Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part XV: Trading up or down? - Mod Warning post #450

[GoAwayPanarin]

TurgePurge has a new burner account to spew nonsense from. Just ignore it

I thought it was AK27 but I was wrong.

Clearly NPL, should have known.

 

[Waivers]

I would be all in for taking Wahlstrom over Dobson. This is not a knock on Dobson, but I would like to see us invest in a player who is more of a game changer, that type of potential.

 

[silverfish]

I think there's more there with Domi being unhappy that Chayaka will be looking to improve the team

Wait, Domi is mad that Chayka is trying to make the team better?

 

[Ola]

The day with Hall/Larsson, Weber/Subban, and Stamkos signing was insane.

Yeah lol remove that day and almost nothing happend all season...

My point is just, we talk about like what Gorts could get for X or if Y is more valuable than Z and so forth.

To get any kind of decent return — of course we could start to give assets away — there need to be a market. When 12 months passes with like 3 hockey trades and some minor stuff it’s pretty obvious that NHL GMs aren’t actively trying to get things done. To even contemplate moving for a player like Zucc something extra must be going on. Say that 2-3 teams would bother to call in, I am not even sure you get a meaningful market.

It tends to be long process. Teams closing in on each other over months. On and off type of discussions. Before actually getting to the point of talking who you can get the ‘most’ for, there must be a market to start with.

Just as NHL GMs don’t send out offer sheets — making trades is something that they lately only have done when something really is going on and they are forced to do something.

 

[Webster]

There's no point in trading Zucc to a place he doesn't want to go, I don't see a team giving up valuable assets only to lose him next year when he becomes a UFA. He most likely stays here, just like he said himself.

 

[kovazub94]

I would be all in for taking Wahlstrom over Dobson. This is not a knock on Dobson, but I would like to see us invest in a player who is more of a game changer, that type of potential.

Dobson just dominated Memorial Cup tournament specifically and CHL playoffs in general. How's he not a game changer?

 

[Mac n Gs]

There's no point in trading Zucc to a place he doesn't want to go, I don't see a team giving up valuable assets only to lose him next year when he becomes a UFA. He most likely stays here, just like he said himself.

Holy Christ, we get it, you don’t want to trade Zucc. No one wants to trade him just to trade him. It’s about getting value back and seeing if he fits within this window and if it makes sense to commit long-term money to him.

 

[NYR Viper]

Wait, Domi is mad that Chayka is trying to make the team better?

yeah who wouldn't be?

 

[silverfish]

yeah who wouldn't be?

I'm so confused.

 

[NYR Viper]

I'm so confused.

What I was trying to say:

I don't think Domi is happy in Arizona and he wants a change. I think Arizona will use him as a chip to improve the team and move on.

 

[eco's bones]

Bennett is more valuable than Spooner? You’re talking about the same Bennett that has back to back 26 point seasons, correct?

Him being gritty doesn’t make up for Spooner being twice as good as him production wise.

Look at what Spooner was producing when he was 22 years old. That's where Bennett is now. His offense has been disappointing but he's not a perimeter player and IMO he's capable of more. He's pretty much one stage above being a kid. He's pretty much Buchnevich's age. He's coachable and he's rounded....and cheaper and controllable for another 3 years too. Yeah---he's more valuable IMO and especially to a younger team like the Rangers are now.

 

[silverfish]

What I was trying to say:

I don't think Domi is happy in Arizona and he wants a change. I think Arizona will use him as a chip to improve the team and move on.

Ah. Gotcha.

 

[NYR Viper]

Ah. Gotcha.

It would have helped if I accurately wrote my thoughts

 

[silverfish]

It would have helped if I accurately wrote my thoughts

It's a Friday in between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Who cares about accurate thought writing. You should see some of the emails I've been receiving and sending so far today.

 

[nyr2k2]

There's no point in trading Zucc to a place he doesn't want to go, I don't see a team giving up valuable assets only to lose him next year when he becomes a UFA. He most likely stays here, just like he said himself.

Why do you think a team would not give up a valuable asset for him? Teams give up valuable assets for rentals all the time. At the deadline, they give up valuable assets for guys that could be on the team for like a month. Zuccarello would be a rental that could be used for a full year--or, if the acquiring team was out of contention, they themselves could flip him later in the year.

I have no idea if he's likely to stay or go. Maloney just said yesterday on the interview with the guys here that they didn't really know what would happen with him. Regardless, the idea that no one would give up anything of value for him is likely very misguided.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Domi is cost controlled for the next four years and Zucc needs a new deal after next season. He's 23 years old, has two 40+ point campaigns under his belt.

Who has more value, Buchnevich or Zuccarello?

You're ignoring the point that value is also relevant to the interested parties. Domi has scored 9 goals in back to back seasons. Zucc is the guy that can help put you over the top. Domi isn't.

 

[BringBackLibertys]

So, pretty much exactly what I was saying yesterday about #2OA, confirmed by the GM. Also, in the article it is clear they have no plans to dump Darling, and they only trades they want to make are for "We have some players that have been here a long time. We've gone nine years missing the playoffs. I think if there's some change that needs to be made to change up the mix a little bit, the culture, we're certainly going to look at that.".

I know this isn't a Cane board, but I felt this fit well with what everyone was chatting about yesterday.

Hurricanes likely to 'make some changes,' GM says

 

[silverfish]

There's a deal to be made with Winnipeg for Zucc. Chances are they push for another cup this coming year. It's impossible for them to get most guys because of trade clauses. Maybe that's different now because they're competing, but I can't imagine that Winnipeg is wholly desirable anyway. I mean, I'd live there because I hate myself, but that's me.

Anyway the point is that Zuccarello has no trade protection, and can be dealt to Winnipeg.

 

[silverfish]

You're ignoring the point that value is also relevant to the interested parties. Domi has scored 9 goals in back to back seasons. Zucc is the guy that can help put you over the top. Domi isn't.

Again, I see it both ways.

A team that is competing, like Winnipeg, has use for both Zuccarello and Domi. Zuccarello might put Winnipeg over the top for one year, and Domi allows them four more years of a controlled asset so they can keep some of their guys who are due for UFA years. Zuccarello on the other hand, they lose after one year.

I'm also not so disgruntled by Domi's back to back 9 goals. He still drives play in the correct direction, and if his actual sh% falls in line with his expected, he's going to score much more than 9 goals. Nothing would surprise me less than Domi putting up 15-20 goals next season along with the 35 assists he's proven to be good for.

Value doesn't exist in a vacuum, you're right, but there are many factors here besides Domi shooting an improbably low %.

I'd wager Domi has somewhere at, near, or slightly more or less value than Buch on the trade market right now. How do you value Buch?

I also think you're underrating Domi by saying that Zucc can be the guy that puts you over the top, but Domi isn't. Domi had a higher 5v5 p/60 than Zucc did last season by 0.08, and Zucc had him all situations by 0.09. I understand that 9 goals is an ugly number, but we also need to make sure that we're not blinded by Sh%.

 

[Waivers]

Dobson just dominated Memorial Cup tournament specifically and CHL playoffs in general. How's he not a game changer?

His shot generation in particular is elite. Per Tobias Pettersson (Currently writing for Blueshirt Banter, among other places):
"Let me tell you just how bonkers Wahlströms shot generation is.
His SOG/GP this season in USHL was 4.92, the second highest in the League was at 4.07.
in 16/17 Eeli Tolvanen was the leader in SOG/GP with 4.73, #2 was at 4.00
in 15/16 Kieffer Bellows was the leader with 4.83, #2 had 4.08 and Clayton Keller was 3rd with 4.00
in 14/15 Chris Wilkie had 5.12 (not sure who he is or how he did it, but he was over 18 when the season started).
Behind him you had guys like Kyle Connor (4.57), Brock Boeser (4.23), Auston Matthews (4.08) and Matthew Tkachuk (4)
in 13/14 two 19 year olds were 1 and 3 with Dylan Larkin 2nd at 4.38 and Jack Eichel 7th at 3.96
So yeah, Oliver Wahlströms shot generation is ELITE and that is what truly separates him from Farabee for me, also his shot is better too."

 

[nyr2k2]

His shot generation in particular is elite. Per Tobias Pettersson (Currently writing for Blueshirt Banter, among other places):
"Let me tell you just how bonkers Wahlströms shot generation is.
His SOG/GP this season in USHL was 4.92, the second highest in the League was at 4.07.
in 16/17 Eeli Tolvanen was the leader in SOG/GP with 4.73, #2 was at 4.00
in 15/16 Kieffer Bellows was the leader with 4.83, #2 had 4.08 and Clayton Keller was 3rd with 4.00
in 14/15 Chris Wilkie had 5.12 (not sure who he is or how he did it, but he was over 18 when the season started).
Behind him you had guys like Kyle Connor (4.57), Brock Boeser (4.23), Auston Matthews (4.08) and Matthew Tkachuk (4)
in 13/14 two 19 year olds were 1 and 3 with Dylan Larkin 2nd at 4.38 and Jack Eichel 7th at 3.96
So yeah, Oliver Wahlströms shot generation is ELITE and that is what truly separates him from Farabee for me, also his shot is better too."

Also posting here as @ManUtdTobbe.

 

[Ghost of jas]

There's a deal to be made with Winnipeg for Zucc. Chances are they push for another cup this coming year. It's impossible for them to get most guys because of trade clauses. Maybe that's different now because they're competing, but I can't imagine that Winnipeg is wholly desirable anyway. I mean, I'd live there because I hate myself, but that's me.

Anyway the point is that Zuccarello has no trade protection, and can be dealt to Winnipeg.

This is why you are such an awesome poster.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Again, I see it both ways.

A team that is competing, like Winnipeg, has use for both Zuccarello and Domi. Zuccarello might put Winnipeg over the top for one year, and Domi allows them four more years of a controlled asset so they can keep some of their guys who are due for UFA years. Zuccarello on the other hand, they lose after one year.

I'm also not so disgruntled by Domi's back to back 9 goals. He still drives play in the correct direction, and if his actual sh% falls in line with his expected, he's going to score much more than 9 goals. Nothing would surprise me less than Domi putting up 15-20 goals next season along with the 35 assists he's proven to be good for.

Value doesn't exist in a vacuum, you're right, but there are many factors here besides Domi shooting an improbably low %.

I'd wager Domi has somewhere at, near, or slightly more or less value than Buch on the trade market right now. How do you value Buch?

I also think you're underrating Domi by saying that Zucc can be the guy that puts you over the top, but Domi isn't. Domi had a higher 5v5 p/60 than Zucc did last season by 0.08, and Zucc had him all situations by 0.09. I understand that 9 goals is an ugly number, but we also need to make sure that we're not blinded by Sh%.

I get where you're coming from and honestly, it really comes down to the GM. Winnipeg is a good example.

Regarding Buch, I'd say Buch would cost more in a trade than Domi. Buch is happy in NY, he doesn't want to be moved (as far we we know) and there is no apparent urge from management to trade him (again, as far as we know). It is always going to take more to acquire the asset that someone doesn't want to move vs. the asset that someone either does want to move or needs to move. I don't think Chayka wants to move Domi but I also don't think he wants to keep around someone who doesn't want to be there.

I would generally agree that Domi has more value than a late 1st. However, at the same time, he may not. Anytime you start adding in external factors such as someone being not happy, the value can really go all over the board. That is the only reason I am saying that it isn't necessarily people being homers, I think its more wishful thinking in a buy low situation for a guy that Arizona will like have to move at some point. A lot of posters (I don't know if you do or not to be honest) down play the importance of locker room chemistry and guys being moved because they weren't a good fit culturally. Look at PK Subban. I love the guy. One of my favorite players in the league. I would love to watch him play for the Rangers. But, he is a star player, now available for a second time in a few years. A team like Nashville wouldn't be looking to move him if something wasn't up. Chemistry and cohesion are important and if Domi is unhappy, Chayka may take a hit in value in order to not poison what he has in his locker room.

Zuccarello is a winner. He is a great guy to have around. He is a leader (just from what we know). He has tons of playoff experience. To a team that needs to make some noise in the playoffs, that can go a long way and a guy like Zucc can have such a positive impact on a young core.

 

[silverfish]

This is why you are such an awesome poster.

Thank you for perpetuating my self-loathing.

I get where you're coming from and honestly, it really comes down to the GM. Winnipeg is a good example.

Regarding Buch, I'd say Buch would cost more in a trade than Domi. Buch is happy in NY, he doesn't want to be moved (as far we we know) and there is no apparent urge from management to trade him (again, as far as we know). It is always going to take more to acquire the asset that someone doesn't want to move vs. the asset that someone either does want to move or needs to move. I don't think Chayka wants to move Domi but I also don't think he wants to keep around someone who doesn't want to be there.

I would generally agree that Domi has more value than a late 1st. However, at the same time, he may not. Anytime you start adding in external factors such as someone being not happy, the value can really go all over the board. That is the only reason I am saying that it isn't necessarily people being homers, I think its more wishful thinking in a buy low situation for a guy that Arizona will like have to move at some point. A lot of posters (I don't know if you do or not to be honest) down play the importance of locker room chemistry and guys being moved because they weren't a good fit culturally. Look at PK Subban. I love the guy. One of my favorite players in the league. I would love to watch him play for the Rangers. But, he is a star player, now available for a second time in a few years. A team like Nashville wouldn't be looking to move him if something wasn't up. Chemistry and cohesion are important and if Domi is unhappy, Chayka may take a hit in value in order to not poison what he has in his locker room.

I haven't really seen any of the smoke surrounding Domi being unhappy, or Chayka willing to listen on him. Actually, that's not true. I've heard the Chayka stuff but I don't believe it for a second. Everything we know about Chayka makes me believe he's not going to sell low on Domi. Maybe it's true that Domi is hurting team chemistry, I have no idea. But, I'd suspect you see Chayka wait and see if Domi's actual goals round closer to his expected, and makes a much bigger play 6 months from now rather than at the draft.

And re: PK... well, I can say a lot about that but it'll get OT, so I won't. But again, label me unconvinced that this is a chemistry thing and more that it's a he makes $9m AAV and Josi is a UFA soon thing.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

A substantial amount of Domi's value is in the unknown.

I think he's probably more valuable than Zucc straight up strictly for that and years of control left, but as others have said, for a contender that may not be the case.

For a team like the Rangers, I'd much rather have Domi.