Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Defense Set, or Another Addition In the Works?

[AddyTheWrath]

I'm wondering if our team will re-sign RNH. His new contract will have him being 29-30 years old, and it will take 7+million AAV to keep him.

It might depend on how this upcoming season goes. What if Barrie, Kahun, Turris or someone else plays really well and we just do not have the cash to keep them? What if expansion makes a true starting goaltending available? There's also extensions for Yamamoto, as well as more on the horizon like Nurse, Puljujarvi and Jones. Of course not all of these guys will get raises but there's a lot of potential here for a few to catch fire here and seem like must-keeps.

Huh? Of course we keep RNH.

 

[Mr Positive]

Huh? Of course we keep RNH.

At all cost?

And btw I really like RNH and want to keep him. It's not just for pure hockey reasons. He's the last piece from the decade of darkness, and so winning with him would be more meaningful.

But no, for me I don't keep RNH at all costs. I consider all the factors first. I think so far Holland has taken that tact as well. Getting Barrie to replace Klefbom on the PP might have been crucial to us, but Holland had a hard limit on what he would give. Same for Kahun. RNH is a different situation, but you have to ask who are we not going to keep because we kept him? Or, how long can we avoid that problem?

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

At all cost?

And btw I really like RNH and want to keep him. It's not just for pure hockey reasons. He's the last piece from the decade of darkness, and so winning with him would be more meaningful.

But no, for me I don't keep RNH at all costs. I consider all the factors first. I think so far Holland has taken that tact as well. Getting Barrie to replace Klefbom on the PP might have been crucial to us, but Holland had a hard limit on what he would give. Same for Kahun. RNH is a different situation, but you have to ask who are we not going to keep because we kept him? Or, how long can we avoid that problem?

One problem if you let Nuge go it's going to be very hard if not impossible to replace him.

Looking ahead to his free agent class I'd argue he'll be the best center available and likely the third or maybe fourth best forward available.

But he could end up being the top player available because I doubt Ovechkin leaves Washington or Landeskog leaves Colorado.

I think his ask would have to be completely ridiculous for it to make sense to let him go. So hopefully Holland can get him signed.

 

[Mr Positive]

One problem if you let Nuge go it's going to be very hard if not impossible to replace him.

Looking ahead to his free agent class I'd argue he'll be the best center available and likely the third or maybe fourth best forward available.

But he could end up being the top player available because I doubt Ovechkin leaves Washington or Landeskog leaves Colorado.

I think his ask would have to be completely ridiculous for it to make sense to let him go. So hopefully Holland can get him signed.

what makes me wary on it is that youth seems to be king nowadays. So RNH being the best center of the FA class is bad, because it gives him more leverage on an extension today. And of course, we can't replace what RNH is today, but if he loses a step it's not long before he's a 3rd liner here.

And wow, just look at all the buyer's remorse on teams who just HAD to keep their aging players. The Isles signed up Leddy and had to give up Toews. The Kings' cap situation crushed them because they had to keep Brown. Most comparable, look at Tampa with Johnson today. I'm having a hard time seeing a comparable situation out there that panned out. O'Reilly won the cup when he was RNH's age now, but he is aging, but luckily his deal is only 3 years. I'm thinking that if RNH's contract is more than 2 years it should be less than 6 million AAV, or else we walk from him. (edit: maybe a little wiggle room there)

 

[AddyTheWrath]

At all cost?

And btw I really like RNH and want to keep him. It's not just for pure hockey reasons. He's the last piece from the decade of darkness, and so winning with him would be more meaningful.

But no, for me I don't keep RNH at all costs. I consider all the factors first. I think so far Holland has taken that tact as well. Getting Barrie to replace Klefbom on the PP might have been crucial to us, but Holland had a hard limit on what he would give. Same for Kahun. RNH is a different situation, but you have to ask who are we not going to keep because we kept him? Or, how long can we avoid that problem?

Personally I think this is a moot point and that RNH will be extended before the season ends. I don't really consider 7 million per an overpay (maybe by 500k/year max, which you still do 10 times out of 10).

I'm not really sure what you're arguing. Who would we need to re-sign that would take away from Nuge? The only one I can really think of that might eat a lot of cap space is Barrie, and we at least have some semblance of an internal replacement for him in Bouchard. Who replaces RNH?

I think you might just be playing devils advocate for the sake of it.

 

[Mr Positive]

Personally I think this is a moot point and that RNH will be extended before the season ends. I don't really consider 7 million per an overpay (maybe by 500k/year max, which you still do 10 times out of 10).

I'm not really sure what you're arguing. Who would we need to re-sign that would take away from Nuge? The only one I can really think of that might eat a lot of cap space is Barrie, and we at least have some semblance of an internal replacement for him in Bouchard. Who replaces RNH?

I think you might just be playing devils advocate for the sake of it.

I am a little bit, but there's truth to it to. I'm just looking at our cap, and we are absolutely full of great players who are making almost nothing. Also, I worded it carefully. I said that it would depend on how this year goes. If you had to decide today, you'd keep RNH and give up some leverage and AAV to keep him.

When you are exiting a rebuild, your mindsight often can be to keep absolutely every good player you can, because they are precious. But, for good teams, you attract good players more often, like we did this summer, so you need to be comfortable walking away from just about anyone. As a GM you must use that leverage to push down AAV under market value.

Holland was GM of that great Detroit team so he must get it, and he also walked away from AA even though many of us as Oiler fans wanted to cling to every shred of value we could, and not let him slip away for nothing. But in the bigger picture that's how it should be, and RNH is no different.

 

[Broberg Speed]

I'm wondering if our team will re-sign RNH. His new contract will have him being 29-30 years old, and it will take 7+million AAV to keep him.

It might depend on how this upcoming season goes. What if Barrie, Kahun, Turris or someone else plays really well and we just do not have the cash to keep them? What if expansion makes a true starting goaltending available? There's also extensions for Yamamoto, as well as more on the horizon like Nurse, Puljujarvi and Jones. Of course not all of these guys will get raises but there's a lot of potential here for a few to catch fire here and seem like must-keeps.

If RNH is looking for 7 million you trade him now, at the deadline or just let him walk when his contract expires without question. The team can do a lot with 7 million over the next half-dozen years.

A 5 year contract extension at 6 million per takes RNH to his 33 birthday (born: April 12, 1993). That is around the max I would offer give or take, maybe a 6th year... he might squeeze a 7th year or another couple hundred K if he hit the open market as an UFA but he won't be playing on McDavid's line or with the team that drafted him.

 

[snipes]

I'm wondering if our team will re-sign RNH. His new contract will have him being 29-30 years old, and it will take 7+million AAV to keep him.

It might depend on how this upcoming season goes. What if Barrie, Kahun, Turris or someone else plays really well and we just do not have the cash to keep them? What if expansion makes a true starting goaltending available? There's also extensions for Yamamoto, as well as more on the horizon like Nurse, Puljujarvi and Jones. Of course not all of these guys will get raises but there's a lot of potential here for a few to catch fire here and seem like must-keeps.

Nuge is a lifer.

He’s a late bloomer just beginning to enter his peak and prime. His game will age well I think.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

I am a little bit, but there's truth to it to. I'm just looking at our cap, and we are absolutely full of great players who are making almost nothing. Also, I worded it carefully. I said that it would depend on how this year goes. If you had to decide today, you'd keep RNH and give up some leverage and AAV to keep him.

When you are exiting a rebuild, your mindsight often can be to keep absolutely every good player you can, because they are precious. But, for good teams, you attract good players more often, like we did this summer, so you need to be comfortable walking away from just about anyone. As a GM you must use that leverage to push down AAV under market value.

Holland was GM of that great Detroit team so he must get it, and he also walked away from AA even though many of us as Oiler fans wanted to cling to every shred of value we could, and not let him slip away for nothing. But in the bigger picture that's how it should be, and RNH is no different.

I personally don't think we have the luxury to wait the entire year to re-sign Nuge. I think he gains leverage the closer we get to 2021 FA.

The Oilers are in a bit of a unique spot with 2 of the best players on the planet and hardly any supporting talent. I get that's changed a bit, but just because Holland added a third line and Kahun doesn't mean we suddenly have the luxury of giving away one of our home grown top 6 talents.

Nuge is someone who can play up and down the lineup on multiple positions, and he has proven chemistry with both of our superstars. If he was 31 or 32 I might understand your argument a bit more, but he's actually been getting better and better recently (shades of his rookie season) and isn't someone who has poor physical attributes that would cause his game to sharply decline.

In terms of your comment about attracting good players, I'll give Holland credit for this offseason but let's not pretend this would have been possible without a flat cap or that we signed anyone close to Nuge's level.

If RNH asks for 8+ or something sure, but there's nothing substantiating that. By all accounts his AAV will fall between 6-7.5 million per.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

Another positive for signing Nuge is he's not a Ladd, Brown or Lucic type of power forward who's almost sure to drop off drastically once he hits 30 or even before it like Lucic.

Players like Nuge who rely more on their mind than their body and raw athleticism for success tend to age better.

On an 8 year deal there's obviously risk of him falling off but I wouldn't expect a Lucic like drop into uselessness for Nugent-Hopkins.

 

[Mr Positive]

I personally don't think we have the luxury to wait the entire year to re-sign Nuge. I think he gains leverage the closer we get to 2021 FA.

The Oilers are in a bit of a unique spot with 2 of the best players on the planet and hardly any supporting talent. I get that's changed a bit, but just because Holland added a third line and Kahun doesn't mean we suddenly have the luxury of giving away one of our home grown top 6 talents.

Nuge is someone who can play up and down the lineup on multiple positions, and he has proven chemistry with both of our superstars. If he was 31 or 32 I might understand your argument a bit more, but he's actually been getting better and better recently (shades of his rookie season) and isn't someone who has poor physical attributes that would cause his game to sharply decline.

In terms of your comment about attracting good players, I'll give Holland credit for this offseason but let's not pretend this would have been possible without a flat cap or that we signed anyone close to Nuge's level.

If RNH asks for 8+ or something sure, but there's nothing substantiating that. By all accounts his AAV will fall between 6-7.5 million per.

these forwards like Neal, Lucic, Ladd, Johnson, Eriksson, Brown seem to start their descent around RNH's age though.

Any deal has risk. To me, with that AAV the term better be short.

 

[Little Fury]

I'm wondering if our team will re-sign RNH. His new contract will have him being 29-30 years old, and it will take 7+million AAV to keep him.

It might depend on how this upcoming season goes. What if Barrie, Kahun, Turris or someone else plays really well and we just do not have the cash to keep them? What if expansion makes a true starting goaltending available? There's also extensions for Yamamoto, as well as more on the horizon like Nurse, Puljujarvi and Jones. Of course not all of these guys will get raises but there's a lot of potential here for a few to catch fire here and seem like must-keeps.

The Oilers will have around $28M in cap space going into the 21-22 season. They should be fine.

 

[Mr Positive]

Another positive for signing Nuge is he's not a Ladd, Brown or Lucic type of power forward who's almost sure to drop off drastically once he hits 30 or even before it like Lucic.

Players like Nuge who rely more on their mind than their body and raw athleticism for success tend to age better.

On an 8 year deal there's obviously risk of him falling off but I wouldn't expect a Lucic like drop into uselessness for Nugent-Hopkins.

It's not just power forwards. Eriksson, Johnson, Turris.

And there are forwards who don't regress too much, and I don't see it in RNH yet. I'm not saying we need to avoid him. It's just that we can't sign him as if he's still 25. We have to play hardball with him if he doesn't see it that way.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

these forwards like Neal, Lucic, Ladd, Johnson, Eriksson, Brown seem to start their descent around RNH's age though.

Any deal has risk. To me, with that AAV the term better be short.

You still haven't answered my question though - who would replace RNH?Anyone that we could sign as a UFA would be similar age.

I also don't think the forwards you've listed are good comparables for RNH. What about players like Oshie or Couture who have continued to deliver?

 

[Mr Positive]

You still haven't answered my question though - who would replace RNH?Anyone that we could sign as a UFA would be similar age.

I also don't think the forwards you've listed are good comparables for RNH. What about players like Oshie or Couture who have continued to deliver?

That's not exactly inspiring if the answer is just that we have no one else so we have to gamble the franchise on RNH. It probably seemed that way for Tampa when they re-signed Johnson to that deal, or when Nashville signed Turris

Part of this is that I'm practically shell shocked by having the Lucic/Neal cap hits. That can't happen again, and those deals seem to come from the 28+ year old age contracts. 2-4 years down the line, we'd still have RNH and who knows what his value would be like, and we'd be looking at extensions for Broberg, Bouchard, Holloway, Nurse, Jones, Bear, ....

 

[subnet]

I like Nuge and I hope he's a lifer. That being said, I think he was definitely overpaid for a number of years for his current contract, so hopefully (debatable thanks to blood-sucking agents) he'd give us a small break and sign for ~$6MM. Maybe $6.5MM even...

There have been a lot of solid posts about him on this thread, how hopefully he won't have a sharp decline since he's not a power forward. Hell, hopefully he'll even hit puberty within the next few years and will bring man strength!

I hope he has a good year (or great year) with #97, but that he takes a little hometown discount to stay with a couple of Hart winners and an up-and-coming team.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

That's not exactly inspiring if the answer is just that we have no one else so we have to gamble the franchise on RNH. It probably seemed that way for Tampa when they re-signed Johnson to that deal, or when Nashville signed Turris

Part of this is that I'm practically shell shocked by having the Lucic/Neal cap hits. That can't happen again, and those deals seem to come from the 28+ year old age contracts. 2-4 years down the line, we'd still have RNH and who knows what his value would be like, and we'd be looking at extensions for Broberg, Bouchard, Holloway, Nurse, Jones, Bear, ....

So we should just refrain from signing any good players for what they might be in the future?

I guess we'll just have to never sign anyone past their ELC's.

 

[McShogun99]

If RNH is looking for 7 million you trade him now, at the deadline or just let him walk when his contract expires without question. The team can do a lot with 7 million over the next half-dozen years.

A 5 year contract extension at 6 million per takes RNH to his 33 birthday (born: April 12, 1993). That is around the max I would offer give or take, maybe a 6th year... he might squeeze a 7th year or another couple hundred K if he hit the open market as an UFA but he won't be playing on McDavid's line or with the team that drafted him.

How many players can we get for 7 million that have chemistry with Mcdavid and Draisaitl, can run a PP and can fill in at C if there’s any injuries plus get around 70 points per season? Having a 3C on the depth chart like RNH is a luxury that no teams have right now.

 

[belair]

Imagine walking away from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over a few hundred thousand in AAV.

 

[Oilhawks]

Imagine walking away from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over a few hundred thousand in AAV.

Yup, appalled to see the flippant posts stating 7 million is a walk away point. Nuge isn’t a high octane elite player but what he lacks in that he brings in great two way play and adaptability.

For example, let’s say next season Hall signs here at 8x8 or you get Nuge at 7x8. If one of McDrai is out for injury any period of time, would you rather Nuge slides in at 2C or Turris?

 

[jukon]

It's interesting that even with their success in the 80's, there has never been a career Oiler. Smyth should have been one and Petry should have had a chance. Hopefully a two or three of McDavid, Drai and Nuge buck that trend. I think if we can make the playoffs in at least four of the next five or SCF (hopefully a cup) at least once there is a good chance Drai and McDavid sign another long term deal.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Yup, appalled to see the flippant posts stating 7 million is a walk away point. Nuge isn’t a high octane elite player but what he lacks in that he brings in great two way play and adaptability.

For example, let’s say next season Hall signs here at 8x8 or you get Nuge at 7x8. If one of McDrai is out for injury any period of time, would you rather Nuge slides in at 2C or Turris?

If we're being completely honest with ourselves if one of McDrai is out for injury for any significant amount of time it won't really matter who we have to fill in based on how reliant we are on the two. This team isn't going anywhere unless these two are heathy.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It's not just power forwards. Eriksson, Johnson, Turris.

And there are forwards who don't regress too much, and I don't see it in RNH yet. I'm not saying we need to avoid him. It's just that we can't sign him as if he's still 25. We have to play hardball with him if he doesn't see it that way.

I think your hypothesis is a little weak. Nugent-Hopkins is not a one dimensional player like a Lucic or Neal whose higher risk of skill erosion in their early thirties. Nuge has great utility as a top line winger whose proven to play with elite talent (both McDavid and Draisaitl); all situational abilities on PP and PK; and centre/wing versatility which is a valuable asset. He's an above average skater whose unlikely to see significant decline in this key attribute. Regarded for high hockey IQ which mitigates against some loss of skating or pure skills. As an undersized, under developed young player he played top line minutes and for at least several seasons logged among the league's top forwards in time on ice. There was resilience and grit to compete and produce despite lack of physical development.

He's more likely Joe Pavelski than Milan Lucic in terms of sustaining skills and abilities moving out of peak years performance around 32-33 years. Nuge's Swiss Army game will enable him/the team to move him around the line up as he ages whether it be second line wing or third line centre, focus on PK and moved off the PP if younger, better talent eventually asserts themselves. Every NHL coach and management team that has had Nugent-Hopkins as a player have raved about the utility and smarts of his game. He's also survived poor development at likely the toughest position to play in the NHL.

Holland will have a ceiling on what he will pay for Nuge (Covid Cap or not). But I would expect he'll get the deal done. This organization has blown well over a decade trying to build a playoff and eventual Cup winning team. I don't see them playing hardball with a player regarded as one of the cornerstones to finally realizing this goal.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think your hypothesis is a little weak. Nugent-Hopkins is not a one dimensional player like a Lucic or Neal whose higher risk of skill erosion in their early thirties. Nuge has great utility as a top line winger whose proven to play with elite talent (both McDavid and Draisaitl); all situational abilities on PP and PK; and centre/wing versatility which is a valuable asset. He's an above average skater whose unlikely to see significant decline in this key attribute. Regarded for high hockey IQ which mitigates against some loss of skating or pure skills. As an undersized, under developed young player he played top line minutes and for at least several seasons logged among the league's top forwards in time on ice. There was resilience and grit to compete and produce despite lack of physical development.

He's more likely Joe Pavelski than Milan Lucic in terms of sustaining skills and abilities moving out of peak years performance around 32-33 years. Nuge's Swiss Army game will enable him/the team to move him around the line up as he ages whether it be second line wing or third line centre, focus on PK and moved off the PP if younger, better talent eventually asserts themselves. Every NHL coach and management team that has had Nugent-Hopkins as a player have raved about the utility and smarts of his game. He's also survived poor development at likely the toughest position to play in the NHL.

Holland will have a ceiling on what he will pay for Nuge (Covid Cap or not). But I would expect he'll get the deal done. This organization has blown well over a decade trying to build a playoff and eventual Cup winning team. I don't see them playing hardball with a player regarded as one of the cornerstones to finally realizing this goal.

power forwards don't all fall of a cliff, and as my post points out, it's not just power forwards who start to decline at 28. I didn't even mention Lucic or power forwards in that post. All skill players like RNH

RNH's intelligence and playmaking will serve him well into his 30s. However, his skating will not. That trait always declines with age.

The counters in this thread to the Johnson/Turris comparable to RNH were Couture and Pavelski. Those are elite players, and yes it is proven that elite players do age better. But, RNH is not elite. He's a top end 2nd line player or versatile forward. He is more comparable to the Johnson/Turris types. I'm not just cherry picking the ones that obviously did fall off either. I'm struggling to find that true RNH comparable with 7 million AAV that did pan out into their 30s

edit: I'd say that a good comparable might be Mikko Koivu. I always figured he was similar to RNH, but RNH never had his surrouding cast. But I do still think the point stands that it's a bit of a minefield to committ to forward in their 30s

 

[Canovin]

It's interesting that even with their success in the 80's, there has never been a career Oiler. Smyth should have been one and Petry should have had a chance. Hopefully a two or three of McDavid, Drai and Nuge buck that trend. I think if we can make the playoffs in at least four of the next five or SCF (hopefully a cup) at least once there is a good chance Drai and McDavid sign another long term deal.

Joey Moss was a career Oiler