Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXII

[Edge]

Fortunately, the information from Carpinello suggests that his recent points surge has re-affirmed his value being higher than Grabner’s. My belief remains that Zuccarello’s return will either be a 1st and a Rykov-level prospect, or a 2nd and an Addison-type of prospect.

I have to tell you, I really don't think these guys have such wild fluctuations in their values. I know it makes it sound exciting, but it's not like the stock exchange. At least it's never been in my experience.

 

[Ola]

I have to tell you, I really don't think these guys have such wild fluctuations in their values. I know it makes it sound exciting, but it's not like the stock exchange. At least it's never been in my experience.

Yeah, its not like a coach that is asked about a player goes and check the game-log at espn.com. You have the negotiation part between the general managers, that is a bit of a 'game' at times and simply a highest bidder procedure at other times. Of course recent stats can have an impact.

But lets say AV coaches another team in the NHL next year and is asked about whether Mike Hoffman would be an interesting addition -- on what would AV base his opinion on Hoffman on? He would of course try to get an updated view on were he is at in general, injuries and form and what not, but so much would be seen against the background of that POs series a few years earlier when Hoffman pretty much alone destroyed AVs team. Does it matter if he have 12 or 16 pts in his last 20 games?

That is one part. Another big part is how you envision a guy to fit in on your team. Maybe you want to light a fire under a group of players, and you want to bring in like a Leo Komarov or someone like that. Or you don't want to disrupt something, then you might be very careful to bring in a bigger personality. When Boston got Nash I am sure it played a big part that he was so established as a team guy, someone that for example team Canada coaches always raved about because he would just assume whatever duties he were assigned without a fuzz, and so forth.

From my POV, Zucc is a perfect add from an on-ice perspective. Many more talented forwards would be pretty lost if they were like put on a 4th line, Zucc is the opposite. You can more or less assign him any role and he can do an OK job at it. He can be the one guy who takes the most defensive responsibility on his line, he can be the guy that works the boards in the attacking zone, he can be the set up guy and even more of a finisher. Off the ice I think he has a reputation in the inner circles of the NHL that actually differs a bit from what many fans would bet at. I know that he can be lazy at certain drills during practice etc. Then he will be more focused and really really competitive in other drills. He creates a bit of tension, I think he does it in part to motivate himself. When he gets eyes on him he motivates himself more. I remember when Torts was first asked about Zucc and he smiled, thought for a few seconds, and than said that he was just different. I didn't understand it at all back then, thought it was just more about Zucc being shy and stuff -- but after hearing smaller tidbits here and there for over a decade my picture differs pretty much from that.

 

[Savant]

Oh thanks. It’s not like I mentioned the hold out or anything.

Look, I’m not advocating trading Zibanejad tomorrow, but like every other player on that team in that age group, it needs to be considered. We mentioned earlier in the thread that what Gorton does today is more about 2021 than right now. Zib will likely still be a good player in 3 years, but in 5? It’s a strong possibility we will be dealing with needing to replace him right at the height of our window.

I understand what you are saying, I just strongly disagree with it. In 3 years, Zibanejad is still under 30. 5 years he is in the tail end of his prime. I'm not trading that for a player who Might be as good. It's bad asset management. As I said I am only moving Zibanejad to fix the defense. No other move for him makes sense. No point to move him for another offensive player who isn't guaranteed to be as good as him.

 

[Edge]

Yeah, its not like a coach that is asked about a player goes and check the game-log at espn.com. You have the negotiation part between the general managers, that is a bit of a 'game' at times and simply a highest bidder procedure at other times. Of course recent stats can have an impact.

But lets say AV coaches another team in the NHL next year and is asked about whether Mike Hoffman would be an interesting addition -- on what would AV base his opinion on Hoffman on? He would of course try to get an updated view on were he is at in general, injuries and form and what not, but so much would be seen against the background of that POs series a few years earlier when Hoffman pretty much alone destroyed AVs team. Does it matter if he have 12 or 16 pts in his last 20 games?

That is one part. Another big part is how you envision a guy to fit in on your team. Maybe you want to light a fire under a group of players, and you want to bring in like a Leo Komarov or someone like that. Or you don't want to disrupt something, then you might be very careful to bring in a bigger personality. When Boston got Nash I am sure it played a big part that he was so established as a team guy, someone that for example team Canada coaches always raved about because he would just assume whatever duties he were assigned without a fuzz, and so forth.

From my POV, Zucc is a perfect add from an on-ice perspective. Many more talented forwards would be pretty lost if they were like put on a 4th line, Zucc is the opposite. You can more or less assign him any role and he can do an OK job at it. He can be the one guy who takes the most defensive responsibility on his line, he can be the guy that works the boards in the attacking zone, he can be the set up guy and even more of a finisher. Off the ice I think he has a reputation in the inner circles of the NHL that actually differs a bit from what many fans would bet at. I know that he can be lazy at certain drills during practice etc. Then he will be more focused and really really competitive in other drills. He creates a bit of tension, I think he does it in part to motivate himself. When he gets eyes on him he motivates himself more. I remember when Torts was first asked about Zucc and he smiled, thought for a few seconds, and than said that he was just different. I didn't understand it at all back then, thought it was just more about Zucc being shy and stuff -- but after hearing smaller tidbits here and there for over a decade my picture differs pretty much from that.

For all the talk about Zucc's production, and a lot of it was understandable, the guy started the season pretty close to his career average, then got sidelines with an injury and the other topics we've discussed, and now he's doing well again and just about producing at this career average.

Whatever his value is might fluctuate a little, but I think the biggest change might be to the number of teams looking at him and considering him. But I don't know if even that was so dramatic that it changed the baseline of what any return for him is going to be.

I think it might have slight variations on which teams might be willing to bid --- aka the potential difference of a couple of slots in the draft, and maybe a prospect the Rangers prefer over what another team is offering.

But, for example, I don't think it changes a first and an B prospect to a second and a C prospect.

So, if the price was always a second and a C prospect, it's just a matter of where that pick might be or who that C prospect might be.

But I think some people have it in their heads that we're talking about multiple levels of difference, and I don't really see that based on what I've observed over the years.

 

[Tawnos]

I understand what you are saying, I just strongly disagree with it. In 3 years, Zibanejad is still under 30. 5 years he is in the tail end of his prime. I'm not trading that for a player who Might be as good. It's bad asset management. As I said I am only moving Zibanejad to fix the defense. No other move for him makes sense. No point to move him for another offensive player who isn't guaranteed to be as good as him.

Risk =/= Bad asset management

Honestly, I hate that phrase. It's overused, and often mis-used... like here.

 

[Savant]

Risk =/= Bad asset management

Honestly, I hate that phrase. It's overused, and often mis-used... like here.

It's very bad asset management. And in this case its also risky. Zibanejad is the only piece the Rangers have that can get them a player to fix their defense, without including the "future" (draft picks, ELC players). If you are moving that asset in a way that makes the team worse, ignoring moving that asset in a way it makes the team better, then it's bad asset management. You are proposing a trade for magic beans.

 

[Riche16]

Oh thanks. It’s not like I mentioned the hold out or anything.

Look, I’m not advocating trading Zibanejad tomorrow, but like every other player on that team in that age group, it needs to be considered. We mentioned earlier in the thread that what Gorton does today is more about 2021 than right now. Zib will likely still be a good player in 3 years, but in 5? It’s a strong possibility we will be dealing with needing to replace him right at the height of our window.

But on that contract it’s easily done... and he looks better and better every game. I guess my point is that unless someone gives us something we can NOT say no to, he’s someone I keep and say goes for next TD, and then the one after.

 

[Riche16]

I have to tell you, I really don't think these guys have such wild fluctuations in their values. I know it makes it sound exciting, but it's not like the stock exchange. At least it's never been in my experience.

I don’t have your experience at all but this recent resurgence is probably a testament to why your point is more than valid.

Players have peaks and valleys as teams do... the regression (or progression in Zucc’s case) to the mean is what counts.

His value to those watching game to game may have fallen and is now rising... but to those in the hockey world, it never dropped significantly so it didn’t need to rise.

Obviously this is a general view and doesn’t take injury or age into consideration but the point remains.

 

[rangers1314]

HFD plays 4 games during the Rangers winter break. I assume Lindgren & Boo get sent down to play in those games. Anyone else? Maybe Georgie?

 

[Tawnos]

It's very bad asset management. And in this case its also risky. Zibanejad is the only piece the Rangers have that can get them a player to fix their defense, without including the "future" (draft picks, ELC players). If you are moving that asset in a way that makes the team worse, ignoring moving that asset in a way it makes the team better, then it's bad asset management. You are proposing a trade for magic beans.

Yes, I understand what futures are. Are you envisioning a Johansen for Jones type of trade? Because guess what? Jones was essentially a future too. He was in his D+3. Necas is in his D+2.

I did say Necas+ and I meant that plus to be significant.

Bad asset management isn’t trading players for good value, even if that value is in futures. Bad asset management is trading players for poor value or losing them for no value.

 

[Thirty One]

HFD plays 4 games during the Rangers winter break. I assume Lindgren & Boo get sent down to play in those games. Anyone else? Maybe Georgie?

I would guess all three. And maybe Chytil for a game or two?

 

[Off Sides]

I'm not too keen on them trading Zbad unless it's for a prospect or pick that has near the ceiling of a Dahlen, Matthews type level. Not saying it would require the 1st overall but pretty darn close to a pick that can provide a similar prospect ceiling to a 1st overall for me to be all that interested in moving him.

In some drafts that is limited to pick 1 and 2, in others similar prospect ceiling can be found a bit later.

 

[Anthony5967]

I would guess all three. And maybe Chytil for a game or two?

Howden wouldn't be a bad idea, as well. Although, he seems to need a break, in general. He looks slow, which is understandable for a kid his age. Sometimes they hit a wall.

 

[Anthony5967]

I don't think any of you have to worry about Zibanejad going anywhere, and I am not even sure why it is being discussed. That trade and deal look absolutely incredible right now. Nobody is going to pony up his worth, therefore, I have no problem watching him rip apart other teams out there. He has turned the corner, in my opinion.

 

[Don Chytil]

I'm not too keen on them trading Zbad unless it's for a prospect or pick that has near the ceiling of a Dahlen, Matthews type level. Not saying it would require the 1st overall but pretty darn close to a pick that can provide a similar prospect ceiling to a 1st overall for me to be all that interested in moving him.

In some drafts that is limited to pick 1 and 2, in others similar prospect ceiling can be found a bit later.

I agree with this on Zibanejad, the problem being that those players rarely get moved. Only one I can currently think of that may be available for a piece of Zib's caliber.. Makar?

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

HFD plays 4 games during the Rangers winter break. I assume Lindgren & Boo get sent down to play in those games. Anyone else? Maybe Georgie?

Love to see Howden go down for a bit. Georgiev too. Bring Tokarski up.

 

[rangers1314]

Love to see Howden go down for a bit. Georgiev too. Bring Tokarski up.

I could see Howden, but like mentioned above I think he may be better served actually getting a break than playing an extra 4 games.

 

[Avery16]

Who?

Justin Bailey (b.1995) Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Justin Bailey (b.1995) Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

I mean, yeah, but I’m not sure why I should care that the Rangers didn’t trade for him

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I could see Howden, but like mentioned above I think he may be better served actually getting a break than playing an extra 4 games.

Fair. So let him play 2 of the 4. Although, I wouldn't be opposed to staying down there for a bit.

 

[Savant]

Yes, I understand what futures are. Are you envisioning a Johansen for Jones type of trade? Because guess what? Jones was essentially a future too. He was in his D+3. Necas is in his D+2.

I did say Necas+ and I meant that plus to be significant.

Bad asset management isn’t trading players for good value, even if that value is in futures. Bad asset management is trading players for poor value or losing them for no value.

Jones had played 200 NHL games when he was traded. I don't think Necas has played more than 10 NHL games yet.

Yes I feel the Jones deal should be a template are if Zibanejad is moved, but you are really underselling Jones with your comparison.

If Carolina moves Necas, you aren't getting a huge plus, but Necas is the centerpiece.

Bad asset management is misusing your assets, however its dressed up

 

[Off Sides]

I agree with this on Zibanejad, the problem being that those players rarely get moved. Only one I can currently think of that may be available for a piece of Zib's caliber.. Makar?

I agree, it's not that I think it's possible, more so what I'd want returned to even consider it. Zbad has term left, is on a good deal, is youngish and a very good player, his impending clause does not strike fear into me. I kind of think he could even be extended after this contract, of course that depends on like a hundred factors between now and then.

Not for Zbad, but that Kessel trade for 2 first that just happened to turn out to be something like those potential ceiling, was a long time ago and likely not happening again, although in a way I do question the Edmonton picks that may be in play, I know they are not likely to bottom out, and there is a better chance they improve by trading for good player than get worse, yet their competency has to be somewhat in question even with better players.

 

[Tawnos]

Jones had played 200 NHL games when he was traded. I don't think Necas has played more than 10 NHL games yet.

Yes I feel the Jones deal should be a template are if Zibanejad is moved, but you are really underselling Jones with your comparison.

If Carolina moves Necas, you aren't getting a huge plus, but Necas is the centerpiece.

Bad asset management is misusing your assets, however its dressed up

Look, I'm a nihilist about this stuff. The only thing I care about is that Gorton stays pro-active and explores everything. The details of these things matter less to me than that.

 

[Irishguy42]

Hartford has 4 games during the bye-week/ASG.

Send Chytil/Howden/Lindgren down to play games.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Hartford has 4 games during the bye-week/ASG.

Send Chytil/Howden/Lindgren down to play games.

Rather Chytil and Howden rest for the week. Lindgren can go back down. Send Chytil and Howden to AHL when the Ranger's season is over.