Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 3/ Post-free agency edition

[Sabre the Win]

Great use of an iconic scene/movie.

Anyways I bet McDavid had he not been injured his first season would have beat Barzal's rookie record in points. Its possible for Middlestadt to play at PPG without 5 point nights and beat Barzal. If we are talking about getting multiple 5 point nights its still possible but almost improbable.

 

[Jim Bob]

Great use of an iconic scene/movie.

Anyways I bet McDavid had he not been injured his first season would have beat Barzal's rookie record, if that had been the case we could have seen the 100 year record shattered twice. Its possible for Middlestadt to play at PPG without 5 point nights and still do it.

It's possible that Middlestadt could break the NHL rookie scoring record, Eichel breaks Gretzky's single season goals, assists, and points records, Hutton breaks Hasek's club mark for Save%, and it's possible that the Sabres win the Stanley Cup this season.

I'm just not counting on any of those things happening.

 

[Sabre the Win]

It's possible that Middlestadt could break the NHL rookie scoring record, Eichel breaks Gretzky's single season goals, assists, and points records, Hutton breaks Hasek's club mark for Save%, and it's possible that the Sabres win the Stanley Cup this season.

I'm just not counting on any of those things happening.

the thing is, Middlestadt has a better shot at doing that than any of the other things mentioned.

but I agree that all those things you mentioned are possible, however the Eichel getting 200 points in a season is like .00000001% chance of happening and .0000001% chance of McDavid or Crosby doing it or any player again. When Gretzky played the talent level was not near as good as it is now. We also know what we got with Hutton but beating Hasek sv% is possible I mean look what Lehner achieved a season ago with a 9.20 sv pct.

With Middlestadt tho, hes an unknown. He is near PPG in his NHL time already.

 

[Jim Bob]

the thing is, Middlestadt has a better shot at doing that than any of the other things mentioned.

but I agree that all those things you mentioned are possible, however the Eichel getting 200 points in a season is like .00000001% chance of happening and .0000001% chance of McDavid or Crosby doing it or any player again. When Gretzky played the talent level was not near as good as it is now. We also know what we got with Hutton but beating Hasek sv% is possible I mean look what Lehner achieved a season ago with a 9.20 sv pct.

With Middlestadt tho, hes an unknown. He is near PPG in his NHL time already.

Effective sample size - Wikipedia

Having a better chance of something that has Mega Millions winning odds isn't saying a whole lot.

 

[Husko]

McCabe did have a down season but I don't think he's as bad as you're saying he is here. He's a solid bottom 4 guy imo.

We can agree to disagree, but I don't think McCabe has ever actually been good. He has shown promise. And there have been flashes of what he could be. But he's never put together consistent, good play. He's a poor man's Dmitri Kalinin.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Effective sample size - Wikipedia

Having a better chance of something that has Mega Millions winning odds isn't saying a whole lot.

Well you continue being pessimistic I cant change your view points if you don't want to believe.

This same kind of negativity was happening on draft day and I firmly stated I believe we are going to win and we did.

Now that mentality doesn't always work like every time I buy a lottery ticket, I believe I am going to win. I haven't yet except a few dollars back here and there from encores but everytime I buy that ticket I think to myself, this time. When I don't win I go about life not regretting it and not feeling down about losing. I guess I am just a person who always try to think of the best outcome and if that outcome doesn't happen I go "oh well, next time".

ex.

I hated the O'Reilly trade, I am hopeful Thompson adds size in Rochester and makes the team next year. My positive outcome is that moving O'Reilly opens up space to try Reinhart and Middlestadt at C as well as others. As for Botterill's bad trade, "oh well, next time" and if he disappoints again my positive outcome is seeing him fired and we move on hoping for the best.

 

[Husko]

I am giving McCabe another chance, his previous seasons were not nearly as bad as last season and he claimed he had a nagging injury which was dealt with, if anything he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

If this board tells you anything, its that it only takes one not as good season for people turn on you like the people trying to throw ROR under the bus.

Agreed, wholeheartedly. But I've never been high on McCabe. I think he's always been more promise than actual performance.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Agreed, wholeheartedly. But I've never been high on McCabe. I think he's always been more promise than actual performance.

Quite true but that promise is still there, hes young. I would give him another season.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well you continue being pessimistic I cant change your view points if you don't want to believe.

One man's pessimism is another man's realism.

I expect Middlestadt to be fun to watch next season.

I do not expect him to score at slightly better than a PPG pace over the entirety of his rookie pro season.

Middlestadt played in 47 games last season. He played in 49 games in his pre-draft season. He played 66 games in the season prior.

Making the jump to playing an 82 game season will catch up to him at some point and I expect that he ends up around 45 to 55 pts. That is between where Reinhart and Eichel ended up during their rookie seasons.

If that is too pessimistic for your taste...

 

[Sabre the Win]

One man's pessimism is another man's realism.

I expect Middlestadt to be fun to watch next season.

I do not expect him to score at slightly better than a PPG pace over the entirety of his rookie pro season.

Middlestadt played in 47 games last season. He played in 49 games in his pre-draft season. He played 66 games in the season prior.

Making the jump to playing an 82 game season will catch up to him at some point and I expect that he ends up around 45 to 55 pts. That is between where Reinhart and Eichel ended up during their rookie seasons.

If that is too pessimistic for your taste...

too each their own but other players have done it, dear lord a Sabre could ever do it.

Whats the chance of Middlestadt becoming better than Eichel? or having a better rookie season than Eichel? I mean Barzal did it. Brock Boeser did it. Hell Brock Boeser has a better rookie season than Jacks 3rd.

 

[Aladyyn]

Mittelstadt's rookie season won't be as good as Reinhart's.

 

[enthusiast]

Mittelstadt's rookie season won't be as good as Reinhart's.

unfair to compare casey to the goat season

 

[Sabre the Win]

Mittelstadt's rookie season won't be as good as Reinhart's.

Why is that?

 

[Aladyyn]

Why is that?

His linemates are going to be worse.

 

[sabrebuild]

His linemates are going to be worse.

I certainly hope they don’t hang him out to dry.

I would expect him on Eichel or Reinhart’s wing if he is not productive on his own.

I suspect the opportunity and the skill will be available if he has the talent to be a 65 point player.

The bigger unknown, is he that good? I certainly wouldn’t say that what he did last year in the nhl makes me think he is remotely ready for ppg or close next year.

But with a summer of training and maturing, could he be a 60 point total by the end of the year? Ya I could see it.

Part of what pisses me off about trading O’Reilly, is that pairing mitts and O’Reilly would have been a perfect way to ease him in and provide offensive game, and still let Eichel and Reinhart take a line each, even if Mitts needed sometime.

Now if, Mitts isn’t immediately ready for prime time at center... A lot of pressure on the kid.

 

[Fezzy126]

McCabe did have a down season but I don't think he's as bad as you're saying he is here. He's a solid bottom 4 guy imo.

Agreed, and McCabe was still our best dman at defending zone entries. He was also one of our better dmen in protecting the house, so scoring chance and HD scoring chance suppression.

If you actually look at his splits, McCabe forgot how to hockey for about the first 20 games or so, but he rebounded quite nicely after that before getting hurt. People just never stopped complaining about him despite the uptick in play, opinions were already jaded. He needs the right partner more than anything else, but he can be a very valuable piece for what he brings to the table.

 

[Kyndig]

Agreed, and McCabe was still our best dman at defending zone entries. He was also one of our better dmen in protecting the house, so scoring chance and HD scoring chance suppression.

If you actually look at his splits, McCabe forgot how to hockey for about the first 20 games or so, but he rebounded quite nicely after that before getting hurt. People just never stopped complaining about him despite the uptick in play, opinions were already jaded. He needs the right partner more than anything else, but he can be a very valuable piece for what he brings to the table.

The only time McGrenade looked good was the 2 games he played with Guhle.

 

[Fezzy126]

opinions were already jaded.

The only time McGrenade looked good was the 2 games he played with Guhle.

Case & Point...

Look, I'm too lazy to go cut up game tape (job, family, two straight months of beautiful weather in the 716, they all get in the way), but:
I can show you in his splits where he went from a corsi of 46% to 51%, or a raw GF of 37% to 50%.
or
I can pull up his heat maps that show how he suppressed shots relative to the rest of the team.
or
I can reference Corey Sznajder's zone entry defense data.

If any of it would change your opinion I'll gladly put the post together...

 

[Kyndig]

Case & Point...

Look, I'm too lazy to go cut up game tape (job, family, two straight months of beautiful weather in the 716, they all get in the way), but:
I can show you in his splits where he went from a corsi of 46% to 51%, or a raw GF of 37% to 50%.
or
I can pull up his heat maps that show how he suppressed shots relative to the rest of the team.
or
I can reference Corey Sznajder's zone entry defense data.

If any of it would change your opinion I'll gladly put the post together...

Can you reference his tape to tape passes to the wrong team on break outs or how many breakways was caused by bad defensive play? Honestly wouldn't be surprised if his corsi jump had more to do with OZS than anything else. Eyeball test doesn't lie.

 

[Husko]

Case & Point...

Look, I'm too lazy to go cut up game tape (job, family, two straight months of beautiful weather in the 716, they all get in the way), but:
I can show you in his splits where he went from a corsi of 46% to 51%, or a raw GF of 37% to 50%.
or
I can pull up his heat maps that show how he suppressed shots relative to the rest of the team.
or
I can reference Corey Sznajder's zone entry defense data.

If any of it would change your opinion I'll gladly put the post together...

Yes, that would change my opinion actually. Not being snarky. I would find that persuasive.