, this was complicated and took forever. If only I could genuinely multiply Adam Larsson's 0.33 by 1.64 (as per the top five scorers aggregate % difference) to say that Larsson would have put up 0.54 EVP/game for the Canadiens in 2014/15. But I can assure you that Larsson's EVP/game would be a damned sight better than 0.33 were he swapped with Subban for that season.

This post is going to get overlooked because of its length, but Jesus, well done. That's some good stuff right there.

Hopefully we can soon end this myth that Larsson is offensively incompetent.

 

[Panda Bear]

Very much appreciate the effort you put into that post.

I hope my previous post was clear enough to illustrate that I am not down on Larsson. I simply need to see him become a solid 2 way #2 dman on this team before I will even begin to consider him having #1 potential.

If I were to bet money I would suggest that being a 2 way #2 dman is his ceiling. There is still a big IF in that projection though.

Quite honestly if Larsson can become a 2 way #2 dman I think that every Oiler fan should be thrilled.

I'm just starting off much higher on Larsson than you. You're more than welcome to join the bandwagon later in the season.

 

[guymez]

I'm just starting off much higher on Larsson than you. You're more than welcome to join the bandwagon later in the season.

Fair enough.

I just need enough solid evidence to allow me to overlook his history. If Larsson had more tools in his tool box then I think I would also be more open to the possibility.

So for me there is a remote chance that Larsson could be a #1 dman. I am not counting on it at all but if I am wrong then that would be a good thing.

 

[Fourier]

In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.

Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey.

Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.

PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.

Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.

But the top five New Jersey Devil scorers had 31, 27, 25, 24, and 22 even strength points. That's a combined 129 points. The top five Montreal Canadien scorers excluding Subban had 58, 44, 39, 37, and 34 even strength points. That's a combined 212 points, which is 64% higher.

And what impact did Larsson have on their GF%? Well, when they were on the ice together, 31's GF% went from 50% to 63.2%, 27's went from 43.6% to 66.7%, 25's went from 55% to 61.5%, 24's went from 36.1% to 45.0%, and 22's 55.2% to... 53.8%. Thanks Jagr.

Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.

And Subban? 58's went from 75% to 61%, 44's went from 51.1% to 51.4%, 39's went from 56.8% to 60.%, 37's went from 69% to 57.1%, and 34's went from 48.8% to 65.9%.

Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. This would suggest that there was nobody on the Devils save for Jagr who could win the war on ice without Larsson. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.

None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.

In sum, this was complicated and took forever. If only I could genuinely multiply Adam Larsson's 0.33 by 1.64 (as per the top five scorers aggregate % difference) to say that Larsson would have put up 0.54 EVP/game for the Canadiens in 2014/15. But I can assure you that Larsson's EVP/game would be a damned sight better than 0.33 were he swapped with Subban for that season.

Beautifully done.

I love the measured approach you took on this post. Some solid evidence but you did not make any definitive statements that your numbers would not really support.

 

[McWeber]

In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.

Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey.

Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.

PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.

Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.

But the top five New Jersey Devil scorers had 31, 27, 25, 24, and 22 even strength points. That's a combined 129 points. The top five Montreal Canadien scorers excluding Subban had 58, 44, 39, 37, and 34 even strength points. That's a combined 212 points, which is 64% higher.

And what impact did Larsson have on their GF%? Well, when they were on the ice together, 31's GF% went from 50% to 63.2%, 27's went from 43.6% to 66.7%, 25's went from 55% to 61.5%, 24's went from 36.1% to 45.0%, and 22's 55.2% to... 53.8%. Thanks Jagr.

Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.

And Subban? 58's went from 75% to 61%, 44's went from 51.1% to 51.4%, 39's went from 56.8% to 60.%, 37's went from 69% to 57.1%, and 34's went from 48.8% to 65.9%.

Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. This would suggest that there was nobody on the Devils save for Jagr who could win the war on ice without Larsson. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.

None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.

In sum, this was complicated and took forever. If only I could genuinely multiply Adam Larsson's 0.33 by 1.64 (as per the top five scorers aggregate % difference) to say that Larsson would have put up 0.54 EVP/game for the Canadiens in 2014/15. But I can assure you that Larsson's EVP/game would be a damned sight better than 0.33 were he swapped with Subban for that season.

I hope it translates, maybe Chia found a hidden gem stud in the making. Thanks for putting in the work.

 

[Jet Walters]

Fair enough.

I just need enough solid evidence to allow me to overlook his history. If Larsson had more tools in his tool box then I think I would also be more open to the possibility.

So for me there is a remote chance that Larsson could be a #1 dman. I am not counting on it at all but if I am wrong then that would be a good thing.

Panda Bear just used the power of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel to give you some solid evidence. That was a good read, props PB. It makes me more confident that a defender with the skill set of Larsson might be a perfect match for what we need, both in the defensive zone and also getting the puck up to our forwards efficiently. Plus the guy is 23 only years old. Davidson and even Oesterle are older than him.

 

[Nugey McNugeson]

Great work Panda Bear! Hopefully with a better offensive supporting cast on the oilers, Larsson can put up some points

 

[Cloned]

Looking more and more like Shanahan for Pronger v.2.

Larsson isn't as good as Pronger, but Hall isn't as good as Shanahan either.

It is possible for both teams to win this trade, and I think that's what will happen here.

 

[guymez]

Panda Bear just used the power of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel to give you some solid evidence. That was a good read, props PB. It makes me more confident that a defender with the skill set of Larsson might be a perfect match for what we need, both in the defensive zone and also getting the puck up to our forwards efficiently. Plus the guy is 23 only years old. Davidson and even Oesterle are older than him.

As I clearly stated.
I dont think that Larsson has the tools in his tool box to be a #1.

 

[CupofOil]

I agree. I posted some info in another thread regarding why Vlasic wasn't a good comp for Larsson.

Larsson really has to overcome his history of being offensively challenged. Thats exactly why I dont buy any of this nonsense about him being a potential #1 dman.
He is going to get a good opportunity to prove that he has some offence in his game. I am going to be interested to see if he can elevate him game to at least being a solid two way #2 dman.

Stay tuned.

Vlasic has been a 20-25 point Dman throughout the majority of his career (on an elite offensive team) who is elite defensively. Larsson had 24 points in 64 games just 2 seasons ago on one of the poorest offensive teams in the league and he's only 23 so why is Vlasic such a poor comparison?

Larsson's weakness is his shot hence the low goal totals but he has an excellent outlet pass, it's an underrated part of his game. I could see him putting up a few 30-35 point seasons with the firepower the Oilers have up front racking up a bunch of assists. Klefbom really is the ideal partner for him because he has a big shot and could be the beneficiary of Larsson's passing ability and Larsson could give him the ability to jump up in the play more knowing he has that defensive cushion back there.
I've always thought that KLef would work best with a shutdown Dman, a Klefbom-Hamonic pairing was my big hope going into the offseason and I think Klefbom-Larsson could be even better.

 

[Narnia]

As I clearly stated.
I dont think that Larsson has the tools in his tool box to be a #1.

Hall isn't as good as people think he is either.

 

[Jet Walters]

Looking more and more like Shanahan for Pronger v.2.

Larsson isn't as good as Pronger, but Hall isn't as good as Shanahan either.

It is possible for both teams to win this trade, and I think that's what will happen here.

Both teams got what they needed, but the Oilers will have an easier time replacing Hall than the Devil's will Larsson. Heck, we already signed a guy who puts up top line LW numbers and brings the intangibles this team was starving for. Top pair/potential top pair RHD don't move often.

 

[Cerebral]

Looking more and more like Shanahan for Pronger v.2.

Larsson isn't as good as Pronger, but Hall isn't as good as Shanahan either.

It is possible for both teams to win this trade, and I think that's what will happen here.

I am moderately optimistic that we'll end up doing okay in this deal. Even if we end up losing the deal in terms of overall value, I'm confident Larsson will be a strong #2 defenceman for us over the next decade.

It was comforting to see how many Devils fans were legitimately upset to lose Larsson. I don't think we'll get an offensive juggernaut but I do think a lot of Larsson's offensive "struggles" last season can be attributed to usage. The guy was basically force-fed a diet of defensive zone starts with zero powerplay time. I see him as a 30-40 point guy in his prime (similar to Hamonic and Vlasic) who will play 22+ minutes a night of solid, defensive hockey and 2nd powerplay time. Knock on wood but I'm really happy that he played all 82 games last season.

 

[booyakasha]

Hall isn't as good as people think he is either.

he's better.

 

[t0nedeff]

Both teams got what they needed, but the Oilers will have an easier time replacing Hall than the Devil's will Larsson. Heck, we already signed a guy who puts up top line LW numbers and brings the intangibles this team was starving for. Top pair/potential top pair RHD don't move often.

Lets see how far Hall can take the Devils when the only legitimate top 4 D man on that team now is Greene and he's never been much of a puck mover or point getter. I can't wait for the season to get underway so I don't have to see post after post about how we lost this trade because Larsson isn't a number 1. I foresee Larsson having a way bigger impact on the team game than Hall had on last seasons lineup.

 

[booyakasha]

I am moderately optimistic that we'll end up doing okay in this deal. Even if we end up losing the deal in terms of overall value, I'm confident Larsson will be a strong #2 defenceman for us over the next decade.

It was comforting to see how many Devils fans were legitimately upset to lose Larsson. I don't think we'll get an offensive juggernaut but I do think a lot of Larsson's offensive "struggles" last season can be attributed to usage. The guy was basically force-fed a diet of defensive zone starts with zero powerplay time. I see him as a 30-40 point guy in his prime (similar to Hamonic and Vlasic) who will play 22+ minutes a night of solid, defensive hockey and 2nd powerplay time. Knock on wood but I'm really happy that he played all 82 games last season.

maybe this trade will be the "TSN turning point" of the rebuild.
in a few years, when this club is a powerhouse, ..the nefarious Hall-Larsson trade will be in Oilers lore, up there with the Gretzky trade?...one was the beginning of the end, this will be the end of the rebuild.

 

[Narnia]

he's better.

Hall is overrated and never once scored 30 goals.

 

[McOvechking]

I'm throwing up a new Hall/Larsson trade thread cause this is getting derailed.

 

[guymez]

Hall isn't as good as people think he is either.

Why do you have to bash Hall?

 

[guymez]

Vlasic has been a 20-25 point Dman throughout the majority of his career (on an elite offensive team) who is elite defensively. Larsson had 24 points in 64 games just 2 seasons ago on one of the poorest offensive teams in the league and he's only 23 so why is Vlasic such a poor comparison?

Larsson's weakness is his shot hence the low goal totals but he has an excellent outlet pass, it's an underrated part of his game. I could see him putting up a few 30-35 point seasons with the firepower the Oilers have up front racking up a bunch of assists. Klefbom really is the ideal partner for him because he has a big shot and could be the beneficiary of Larsson's passing ability and Larsson could give him the ability to jump up in the play more knowing he has that defensive cushion back there.
I've always thought that KLef would work best with a shutdown Dman, a Klefbom-Hamonic pairing was my big hope going into the offseason and I think Klefbom-Larsson could be even better.

I agree with the bolded. That sort of underscores my contention that Larsson isnt #1 material. His skating could be better as well.

Doesnt mean that he cant be an effective player though.

 

[gordonhught]

he's better.

No. You are wrong. He is a "driver".

 

[McFlyingV]

I actually don't think Larsson's shot is a weakness. His weakness is he doesn't use it enough (partially because he doesn't get opportunities to, and partially because he defers the puck to his teammates too much), and he doesn't get it off quick enough. Whether he can correct those, your guess is as good as mine. Maybe he doesn't have the ability, or maybe he hasn't been given enough of a chance to gain confidence in that part of his game.

I'm leaving my hopes on him lower at a very good 2-way #2 simply because I don't know if his shot is elite enough to make up for his non-elite skating. Either way I'll be happy with him as that because I think Klefbom still has the offensive potential to break out as a 40+D similar to a lesser version of Josi.

 

[Narnia]

Why do you have to bash Hall?

Why do people bash Selera?

 

[booyakasha]

Why do people bash Selera?

because he's not as good as people think he is and he is overrated.