Yep...that's my issue...the steady drip-drip of draft picks....a fifth piddled away in the Kassian deal...a sixth in the Etem trade....a second for Vey (in the minors); a third for Pedan (in the minors)...I realize they're only late picks, but dammit the Canucks picked up Ben Hutton and Kevin Bieksa in the fifth round; and Hansen in the 9th round...you just never know.
Confirmed with Link: Roster Cuts Thread - Etem waived (claimed by ANA)
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Yep...that's my issue...the steady drip-drip of draft picks....a fifth piddled away in the Kassian deal...a sixth in the Etem trade....a second for Vey (in the minors); a third for Pedan (in the minors)...I realize they're only late picks, but dammit the Canucks picked up Ben Hutton and Kevin Bieksa in the fifth round; and Hansen in the 9th round...you just never know.
Almost *any* draft pick is a long shot to make the NHL. I think one of the biggest misconceptions around here is that there is some massive difference in draft picks by round. You're talking about maybe a 25% chance at a decent player with a 2nd round pick, going down to like a 15% chance with a 6th round pick. As I recall, the probability drops sharply mid first round and then kinda slowly goes down from there. There is probably less difference between a typical 3rd rounder and a 6th rounder than there is between #3 overall and #13 overall.
The point is, whether it's a 4th or a 6th or a 2nd, the more draft picks you have the better. Benning is constantly shooting himself in the foot by tossing away these picks because oh well it's only a 6th rounder. But being as bad as we were last year and having FEWER draft picks than the NHL gives you every season is going to make things real tough.
Pip
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Agreed, and for a team in our position, accumulating as many picks as possible should be a priority. Some help now is not near as important as trying to acquire players that will be part of tomorrow's team (and core).
In isolation I wouldn't even consider this a big deal, but it's just part of a trend of trading picks when we should be stockpiling them.
Sure but that requires you to bat well above the NHL average. I am unaware of any GM or scouting staff that can do that consistently. Even Nonis found 3 hits in 2004 then proceeded to draft like a drunk sailor in 2005, 2006, and 2007. A lot of drafting is luck and volume of picks, not acumen.
And we have definitely not seen that here. Plus it is a difficult task to pick through the scrap bins of other NHL teams and find a gem that they have somehow missed. Seems easier to keep a higher volume of picks to increase your chances of finding hits in the draft rather than through other teams rejects. Hence why 'draft and develop' is such a popular philosophy around the league.
To be completely honest, I think the Canucks direction is to build for future. But have to try everything they can to perhaps have a Cinderella run for the Sedins.
Because Aquaman wants it.
Because Aquaman wants it.
Why do people complain about losing fringe assets that are put on waivers all the time? We can just as easily claim another player just like him.
Then the same people who complain about putting a guy like Stetcher in minors saying it sends the wrong message to the team... but when we do it with a guy like Etem, they get all upset because it's a lost asset.
Benning likely let people know that Etem was available, and when there were no teams interested he waived him and kept Skille, which sends the correct message to the team.
Etem has essentially zero trade value. In the next few weeks there will probably be a dozen or so more players just like him or better made available that we can pick up if it means that much.
Losing Hamhuis for nothing is bad asset management... losing Etem for nothing is not.
Then the same people who complain about putting a guy like Stetcher in minors saying it sends the wrong message to the team... but when we do it with a guy like Etem, they get all upset because it's a lost asset.
Benning likely let people know that Etem was available, and when there were no teams interested he waived him and kept Skille, which sends the correct message to the team.
Etem has essentially zero trade value. In the next few weeks there will probably be a dozen or so more players just like him or better made available that we can pick up if it means that much.
Losing Hamhuis for nothing is bad asset management... losing Etem for nothing is not.
Sounds like most are more upset about losing the pick we traded. Again most not all. I don't mind any of it, I was definitely on the waive him band wagon, but it is a bit of the thousand paper cuts.
vadim sharifijanov
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who cares? it's just a 6th rounder. there is a very small chance that a 6th rounder ever cracks an NHL roster. no big loss.
who cares? it's just a 3rd rounder. the average 3rd rounders plays around 100 NHL games as a call up. no big loss.
who cares? it's just a 2nd rounder. you can find former 2nd rounders on waivers all the time. no big loss.
who cares? it's just the 10th overall pick. you know who were some 10th overall picks? drake berehowsky, nolan baumgartner, brad ference, cody hodgson. we had all those guys and they sucked. no big loss.
who cares? it's just a 3rd rounder. the average 3rd rounders plays around 100 NHL games as a call up. no big loss.
who cares? it's just a 2nd rounder. you can find former 2nd rounders on waivers all the time. no big loss.
who cares? it's just the 10th overall pick. you know who were some 10th overall picks? drake berehowsky, nolan baumgartner, brad ference, cody hodgson. we had all those guys and they sucked. no big loss.
biturbo19
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I do think we're now at a point where we don't have the roster room to really putter around with these pick for "reclamation project" types anymore. Etem as a halfway semi-successful reclamation project not cracking the roster and going away on waivers i think illustrates that. We've finally got some internal push starting to happen. Gaunce legitimately earning a place on the roster for instance. We're still kind of on the fringes of that though - up front at least. There's not any apparently 2nd wave behind Gaunce right now, but we'll see how the season goes for some guys in Utica.
At this point, yeah...acquiring more picks should start to become the focus. Even late ones.
There are still practical limits to how many picks you can horde in a real draft and develop scenario though. It's fine to draft half a dozen guys in the 5th/6th/7th rounds in a single draft year - but two years out, you can't afford to invest in developing most of those picks anyway, by offering them one of your 50 contracts. So you're culling the herd substantially and most of those picks aren't going to ever be developed in your organization anyway. It is useful in that you get that 2 year window to evaluate progress and you've got more "options" in which projects are looking the most promising (thus marginally better odds of actually finding something worthwhile). But most of those picks are still going to be cast aside in a year or two anyway...even though they are younger than a reclamation project like Etem.
You just can't really hoard and develop a eleventy-billion late round flyers at once the way many fans seem to want and expect from this "rebuilding" organization.
AwesomeInTheory
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Uhm, excuse me, but Nolan Baumgartner was responsible for Sami Salo becoming the player that he is and was the straw that stirred the drink for the Canucks offense when he was here.
You're wrong. According to Scott Cullen of TSN (in summer of 2015), there is a 100% chance of a #3 overall pick playing 100 games in the NHL and 76.2% of becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 D. The 13th overall pick has 66.7% of playing 100 games in the NHL and 38.1% of becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 D. So if we are to generalize here, over 7 out of 10 3rd overall picks would become a top 6 forward or top 4 D while less than 4 out of 10 13th overall picks would become a top 6 forward or top 4 D. The chances of drafting a top 6 forward or top 4 D with the 3rd overall pick is like double that of the chances of drafting a top 6 forward or top 4 D with the 13th overall pick.
6th round picks basically have over 91% chance not becoming an NHL regular (350+ NHL games) and less than 16% chance of playing 100 games. 2nd round picks have wide percentage swings but it's about an 80% chance of not becoming an NHL regular and about a 30% chance of playing over 100 games. The key maybe that on average there is a better than 10% chance a 2nd round pick would become a top 6 forward or top 4 D while a 6th round pick is 2.5 to 4.4%. If we are to generalize, 1 in 10 2nd round picks would become a top 6 forward or top 4 D, while less than 1 in 25 6th round picks would become a top 6 forward or top 4 D.
In reality, 2nd round picks are valued because they are boom or bust picks. There is a 1 in 4-5 chance of drafting a player who plays between 100-350 NHL games with 1 in 10 chance of drafting a player who develops into a top 6 forward or top 4 D. 6th round picks, on the other hand, are really a low percentage play if you are to go with the odds.
vadim sharifijanov
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Uhm, excuse me, but Nolan Baumgartner was responsible for Sami Salo becoming the player that he is and was the straw that stirred the drink for the Canucks offense when he was here.
don't forget the elite mentorship on the farm /sarc
AwesomeInTheory
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Some say Nolan Baumgartner and not Alain Vigneault was the one who made Kevin Bieksa into the player he is today.
DCantheDDad
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