Salary Cap: Roster going forward (Or: How the cap is coming to kill us)

[2020 Cup Champions]

Per our misplaced discussion in that other thread (TKO thread? I've forgotten now), interesting things are going to be happening for us with regards to the salary cap. Hopefully we move on from Carle this summer. Stamkos' and Kucherov's new contracts hit us in 2016/17, but other than that it's pretty boring. I'm going to fast forward to 17/18 and throw some numbers at you guys so you can tell me I'm crazy.

Green numbers are extant contracts, yellow are estimates (many of them likely wildly offbase).
Here goes!

Assumptions:

• Trade Carle this summer for literally anything (no retention assumed)
• Garrison+Coburn are off the roster one way or another
• Not touching goalies because who knows
• We stick with Vladdy and Brayden Point vanishes into thin air
• Palat+Johnson take 7m to stay together
• Killorn is gone somehow
• Get rid of a RHD the following year(18/19) to make room for DeAngelo
• Kucherov's deal is some kind of multiyear improvement on the "thank you but prove it" contracts that Palat and Johnson got (4x4m? Is that going to be enough? I think we can offer him a contract this offseason)

Forward
=====

Erne-Stamkos-Drouin
(0.894)-(10m)-(???)

Palat-Johnson-Kucherov
(7m)-(7m)-(4m)

JAM?Ikonen?-Namestnikov-Callahan
(1m)-(2m)-(5.8m)

JAM?Ikonen?-Paquette-Brown
(0.9)-(1.3m)-(1.3m)

Defense
=====

Hedman-Stralman
(8m)-(4.5m)

Koekkoek?-Sustr?(If we still haven't moved on from him)
(2m)-(3m)

Nesterov-Witkowski?Blujus?
(1.8m)-(1.25)

=========================================
What I have listed here thus far is 61.744m towards whatever the cap is. If the cap goes up to 71 this year and 2m per year thereafter (not necessarily a safe assumption) then we'd still have about 13ish million to play with (according to my original proposal).

If I get multiple people to agree on where I've lowballed some guys, I'll make the appropriate adjustments and report the changes below.

Click to read more...

 

[xteesy]

We're not moving Boyle, he's been one of the biggest diamond's in the rough we didn't know we had this year.

Erne I seriously doubt is going to make the first line.

If I had to guess, we're going to see Kucherov get traded (maybe?) and Johnson/Palat joining Stamkos.

I want to keep Kucherov, but I don't think he's as sold on us as Johnny/Pally and he's going to get PAID when the time comes. On top of that, I don't think we can afford all of TKO, Stamkos, Drouin, Bishop, Hedman, and 2-3 more D men.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

We're not moving Boyle, he's been one of the biggest diamond's in the rough we didn't know we had this year.

Erne I seriously doubt is going to make the first line.

If I had to guess, we're going to see Kucherov get traded (maybe?) and Johnson/Palat joining Stamkos.

I want to keep Kucherov, but I don't think he's as sold on us as Johnny/Pally and he's going to get PAID when the time comes. On top of that, I don't think we can afford all of TKO, Stamkos, Drouin, Bishop, Hedman, and 2-3 more D men.

lol you should be a toronto fan or something do you know kucherovs story do you listen the kids interviews?? do you know he came to stevie???

to ask for a guy moving forward who will HAVE more loyalty to steve and this organization i will flat out bet you the name is CLUTCH PERIOD.

just a way from out in left field i would bet he takes exact same money as drej and tyjo and that drouin will do same down road and we keep doing that with these kids why???

we set a presidence with it just like detroit did with not moving higher then lidstrom etc.. they lost one guy who bolted pardon the pun to chicago in hossa but besides flipper hating the coach they didnt lose many others in awhile that they shouldnt have lost.

steve has set it all up right these guys love each other we aint losing core

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

Per our misplaced discussion in that other thread (TKO thread? I've forgotten now), interesting things are going to be happening for us with regards to the salary cap. Hopefully we move on from Carle this summer. Stamkos' and Kucherov's new contracts hit us in 2016/17, but other than that it's pretty boring. I'm going to fast forward to 17/18 and throw some numbers at you guys so you can tell me I'm crazy.

Green numbers are extant contracts, yellow are estimates (many of them likely wildly offbase).
Here goes!

Assumptions:

• Trade Carle this summer for literally anything (no retention assumed)
• Garrison+Coburn are off the roster one way or another
• Not touching goalies because who knows
• We stick with Vladdy and Brayden Point vanishes into thin air
• Palat+Johnson take 7m to stay together
• Killorn is gone somehow
• Get rid of a RHD the following year(18/19) to make room for DeAngelo
• Kucherov's deal is some kind of multiyear improvement on the "thank you but prove it" contracts that Palat and Johnson got (4x4m? Is that going to be enough? I think we can offer him a contract this offseason)

Forward
=====

Erne-Stamkos-Drouin
(0.894)-(10m)-(???)

Palat-Johnson-Kucherov
(7m)-(7m)-(4m)

JAM?Ikonen?-Namestnikov-Callahan
(1m)-(2m)-(5.8m)

JAM?Ikonen?-Paquette-Brown
(0.9)-(1.3m)-(1.3m)

Defense
=====

Hedman-Stralman
(8m)-(4.5m)

Koekkoek?-Sustr?(If we still haven't moved on from him)
(2m)-(3m)

Nesterov-Witkowski?Blujus?
(1.8m)-(1.25)

=========================================
What I have listed here thus far is 61.744m towards whatever the cap is. If the cap goes up to 71 this year and 2m per year thereafter (not necessarily a safe assumption) then we'd still have about 13ish million to play with (according to my original proposal).

If I get multiple people to agree on where I've lowballed some guys, I'll make the appropriate adjustments and report the changes below.

cant even begin with this one honestly just wow killorn is gonna stay if he keeps improving and playing like this we keep our core

we have no worries till toronto wants to sell whole team for stamkos which they will make an insane offer that steve will actually listen to cause will be that INSANE.

We will keep our core easily its not hard was set up right they love each other that is key they are unselfish and humble those are the guys we will keep and we have the stars seeming to be that

unselfish and humble !!! Starssssssssssssssssssss count your blessings but we will be fine some guys move but will not really be core of the triplets or stamkos or drouin or hedman etc..

 

[RDTBay4]

Why are you guys so high on Drouin? He's done nothing.

 

[Werewolf]

Why are you guys so high on Drouin? He's done nothing.

Cause we actually watch the games...

 

[The Macho King]

Cause we actually watch the games...

Well he actually has a point. If it came down to a member of TKO and Drouin, who would you rather lose? I think Drouin is going to be great, but you just don't mess with that chemistry.

 

[Werewolf]

I get is fun to do this...but so much still up in the air honestly its gonna be very hard to predict out until 2017. Plus we gave up a 1st and 3rd for Coburn plus Gudas...I have to believe he is in the long term plans of the organization. We have nobody that can replace a 6'5" defenseman like him on the right side of our defense. And Garrison is signed through 2018 so why wouldn't he be in the plans?

At the moment I'd surely extend Coburn - there are no signs of him slowing down and is a key cog in our defense. The extension may be 4 yrs - $20 Million? He moved his entire family here...so maybe a bit of a discount to keep the band together?

Barberio is gone.

Sustr has not done much to deserve a pay day. So at $3M ... don't think so. He'll probably take $1.5M for 2 years this off-season...and then we'll move on after that with some of the other talent we have available. He can catch a payday to be on a non-contender's top 4.

And that's pretty much our defense.

Hedman @ $8M (2017 - 26 yrs old)
Stralman @ $4.5M (2017 - 31 yrs old)
Garrison @ $4.6M (2017 - 33 yrs old)
Coburn @ $5M (2017 - 33 yrs old)
Koekkoek @ $2M (2017 - 23 yrs old)
DeAngelo @ $2M (2017 - 22 yrs old)

That is a $26M defense...and better than the one we got now with the ages shown at start of 2017 season. The oldest player will still only be 33 years old - this is a top 5 defense in the NHL.

 

[Werewolf]

Well he actually has a point. If it came down to a member of TKO and Drouin, who would you rather lose? I think Drouin is going to be great, but you just don't mess with that chemistry.

He had no point. Drouin will be better than any single player on TKO - higher ceiling than all of them. I'd take Drouin ALL DAY over what Kucherov was last year. I really don't need to explain to you the reason for his performance...I know you know it well enough.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

I get is fun to do this...but so much still up in the air honestly its gonna be very hard to predict out until 2017. Plus we gave up a 1st and 3rd for Coburn plus Gudas...I have to believe he is in the long term plans of the organization. We have nobody that can replace a 6'5" defenseman like him on the right side of our defense. And Garrison is signed through 2018 so why wouldn't he be in the plans?

At the moment I'd surely extend Coburn - there are no signs of him slowing down and is a key cog in our defense. The extension may be 4 yrs - $20 Million? He moved his entire family here...so maybe a bit of a discount to keep the band together?

Barberio is gone.

Sustr has not done much to deserve a pay day. So at $3M ... don't think so. He'll probably take $1.5M for 2 years this off-season...and then we'll move on after that with some of the other talent we have available. He can catch a payday to be on a non-contender's top 4.

And that's pretty much our defense.

Hedman @ $8M (2017 - 26 yrs old)
Stralman @ $4.5M (2017 - 31 yrs old)
Garrison @ $4.6M (2017 - 33 yrs old)
Coburn @ $5M (2017 - 33 yrs old)
Koekkoek @ $2M (2017 - 23 yrs old)
DeAngelo @ $2M (2017 - 22 yrs old)

That is a $26M defense...and better than the one we got now with the ages shown at start of 2017 season. The oldest player will still only be 33 years old - this is a top 5 defense in the NHL.

i agree with this its too far out and until we know stamkos situation for sure who knows what is ahead of us.

what will say i believe stamkos stays hedman stays i agree since day one i said coburn here to stay carle gone

think the core is set not sure deangelo is full time in 2017 but yes on team is others too who will be decent players

garrison might move in time carle as said days are numbered he will stay next year cause dont have to move him but dont see him here the year after that

i actually see killorn earning a spot if keeps playing like this he is coming into own took him till now to show what he could consistently do hes being rewarded finally for the effort which is awesome to see
jt brown if could learn to switch it up as comes in just moving puck back hand at times etc.. would also be a keeper in future i still feel he will find that scoring touch to match ability in time we will see if we keep him on the cheap a bit or not

others we might move at end of terms and got to figure cap is going up soon playoffs like this has to draw more fans adding eichel and hmmm the other kid lol should bring more life to bad teams and help them out movement of good gm's coaches etc..

really has been solid year for growth in nhl two last second goals i mean this has to bring more fans

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

He had no point. Drouin will be better than any single player on TKO - higher ceiling than all of them. I'd take Drouin ALL DAY over what Kucherov was last year. I really don't need to explain to you the reason for his performance...I know you know it well enough.

i still think kucherov might wind up better and tyjo i cant even begin to think what his bar is cause as said earlier in postseason he is the guy i dont get at all hes just that dammed good why he got that first deal haha before drej and i get drej and love drej lol

tyler johnson at that size should not manhandle other centers defensively but hes done that all year now he shows he is flat out gamer in playoffs and took his game into a stratesphere of very few players in a very long time just hats off to this kid

i think next year kucherov jumps like johnson has done in playoffs which is just flat out scary to think about

 

[IdealisticSniper]

Hedman is not getting 8M. Where do you people come up with this stuff.

Just because some idiotic GMs hand out ridiculous amounts of players doesn't mean TB will. Hedman will get 6-6.5.

Yzerman has set us up just fine. There are some bloated contracts that can easily be moved even if the return isn't great.

I'm not worried in the least and I can almost guarantee we won't be losing any of he triplets, Stamkos, or Hedman/Stralman.

 

[bov]

I'm not even remotely concerned about running into any kind of serious cap issue tbh. Carle, Filppula, Bishop, Garrison and Coburn could all be gone by the beginning of the '16-'17 season.

 

[dechire]

Predicting the cap hits and roster for 2017-18 is impossible to do now. Players will improve or decline. Players will get moved. Rookies will break out. Stamkos will sign for anywhere in a 3m range. Other players will take discounts or get a pay day. For all we know Hedman wins a Norris next year and gets a huge contract. Vasy might take over in the next year or he might be 3 years away. How many people in 2012-13 predicted TKO's impact ?

 

[DFC]

Hedman is not getting 8M. Where do you people come up with this stuff.

Just because some idiotic GMs hand out ridiculous amounts of players doesn't mean TB will. Hedman will get 6-6.5.

Yzerman has set us up just fine. There are some bloated contracts that can easily be moved even if the return isn't great.

I'm not worried in the least and I can almost guarantee we won't be losing any of he triplets, Stamkos, or Hedman/Stralman.

We're not going to pay Hedman 0.2-0.7 more than we pay Callahan. $8m is a pretty good figure, IMO. As long as he has two good years, he'll be a very established #1 in the league. And by that time there will be plenty of #1s making more than $8m, and he'll slot in behind them. The Subban deal set the bar for Dmen.

I don't think we'll lose him either. But that doesn't mean we won't pay him big. Same with Stamkos and TKO. It'll be other parts moving out. We'll depend on our drafting to replace the losses.

 

[Rschmitz]

Not that the cap isn't fair game to talk about, but I would rather wait until everything is over with to worry about it. There will be months of boring waiting to bang around all of these projections

 

[DFC]

Not that the cap isn't fair game to talk about, but I would rather wait until everything is over with to worry about it. There will be months of boring waiting to bang around all of these projections

That's only three games from now.

 

[IdealisticSniper]

We're not going to pay Hedman 0.2-0.7 more than we pay Callahan. $8m is a pretty good figure, IMO. As long as he has two good years, he'll be a very established #1 in the league. And by that time there will be plenty of #1s making more than $8m, and he'll slot in behind them. The Subban deal set the bar for Dmen.

I don't think we'll lose him either. But that doesn't mean we won't pay him big. Same with Stamkos and TKO. It'll be other parts moving out. We'll depend on our drafting to replace the losses.

Subban was handled completely incompetently. Unless the cap goes to 80M in the next two years, he's not gonna get 8M per. My guess is 8 years at about 6.5M cap hit. Yzerman isn't going to screw himself over.

 

[HowSweeeedeItIs]

Why are you guys so high on Drouin? He's done nothing.

Oh my......

 

[Iceman]

Why are you guys so high on Drouin? He's done nothing.

Cooper's brother?

 

[The Gongshow]

Hedman @ $8M (2017 - 26 yrs old) (I think Hedman will take 6-7, he only makes 4 right now)
Stralman @ $4.5M (2017 - 31 yrs old)
Garrison @ $4.6M (2017 - 33 yrs old)
Coburn @ $5M (2017 - 33 yrs old)
Koekkoek @ $2M (2017 - 23 yrs old)
DeAngelo @ $2M (2017 - 22 yrs old)

That is a $26M defense...and better than the one we got now with the ages shown at start of 2017 season. The oldest player will still only be 33 years old - this is a top 5 defense in the NHL.

This is also what I want the defence to be by then, add Nesterov as the 7th D

as for the forwards, it all depends on what we give Stamkos. He makes 7.5 so i'm hoping for like 9, 9.5 although he'll probably get 10.

I don't think Palat and Johnson will get the same deals, I think Johnson will get a little bit more, but both will want to stay together in Tampa. Kucherov is 50/50 he could go somewhere and get paid or stay in tampa and make some good money, depends if he likes it here as much as Palat and TyJo. Bottom 6 is a mystery to me right now.

 

[HowSweeeedeItIs]

Cooper's brother?

Cooper himself?

 

[x Karlsson x 65]

Sorry if this is the wrong place but I noticed you don't have Killorn in your lineup. I was wondering whatd it take to pry him out if he's not in your plans and since you maybe need room for Drouin on Stamkos's line.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Sorry if this is the wrong place but I noticed you don't have Killorn in your lineup. I was wondering whatd it take to pry him out if he's not in your plans and since you maybe need room for Drouin on Stamkos's line.

Well, it seems we're not sure if we actually have to lose him. I asked for a 2016 1st from the Penguins under the assumption that we can't pay him. How much better can you do?

 

[Todd1a]

Per our misplaced discussion in that other thread (TKO thread? I've forgotten now), interesting things are going to be happening for us with regards to the salary cap. Hopefully we move on from Carle this summer. Stamkos' and Kucherov's new contracts hit us in 2016/17, but other than that it's pretty boring. I'm going to fast forward to 17/18 and throw some numbers at you guys so you can tell me I'm crazy.

Green numbers are extant contracts, yellow are estimates (many of them likely wildly offbase).
Here goes!

Assumptions:

• Trade Carle this summer for literally anything (no retention assumed)
• Garrison+Coburn are off the roster one way or another
• Not touching goalies because who knows
• We stick with Vladdy and Brayden Point vanishes into thin air
• Palat+Johnson take 7m to stay together
• Killorn is gone somehow
• Get rid of a RHD the following year(18/19) to make room for DeAngelo
• Kucherov's deal is some kind of multiyear improvement on the "thank you but prove it" contracts that Palat and Johnson got (4x4m? Is that going to be enough? I think we can offer him a contract this offseason)

Forward
=====

Erne-Stamkos-Drouin
(0.894)-(10m)-(???)

Palat-Johnson-Kucherov
(7m)-(7m)-(4m)

JAM?Ikonen?-Namestnikov-Callahan
(1m)-(2m)-(5.8m)

JAM?Ikonen?-Paquette-Brown
(0.9)-(1.3m)-(1.3m)

Defense
=====

Hedman-Stralman
(8m)-(4.5m)

Koekkoek?-Sustr?(If we still haven't moved on from him)
(2m)-(3m)

Nesterov-Witkowski?Blujus?
(1.8m)-(1.25)

=========================================
What I have listed here thus far is 61.744m towards whatever the cap is. If the cap goes up to 71 this year and 2m per year thereafter (not necessarily a safe assumption) then we'd still have about 13ish million to play with (according to my original proposal).

If I get multiple people to agree on where I've lowballed some guys, I'll make the appropriate adjustments and report the changes below.

coburn is a guy I hope we get signed 4 year deal 4.5 per year. Trade carle for a 2nd round draft pick this summer. I think in two years we then move flipper somewhere.