Speculation: Roster Speculation: 2017-18 Part 1

[sabrebuild]

I want to see ROR-Eichel utilized together when we shorten the bench late in games, down a goal.

I do not want to see ROR-Eichel as a primary line pairing... I hate the idea of a 7.5 million dollar winger for an elite franchise center.

I don't think I want it long term, and my desire to see it is probably more rooted in how obvious the option was for the last two years. Perhaps Eichel is past needing the help. That I'm not sure of.

I don't mind the salary implications this year at all. Next year when jack is making 8 million, then ya the cap makes the move less practical.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

1. Less than $1.23MM No compensation
2. $1.23MM to $1.87MM Third-round pick
3. $1.87MM to $3.75MM Second-round pick
4. $3.75MM to $5.63MM First and third-round picks
5. $5.63MM to $7.51MM First, second and third-round picks
6. $7.51MM to $9.38MM Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
7. Over $9.38MM Four first-round picks

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/points/all/all/rfa

I like these as options to explore:
Sheary, De Haan, Fast, Pysyk (LOL), Grubauer in 3;
Dumoulin, Faksa in 3 to 4 bracket (?); They probably match 3.
Drouin, Schulz, Burakovsky, Orlov in 4
Ghost in 4 to 5 bracket (?); They probably match 4.
Pastrnak in 5;
Parayko, Draisaitl in 5 to 6 bracket; They probably match in 5?

Yeah, the vast majority of these are likely matched, but some odd one may slip through and get unmatched and we get a decent player that would impact the team for futures. The list is quite interesting this year and I haven't even included some other top names available like Kuzi, Toffoli, Wennberg, etc.

 

[Paxon]

1. Less than $1.23MM No compensation
2. $1.23MM to $1.87MM Third-round pick
3. $1.87MM to $3.75MM Second-round pick
4. $3.75MM to $5.63MM First and third-round picks
5. $5.63MM to $7.51MM First, second and third-round picks
6. $7.51MM to $9.38MM Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
7. Over $9.38MM Four first-round picks

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/points/all/all/rfa

I like these as options to explore:
Sheary, De Haan, Fast, Pysyk (LOL), Grubauer in 3;
Dumoulin, Faksa in 3 to 4 bracket (?); They probably match 3.
Drouin, Schulz, Burakovsky, Orlov in 4
Ghost in 4 to 5 bracket (?); They probably match 4.
Pastrnak in 5;
Parayko, Draisaitl in 5 to 6 bracket; They probably match in 5?

Yeah, the vast majority of these are likely matched, but some odd one may slip through and get unmatched and we get a decent player that would impact the team for futures. The list is quite interesting this year and I haven't even included some other top names available like Kuzi, Toffoli, Wennberg, etc.

You can cross Sheary, Dumoulin, and Schultz off the list. There is a 0% chance of Botterill offersheeting a Penguin. A trade, sure, but not a sheet.

 

[threeVo]

Parayko will get 7+ on a longterm deal and Drai is probably getting close to 8 if the term is 6+ for both

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

You can cross Sheary, Dumoulin, and Schultz off the list. There is a 0% chance of Botterill offersheeting a Penguin. A trade, sure, but not a sheet.

Yeah, I doubt he offersheets Pitt players but Im sure he has some favorites over there that he wants to bring over and Pitt is against the cap so maybe they wouldn't be too much against the return they wld get on an offersheet...whether that happens through offersheet or trade is technicality. Im sure they will be the first team he will tak trades with maybe after Vegas.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Parayko will get 7+ on a longterm deal and Drai is probably getting close to 8 if the term is 6+ for both

Hence why I noted they match in bracket 5. I agree for these we likely have t ogo in Bracket 6, but I personally would do it. Both are absolutely studs.

 

[threeVo]

Hence why I noted they match in bracket 5. I agree for these we likely have t ogo in Bracket 6, but I personally would do it. Both are absolutely studs.

Ah sorry didnt read it all thought that was the $ amount not the bracket

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Ah sorry didnt read it all thought that was the $ amount not the bracket

No worries. I'll put it like that - either of them makes us instant contenders IMO when added to what we already have (with some minor cheap additions) even if we drop fair amount of futures for it.

 

[haseoke39]

Hence why I noted they match in bracket 5. I agree for these we likely have t ogo in Bracket 6, but I personally would do it. Both are absolutely studs.

Neither team is in financial straits. They match without blinking.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Neither team is in financial straits. They match without blinking.

Let them match, but only one way to find out if they do. Don't see us losing anything if they match, this unwritten rule stuff is silly. The official rule is there, use it and if a team decides to match - good for them and the player. I am not 100% sure they match in bracket 6 myself even if they likely do.

 

[haseoke39]

Let them match, but only one way to find out if they do. Don't see us losing anything if they match, this unwritten rule stuff is silly. The official rule is there, use it and if a team decides to match - good for them and the player. I am not 100% sure they match in bracket 6 myself even if they likely do.

I just don't see the point. We have bigger long term cap problems than the teams we'd be poaching from. Going about it backwards.

 

[Sabretooth]

1. Less than $1.23MM No compensation
2. $1.23MM to $1.87MM Third-round pick
3. $1.87MM to $3.75MM Second-round pick
4. $3.75MM to $5.63MM First and third-round picks
5. $5.63MM to $7.51MM First, second and third-round picks
6. $7.51MM to $9.38MM Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
7. Over $9.38MM Four first-round picks

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/points/all/all/rfa

I like these as options to explore:
Sheary, De Haan, Fast, Pysyk (LOL), Grubauer in 3;
Dumoulin, Faksa in 3 to 4 bracket (?); They probably match 3.
Drouin, Schulz, Burakovsky, Orlov in 4
Ghost in 4 to 5 bracket (?); They probably match 4.
Pastrnak in 5;
Parayko, Draisaitl in 5 to 6 bracket; They probably match in 5?

Yeah, the vast majority of these are likely matched, but some odd one may slip through and get unmatched and we get a decent player that would impact the team for futures. The list is quite interesting this year and I haven't even included some other top names available like Kuzi, Toffoli, Wennberg, etc.

Point to remember - the offer sheet compensation calculation is the total contract value divided by 5 at most. So something like 7yrs 7per which you'd think is in bracket 5 is actually 49/5 = 9.8 and therefore bracket 7. This comes into play when the offer sheet contract length is greater than 5 years.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I just don't see the point. We have bigger long term cap problems than the teams we'd be poaching from. Going about it backwards.

Huh? What are our long term cap issues?

Kane, Bogo, Kulikov, Gorges, Ennis, Moulson are likely off the books soon, which is a great amount of cap relief. Don't renew some of them, some go to Vegas (expansion draft+including maybe some borderline cap dump like Ennis for nothing return).

The only core pieces that are staying here on expensive contracts are
ROR
Okposo
Eichel
Reinhart
Risto

That is probably about 30-35 mil in cap. Add in maybe 5ish for a good goalie. Add in 1 more top talent like the 2 above and the rest is cheap filler. This is exactly what Bott managed in Pittsburg.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Point to remember - the offer sheet compensation calculation is the total contract value divided by 5 at most. So something like 7yrs 7per which you'd think is in bracket 5 is actually 49/5 = 9.8 and therefore bracket 7. This comes into play when the offer sheet contract length is greater than 5 years.

Yeah, I know. Good point. The top guns I'd only offer on 5,max 6 year contracts, otherwise it truly becomes painful as you go in the 4 firsts bracket... Not saying it would be easy to steal them, but can't see how we suffer from trying our luck

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Point to remember - the offer sheet compensation calculation is the total contract value divided by 5 at most. So something like 7yrs 7per which you'd think is in bracket 5 is actually 49/5 = 9.8 and therefore bracket 7. This comes into play when the offer sheet contract length is greater than 5 years.

Right. Which is why if we can get Eichel extended for 8 years right on 7/1 and Draisaitl remains unsigned that it'd be great to shoot Draisaitl a 9.379 x 5 offer sheet. That's over 46 million in 5 years. Payback for the Oilers ****ing us over with Vanek. Would love to OS Draisaitl at 9.3 making them have to pay 20+ mil for him and McDavid, if not we get a budding superstar for a few firsts.

 

[Dingo44]

Hey it's the annual "Let's Fantasize About Offer Sheets" ritual.

Who wants to put money on it not happening with the Sabres? I'd bet no one offers an offer sheet to anyone on any team.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Right. Which is why if we can get Eichel extended for 8 years right on 7/1 and Draisaitl remains unsigned that it'd be great to shoot Draisaitl a 9.379 x 5 offer sheet. That's over 46 million in 5 years. Payback for the Oilers ****ing us over with Vanek. Would love to OS Draisaitl at 9.3 making them have to pay 20+ mil for him and McDavid, if not we get a budding superstar for a few firsts.

I'd rather have Parayko purely for the better need fit. But **** it, either works as long as we finally become contender again.

... not to distract from the fact that are many lesser players that could potentially come to us for much lower compensation and our roster could definitely benefit from them.

I'm interested what people think about Ghost? Philly are at the cap with not much coming off and they have Provorov as stud D for the future. Do we want him and at what point Phily say, "**** it, have him, we'll take the compensation instead".

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Hey it's the annual "Let's Fantasize About Offer Sheets" ritual.

Who wants to put money on it not happening with the Sabres? I'd bet no one offers an offer sheet to anyone on any team.

The reason I opened the topic is Botts specifically said he's ready to look into what can be done via RFA since UFA market is pretty much dead these days (fact). Can't ask for a clearer sign that it may become an option at this point in time.

 

[Der Jaeger]

ROR's GF/GA differential with Okposo is better than with any other player he's played at least 300 minutes with over the last 4 years... and by a significant margin among forwards.

Player Diff
OKPOSO, KYLE 0.76
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 0.47
TANGUAY, ALEX 0.44
REINHART, SAM 0.39
ENNIS, TYLER 0.34
MACKINNON, NATHAN 0.18
MOULSON, MATT 0.17
O_REILLY, RYAN -0.13
DUCHENE, MATT -0.23
PARENTEAU, PIERRE -0.61
MCGINN, JAMIE -0.63
GIONTA, BRIAN -0.9
KANE, EVANDER -1.09

I understand the possession argument for putting them together, and it's a good one. I think that Reinhart and Okposo together can be better, but I don't think I've got the sample size to actually prove it.

It would've been great had Bylsma had tried different line combinations to test them out for longer than a handful of games. And since he hardly played Reinhart at center, I have no legs to stand on proving my argument.

I'm going off watching play styles. I could be wrong.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I want to see ROR-Eichel utilized together when we shorten the bench late in games, down a goal.

I do not want to see ROR-Eichel as a primary line pairing... I hate the idea of a 7.5 million dollar winger for an elite franchise center.

Same.

I'm on a cell so I can't easily efit what I quote.

I agree the 3 line offensive system. With Eichel. Teinhart, ROR/

Nashville isn't different. They can run 3 offensive lines sine the have 3 scoring wingers.

They can, but they don't. And they don't need to, since their defense is pushing the play.

 

[Aladyyn]

Right. Which is why if we can get Eichel extended for 8 years right on 7/1 and Draisaitl remains unsigned that it'd be great to shoot Draisaitl a 9.379 x 5 offer sheet. That's over 46 million in 5 years. Payback for the Oilers ****ing us over with Vanek. Would love to OS Draisaitl at 9.3 making them have to pay 20+ mil for him and McDavid, if not we get a budding superstar for a few firsts.

Paying 9M for the 5th best player on the team sounds like a brilliant idea.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Hey it's the annual "Let's Fantasize About Offer Sheets" ritual.

Who wants to put money on it not happening with the Sabres? I'd bet no one offers an offer sheet to anyone on any team.

We're an offseason removed from Dougie Hamilton being traded because of the threat of one.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Right. Which is why if we can get Eichel extended for 8 years right on 7/1 and Draisaitl remains unsigned that it'd be great to shoot Draisaitl a 9.379 x 5 offer sheet. That's over 46 million in 5 years. Payback for the Oilers ****ing us over with Vanek. Would love to OS Draisaitl at 9.3 making them have to pay 20+ mil for him and McDavid, if not we get a budding superstar for a few firsts.

I get what you're saying, but I'm not taking the risk that Edmonton doesn't match.

Imagine Chiarelli not matching, and now the Sabres have Draisaitl making that type of money... which would be more than Eichel.

Now Botterill has a disgruntled Eichel, and team disgruntled because an outside is making superstar center money coming off one great year. That tears apart the team. And Edmonton gets 4 firsts.

I would never take that type of chance. Too risky for too little reward.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Paying 9M for the 5th best player on the team sounds like a brilliant idea.

5th? Your statements are sometimes frankly ridiculous. Drais becomes instantly Top3 if he comes here. He is a notch below Eichel for me. Yeah, I know, he played with McJesus blah blah...Still easily Top3 in our team with potential for Top2 in an year or two when he is fully developed.
For the record, I go up to 8.75 only, higher may be overpayment in case it goes through. If Edmonton matches, good for them.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I get what you're saying, but I'm not taking the risk that Edmonton doesn't match.

Imagine Chiarelli not matching, and now the Sabres have Draisaitl making that type of money... which would be more than Eichel.

Now Botterill has a disgruntled Eichel, and team disgruntled because an outside is making superstar center money coming off one great year. That tears apart the team. And Edmonton gets 4 firsts.

I would never take that type of chance. Too risky for too little reward.

As I said above 8.75 to Drais for me is the max, 9.0-9.5 to Eichel when his time comes. Doubt he's exactly angry at that lol He's supposed to be a "winner" so Im sure he would understand what having Draisaitl on our team makes us. If you are desperate, trade Reinhart when his time for new contract comes and you can't fit him on acceptable to him contract. I take Drais over Reinhart on my team any day.

I honestly don't know if Edmonton matches 8.75 4-5 years (whatever gets him to non UFA status) and also I don't know if it is of interest to Drais as he may prefer longer, slightly lower contract and stay in Edmonton anyway. But as I said, we got nothing to lose