Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread
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Jamie
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Jet Walters
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- May 15, 2013
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Sounds like someone bought a Hall Jersey last Monday. Bad timing bro. I cheer for the logo on the front of the jersey and not the name on the back. Oilers are a better team than they were a week and a half ago without a doubt.
People in this thread saying that Davidson is better than Sekera. Saying that Davidson is already better than Sekera. Stuff like that and it makes me pissed.
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Jamie
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booyakasha
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Jamie
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In moments, sure, but if you were to offer every GM one year of Sekera or Davidson, and one year only, both for the same cost of $1 million, I'd be surprised if a single GM picked Davidson. Being good in moments doesn't make you good. Not to take away from Davidson as he looked great at times, but I don't think that's where the smart money is for the duration of a season.
Cam98
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- Jun 24, 2009
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booyakasha
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Meh, I'm not impressed with Sekera....more often than not, I would refer to him as "Suckera" in GDT's
The guy can't shoot, bad pass, and is infuriatingly slow at decision making...I hope he makes me eat my words this season, ...and he probably will as he will not be getting 1st pai mins.
I wish they didn't have to protect Sekera or find a way to trade him tbh. Overpaid UFA as they all are.
McFlyingV
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You're right its too early to know for sure, but I don't get why so many (not you) are so quick to assume that Davidson will regress. Its not like he came up and just played well for a stretch like a lot of call-ups do. He was here from the start of the year, looked pretty meh at first but you could see his game grow in different areas throughout the season. You could see his reads on plays steadily improve, his physicality and positioning steadily improved, and his offensive/passing game was also steadily improving at the time he got injured. There's very little to suggest he is just a flash in the pan when you could clearly see his progression throughout the year. He went from a lost puppy who was constantly behind the play to the confident "steady eddie" who was always making the right plays. I'd easily bet on this kid becoming a very good top 4 D than I would on him fizzling out as a bottom pairing D. He's already a very strong kid who works his ass off and I only expect that to continue into the future. I know some of the media were impressed with him when he came into camp considerably more muscular than in previous years.
I hope Davidson gets traded. I can't believe how overrated people are overrating Davidson. He's not that good ubut people would rather have Davidson. I guess people want the new toy and want to get rid of anyone that isn't a new toy.
Davidson wouldn't have gotten that much ice time if Klefbom hadn't been injured. If people want to call Klefbom injury-prone than Davidson is even more injury-prone. He got injured 3 different times. That's injury-prone then.
McFlyingV
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Why would we trade Davidson, a cheap player who is trending up and not well recognized around the league. I'd rather keep both of them. I hardly see how Davidson is a new toy, he's not flashy, but he sure is steady and effective. The team took a noticeable dip in performance when he got injured, much like the dip they took when Klefbom got injured.
ResilientBeast
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Why are we tearing down our own players who hopefully play a pivotal role in our future
McShogun99
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Davidson has been making good progress and was looking like a legitimate 2nd pairing defenceman before his last season ending injury. It's a small sample size but he was looking impressive.
Raoul Duke
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- Feb 21, 2010
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Some people in this thread called Davidson better than Sekera and want to trade Sekera and called him overpaid. Davidson is not Better than Sekera and might never be.
McFlyingV
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Well you don't have to worry about that because Sekera has a NMC for 3 more years. How about we just keep both and move on.
Jamie
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So because some fans enjoy Davidson you hope he get's traded. Your logic is lost on me.
Del Preston
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- Mar 8, 2013
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Mr Positive
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there was a stretch of maybe 15 games where that was the case, late in the season. In that time, it was enough for me to say you might be right. I'm a big fan of Sekera though, and at that time Fayne had resurrected his playing ability and the two of them were an effective shutdown pairing. Maybe that allowed Davidson to ramp up his game. Davidson showed offensive potential, more than I've ever seen Sekera have on any team he was on (from what I recall of him). He showed consistent smart passing and a very good point shot.
One big thing was once we put Davidson on the right side out of necessity. He did very well, and at times he seemed even better in that spot.
That's not to say I think he's a better option than getting a more established guy like Barrie. He probably would be better than Wisniewski, but only if continues where he left off.
Panda Bear
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- Apr 2, 2010
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In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.
Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey.
Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.
PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.
Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.
But the top five New Jersey Devil scorers had 31, 27, 25, 24, and 22 even strength points. That's a combined 129 points. The top five Montreal Canadien scorers excluding Subban had 58, 44, 39, 37, and 34 even strength points. That's a combined 212 points, which is 64% higher.
And what impact did Larsson have on their GF%? Well, when they were on the ice together, 31's GF% went from 50% to 63.2%, 27's went from 43.6% to 66.7%, 25's went from 55% to 61.5%, 24's went from 36.1% to 45.0%, and 22's 55.2% to... 53.8%. Thanks Jagr.
Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.
And Subban? 58's went from 75% to 61%, 44's went from 51.1% to 51.4%, 39's went from 56.8% to 60.%, 37's went from 69% to 57.1%, and 34's went from 48.8% to 65.9%.
Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. This would suggest that there was nobody on the Devils save for Jagr who could win the war on ice without Larsson. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.
None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.
In sum, this was complicated and took forever. If only I could genuinely multiply Adam Larsson's 0.33 by 1.64 (as per the top five scorers aggregate % difference) to say that Larsson would have put up 0.54 EVP/game for the Canadiens in 2014/15. But I can assure you that Larsson's EVP/game would be a damned sight better than 0.33 were he swapped with Subban for that season.
It's also not a very honest statement from a guy who has been in the league long enough to know that most GMs shutdown and go on vacation in August.
The last arbitration meeting held around the end of July will likely solidify what the Oiler roster will look like going into next year.
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