Rumor: No weighted draft lottery

[HSHS]

Honestly, which team do you think suffered more last year? The Caps or the Flyers?

Going 30-52 isn't good but I think missing out on playoff revenues, a shot at the cup, and adding a year to the age of the premiere players is indicitive of a significantly "worse" season.[/QUOTE]

But all the teams missed out on this, including the Caps...

I mean, we all KNOW that NO ONE knows that the Caps wouldn't have been President's Trophy winners last year.

 

[HSHS]

But what constitutes a poorer team? You can't say that Washington is a team with market issues because they at one time had a fairly stiff payroll with Gonchar, Jagr, and Lang all onboard. They were throwing money around. So, you can't consider them poor. All what they did was a salary dump in 2003/2004.

And they lost 20M per year on that 50M payroll...

 

[MontrealCruiser_83*]

But all the teams missed out on this, including the Caps...

I mean, we all KNOW that NO ONE knows that the Caps wouldn't have been President's Trophy winners last year.

Which is why it should be a 1-30 draft since nobody knows who would of finished where. You said it yourself.

But even going by the weighted system which assumes where teams would of finished, I think the Flyers had a worse season than the Caps for the reasons I mentioned.

Whichever way you look at it, not much sense comes out of rewarding the bad teams for a non-season.

 

[Boltsfan2029]

Let's remember that Tampa Bay are the defending champs and they couldn't even sell out. As part of ticket promotions, they were giving away free beer and that didn't even work either.

Assuming you're talking playoffs, please, please, please get the facts straight...

The "free beer" promotion was a season tickets promo, it had nothing to do with the playoffs.

Of all our home playoff games, we didn't sell out two (I believe one in the 1st round & one in the 2nd round) All other playoff games were sold out and we broke arena records for games at the Ice Palace. With hockey capacity listed as 19,500, for Game 7 of the finals we had 22,717 crammed inside the building (SROs going for $250 a pop for Game 7) and police estimated 30,000 outside. If I could find average playoff attendance anywhere, I'm sure we're close to the top for 2004-2005.

 

[HSHS]

Which is why it should be a 1-30 draft since nobody knows who would of finished where. You said it yourself.

But even going by the weighted system which assumes where teams would of finished, I think the Flyers had a worse season than the Caps for the reasons I mentioned.

Whichever way you look at it, not much sense comes out of rewarding the bad teams for a non-season.

I was just pointing out that you were playing both sides... on one hand you say 1-30 cause no one knows and on the other you said that Flyers had a worse season...

If you believe your arguments about worse seasons, then I guess you believe that teams that finish 9 or 10th each year and get picks 13 are the true losers of any season?? ie they lose the top picks AND a playoff run chance.

I don't see draft positioning as being a "reward".

I believe the 3-4 weighing system is a farce... 1-30 is much better, but still aweful.

 

[Levitate]

i didn't mean "poorest" in terms of money, i meant in terms of performance. bad choice of words on my part i guess

i don't think big market or small market should have anything to do with draft order.

 

[HSHS]

Assuming you're talking playoffs, please, please, please get the facts straight...

The "free beer" promotion was a season tickets promo, it had nothing to do with the playoffs.

Of all our home playoff games, we didn't sell out two (I believe one in the 1st round & one in the 2nd round) All other playoff games were sold out and we broke arena records for games at the Ice Palace. With hockey capacity listed as 19,500, for Game 7 of the finals we had 22,717 crammed inside the building (SROs going for $250 a pop for Game 7) and police estimated 30,000 outside. If I could find average playoff attendance anywhere, I'm sure we're close to the top for 2004-2005.

I thought that "free beer" promo kicked butt!!! They should just change it to a free $10 certificate for every home game.

 

[MontrealCruiser_83*]

I was just pointing out that you were playing both sides... on one hand you say 1-30 cause no one knows and on the other you said that Flyers had a worse season...

If you believe your arguments about worse seasons, then I guess you believe that teams that finish 9 or 10th each year and get picks 13 are the true losers of any season?? ie they lose the top picks AND a playoff run chance.

I don't see draft positioning as being a "reward".

I believe the 3-4 weighing system is a farce... 1-30 is much better, but still aweful.

I'm not playing both sides... I'm just pointing out what's unfair about the weighted lottery.

Teams that finish 9-10 are the true losers of the season (unless there was an exciting race for the 8th spot). They don't have any significant shot in the lottery and they don't have any type of extra revenue that comes in as a reward for being a decent team.

 

[HSHS]

I'm not playing both sides... I'm just pointing out what's unfair about the weighted lottery.

Teams that finish 9-10 are the true losers of the season (unless there was an exciting race for the 8th spot). They don't have any significant shot in the lottery and they don't have any type of extra revenue that comes in as a reward for being a decent team.

Okay then a simple question... do you believe it is possible to predict approximately where most teams would have finished (say in thirds, top, middle, bottom)?? I believe there would be outliers, but not statistically significant.

Cause from my point of view if you say:
-Yes, you can't say 1-30 and stay with the intention of an entry draft.
-No, then you can't say that Philly had a worse season than the Caps cause then the Caps could have missed out on a Cup run.

You can argue the "all ready been compensated" argument. That to me is the only logical argument for a 1-30. And I agree that's why I said the 3,4, or 5 year weighting is aweful and worse than a 1-30. But if you go that route, then you are saying that you wish to go against the meaning of the draft.

Additionally, we are only talking about 1 player here who may be NHL ready. All the other guys will need 2-5 yrs to develop.

 

[MontrealCruiser_83*]

Okay then a simple question... do you believe it is possible to predict approximately where most teams would have finished (say in thirds, top, middle, bottom)?? I believe there would be outliers, but not statistically significant.

Cause from my point of view if you say:
-Yes, you can't say 1-30 and stay with the intention of an entry draft.
-No, then you can't say that Philly had a worse season than the Caps cause then the Caps could have missed out on a Cup run.

You can argue the "all ready been compensated" argument. That to me is the only logical argument for a 1-30. And I agree that's why I said the 3,4, or 5 year weighting is aweful and worse than a 1-30. But if you go that route, then you are saying that you wish to go against the meaning of the draft.

Additionally, we are only talking about 1 player here who may be NHL ready. All the other guys will need 2-5 yrs to develop.

Let's just say that when there's this much ambiguity involved in a particular event, that randomizing is the most logical resolution. Nobody can determine who those outliers would of been and correlations mean nothing in a business like the NHL. Especially when millions of dollars are riding on the lottery and subsequent draft.

 

[HSHS]

Let's just say that when there's this much ambiguity involved in a particular event, that randomizing is the most logical resolution. Nobody can determine who those outliers would of been and correlations mean nothing in a business like the NHL. Especially when millions of dollars are riding on the lottery and subsequent draft.

I think you will find many people who say that randomizing is more ambiguous, including me. But as I said, its better than that 3-5 yr weighting garbage.

I agree that potentially millions of dollars and the futures of franchises are at stake.... going to be a fun lottery to watch!

 

[DARKSIDE]

Honestly, which team do you think suffered more last year? The Caps or the Flyers?

Going 30-52 isn't good but I think missing out on playoff revenues, a shot at the cup, and adding a year to the age of the premiere players is indicitive of a significantly "worse" season.

This is a new age, forget the past and let's move on. And if they reverse the draft, what's so bad about picking 30th and then 31st. If this is the case, I can deal with basically getting two late first rounders as a Devils fan.

 

[MontrealCruiser_83*]

This is a new age, forget the past and let's move on. And if they reverse the draft, what's so bad about picking 30th and then 31st. If this is the case, I can deal with basically getting two late first rounders as a Devils fan.

I completely agree. I think reversing the draft order for the next round is brilliant.

I want this draft lottery thing to be a big thing that gets alot of TV coverage. Look at the NBA. They have it televised and it gets quite a bit of attention. Coming off a 1-season lockout, this would be a perfect thing to get the buzz started in ALL markets, not only the ones that nobody cares about like a weighted lottery would do.

 

[HSHS]

I completely agree. I think reversing the draft order for the next round is brilliant.

I want this draft lottery thing to be a big thing that gets alot of TV coverage. Look at the NBA. They have it televised and it gets quite a bit of attention. Coming off a 1-season lockout, this would be a perfect thing to get the buzz started in ALL markets, not only the ones that nobody cares about like a weighted lottery would do.

I agree too... the snaking is awesome. Look at the players that were taken at the end of first/beginning of second. Some of those guys may easily outperform some of the top guys. Schremp, Green, Fristic, Salomonsson, Bourque... would you take two of them verses one Swartz, Thelen, Stafford, Wolski (I am by no way demeaning these guys).

 

[Mess]

All this fighting over who has more balls and should get more balls

Here is a quick list of NHL players not picked in the 1st or 2nd Rounds of the entry draft ..

Goalies
Eddie Belfour - Undrafted
Curtis Joseph - Undrafted
Marty Turco - G - Selected by Dallas Stars round 5 #124 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft
Tomas Vokoun - G - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 9 #226 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft
Nikolai Khabibulin - G - Selected by Winnipeg Jets round 9 #204 overall 1992 NHL Entry Draft
Miikka Kiprusoff - G - Selected by San Jose Sharks round 5 #116 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft
Evgeny Nabokov - G - Selected by San Jose Sharks round 9 #219 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft
Robert Esche - G - Selected by Phoenix Coyotes round 6 #139 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft
Dominik Hasek - G - Selected by Chicago Blackhawks round 10 #199 overall 1983 NHL Entry Draft
Andrew Raycroft - G - Selected by Boston Bruins round 5 #135 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft
Pasi Nurminen - G - Selected by Atlanta Thrashers round 6 #189 overall 2001 NHL Entry Draft
Patrick Lalime - G - Selected by Pittsburgh Penguins round 6 #156 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft

Defense
Nicklas Lidstrom - D - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 3 #53 overall 1989 NHL Entry Draft ... (726 points)
Zdeno Chara - D - Selected by New-York Islanders round 3 #56 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft ... (132 points)
Rob Blake - D - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 4 #70 overall 1988 NHL Entry Draft - (586 points)
Sergei Zubov - D - Selected by New-York Rangers round 5 #85 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ....(607 points)
Mathieu Schneider - D - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 3 #44 overall 1987 NHL Entry Draft .. (552 points)
Alexei Zhitnik - D - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 4 #81 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft ... (396 points)
Tomas Kaberle - D - Selected by Toronto Maple Leafs round 8 #204 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft ... (224 points)
Kim Johnsson - D - Selected by New-York Rangers round 11 #286 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (169 points)
Pavel Kubina - D - Selected by Tampa-Bay Lightning round 7 #179 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft ... (171 points)
Sheldon Souray - D - Selected by New-Jersey Devils round 3 #71 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (83 points)
Danil Markov - D - Selected by Toronto Maple Leafs round 9 #223 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft ... (120 points)

Forwards
Martin St. Louis - RW - Undrafted .. (259 points)
Milan Hejduk - RW Selected by Quebec Nordiques round 4 #87 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (416 points)
Daniel Alfredsson - RW Selected by Ottawa Senators round 6 #133 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ...(569 points)
Brad Richards - C - Selected by Tampa-Bay Lightning round 3 #64 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft .... (277 points)
Sergei Fedorov - C - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 4 #74 overall 1989 NHL Entry Draft ... (1019 points)
Pavel Datsyuk - C - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 6 #171 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft ... (154 points)
Henrik Zetterberg - LW - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 7 #210 overall 1999 NHL Entry Draft ... (87 points)
Mark Recchi -RW - Selected by Pittsburgh Penguins round 4 #67 overall 1988 NHL Entry Draft ....(1201 points)
Steve Sullivan - C - Selected by New-Jersey Devils round 9 #233 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (449 points)
Richard Zednik - RW - Selected by Washington Capitals round 10 #249 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (269 points)
Tomas Holmstrom - LW - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 10 #257 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (236 Points)
Chris Drury - LW - Selected by Quebec Nordiques round 3 #72 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (328 points)
Alyn McCauley - C - Selected by New-Jersey Devils round 4 #79 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft .. (139 points)
Fredrik Modin - LW - Selected by Toronto Maple Leafs round 3 #64 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft ... (308 points)
Darcy Tucker - RW - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 6 #151 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft ... (298 points)
Michal Handzus - C - Selected by St. Louis Blues round 4 #101 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft ... (247 points)
Tony Amonte - RW - Selected by New-York Rangers round 4 #68 overall 1988 NHL Entry Draft .. (828 points)
Alexei Zhamnov - C - Selected by Winnipeg Jets round 4 #77 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ... (709 points)
Sami Kapanen - LW - Selected by Hartford Whalers round 4 #87 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft .. (391 points)
Mark Messier - C- Selected by Edmonton Oilers round 3 #48 overall 1979 NHL Entry Draft .. (1887 points)
Anson Carter - RW - Selected by Quebec Nordiques round 10 #220 overall 1992 NHL Entry Draft ...(338 points)
Kris Draper - C - Selected by Winnipeg Jets round 3 #62 overall 1989 NHL Entry Draft .. (236 point)
Brett Hull - RW - Selected by Calgary Flames round 6 #117 overall 1984 NHL Entry Draft ... (1390 points)
Luc Robitaille - LW - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 9 #171 overall 1984 NHL Entry Draft ... (1370 points)
Robert Lang - C - Selected by Los-Angeles Kings round 7 #133 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ... (467 points)
Jere Lehtinen - RW - Selected by Minnesota North Stars round 4 #88 overall 1992 NHL Entry Draft ...(341 points)
Michael Nylander - C - Selected by Hartford Whalers round 3 #59 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft. (447 points)
Vaclav Prospal - RW - Selected by Philadelphia Flyers round 3 #71 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft...(348 points)
Vyacheslav Kozlov - LW - Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 3 #45 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft ...(559 points)
Marc Savard - C - Selected by New-York Rangers round 4 #91 overall 1995 NHL Entry Draft ...(304 points)
Shawn McEachern - RW - Selected by Pittsburgh Penguins round 6 #110 overall 1987 NHL Entry Draft .. (571 points)
Peter Bondra - RW - Selected by Washington Capitals round 8 #156 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft .. (839 points)
Pavol Demitra - C - Selected by Ottawa Senators round 9 #227 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft ..(519 points)
Brian Savage - LW - Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 8 #171 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft ... (345 points)
Miroslav Satan - LW - Selected by Edmonton Oilers round 5 #111 overall 1993 NHL Entry Draft ....(519 points)


Just a few .. So if you never had a 1st and or 2nd round pick in the last 15 years you would have had to live with these guys only..

 

[Riggins]

Sure there are gems in the later rounds, no one contests that. You can't disagree that you are more likely to get better players with higher picks though. I wish they would just get this done and do the lottery already.

 

[thestonedkoala]

:lol

That looks like Minnesota's lineup the Messenger...scattered from different rounds. Hell some of our best players came out of the 5th round or less!

 

[PecaFan]

I agree too... the snaking is awesome. Look at the players that were taken at the end of first/beginning of second. Some of those guys may easily outperform some of the top guys. Schremp, Green, Fristic, Salomonsson, Bourque... would you take two of them verses one Swartz, Thelen, Stafford, Wolski (I am by no way demeaning these guys).

So, would you trade the #1 and #60 picks away for #30 and #31?

Yeah, neither would I.

 

[nyr7andcounting]

All this fighting over who has more balls and should get more balls

But Sydney Crosby isn't any of these guys, so they say.

 

[Mess]

But Sydney Crosby isn't any of these guys, so they say.

Thats true ..

The guys I listed are proven NHLers.. Crosby hasn't played a minute yet so he could bust or have a career ending injury well before he reached his lofty expectations and/or never come close to some of those totals on the list.

 

[RangerBoy]

EJ Hradek of ESPN the Magazine was on ESPNEWS today at 3:30 discussing the NHL lockout.He was asked about the draft and Hradek said it will be a weighted draft lottery based on the standings from the last three NHL seasons.Teams which have missed the playoffs will have better chances of winning the lottery and the teams which have not previously won the lottery will have a greater chance of winning the lottery.Every team will have a chance but some teams will have a greater chance than other teams.Hradek was interviewed live from the ESPN Zone in Times Square.Hradek also felt that ESPN was still interested in the NHL

 

[Mess]

EJ Hradek of ESPN the Magazine was on ESPNEWS today at 3:30 discussing the NHL lockout.He was asked about the draft and Hradek said it will be a weighted draft lottery based on the standings from the last three NHL seasons.Teams which have missed the playoffs will have better chances of winning the lottery and the teams which have not previously won the lottery will have a greater chance of winning the lottery.Every team will have a chance but some teams will have a greater chance than other teams.Hradek was interviewed live from the ESPN Zone in Times Square.Hradek also felt that ESPN was still interested in the NHL

Not sure how he could know that as fact, and is just repeating the rumour we have all heard ..

I believe that the NHL BOG will decide that issue and not sure that has been presented to them yet .. and the CBA may also have an effect on this in that Bettman may have to trade increased opportunities in the draft for increased Revenue sharing which is also a rumour ..

 

[HSHS]

So, would you trade the #1 and #60 picks away for #30 and #31?

Yeah, neither would I.

Where did that comment come from? It makes no sense to my statement that snaking eases the "pain"... and most noteably, that a 30-31 situation could be better than a 15-46.

 

[norrisnick]

EJ Hradek of ESPN the Magazine was on ESPNEWS today at 3:30 discussing the NHL lockout.He was asked about the draft and Hradek said it will be a weighted draft lottery based on the standings from the last three NHL seasons.Teams which have missed the playoffs will have better chances of winning the lottery and the teams which have not previously won the lottery will have a greater chance of winning the lottery.Every team will have a chance but some teams will have a greater chance than other teams.Hradek was interviewed live from the ESPN Zone in Times Square.Hradek also felt that ESPN was still interested in the NHL

Hradek also reported the last second deal and the "saved" '04-'05 season.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Not sure how he could know that as fact, and is just repeating the rumour we have all heard ..

I believe that the NHL BOG will decide that issue and not sure that has been presented to them yet .. and the CBA may also have an effect on this in that Bettman may have to trade increased opportunities in the draft for increased Revenue sharing which is also a rumour ..

And yet this thread continues with over a week going by and not a single person putting this rumor into print. But the counter to this rumor appears again and again.

I think that we can pretty safely say that there will be a weighted lottery of some sort.