Prospect Info: Round 3, Pick 72: Ronnie Attard, D, Tri-City (USHL) --> Western Michigan

[deadhead]

If I were to pick the overage player with the highest probability of success, it would be a big defenseman who emerged after his draft year, we've seen it with Myers, we're seeing it with Attard, sometimes bigger defensemen need time to master both body control and the nuances of the game.

 

[VladDrag]

I find drafting overage defenseman to be a little more rewarding than drafting overage forwards. Nuances of the position and all of that.

I'm now curious to see if there has been a study of overage players in the draft. It would be interesting to see how it breaks down.

It certainly makes sense overage Dmen would have a better 'hit' rate than forwards. I wonder if that translates to goalies as well?

 

[FLYguy3911]

I'm now curious to see if there has been a study of overage players in the draft. It would be interesting to see how it breaks down.

It certainly makes sense overage Dmen would have a better 'hit' rate than forwards. I wonder if that translates to goalies as well?

I don't have any hard numbers I'm going off of. More just experience and eye balling it.

Raw points aren't the best way to judge talent, but for simplicity, just take a peak at the scoring leaderboards. Almost all 1st year draft eligibles and usually (high) first rounders at that. Panarin (18th) is the only scorer in the top 50 that didn't get picked in his 1st year of eligibility.

Defenseman you have in the top 25 scoring defensemen:

Giordano - undrafted overager
Yandle - D+1
Gustafsson - D+2 and then UFA
Krug - undrafted college FA
Ekholm - D+1
Spurgeon - undrafted overager

Just outside of that you have:
Ghost - D+1
Muzzin - drafted but unsigned overager
Montour - D+2
Schmidt - undrafted college FA
C. Miller - D+1
Parayko - D+1

Not just regular NHLers, but impact players.

Goalies come from all different kinds of backgrounds, but the sample size is much smaller.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I find drafting overage defenseman to be a little more rewarding than drafting overage forwards. Nuances of the position and all of that.

Just in the Flyers system you have Ghost, St. Ivany, Kalynuk, Braun! Not to mention the undrafted guys like Myers and Zamula who almost certainly would have went relatively high in their D+1 had they not signed NHL contracts.

This makes total sense.

When you look at it through this lense, it makes me wonder if the urban legend of Defensemen taking longer to hit their peak is somewhat rooted in the established evaluative processes being more precise for Forwards.

We know that draft position pushes you up organizational depth charts and that it often takes multiple seasons for positional hierarchy to change. We also know that there's a type of Defenseman traditionally prized by hockey culture that is falling out of favor who took not just lineup spots, but high Minute and/or leverage ones. It takes longer for the talent to push through the muck.

 

[FLYguy3911]

This makes total sense.

When you look at it through this lense, it makes me wonder if the urban legend of Defensemen taking longer to hit their peak is somewhat rooted in the established evaluative processes being more precise for Forwards.

We know that draft position pushes you up organizational depth charts and that it often takes multiple seasons for positional hierarchy to change. We also know that there's a type of Defenseman traditionally prized by hockey culture that is falling out of favor who took not just lineup spots, but high Minute and/or leverage ones. It takes longer for the talent to push through the muck.

This is an interesting point. Not totally related as its junior hockey usage of 1st round picks, but I used to get a chuckle out of Mark French leaning on Keegan Kanzig and Colby Harmsworth in late game situations protecting a lead when he had two 1st round picks and arguably the best pair in the CHL sitting on the bench.

Maybe this inefficiency starts to fade away as we slowly move away from the hockey guy culture. And maybe the Adam Ginning’s of the world will be the new inefficiency.

 

[Psuhockey]

This makes total sense.

When you look at it through this lense, it makes me wonder if the urban legend of Defensemen taking longer to hit their peak is somewhat rooted in the established evaluative processes being more precise for Forwards.

We know that draft position pushes you up organizational depth charts and that it often takes multiple seasons for positional hierarchy to change. We also know that there's a type of Defenseman traditionally prized by hockey culture that is falling out of favor who took not just lineup spots, but high Minute and/or leverage ones. It takes longer for the talent to push through the muck.

I think one of the problems with evaluating defensemen, and also goalies, is that a large component of success at those positions is mental and it’s impossible to accurately measure that in lower leagues as to how it will translate to the NHL. The number one skill of a successful defenseman is decision making and it’s impossible to replicate the speed and pressure of the NHL. Plus a prospects brain can develop rapidly thru game work and confidence based on new opportunities. That’s one of the reasons there have been so many overage impact defensemen.

I do wonder if this is an area where virtual reality could fill the gap: simulator work to see how a prospect’s brain processes information. I don’t think it would be foolproof as it wouldn’t be able to replicate the stress of a game but I think it could give valuable information that normal scouting couldn’t.