Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: "Wrong Side of Heaven, Righteous Side of (Salary Cap) Hell"

[McTonyBrar]

I'm saying that at worst, you have to take the part that those guys were overpaid by, not the entire contract. Turris, I would count the whole thing because he was a major bust, but the other two are NHL players. But let's look at it in context, and not just the numbers. Kassian was overpaid a bit to keep him from testing free agency. Then he regressed. It sucks. Should Holland have let Kassian go? Maybe, he's certainly not worth his full contract the way he has played recently. But given what he produced the year prior, and in the playoffs, and the fact that he checks a lot of other boxes - fast, hard hitting, enforcer. I mean, he was a 15 goal, 30 point player with size, speed and a mean streak. For the last year he has had injury issues and possibly motivation issues that affected that. I would suggest though, that despite your assertion that it is lighting "3.2M on fire", it is lighting 1 - 1.2M on fire in terms of an overpayment. Chaisson was a 20 goal, 38 point guy the year he got his extension. Is 2M too much for him? Yes. Yes it is. Was I mad that he was re-signed? Yes, but only because it meant that the other free agents either chose to play elsewhere or wanted too much to play here. I would say he was a 1M overpay, so sure, that's possibly lighting some cash on fire. But, you need to remember that Chaisson was only signed because there was nobody else there to fill that role. 2M is also a fairly inexpensive player to begin with, and he contributed about as much as a $2M player should. It isn't the $2M guys that hurt this team. It's the lack of quality $4M guys in the middle six. I would say the much larger issue this past year was the fact that Holland was tied up with zero inflation dollars to work with. We let decent players go for nothing due to no inflation. We did find a good bargain in Barrie, but we were so restricted by that lack of cap space that Holland had to go digging in the leftovers bin again. This isn't because he signed Chaisson and Kassian. This is because the economic plans for these teams was thrown into a blender and basically destroyed. It just sucks for us that it meant no decent depth signings last offseason. You keep ignoring the biggest factor here.

It's funny how majority of us forget that there is actual logic to decisions being made. Some of us think we're in land far, far away where things like the economy, inflation, the attitude a player has towards certain teams etc don't matter (this includes me)

 

[MessierII]

Having two of the best players in the world in their primes running your PP goes a long way.

What does that have to do with penalty killing? Penalty killing absolutely sewered us from 2017-19 through 2018-19.

 

[belair]

What model is that? I'd love to hear it.

I haven't quite locked that down, because you always seem to have an issue with everything. Yet you downplay the importance of things like special teams. You're a pessimist.

But my takeaway is that the Canadiens are an example that a team doesn't have to be good in the regular season to be competitive in the playoffs.

Another takeaway from these playoffs....

Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev/Savard
Pelech/Pulock, Leddy/Mayfield
Chiarot/Weber, Edmundson/Petry
Martinez/Pietrangelo, Theodore

You need more than one pairing that can eat minutes. They don't have to be superstars.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The correct amount to have spent on those players in 2020-21 is zero dollars.

Wrong. The only one of those three players that brings nothing to the table is Turris. Chaisson as a short term contract at $2.1M was fine when we signed him. A slight overpay, but for one of those two years, he wasn't preventing us from bringing anyone in because we already struck out at free agency. And if we hadn't, we would be in even more trouble now, most of the wingers available that day were overpaid. Then the next year, again, it was the flat cap that screwed us. Not Chaisson's fault. Kassian is overpaid but when motivated is still a good enough grinder in the bottom six. The issue isn't his play, its his expectations due to his contract. Being overpaid doesn't make him worthless.

 

[Soundwave]

The one thing I will say is that I believe the forward depth issue is completely overblown. Our defense needs a significant add this off-season. Because the team's inability to roll two reliable pairings for much of the past two seasons has been a significant hurdle to the team at even strength. In the playoffs it's even more important.

Losing Klefbom hurt a lot.

The forward core that couldn't piss a drop of offence in game 1 and 2 putting themselves behind the 8 ball and completely wiping out their home ice advantage? This was against a defensively mediocre team like Winnipeg, against an actual good defensive team they probably would get blanked for 3+ games.

That forward core is no where near good enough. It's two players and the support players are so poor that we have to keep going back to McDavid + Draisaitl on one line to have even one reliable scoring line.

The forwards as a whole suck and can are very easy to game plan against for a playoff round. The Habs, Leafs, and Jets all were able to just down this forward group successfully for 2-3 game stretches at a time, every team from now on in a playoff round will study exactly that when going into a playoff series against us.

The book is out on this version of the team, if they ever want to actually win a playoff round sometime they are going to have to significantly improve all aspects of it and that includes the top 6 that constantly falls apart and causes Tippett to run back to the 1 line McDrai security blanket.

 

[ManofSteel55]

It's funny how majority of us forget that there is actual logic to decisions being made. Some of us think we're in land far, far away where things like the economy, inflation, the attitude a player has towards certain teams etc don't matter (this includes me)

It's easy just to look in the rear view mirror and say "god, this guy didn't earn his contract at all, what a garbage signing", and blame the GM instead of blaming the player, or even realizing that "damn, this career limiting injury couldn't have been predicted". Holland's job the last two years was to try to find some cheap depth that could help this team. Chaisson did that for most of his career here, but we need an upgrade. Kassian was that up until this last season. Who knows if he returns to being someone better. And of course, for every "durr, Kassian" post we get, we should have a "hey, thumbs up on finding Archibald for cheap", but we don't. Even when we look at the improved PK, even when Archie is a big part of it being so good.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The forward core that couldn't piss a drop of offence in game 1 and 2 putting themselves behind the 8 ball and completely wiping out their home ice advantage? This was against a defensively mediocre team like Winnipeg, against an actual good defensive team they probably would get blanked for 3+ games.

That forward core is no where near good enough. It's two players and the support players are so poor that we have to keep going back to McDavid + Draisaitl on one line to have even one reliable scoring line.

The forwards as a whole suck and can are very easy to game plan against for a playoff round. The Habs, Leafs, and Jets all were able to just down this forward group successfully for 2-3 game stretches at a time, every team from now on in a playoff round will study exactly that when going into a playoff series against us.

The book is out on this version of the team, if they ever want to actually win a playoff round sometime they are going to have to significantly improve all aspects of it and that includes the top 6 that constantly falls apart and causes Tippett to run back to the 1 line McDrai security blanket.

That's a whole lot of negativity to tell us what this board already knows - that this Oilers lineup needs help at forward. We all know that. We need two scoring wingers, we need a 3C, and we need some grit and energy. A 50% turnover wouldn't be out of the question (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Pulujarvi, Archibald, McLeod being the 6 of 12 ideally. Maybe Yamamoto)

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I mean they did have their most successful season overall though lol

And how did the other seasons go?

 

[Little Fury]

I'm saying that at worst, you have to take the part that those guys were overpaid by, not the entire contract. Turris, I would count the whole thing because he was a major bust, but the other two are NHL players. But let's look at it in context, and not just the numbers. Kassian was overpaid a bit to keep him from testing free agency. Then he regressed. It sucks. Should Holland have let Kassian go? Maybe, he's certainly not worth his full contract the way he has played recently. But given what he produced the year prior, and in the playoffs, and the fact that he checks a lot of other boxes - fast, hard hitting, enforcer. I mean, he was a 15 goal, 30 point player with size, speed and a mean streak. For the last year he has had injury issues and possibly motivation issues that affected that. I would suggest though, that despite your assertion that it is lighting "3.2M on fire", it is lighting 1 - 1.2M on fire in terms of an overpayment. Chaisson was a 20 goal, 38 point guy the year he got his extension. Is 2M too much for him? Yes. Yes it is. Was I mad that he was re-signed? Yes, but only because it meant that the other free agents either chose to play elsewhere or wanted too much to play here. I would say he was a 1M overpay, so sure, that's possibly lighting some cash on fire. But, you need to remember that Chaisson was only signed because there was nobody else there to fill that role. 2M is also a fairly inexpensive player.

I take issue with a few things here, like Kassian didn't regress after his contract, he's always been an inconsistent player prone to long stretches of lethargy and that's why tons of people took issue with his contract at the time. I'm not sur ehow management missed all the red flags, but they did. Chiasson is...fine, but another guy whose results were inflated, and again, management missed that.

But the larger issue here is they always have the option of not signing those players, replacing them with randos and using the the savings to get players who do move the needle.

To the next point, then:

It isn't the $2M guys that hurt this team. It's the lack of quality $4M guys in the middle six. I would say the much larger issue this past year was the fact that Holland was tied up with zero inflation dollars to work with. We let decent players go for nothing due to no inflation. We did find a good bargain in Barrie, but we were so restricted by that lack of cap space that Holland had to go digging in the leftovers bin again. This isn't because he signed Chaisson and Kassian. This is because the economic plans for these teams was thrown into a blender and basically destroyed. It just sucks for us that it meant no decent depth signings last offseason. You keep ignoring the biggest factor here.

If I take your numbers for Kassian and Chiasson's overpays and add in Turris (who you'll agree isn't worth a penny of his contract), you get $3.85M so maybe that can shed a little light on the opportunity costs these small overpays represent.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Our forward depth issue is relatively overblown but it still has a massive gaping hole at 3c. We are running 2 NHL 4th lines. We absolutely need a solid 3c so that McDrai don't have to spend the start of their shifts getting out of the zone all the time. We don't need massive improvements at forward sure, but we need a bottom 6 that can at least spend far less time in their own zone than they already do. Which imo requires a legit 3c and a middle 6 winger that can either play 2nd line to push a guy like Yamamoto down or to play on that third line.

Imho we need 4 forwards. 3 middle 6 wingers and a 3c. If Nuge walks we need to replace him too.

A forward makeup of

Blank - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - Blank
Blank - Blank - Yamamoto

Is fine, ideally one of those left wingers is a bit older/not signed long so if a prospect excels we don't have a large contract to move quick.

At defense we need a legit #3 left d.

Forward at depth is certainly an issue. Your chart shows one third of a top nine as blank with Nugent Hopkins pencilled in who could be gone. McDavid was in on almost 60% of all team goals and the Oilers lost a coin flip playoff series with Jets superior quality depth forwards (& return to Vezina form goaltending) the difference. Elite PP helped mask secondary scoring issue.

The forward mix requires both scoring and changing the mix to add high compete, size and tenacity. Now, I do think the forward mix is easiest to fix and agree that a quality 3C is part of the priority fix. Ideally Yamamoto is bumped to third line energy guy. Upside here is a supply glut of depth player options with the stalled Covid Cap.

I do see defense being a bigger challenge in that I don't see a right D lineup of Bear, Bouchard and Larssen being experienced and good enough short-term (1-2 years) on a team trying to lurch out of entry playoff level status. Add uncertainty at 2LD which is a big hole to potentially fix and finding a quality 1A goaltender which I think needs to be done. The reshape of this team is going to take precision moves likely using free agency, trade, and buy-outs (Neal and Koskinen) . Quality depth at forward, d and in net has been the recipe in this year's playoffs. Holland has a lot to do imo.

 

[McJadeddog]

Stauffer just said it wouldn’t surprise him if Hyman resigned in Toronto

and that it wouldn’t surprise him if Hall signs in Boston.


That second part pisses me off. But I stand by what Gazzola said

I expect both of these things to happen (Hyman in TO and Hall in Boston). Reason # 28973 we'd be exceptionally foolish for letting RNH walk, unless his contract demands are ridiculous.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I take issue with a few things here, like Kassian didn't regress after his contract, he's always been an inconsistent player prone to long stretches of lethargy and that's why tons of people took issue with his contract at the time. I'm not sur ehow management missed all the red flags, but they did. Chiasson is...fine, but another guy whose results were inflated, and again, management missed that.

But the larger issue here is they always have the option of not signing those players, replacing them with randos and using the the savings to get players who do move the needle.

To the next point, then:

If I take your numbers for Kassian and Chiasson's overpays and add in Turris (who you'll agree isn't worth a penny of his contract), you get $3.85M so maybe that can shed a little light on the opportunity costs these small overpays represent.

You're wrong about Chaisson here. Chaisson wasn't re-signed until all of the other options available in free agency were gone. It was a "well, we missed on our targets, we'll just bring back the guy we know can chip in a bit". Not a big deal there at all.

Find me one team that doesn't have 3.85M in overpays somewhere in the lineup. $3.85M to these three guys is a minor issue compared to the other issues you are skating over. Like Koskinen (not Holland) and Neal (not Holland and better buyout than what Holland got here with). Those are the big problem contracts here.

 

[McDNicks17]

The one thing I will say is that I believe the forward depth issue is completely overblown. Our defense needs a significant add this off-season. Because the team's inability to roll two reliable pairings for much of the past two seasons has been a significant hurdle to the team at even strength. In the playoffs it's even more important.

Losing Klefbom hurt a lot.

Yup. Larsson and Russell/Lagesson were really good defensively, but they were also one of the worst pairings in the league at creating chances.

Larsson saw a huge boost in metrics with just the addition of Kulikov. A solid top4 guy to pair with Larsson would go a long way in helping the secondary scoring.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

And how did the other seasons go?

Not great lol but funny enough the boys were golfing basically same time anyways.

 

[Paralyzer]

I came here to talk about potential rumors and proposals to be better, not talk trash about Holland and the Management. Must be in the wrong thread. I'm sorry.

 

[McDNicks17]

You're wrong about Chaisson here. Chaisson wasn't re-signed until all of the other options available in free agency were gone. It was a "well, we missed on our targets, we'll just bring back the guy we know can chip in a bit". Not a big deal there at all.

Find me one team that doesn't have 3.85M in overpays somewhere in the lineup. $3.85M to these three guys is a minor issue compared to the other issues you are skating over. Like Koskinen (not Holland) and Neal (not Holland and better buyout than what Holland got here with). Those are the big problem contracts here.

I'm not sure that checks out.

Chiasson was one of the first players signed by anyone on that July 1st.

 

[belair]

The forward core that couldn't piss a drop of offence in game 1 and 2 putting themselves behind the 8 ball and completely wiping out their home ice advantage? This was against a defensively mediocre team like Winnipeg, against an actual good defensive team they probably would get blanked for 3+ games.

That forward core is no where near good enough. It's two players and the support players are so poor that we have to keep going back to McDavid + Draisaitl on one line to have even one reliable scoring line.

The forwards as a whole suck and can are very easy to game plan against for a playoff round. The Habs, Leafs, and Jets all were able to just down this forward group successfully for 2-3 game stretches at a time, every team from now on in a playoff round will study exactly that when going into a playoff series against us.

The book is out on this version of the team, if they ever want to actually win a playoff round sometime they are going to have to significantly improve all aspects of it and that includes the top 6 that constantly falls apart and causes Tippett to run back to the 1 line McDrai security blanket.

You live in a world where growth doesn't exist. And it's an overwhelmingly pessimistic world where failure is always unavoidable.

The fact of the matter is that McDavid and Draisaitl aren't going anywhere. Puljujarvi and Yamamoto are still very young. Our team has the assets to improve the weaker points of the roster this summer and they have a number of emerging prospects next season to look forward to.

Or maybe they'll re-sign everybody and do exactly what they did last season. I don't know. You typed a lot and didn't exactly say anything.

 

[Little Fury]

Wrong. The only one of those three players that brings nothing to the table is Turris. Chaisson as a short term contract at $2.1M was fine when we signed him. A slight overpay, but for one of those two years, he wasn't preventing us from bringing anyone in because we already struck out at free agency. And if we hadn't, we would be in even more trouble now, most of the wingers available that day were overpaid

Chiasson was signed in the morning of July 1. That doesn't scream, last ditch hail mary signing to me.

Kassian is overpaid but when motivated is still a good enough grinder in the bottom six. The issue isn't his play, its his expectations due to his contract. Being overpaid doesn't make him worthless.

The issue is absolutely his play. His contract just makes his utter uselessness more aggravating.

 

[Chabot84]

This is one sour group geeeez.

 

[Little Fury]

You're wrong about Chaisson here. Chaisson wasn't re-signed until all of the other options available in free agency were gone. It was a "well, we missed on our targets, we'll just bring back the guy we know can chip in a bit". Not a big deal there at all.

Find me one team that doesn't have 3.85M in overpays somewhere in the lineup. $3.85M to these three guys is a minor issue compared to the other issues you are skating over. Like Koskinen (not Holland) and Neal (not Holland and better buyout than what Holland got here with). Those are the big problem contracts here.

As I said in my last reply, I think you're wrong about Chiasson.

But to the rest because other teams have bad contracts or there are worse contracts on the roster the current GM isn't responsible for is irrelevant. I'm showing how, using your own numbers, that the Oilers lack of the $4M players you say we need can be at least partially attributed to overpays for marginal contributors.

 

[belair]

I came here to talk about potential rumors and proposals to be better, not talk trash about Holland and the Management. Must be in the wrong thread. I'm sorry.

I'm in agreement with this. I'm probably willing to take the bait in another thread, but these conversations completely highjack threads. It buries all the talk about actual players, which is kind of fun to discuss around this time of year.

 

[Chabot84]

I don’t understand the get rid of Holland sentiment. We have waited for this moment.. this is the year… this is the off season. And it’s off with his head because he took a shot at Turris prob at Tippet request?

Holland has been handcuffed since he got here.

judge him by what he does NOW. That he has some real options.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I don’t understand the get rid of Holland sentiment. We have waited for this moment.. this is the year… this is the off season. And it’s off with his head because he took a shot at Turris prob at Tippet request?

Holland has been handcuffed since he got here.

judge him by what he does NOW. That he has some real options.

I still say we do not have as much money as people think once we sign one or two people and the fact that Nurse needs a new contract after next season

 

[McTonyBrar]

This is one sour group geeeez.

You should check the Oilers twitter

 

[Little Fury]

I haven't quite locked that down, because you always seem to have an issue with everything. Yet you downplay the importance of things like special teams. You're a pessimist.

But my takeaway is that the Canadiens are an example that a team doesn't have to be good in the regular season to be competitive in the playoffs.

Another takeaway from these playoffs....

Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev/Savard
Pelech/Pulock, Leddy/Mayfield
Chiarot/Weber, Edmundson/Petry
Martinez/Pietrangelo, Theodore

You need more than one pairing that can eat minutes. They don't have to be superstars.

My takeaway from the playoffs is that if you have a team that doesn't get buried when your best players aren't on the ice, then you can probably do alright in the playoffs.

NYI 46.91
MTL 54.47
TBL 54.61
VGK 56.94
EDM 35.80

IDGAF how he does it but making up that gap is Old Dutch's Job #1