Roster speculation part XIV

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I think those parameters are impossible to meet. The only reason a 22 year old Brodin is potentially on the trade market is because he hasn't taken the next step. I would value it similar to Tyler Myers (not as player types) but in stage of development.

If Brodin maxes out at the lockdown LD in the Hjalmarsson mold... that's fantastic use of the 2016 1st rounder. One hole plugged, long term, well before their prime but already NHL proven.

I don't think Brodin's ceiling is as high as most. But whether he plays his defensive defensemen role with Bogo on a 2nd pair, or with Risto on a 1st pair... it's a role that we desperately need to fill.

His mobility and gap control are world class for a defensive defensemen. He's a fantastic fit.

See, to me this is essentially a Ricky Bobby situation where he's either a top pairing shutdown guy every bit the equal to Hjalmarsson, or someone who cost us the best trade asset we'll have over the next 3 seasons to not solve by-far our biggest roster need.

Also, it's not what number of pairing he's on, it's whether the pairing he's on is the one playing the other team's best guys.

 

[dkollidas]

Which is why we need to include mccabe

I see your point. To me personally, id rather spend the asset (in this case, McCabe) plus picks and send them to Boston for Krug. Then you have a true PP QB who can log minutes and play in the top-4.

Then you could still move our 1st round pick for Brodin.

Brodin-Ristolainen
Krug-Pysyk
Gorges-Bogosian
*Nelson

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

2016 1st and Pysyk for Brodin
McCabe and 3rd for Enstrom
Sign Ben Lovejoy

Brodin-Risto
Enstrom-Bogo
Gorges-Lovejoy
x Franson

satisfies my desire for 2 top 4 Dmen, where do I sign?

 

[Uberpecker]

2016 1st and Pysyk for Brodin
McCabe and 3rd for Enstrom
Sign Ben Lovejoy

Brodin-Risto
Enstrom-Bogo
Gorges-Lovejoy
x Franson

When did Enstrom's price drop to McCabe + 3rd? Last time I checked McCabe + 2017 1st was being discussed in here. Lovejoy: Why not, but Nelson has looked competent enough so far to hold down a 3rd pairing spot, to say the least.
That being said, if that's what our blueline looks like to start the season without any major assets gone, I'll be ecstatic.

 

[Jame]

When did Enstrom's price drop to McCabe + 3rd? Last time I checked McCabe + 2017 1st was being discussed in here. Lovejoy: Why not, but Nelson has looked competent enough so far to hold down a 3rd pairing spot, to say the least.
That being said, if that's what our blueline looks like to start the season without any major assets gone, I'll be ecstatic.

I don't know. I want Enstrom though

I like Nelson so far, but I love Ben Lovejoy.

 

[TehDoak]

So, I think I am beginning to sense a general consensus on the plan for this summer:

1) Leverage forward/prospect/pick depth to resolving the LHD situation. 1, potentially 2 LHD should be added.

2) Utilize remaining cap space to supplement to the top 6 forward group on a short term basis.

 

[TehDoak]

Trades:

To Anaheim:

Girgensons, Bailey, 2nd (From McGinn trade, assuming they make WCF)

To Buffalo: Fowler

To Detroit: Pysyk
To Buffalo: Smith

To Edmonton: franson
To Buffalo: 4th




CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster

FORWARDS (13)
Rightwing: T. Ennis ($4,600,000) - S. Reinhart ($894,167) - B. Gionta ($4,250,000) - J. Dupuy ($653,333) - M. Moulson ($5,000,000)
Centre: R. O'Reilly ($7,500,000) - J. Eichel ($925,000) - J. Larsson ($2,500,000) - T. Schaller ($950,000)
Leftwing: E. Kane ($5,250,000) - M. Foligno ($2,500,000) - W. Carrier ($689,167) - N. Deslauriers ($900,000)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: R. Ristolainen ($5,500,000) - Z. Bogosian ($5,142,857) - C. Nelson ($925,000)
Left: C. Fowler ($4,000,000) - B. Smith ($2,750,000) - J. Gorges ($3,900,000) - J. McCabe ($1,250,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
R. Lehner ($2,225,000) - L. Ullmark ($775,833)

BUYOUTS
C. Hodgson ($541,667) - C. Ehrhoff ($0) - V. Leino ($0)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
NHL Salary Cap: $74,000,000
LTIR: $1,500,000
Cap Hit: $65,122,024
Cap Space: $8,877,976

With just under 9M to spend on adding a forward.

 

[Jim Bob]

To Detroit: Pysyk
To Buffalo: Smith

I usually hate trades that involve Pysyk, but this one isn't bad.

My only concern is that Smith looks a lot worse in Buffalo when he's not surrounded by the types of teammates he has in Detroit.

 

[TehDoak]

I usually hate trades that involve Pysyk, but this one isn't bad.

My only concern is that Smith looks a lot worse in Buffalo when he's not surrounded by the types of teammates he has in Detroit.

My thought is that Smith is a UFA in 2017, so its a low risk acquisition. If he bombs, Gorges is back in the top 4 and McCabe is on the bottom pairing.

 

[Jim Bob]

My thought is that Smith is a UFA in 2017, so its a low risk acquisition. If he bombs, Gorges is back in the top 4 and McCabe is on the bottom pairing.

He may be a low risk acquisition. But, I wouldn't view it as a low risk trade if you are giving up Pysyk.

A low risk trade would be Franson+ for him.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Brendan Smith is straight trash. Most sheltered player on the entire Detroit blueline, don't let the stats fool you.

 

[TehDoak]

Brendan Smith is straight trash. Most sheltered player on the entire Detroit blueline, don't let the stats fool you.

I certainly see the high ozone starts and low QoC.

He's also been paired with Mike Green.

I think its a bit more solid in his own zone than McCabe at this point and would give us options to play around with different d partners for Risto and Bogosian that doesn't involve having Gorges or McCabe stapled in the top 4.

Pysyk gives us a solid bottom pair righty....Smith would give us alot more options on the LH side.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Brendan Smith is straight trash. Most sheltered player on the entire Detroit blueline, don't let the stats fool you.

Who was that guy who had great stats on Detroit's blue line a few years back - seemed like a rising star, and turned out the next season to not even be NHL material? Anyone remember? The name escapes me. I think it was the right after Lindstom stopped playing.

Edit: Ian White!

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

White had a few good seasons in Toronto and was competent his first 20 games in Calgary and then the wheels fell the **** off.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

So, I think I am beginning to sense a general consensus on the plan for this summer:

1) Leverage forward/prospect/pick depth to resolving the LHD situation. 1, potentially 2 LHD should be added.

2) Utilize remaining cap space to supplement to the top 6 forward group on a short term basis.

I like #1, I don't think #2 is necessary. Even if Bailey/Fasching are the FW prospects used to solve LHD, there is Ennis to fill in until his trade value returns (which could be a while). I'd rather keep him until that time or the expansion draft, and not bother paying for another temporary vet patch-in.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

White had a few good seasons in Toronto and was competent his first 20 games in Calgary and then the wheels fell the **** off.

He had 32 points as a sheltered player on Detroit's blueline and then basically never played in the NHL again. Makes me very skeptical of guys with good numbers being sheltered on Detroit's blue line.

 

[Djp]

Nor does even Vlasic/Hjalmarsson caliber d-men age aside...

This idea about getting a d-man like Hjalmarsson/Vlasic has pretty slight connection to the real world.

Our best bets are drafting one (or hoping some of our prospects really surprises us) or trading for a player, who is not on that level yet, but has the potential to be. Neither of Vlasic or Hjalmarsson weren't at their current form at 22 years old.

Jonas Brodin, outside of his preference of playing on the right side, fits our need pretty perfectly. You don't need too much offense from Risto's pairing. You need defensively solid player who moves well and distributes the puck well (so he can do more than just dumb the puck to the n-zone through glasses - no need for game breaking outlet passes or breath taking rushes. Risto can do the work with the puck.

I agree Brodin fits what we are looking for. Given his age Im more comfortable giving up this years first for him. I am not overpaying for him.
I would compare drafting one of the Dmen this draft even if Buffalo needed to trade up 2-3 spots vs the cost of acquiring Brodin.

I think there could be so available in next years expansion draft where some teams need to expose players.

2016 1st and Pysyk for Brodin
McCabe and 3rd for Enstrom
Sign Ben Lovejoy

Brodin-Risto
Enstrom-Bogo
Gorges-Lovejoy
x Franson

When did Enstrom's price drop to McCabe + 3rd? Last time I checked McCabe + 2017 1st was being discussed in here. Lovejoy: Why not, but Nelson has looked competent enough so far to hold down a 3rd pairing spot, to say the least.
That being said, if that's what our blueline looks like to start the season without any major assets gone, I'll be ecstatic.

You beat me to it..that jumped out as well.

If you can get Enstrom for absolutely nothing of consequence, do you even need to trade a top 8 pick for Brodin? Is betting on the upside of the pick (or a better defenseman shaking loose within the next calendar year) the better economic decision at that point?

I think Winnipeg would want Guhle and a 2nd instead of McCabe because Guhle would be exempt.

I think Enstrom is worth 2 2nds or 2nd and 3rd

I see your point. To me personally, id rather spend the asset (in this case, McCabe) plus picks and send them to Boston for Krug. Then you have a true PP QB who can log minutes and play in the top-4.

Then you could still move our 1st round pick for Brodin.

Brodin-Ristolainen
Krug-Pysyk
Gorges-Bogosian
*Nelson

I am unsure if Krug is top 4--or is he a bottom pair who can do PP?

 

[Jame]

Why would Enstrom be worth only a rental price with 2 full seasons left?

 

[Sabretooth]

I don't know. I want Enstrom though

I like Nelson so far, but I love Ben Lovejoy.

You've been talking up Lovejoy for a bit. Just wondering what it is you like about him so much that I'm not seeing? My opinion of him has been mostly negative but I probably don't watch him closely enough shift to shift. I only see the dopey plays.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

What with the improving league position & worsening draft position - I'm leaning more towards thinking that moving the 1st round pick makes total sense. It would be a shame for the fans since the draft is in Buffalo but it should all be about the on ice product. I almost want to see an unfashionable 'omg Murray overpaid again' trade to land our man at 1LD moving forward.

I noticed the other week (think I even replied to the thread) on the trade board that talk had moved back around to Brodin. Would be a great fit for sure despite his current season & if the 8-10ov pick could get it done it would be a no brainer for me.

 

[Jame]

You've been talking up Lovejoy for a bit. Just wondering what it is you like about him so much that I'm not seeing? My opinion of him has been mostly negative but I probably don't watch him closely enough shift to shift. I only see the dopey plays.

He just seems to be the perfect, stabilizing partner for young lefties... He can play tough minutes and do all the dirty work, allowing his partners to flourish. He's like Richard Smehlik... totally underappreciated. He's like a goal prevention Jedi.

Over the last four seasons... Fowler has played 40% of his ice time with Lovejoy. Here are the splits:

W/Lovejoy
2.15
1.48
+0.77

w/o Lovejoy
2.25
2.69
-0.44

Or just look at Fowler in the season they traded Lovejoy away (doh!)

w/ Lovejoy 1st half:
1.95
1.41
+0.54

w/o Loverjoy 2nd half:
2.52
3.36
-0.84

how about Doumoulin this year....
w/
1.97
1.61
+0.36

w/o
2.71
1.88
-0.83

Lovejoy has no offensive skill whatsover, and you can see he brings offense down, but he's absolutely a shutdown defensive defensemen who fits perfectly with offensive minded defensemen with... deficiencies defensively.

(oh and he does all this playing elite QOC)

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

the Calgary version of Robyn Regehr?

 

[Sabretooth]

He just seems to be the perfect, stabilizing partner for young lefties... He can play tough minutes and do all the dirty work, allowing his partners to flourish. He's like Richard Smehlik... totally underappreciated. He's like a goal prevention Jedi.

Over the last four seasons... Fowler has played 40% of his ice time with Lovejoy. Here are the splits:

W/Lovejoy
2.15
1.48
+0.77

w/o Lovejoy
2.25
2.69
-0.44

Or just look at Fowler in the season they traded Lovejoy away (doh!)

w/ Lovejoy 1st half:
1.95
1.41
+0.54

w/o Loverjoy 2nd half:
2.52
3.36
-0.84

how about Doumoulin this year....
w/
1.97
1.61
+0.36

w/o
2.71
1.88
-0.83

Lovejoy has no offensive skill whatsover, and you can see he brings offense down, but he's absolutely a shutdown defensive defensemen who fits perfectly with offensive minded defensemen with... deficiencies defensively.

(oh and he does all this playing elite QOC)

I respect your opinion and I won't try to argue how lovejoy looked on the ducks with fowler because I didn't watch him then.

But I would argue that Lovejoy on the penguins isn't the player you think he is. You've made the claim that Lovejoy has been a stabilizing presence for Dumoulin, but before I looked at any stats I would have argued that my impression was that dumoulin was the more solid player on the pair possibly propping up lovejoy. First there's a typo in your lovejoy-dumoulin: That -0.83 is actually +0.83. Dumo's numbers look better without lovejoy than with.

And you also left out Lovejoy without dumo:
2.63
2.63
0.0

Which means that Lovejoy's GA60 improves by over 1 GA60 when he plays with Dumo. So even if all I was going on was those wowy stats, I'd have to conclude that lovejoy's GA60 improved greatly playing with dumo, while dumo's GA60 is relatively unchanged whether he's playing with lovejoy or not.

I will say that lovejoy-dumo seem to have some kind of chemistry that help them both, at least in terms of GA60, but I wouldn't attribute that to lovejoy specifically. If you look down the wowy numbers, every other defenseman that lovejoy has played more than 15:00 of ice time with has worse GA60 with lovejoy than without. That doesn't support the claim that lovejoy drives goal prevention regardless of who he's partnered with.

Meanwhile you can look at the d-man who has spent the most time with dumo aside from lovejoy:

Daley with dumo:
2.94
1.70
+1.24

Daley w/o dumo:
2.32
1.94
+0.38

So there is a 2nd data point that correlates with the idea that dumo improves his defense partners.

My opinion is that Lovejoy is really just another Mike Weber. Not saying that's a bad thing (I know you like weber a lot - also kinda makes sense why you'd like lovejoy too), just that I don't see that special quality about him that makes me want to go target him specifically. He's going to make boneheaded plays and take bad penalties, but find him the right partner and role and he can be successful at that role. Same as how weber-franson just seemed to work as a properly utilized 3rd pair for a time.

 

[Jame]

Yes, chemistry matters

Lovejoy is successful against top competition, weber is not

 

[TehDoak]

Another cap strapped team to look at:

http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins

Pittsburgh

Curious where they stand with Pouliot, who has struggled to become a regular in the Penguins lineup despite lots of opportunity. Maybe something like picking up a year of Kunitz (who Bylsma is familar with) and Poulliot in exchange for some futures?