Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Playoffs Edition

[Sheikyerbouti]

We have to resign Bjugstad at all costs though. Replacing him would be unlikely because we've been looking for him for over a decade lol

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

The debt is almost paid off if the NHL to be believed, and will likely be fully paid off fully sometime early into the season next year with an outside chance of being paid by the end of the playoffs this year if they exceed revenue projections. So they're probably close.

They are close but if the debt is not paid off by June 30, then the cap rises only by $1M. If the players (and owners) want it to increase Chief Elf Bettman has stated that then the league must go back to the model prior to Covid where the escrow is linked to revenue. The PA has said no dice, they negotiated a 6% escrow and its a non starter for them, so if the debt is not paid off by June 30, which Bettman said it probably will not be (close doesn't count) then for next season its a $1M cap unless the PA gives the NHL that concession, which it will not do.

 

[gordonhught]

View attachment 697514

Yikes. 6 mil to resign McLeod, Kostin and Bouchard. Am o reading this right? Only 5 mil to sign all those players?

 

[SwedishFire]

There is no chance Lavoie is above Holloway on the depth chart imo. That wasn't even the case at Bakersfield, they aren't that close. I know Holloway shoots left and didn't impose his game at the NHL level consistently but we need him in the top six asap.

Foegele and Yams are the obvious cap dumps for me.

It's likely to me that Bjugstad will take a bigger discount as well. How many teams can offer the situation he has here? An extra 500Kish after taxes is not enough to move anywhere

Throughout this cup window players are going to be willing to sign for less imo. I think it's doable

Its best for Lavoie to start next year at Bakersfield. Where ever, but not the bench. I wish he got called up this playoff for some apperance, like beside Draisaitl and Nuge.

 

[SwedishFire]

W 59u

Even if the Oilers dump Yamamoto it will be tough to get everyone re-signed. I doubt we want to run a 21 man roster - probably a 22 man roster.

I think we would want some extra cap space to make moves at the deadline as well.

View attachment 697187

The best move is to as Campbell to waive his NMC clausul, and trade him, even with 1 million retainion. In worst case 1,5 million retained, thats equal with a buyout, but 4 years less penalty.

There is talk about trading both Ceci and Kulak, and I dont like to trade guys that are league wide cheap for their contributions.
If there are salary to cut, its still yamamoto and Fogele.

If both Fogele and Yamamoto goes, there is hard to find a replacement for a top6er with that small freeing up with cap, 5,8 m.

Kane McD Hyman
Nyge Drai Lavoie (I wish)
Holloway McLeod Bjugstad
Kostin Ryan Janmark

Bench:
New guy
New guy

But probably Ken doesnt like to pencil in Holloway or Lavoie in the lineup,(wich is correct) and fill in with two depth guys with NHL experience.

 

[Pucklington]

We have to resign Bjugstad at all costs though. Replacing him would be unlikely because we've been looking for him for over a decade lol

Bjugstad is a replacement level player. If he wants anything more than 1.5, you move on.

So I agree the Oilers need to resign him at any cost up to 1.5M.

 

[Nostradumbass]

EK is home


You can't win em all.. Hyman and Nuge deals could have been blunders on their own. Even Kane extension was looking fireable signing up until the last couple games.

Also, Campbell did kinda save our season in game 4. Going down 3-1 and winning the series wouldn't be very likely.

I wouldn't say Kane's extension was looking bad, let alone fireable. The guy had a major injury from a freak incident then came back and injured a rib. It took him a while to get back up and running after missing last season while healthy, I can't imagine what it would take to get the wrist close to 100%.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

I think Bjugstad is right at the age where he's not going to be a big contract - no term. He's had a productive year with most of his time spent getting good ice time on a terrible team in Arizona. The Oilers have something to offer him too - much like Maroon when he signed with the Blues and then the Lightning for a pretty low amount. He would have the chance to win a Cup here on a consistent basis for the next 2-3 years. I would only entertain a 2 year max term at 1.25M. 1.5M would be a one-year number.

Kostin is a replacement level player. Sorry, the high bar for him should be 1M and term should be avoided.

I think Yamo will be gone this summer and it will very likely be via buy-out. It's a 1/3 $ buy out given his age. 433K cap hit in 2023-24 (2.66M savings) and 533K cap hit in 2024-25. He's as good as gone with that math given his production and the need to free up some cap space to attempt to sign Bouchard long term. He cannot stay healthy and his cap hit is bad, bad, bad. The savings next season are enough to potentially get Bouchard locked up for a few more seasons. They will get a tad more in savings when Foegele's deal is up in summer 2024.

 

[LTIR]

I wouldn't say Kane's extension was looking bad, let alone fireable. The guy had a major injury from a freak incident then came back and injured a rib. It took him a while to get back up and running after missing last season while healthy, I can't imagine what it would take to get the wrist close to 100%.

If only Kane didn't look worse before the injury.
Aside from a good game vs NSH and another vs SEA Kane was Yamamoto level ineffective and wasn't clicking with anyone up until a month ago

 

[CupofOil]

I actually hope he does

He's got 70/80 point potential, a bridge contract would be a disaster

The Oilers can't afford to pay him the $7M+ that it will cost to lock him up long term. That is unless they do some serious cap gymnastics or want to ice a bottom 6 of league minimum guys.

I think the reality is that the next 3 years will be their best chance at a Cup run so might as well maximize that window by giving Bouchard a 3 year bridge (the Dobson contract plus a bit more probably) and just take the poison pill of the much larger 3rd contract.

 

[BudBundy]

just goes to show what a massive blunder campbells contract was. lots of good goalies signed for cheap last offseason (and most offseasons). that money is tied up instead of resigning key players with it. going to be hard to find much money elsewhere in the roster and that 5m is locked in for at least another year.

It hasn’t worked out obviously but this is revisionist history. Campbell was the consensus best goalie on the market this summer while everyone else had major question marks. Skinner was completely unproven and if the Oilers had gone into the season with one of the “lots of great goalies who signed cheap” we would’ve got out the pitchforks and torches.

 

[alphahelix]

It hasn’t worked out obviously but this is revisionist history. Campbell was the consensus best goalie on the market this summer while everyone else had major question marks. Skinner was completely unproven and if the Oilers had gone into the season with one of the “lots of great goalies who signed cheap” we would’ve got out the pitchforks and torches.

Strongly disagree. There was no “best consensus goalie” available but if there was it would have probably been Darcy Kuemper with better career stats and coming off a cup win- a much more consistent player throughout his career. Now, he signed for about the same as Campbell so it wouldn’t have saved us any money but he also put up much better numbers.

At the same time, there were loads of goalies like Vanecek and Samsonov that looked like excellent bargains and turned out to be outright steals, that we easily could have paid triple what they got and had better goaltending and less long-term cap commitments. As younger goalies they had question marks but they also had pedigree and strong stretches under their belts in the NHL.

 

[McJadeddog]

W 59u

The best move is to as Campbell to waive his NMC clausul, and trade him, even with 1 million retainion. In worst case 1,5 million retained, thats equal with a buyout, but 4 years less penalty.

There is talk about trading both Ceci and Kulak, and I dont like to trade guys that are league wide cheap for their contributions.
If there are salary to cut, its still yamamoto and Fogele.

If both Fogele and Yamamoto goes, there is hard to find a replacement for a top6er with that small freeing up with cap, 5,8 m.

Kane McD Hyman
Nyge Drai Lavoie (I wish)
Holloway McLeod Bjugstad
Kostin Ryan Janmark

Bench:
New guy
New guy

But probably Ken doesnt like to pencil in Holloway or Lavoie in the lineup,(wich is correct) and fill in with two depth guys with NHL experience.

I can't imagine that Holland is going to be trading veteran D anytime soon unless we have an obvious replacement ready, or have a great trade lined up.

The Oilers can't afford to pay him the $7M+ that it will cost to lock him up long term. That is unless they do some serious cap gymnastics or want to ice a bottom 6 of league minimum guys.

I think the reality is that the next 3 years will be their best chance at a Cup run so might as well maximize that window by giving Bouchard a 3 year bridge (the Dobson contract plus a bit more probably) and just take the poison pill of the much larger 3rd contract.

This is how I see it playing out as well. We all know what our window is, the reality is that in 4 years from now McDrai will be at the very least starting the downside of their career. We need to win soon. Bouchard will get a fair deal, and he isn't stupid. He'll know that his next payday will be setup to be MASSIVE, especially for D who continue to get good contracts later into their careers. We just won't have the money to sign him to the 8 year deal we all wish we could sign him to.

 

[McJadeddog]

I think Bjugstad is right at the age where he's not going to be a big contract - no term. He's had a productive year with most of his time spent getting good ice time on a terrible team in Arizona. The Oilers have something to offer him too - much like Maroon when he signed with the Blues and then the Lightning for a pretty low amount. He would have the chance to win a Cup here on a consistent basis for the next 2-3 years. I would only entertain a 2 year max term at 1.25M. 1.5M would be a one-year number.

Kostin is a replacement level player. Sorry, the high bar for him should be 1M and term should be avoided.

I think Yamo will be gone this summer and it will very likely be via buy-out. It's a 1/3 $ buy out given his age. 433K cap hit in 2023-24 (2.66M savings) and 533K cap hit in 2024-25. He's as good as gone with that math given his production and the need to free up some cap space to attempt to sign Bouchard long term. He cannot stay healthy and his cap hit is bad, bad, bad. The savings next season are enough to potentially get Bouchard locked up for a few more seasons. They will get a tad more in savings when Foegele's deal is up in summer 2024.

Yams can be traded, and likely for a decent asset as well I would say. Pulj got something back, and Yams is *significantly* better than Pulj. We won't need to buy him out if we want to free up salary by moving Yams out.

Oilers have a 3 year cup window. Let’s be honest Draisaitl and Mcdavid will probably be gone after their contracts. Best bet would be a bridge for Bouchard and trade him for picks and prospects for the rebuild.

Even if they stick around they will be 29 when their contracts end. They will still be very good players at 29-31, but will already be starting their slow downward progression. Our time to win in the next 2-3 years here, full stop.

 

[Canovin]

Holland will find a way to move Campbell

 

[CROTT]

Yikes. 6 mil to resign McLeod, Kostin and Bouchard. Am o reading this right? Only 5 mil to sign all those players?

Pretty much, all of the fowards, defence, and goalie cap hits equal the three totals in black on the right. Add the 850K for Bouchard's bonuses last season (consequence of being in LTIR over the cap all season), and the 1.9 ish million for Neal's buyout and its the 76.76 million cap hit. Leaving 6.73 million at a 83.5 mill cap, or just under 5.4 million if the Oilers want no chance of any bonus overages next season provided that said bonuses are earned. But I don't think Broberg will hit too many of his bonuses, Holloway might depending on where he plays in the line up. But that would result in probably moving one of Foegele or Yamamoto so the cap space would be there anyway.

Looking at it if Bouchard is bridged at 4 million, that leaves 2.75 ish million to sign McLeod, Kostin and another forward to even have enough players to ice 11 and 7 with no scratches. Something has to give.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Even if the Oilers dump Yamamoto it will be tough to get everyone re-signed. I doubt we want to run a 21 man roster - probably a 22 man roster.

I think we would want some extra cap space to make moves at the deadline as well.

View attachment 697187

Good summary. Not sure you get Janmark to further reduce his salary. But he’s the player type & salary range you want for bottom six. Think Yamamoto, Foegele, maybe Ryan get squeezed out to squeeze cap money & onboard young, cheap internal replacements with Holloway and Lavoire in bottom six roles to start. Bjugstad is s priority re-sign with his size, right handedness and versatilty.

Foegele’s an ok player but the Janmark price point and similar production results at $1.5 million less is the model for filling out a cap threshold team in mature phase of competition. Ideally maybe the Oil can get a cheap deal with Ryan as an end of roster veteran utility guy. This is where onboarding young interal cheap contract talent like Holloway and Lavoie is important. Kostin for that matter too.

Oil likely need to find a value top six winger (wingers are easiest to find at either free agent or trade deadline). Arguably I’d like to see a 1RD upgrade but that’s maybe s trade deadline type move.

Nice to be looking for specific finishing pieces and some good system talent to help onboard in this tight cap reality of mature phase of organizational competitiveness.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Holland will find a way to move Campbell

Avatar bet Campbell is an Oiler goalie come Game 1 of 23/24?

 

[joestevens29]

Avatar bet Campbell is an Oiler goalie come Game 1 of 23/24?

Like starter or just on the roster?

I see him being here next year for sure, just not sure in what capacity at this point.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

DFO (Seravalli) Top 20 off season trade candidates

(They went 42/50 in their TDL predictions)

1. Erik Karlsson
2. Kevin Hayes
3. Sam Girard
4. Elias Lindholm
5. JT Miller
6. Evgeny Kuznetzov
7. PL Dubois
8. One of Parayko, Faulk, Leddy, Scandella
9. Ross Colton
10. Taylor Hall
11. Adam Henrique
12. Tyler Myers
13. Sean Walker
14. Matt Grzelyk
15. Alec Martinez
16. Kailer Yamamoto
17. Mikael Granlund
18. Ivan Provorov
19. Logan Stanley
20. Kevin LaBanc

 

[Jet Walters]

Avatar bet Campbell is an Oiler goalie come Game 1 of 23/24?

He’ll be back. A more interesting bet would be whether or not he’s the oilers starter by the end of the playoffs. It could happen if Skinner keeps kicking out rebounds to the slot and Campbell looks good should he get another relief appearance.

 

[Soli]

Darn. Good spot for him, last I was checking the Caps had room for a blue line makeover this off-season.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Like starter or just on the roster?

I see him being here next year for sure, just not sure in what capacity at this point.

He will be with the Oilers for Game 1, as part of the tandem barring injury, is my prediction.

 

[Canovin]

Avatar bet Campbell is an Oiler goalie come Game 1 of 23/24?

3 month avatar bet? Sure

I think he gets moved for cap relief

 

[samiam]

Its best for Lavoie to start next year at Bakersfield. Where ever, but not the bench. I wish he got called up this playoff for some apperance, like beside Draisaitl and Nuge.

While I do also agree with you, there is a chance we would lose him on waivers as he is no longer exempt starting next season. It's a risk that will definitely have to be considered.