Roster Speculation 2017-18 - Seven Deadly Roster Sins Edition

[Montag DP]

You weren't kidding about the Bipolar--just take a deep breath. He clearly meant to reply to the post above to yours and accidentally replied to yours. It's a new board system and people will do silly things like that for a while.

Lol, you did the same thing. Not sure if that was intentional or not.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

When do we think Housley is going to name the C & A's??

 

[old kummelweck]

wtf - my post had nothing to do with the tweet about the captaincy. there was a post above it about Ennis/Foligno I commented on.

yep - there was an captain tweet above you.

 

[Aladyyn]

Since Corsica is backed up I dove in to try and figure out the whole Evander Kane thing. The conclusion I've come to is: we should sign Brian Gionta.

3 line combinations with Evander Kane were above 55% xGF in 2016-17:
Kane - O'Reilly - Gionta
Kane - Larsson - Gionta
Kane - Reinhart - Okposo

Somehow, Kane - Girgensons - Gionta completely broke the pattern and ended up with an ugly <45% xGF.

What seems clear to me is that Kane should probably not be playing with Eichel.

btw, only 5 Sabres lines got >55% xGF last season. In addition to the 3 listed above it was Carrier-ROR-Okposo and Ennis-Girgensons-Reinhart

 

[Snippit]

I'd be down with Kane-Reinhart-Okposo

Girgs-Eichel-Larsson
Kane-Reinhart-Okposo
Pouliot-ROR-Pominville

So many interesting combinations to try out - I hope Housley is experimenting a lot.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Since Corsica is backed up I dove in to try and figure out the whole Evander Kane thing. The conclusion I've come to is: we should sign Brian Gionta.

3 line combinations with Evander Kane were above 55% xGF in 2016-17:
Kane - O'Reilly - Gionta
Kane - Larsson - Gionta
Kane - Reinhart - Okposo

Somehow, Kane - Girgensons - Gionta completely broke the pattern and ended up with an uF.

What seems clear to me is that Kane should probably not be playing with Eichel.

btw, only 5 Sabres lines got >55% xGF last season. In addition to the 3 listed above it was Carrier-ROR-Okposo and Ennis-Girgensons-Reinhart

I've noticed that xG isn't as instructive in these samples because they're so small. The stat tends to overrate shooting% luck in < 200 minutes, where combos with good GF% have poor xG and vice versa. For example, those 3 combos you listed had just 39% of goals scored. Kane-O'Reilly-Gionta was weirdly good at everything though (50% GF, positive corsi), so maybe there's some untapped juice in a say, Kane-O'Reilly-Griffith trio.

Gionta had really good positioning, the mobility to get to his spots in the offensive zone, and was fine with being a glue piece, so those are probably the ideal traits to look for in his replacement (again, Griffith scoring highly here).

Also, for the moment, it seems Housley is putting consistently poor exhibition play from the Kane/Pominville tandem on Poms. Kane/Eichel got going once Griffith spotted up a line, so it'll be interesting to see how long he holds that belief.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Nemeth?

Probably not much of an upgrade on Tennyson or Falk.

(Maybe on Gorges, but they're not waiving Gorges, and Nemeth certainly isn't a world beater by any means.)


Does Vegas start with highest waiver priority since for the first month it's based on the previous year standings?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I've noticed that xG isn't as instructive in these samples because they're so small. The stat tends to overrate shooting% luck in < 200 minutes, where combos with good GF% have poor xG and vice versa. For example, those 3 combos you listed had just 39% of goals scored. Kane-O'Reilly-Gionta was weirdly good at everything though (50% GF, positive corsi), so maybe there's some untapped juice in a say, Kane-O'Reilly-Griffith trio.

Gionta had really good positioning, the mobility to get to his spots in the offensive zone, and was fine with being a glue piece, so those are probably the ideal traits to look for in his replacement (again, Griffith scoring highly here).

Also, for the moment, it seems Housley is putting consistently poor exhibition play from the Kane/Pominville tandem on Poms. Kane/Eichel got going once Griffith spotted up a line, so it'll be interesting to see how long he holds that belief.

xG isn't a particularly good stat at the moment, end of statement. Even amongst the people who buy into the stat there isn't agreement on how to measure the expected values.

 

[Chainshot]

Surprised there isn't more teeth gnashing here over Jagr's deal with Calgary.

 

[PG Canuck]

Where does McCabe slot in when healthy?

 

[Dreakon13]

Where does McCabe slot in when healthy?

I think most picture this lineup when everyone is back...

Scandella-Risto
Beaulieu-Bogosian
McCabe-Antipin

 

[Jim Bob]

Surprised there isn't more teeth gnashing here over Jagr's deal with Calgary.

I saw the $1M+$1M in incentives and I wondered why Botts didn't offer up $2M guaranteed.

The only reason I can see is that Housley worried that he wouldn't be able to keep up the pace that he wants to play at???

 

[Dreakon13]

I have nothing to back this up, but I could've sworn Jagr has been pretty outspoken in the past about not liking Buffalo. Whether it was the management, the team, the city, etc... I don't know. But if there's any truth to that, I'm guessing the price would be pretty steep for his services, even at this point. If there's even a price to put on it.

 

[TehDoak]

Surprised there isn't more teeth gnashing here over Jagr's deal with Calgary.

Pretty sure the conversation with Jagr's agent and Botterill went something like this:


So uhh, would you like to sign Jagr?

An aging power play specialist who gets slower every year?

 

[joshjull]

 

[joshjull]

 

[dasaybz]

Pretty sad that neither Bailey or Baptiste could make a roster spot over Griffith. I know it's a little premature now, but when do we pull the plug on those 2, and just move on.

I wonder if Nylander gets a legit look at this lineup when he's healthy, there's a RW spot there with his name all over it.

 

[joshjull]

 

[brian_griffin]

Surprised there isn't more teeth gnashing here over Jagr's deal with Calgary.

I saw the $1M+$1M in incentives and I wondered why Botts didn't offer up $2M guaranteed.

The only reason I can see is that Housley worried that he wouldn't be able to keep up the pace that he wants to play at???

Possibly, but Jagr's probably still better at keeping the puck away from opponents than Moulson (and I'm not knocking Moulson).

'bout time to kill this and start the Regular Season Now Open For Business thread...

 

[Sabretooth]

Pretty sad that neither Bailey or Baptiste could make a roster spot over Griffith. I know it's a little premature now, but when do we pull the plug on those 2, and just move on.

I wonder if Nylander gets a legit look at this lineup when he's healthy, there's a RW spot there with his name all over it.

Since Nylander didn't have a chance to show what he can do in camp I suspect he's going to have to show it in Rochester first. I think (read: hope) the days of experimenting to see if a player is ready by just trial and error are behind us now.

As for bailey/baptiste, no reason to pull the plug until you need the contract spots for better prospects/players. My guess is worst case they'll be worth keeping around for 2 more years at which point they'll both likely have reached the requirements to be considered an AHL vet and the decision will need to be made to keep them counting towards one of the limited AHL vet slots or let go for better options. If neither breaks out this year, they'll both sign their 1 year QO after this season.

 

[jBuds]

GOtta love Hamilton complaining about Housley’s secrecy around injuries as if he’s the first coach since ‘Nam to feign ignorance...

Hamilton has worn on me to no end. It has been a decade long deterioration

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Dave Davis has an article about Bailey and Baptiste on his Buffalo Star website where he's got quotes from scouts about them. If anybody here subscribes please post those quotes here.

 

[dasaybz]

GOtta love Hamilton complaining about Housley’s secrecy around injuries as if he’s the first coach since ‘Nam to feign ignorance...

Hamilton has worn on me to no end. It has been a decade long deterioration

He's absolutely awful, and I'm surprised anyone on that team would speak to him after that crap storm at the end of the year last year ...