Pre-Game Talk: Round 1 : Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

[SirClintonPortis]

I chose Lightning in 5, even though I'm torn between 5 or 6 for the Lightning. Disciplined teams means fewer exploits. Fewer exploits means Habs get frustrated. Frustrated Habs means Habs who don't give a full effort. Then, we lose.

 

[TravisF]

I predicted Habs in 5. Montreal is too strong for them. Price is going to deliver this time in the playoffs.

 

[Koivu777]

I predicted Habs in 5. Montreal is too strong for them. Price is going to deliver this time in the playoffs.

I said the same! LET'S BELIEVE!! GO HABS GO!!!!!

 

[Laurent]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/light...2175220?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Nice lil'article about TB Players that were Habs fans

 

[Fazkovsky]

I honestly have a good feeling about this series I dont know why. It has a lot to do with Bishop not playing then anything else. It removes like a pressure psychologically, no matter if Lindback was good or not this past week.

 

[fsdev905]

FFS, I can't wait any longer!

 

[peate]

FFS, I can't wait any longer!

Well by this time tomorrow we'll either be ecstatic for having won the first game, on suicide watch due to a loss or having a nervous breakdown after the first scoreless overtime period.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

Jesus.. I shouldn't have looked at the 2004 disaster series..

looking at Markov and Bouillon's names... urg..

 

[Spectaculard]

Wheres the gdt???

 

[Bob b smith]

There's so much skill on their team. It's the same team that went to the Calder Cup Final one year ago. So many young player could break out this series... Killorn, JT Brown, Panik, Kucherov... That's why any edge is important. The fact Galchenyuk is not there and even Moen out for now, are huge losses... If it wasn't for Bishop sitting out and the gut assumption that either Lindback or Gudlevskis can't fill in at the same level, this would be very scary for the Habs.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

There's so much skill on their team. It's the same team that went to the Calder Cup Final one year ago. So many young player could break out this series... Killorn, JT Brown, Panik, Kucherov... That's why any edge is important. The fact Galchenyuk is not there and even Moen out for now, are huge losses... If it wasn't for Bishop sitting out and the gut assumption that either Lindback or Gudlevskis can't fill in at the same level, this would be very scary for the Habs.

So many rookies also mean they are more likely to panick and get off their game if things don't go their way.

Kind of what happened to us last year. We were dominating, but still behind in term of goals.

 

[Hackett]

The consensus on these boards and on tsn are way too optimistic in my opinion.

I hope I'm wrong, but I sense that many people here are going to be enraged when everything is said and done in this series.

 

[Mue]

I think Tampa takes this series in six games.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I think Tampa takes this series in six games.

Just like you said on the main board. Regardless of actual factors or facts.

 

[Account Terminated]

Wheres the gdt???

You asked the question just a half hour before the stroke of midnight on game day?

Geez, I get you guys are all excited but lets relax a little.

 

[Drakkar]

Just like you said on the main board. Regardless of actual factors or facts.

I also think Tampa wins this... I'm thinking 7 games (because of Price), but I would not be surprised if it's shorter.

We do not matchup well at all against them, and our 5-5 Close Corsi against them was terrible this season.

Game 1 38.89%
Game 2 48.28%
Game 3 42.47%
Game 4 42.20%

Total for the 4 games: 43.11%

 

[Drakkar]

Here's the 5-5 Corsi I calculated for every Montreal player, this season against Tampa Bay. It is very telling that our 4th line players fared very poorly against their opposition (all have ver low Corsi %). Our only 2 defensemen that had success are, without surprise, Markov and Subban (And Beaulieu only played one game, but was quite good also).


We only have 2 active players, Gallagher and Desharnais, that had above-average Corsi against Tampa this season. (Galchenyuk being injured)

FORWARDS:

Brendan Gallagher	58.59%
Alex Galchenyuk	55.07%
David Desharnais	51.81%
Max Pacioretty	49.11%
Lars Eller		48.35%
Tomas Plekanec	45.87%
Rene Bourque	45.12%
Michael Bournival	44.44%
Brian Gionta		41.03%
Daniel Briere	40.26%
Thomas Vanek	39.29%
Travis Moen	30.95%
Brandon Prust	28.13%
Ryan White		25.64%
Christian Thomas	22.22%
Gabriel Dumont	8.33%
George Parros	0.00%

DEFENSEMEN

P.K. Subban	54.62%
Andrei Markov	51.06%
Nathan Beaulieu	50.00%
Alexei Emelin	45.54%
Mike Weaver	42.86%
Douglas Murray	38.03%
Francis Bouillon	37.04%
Josh Gorges		37.04%
Raphael Diaz	32.26%

 

[Fazkovsky]

I would play Bouillon over Murray and beaulieu over Bouillon though.

If Murray and Moen and Bishop for TB aren't playing that raises our chances of winning by 60%. Moen is responsible defensively but offensively, he is easily one of the worst on the team. Can be replaced by Bournival or White.

 

[Drakkar]

The same stats, but this time, for Tampa's players against Montreal this season.

FORWARDS

B.J. Crombeen	66.67%
Ryan Malone	64.81%
Brett Connolly	63.64%
Valtteri Filppula	61.80%
Ryan Callahan	61.29%
Martin St. Louis	60.23%
Alex Killorn		56.25%
Teddy Purcell	56.12%
Nikita Kucherov	55.07%
Ondrej Palat	54.72%
Nate Thompson	53.16%
Steven Stamkos	50.00%
Tyler Johnson	50.00%
J.T. Brown		48.24%
Tom Pyatt		46.15%
Richard Panik	41.38%

DEFENSEMEN

Mark Barberio		71.05%
Michael Kostka		66.67%
Eric Brewer			60.00%
Victor Hedman		54.55%
Matthew Carle		53.62%
Radko Gudas		52.10%
Andrej Sustr		50.79%
Jean-Philippe Cote	46.15%
Sami Salo			43.90%
Dmitry Korobov		40.00%

 

[Mue]

Just like you said on the main board. Regardless of actual factors or facts.

A fact: in the regular season series between the Habs and Tampa, Tampa was consistently the better team.

With Price, the Habs have a fairly big advantage in net but I think Tampa is better defensively and offensively. Price will keep things close (and maybe the Habs even ride Price through the series - hopefully!) but I think Tampa will end up winning the series.

Of course, I hope I'm dead wrong.